As Andy Reid gets his Kansas City Chiefs ready for Super Bowl LIV, he should also be getting ready to get a gold jacket. With a win, there’s no question that Reid is a lock for the Hall of Fame. But even without it, Reid has now done enough that he will one day wind up in Canton.

How do you get to the Pro Football Hall of Fame as a head coach? Here’s a helpful flow chart.

Did you win 3 rings? If so, proceed to Canton (9)

If you win three championships as a head coach in the NFL, you are going to make the Hall of Fame. There are only 10 men who can make that claim, and nine of them are already enshrined in Canton: George Halas, Curly Lambeau, Paul Brown, Chuck Noll, Joe Gibbs, Weeb Ewbank, Vince Lombardi, Bill Walsh, and Guy Chamberlin. The 10th, of course, is Bill Belichick, who will at some point retire and then be a first ballot inductee.

Did you win 2 rings plus have a third appearance? If so, proceed to Canton (3)

Two of the best head coaches ever — Don Shula and Tom Landry — fall into this category. Both are also in the top four in all-time wins. The third is Bill Parcells, who also took two different teams, and three different quarterbacks, to the Super Bowl. [continue reading…]

In week 6, the Cowboys traveled to MetLife Stadium to face the Jets in what looked to be an easy win for Dallas. It was not: Sam Darnold injected some much needed offense into a lifeless Jets team, highlighted by a 92-yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson. New York played well, but Dallas did have a chance to steal a come-from-behind victory. To do that, however, it would have required Jason Garrett to maximize his team’s win probability with thoughtful end-game strategy. Instead, Garrett made two key blunders in the 4th quarter of Sunday’s game, lowering the Cowboys chances of completing a comeback.

Seven years ago, I wrote that when trailing by 15 points midway through the fourth quarter, a team that scores a touchdown should go for two. Midway through the fourth quarter, Dallas trailed the Jets by 12 points — which, math experts may quickly realize, is a 15-point lead minus one field goal. Therefore, the same logic applies, and you’ll see why in a moment.

Ezekiel Elliott rushed for a touchdown with 6:36 remaining, and this is when the Cowboys should have gone for two. And this is not Monday morning quarterbacking: I tweeted as such in real time. Instead, Dallas sent out the kicker and cut the lead to 5 points. The Jets responded with a field goal, which highlighted the problem.

That made it a 8-point game, which is why it was a mistake to not go for two earlier. Just like when you score a touchdown down by 15, you want to go for two to make it either a 7-point game or a 9-point game. When trailing by 15, you need to score two touchdowns and convert a two-point conversion. If you convert the two-point conversion, it doesn’t matter whether you go for two after the first touchdown or the second touchdown (although, of course, only if you go for it the first time can you try to win the game with a 2-point attempt after the second touchdown). If you miss the two point conversion attempt, however, it makes a very big difference.

Dallas was ignorant of the situation: by going for 1, the Cowboys did not know that they would go on to fail on their two-point conversion attempt. Here’s what actually happened: after the Jets kicked a field goal, Dallas took over with 3:23 remaining, and casually drove down the field, scoring with 47 seconds left. The Cowboys then missed the 2-point conversion play, effectively ending the game (more on this in a minute). [continue reading…]

Mike Leach has been at the front of the passing revolution in football circles for three decades.  He worked with Hal Mumme at Iowa Wesleyan in 1989, and that’s where the two began creating the Air Raid offense. Together they moved on to Valdosta State in Georgia, and then up to major college football when they moved to Kentucky in 1997.   There, Leach mentored a future number one overall draft pick; two years later, he moved to Oklahoma and helped the Sooners win a national title before embarking on a decade-long stint in Lubbock as head coach of the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  And since 2012, Leach has been the head coach at Washington State.

The table below shows all of Leach’s starting quarterbacks during his time in major college football: [continue reading…]

In 2012, the New Orleans Saints led the Cowboys, 31-24, with 2:46 remaining and Dallas holding just two timeouts. Drew Brees completed a pass to Jimmy Graham for the first down, and the Saints looked to be in great shape.

New Orleans still had to run another play before the 2 minute warning, however, and with 2:04 remaining, the Saints ran Mark Ingram off left tackle.  He lost a yard and the two minute warning stopped the clock.  New Orleans ran again on second down, and the Cowboys called their second timeout.  On third and long, Brees completed a pass short of the sticks, and the Cowboys called their final timeout.  After a punt, the Cowboys took over with 1:29 remaining and no timeouts, and needing 64 yards for a touchdown.  That was all Tony Romo, always known for his great 4th quarter passing numbers, needed to tie the game: with 21 seconds remaining, he threw a game-tying touchdown pass, and the two teams went to overtime.

Why am I bringing that up today?  Because the Saints should have passed the ball with 2:04 remaining!  When you are that close to the two minute warning, coaches should view that as a free opportunity to pass the ball and pick up a first down.  This happened again on Sunday in an even more egregious situation.  The Ravens scored a touchdown with 2:01 remaining to cut the lead to 33-28.  Baltimore then brilliantly chose to do a drop kick onside kick; the Chiefs correctly responded with a fair catch, but that meant no time went off the clock.

So now Kansas City had the ball, with 2:01 remaining, and Baltimore down to just one timeout.  The Chiefs, I remind you, have Patrick Mahomes. There was no downside to passing here other than an interception, and well, that’s not something Mahomes is very likely to do. This is an obvious passing situation, and I said so immediately when the situation arose:

Alas, the Chiefs chose to run the ball twice, and then were forced to pass on 3rd and 9 (which, of course, Mahomes converted because well, he’s Mahomes). But that outcome doesn’t change the bad process.
[continue reading…]

I have written before about the remarkable close-game success that Adam Gase and the Miami Dolphins had from 2016 to 2018. The disparity is remarkable: Miami went 3-19 in games decided by more than 8 points under Gase, the second-worst record in the NFL in non-close games (only the Browns were worse). But in games decided by 8 or fewer points, Miami went 20-6, the best record in the NFL.

So you have a huge split here: under Gase, the Dolphins were outstanding in close games but awful in non-close games. What does that mean? Was Gase an outstanding coach who could win any game as long as the talent level of the two teams were close? Or was Gase an awful coach who just happened to get really lucky? With a 23-25 record, Gase looks like an average coach — so perhaps he’s somewhere in the middle of these two extremes?

First, a quick visual to show how extreme this performance really was. The graph below shows each team over the last three years, and their winning percentage in close games (X-Axis) and non-close games (Y-Axis). A team that was awful in non-close games but great in close games would be at the bottom right of the chart: as you can see, Miami is all alone there. [continue reading…]

Today’s post is the final in a 4-part series that is entirely a re-post from friend of the program Bryan Frye’s site. It is, of course, being republished with his permission and encouragement (as your author takes a small vacation). As regular readers know, Bryan’s fantastic site is always worth a read. You can view all of Bryan’s guest posts here, and follow him on twitter @LaverneusDingle. What follows are the GridFe’s words, with no editing from Chase.

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Hall of Fame Coaches

There are two primary reasons coaches become legends: they won or they influenced. Some coaches are known for winning championships. Others are famous for their innovations. A few have the distinction of falling in both categories. How we perceive head coaches often depends not just on what they did but how they did what they did. Don Coryell is rightly regarded as one of the league’s greatest offensive minds – but he didn’t win enough. Marty Schottenheimer is one of just seven coaches with more than 200 wins – but he never won a championship. George Seifert won two Super Bowls, both in dominating fashion – but he inherited a steamroller of a team. Jimmy Johnson took over a team in the doldrums, won two Super Bowls, and laid the foundation for his successor to win another – but he didn’t coach for long enough. Because of the sometimes arbitrary qualifications we expect coaches to meet, or because we unconsciously have the unrealistic expectation of every good coach to be the next Paul Brown in order to meet the definition of greatness, it can be difficult for any but the best and brightest to stand out. The GridFe Hall of Fame voting committee did our best to weigh all the information available to us in order to recognize the most deserving coaches. Ultimately, we inducted twelve into the inaugural class.⁹⁷

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George Halas (1920-1967)
Decatur Staleys/Chicago Bears
318-148-31 Record; 6 Title Wins; 3 Title Losses; 5 GridFe Genius Awards

Papa Bear was the founder and principle owner of the Chicago Bears (erstwhile Decatur Staleys) and was their head coach for 40 seasons and over 500 games.⁹⁸ His squads won NFL championships in four different decades, with his first and last titles coming 42 years apart. In the days before the league cared about parity, Halas’s Monsters of the Midway experienced sustained dominance, with six titles, three more title losses, and 34 winning seasons and rosters stacked with the legends of yesteryear. He presided over dominant defenses and innovative offenses. In particular, his work with Clark Shaughnessey to bring the potent T Formation offense to the NFL marked a sea change in the way teams viewed quarterbacks. Halas introduced the offense in style in a 73-0 trouncing of Washington in the 1940 title game. His legacy includes a coaching tree with successful head coaches George Allen, Dick Vermeil, and Marv Levy, as well as offensive mastermind Ted Marchibroda. [continue reading…]

There are 9 head coaches who have won exactly 2 Super Bowls. Four of them are already in the Hall of Fame: Lombardi (who also won 3 additional championships before the Super Bowl era), Shula (the career leader in wins), Landry (who won 250 regular season games and 20 playoff games) and Parcells (who had a history of making bad teams good: he reached the playoffs with 4 teams, the conference championship game with 3 teams, and the Super Bowl with 2 teams).

The other 5 are all potential HOF candidates.  John Turney recently wrote a good review of them, which inspired today’s post.  Here is the full list, with the HOF coaches marked by a ‘+’ sign next to their name.

How would you rank them?  Here are, as best as I can see, the strongest arguments for each one: [continue reading…]

16 seasons ago, the Rooney Rule was instituted in the NFL. At the time there were just two African American head coaches in the NFL: Tony Dungy of the Colts and his former assistant, Herm Edwards of the Jets.

Today, there are… just three African American head coaches in the NFL.  Mike Tomlin, hired by the Steelers in 2007, Anthony Lynn, hired by the Chargers in ’17, and newly-hired Brian Flores, who comes to Miami after a stint as the linebackers coach and de facto defensive coordinator/play caller in New England in 2018.

One big reason that Tomlin and Lynn are still around: they went to teams with Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers. Other minority head coaches — and, of course, white coaches — haven’t been nearly so lucky.

There has been a lot written over the last two months about the lack of African American head coaches in the NFL, especially after five were fired in the last few months. This is a complicated topic with a simple reality: African American coaches have been stuck with bad quarterbacks and subsequently fired.

Arizona’s Steve Wilks was fired after one season with Josh Rosen at quarterback, who was the worst statistical passer in 2018. Denver’s Vance Joseph was fired this year after winning 11 games in two seasons in Denver with Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch and Case Keenum as his quarterbacks. Cleveland’s Hue Jackson was finally fired in 2018 on the basis of a 1-31 mark in ’16 and ’17 with Cody Kessler, Josh McCown, and a 21-year-old DeShone Kizer. And in New York, Todd Bowles was fired after four years with the Jets, coaching Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh McCown, Bryce Petty, and a 21-year-old Sam Darnold. [continue reading…]

In late October 2017, I wrote an article about Adam Gase and the Miami Dolphins.  Here was the introduction:

Adam Gase was hired as the Dolphins head coach last year. His tenure with the team has been both successful and underwhelming, which is pretty hard to do. The Dolphins are 14-9 under Gase, tied with the Packers for the 8th-best record in the NFL. It feels hard to imagine, but Miami has a better record than Philadelphia or Denver since 2016, and has as many wins as the Falcons.

On the other hand, Miami has a -77 points differential, which is the 7th-worst in the league. That’s a very stark difference: most teams have records that are proportional to their points differential, but not Miami. Tennessee (11th in record, 20th in points differential) and Houston (14th, 23rd) are the next two biggest outliers in that direction, with winning percentage ranks that are 9 slots better than their points differential ranks; Miami is at +17.5, by being tied for 8th in record and 26th in points differential. The Saints (t-19th; 8th), Jaguars (29th; 19th), and Chargers (t-27th; 18th) are the biggest underachievers by this method.

That article was written following week 8 of the 2017 season, roughly the halfway point of Gase’s tenure with the team.  What happened since?  Miami went from 14-9 with a -77 points differential to 9-16 with a -166 points differential.  In some ways, though, the Dolphins still overachieved: the team ranked 29th in points differential from week 9, 2017 through the end of 2018, and 25th in winning percentage.

Gase was fired in Miami, but his legacy remains a bit complicated.  Miami finished with the 29th-best points differential among the 32 teams during his 3-year tenure, but the 18th-best winning percentage.  Now, you may say it doesn’t matter whether the Dolphins were the 18th best team or the 29th best team — neither is very good.  But I do think that is a large enough distinction that it merits review.

That, of course, is because the New York Jets decided to hire Gase to become the team’s next coach.  And we could look at this two ways: did he coach a terrible team that got lucky to have a few more wins than they should have (in which case Gase should be considered a bad coach), or did he oversee a talent-poor team and coached them up to win more often than they should have (in which case Case should be considered a good coach)?

From 2016 to 2018, Miami went 18-5 in games decided by 7 or fewer points, and 20-6 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.  Both records were comfortably the best in the league.  So, is that sparkling record in close games a positive for Gase — hey, he’s a great coach who wins when the talent level is close! — or a negative for Gase (he’s a terrible coach who is lucky his teams won as often as they did).

Unfortunately for Jets fans, nearly all the research on this subject suggests that a team’s record in close games is not reflective of skill, but of luck.  The Jets have been terrible in close games in recent years, while Gase has been great: you would expect some regression to the mean in either instance, and I would project the Jets to be about .500 in close games during Gase’s tenure.

The bigger cause for concern, then, would be this: Gase went an almost unfathomable 3-19 in games decided by more than 8 points during his time in Miami.

Hue Jackson, Todd Bowles, Sean McDermott, Steve Wilks, and John Harbaugh all saw their teams use first round picks on quarterbacks in the 2018 Draft.  But does drafting Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson increase the security of the long-term future of those coaches?  How long of a leash does a coach have after adding a first round QB?

From 2002 to 2016, ignoring the three current situations ^[1]Carson Wentz was taken in the first round of the 2016 Draft, while Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were taken in the first round of the 2017 Draft. Their head coaches — Doug Pederson, Andy … Continue reading, there were 43 other quarterbacks drafted in the first rounds of those drafts. How long did those 43 coaches last?  As it turns out, most did not last very long.

In four cases — Ken Whisenhunt in 2015 (7 games), Jack Del Rio in 2011 (11), Josh McDaniels in 2010 (12), and Jeff Fisher in 2016 (13) — the head coach didn’t even finish the season! [continue reading…]

There is no tougher award to predict than AP Coach of the Year. On the other hand, that makes it one of the most fun awards to speculate and discuss. Regular readers know that I have been at this game for awhile, with no success at all.

• In 2012, I selected Mike Mularkey as my pick. That turned out be very, very wrong — the Jaguars went 2-14! — but in COTY predicting, it’s win or go home, so swinging for the fences makes sense. Bruce Arians, who went 9-3 as interim head coach of the Colts, won the award for his magical work in transforming a bad Indianapolis team.
• In 2013, I selected Sean Payton; unfortunately for him, an 11-5 record was not enough. That honor instead went to Ron Rivera, whose Panthers went from 7-9 to 12-4, on the back of a dominant defense.
• In 2014, I chose … Jay Gruden. Washington went 4-12. Arians, now in Arizona, won the award for taking a Cardinals that ranked 24th in both yards and yards allowed and barely outscored its opposition to an 11-5 record: Arizona went 6-0 under Carson Palmer, but going 5-3 with Drew Stanton secured the honors for Arians.
• In 2015, I chose Dan Quinn. That was a year too early: Atlanta finished just 8-8 this year before going to the Super Bowl in ’16.  Instead, Rivera won again, as Carolina went from 7-8-1 to 15-1.
• In 2016, I went with Bill O’Brien as my pick; he responded with his third straight 9-7 season. I was in the wrong state of mind but the right state: Cowboys coach Jason Garrett won the award, after Dallas vaulted from 4-12 to 13-3.
• Last year, I didn’t write an article about my picks, but I leaned towards Chargers coach Anthony Lynn.  Well, 2017 turned out to be a perfect example of how hard this award is to pick.  Entering the season, Sean McVay was one of five head coaches who had 50-1 odds to win, tied for the longest odds of any coach.  And McVay turned around the Rams from 4-12 to 11-4 before securing a first round bye.  He picked up 35 of 50 votes to win the award.

The reason this award is so hard to pick is because in some ways, every coach is on an even playing field in week 1. The winner of this award is the one who usually exceeds expectations the most, so there is a natural equalizer in place.

That’s not entirely true, of course.  A team needs to have a good season to get the award, and some teams are so low on talent that a good season is a longshot.  Here are the only odds I can currently find on the award for 2018: [continue reading…]

Since Bill Belichick began his reign of terror on the AFC East in 2001, it’s been a rough time to be a Jets, Dolphins, or Bills head coach.  It’s been a rough two decades for Buffalo — Marv Levy was the last Bills coach to win the division back in 1995 — but it hasn’t been much better for New York or Miami. Belichick has won 15 of the 17 division titles since 2001, with Herm Edwards leading the Jets to the division title way back in 2002.

The other man to do it was Tony Sparano, who passed away unexpectedly yesterday. In one of the great turnarounds in NFL history, taking the 1-15 Dolphins from the worst record in football to AFC East champions in one season.

But even Sparano left Miami with a losing record. In fact, since 2001, Dave Wannstedt (31-26) and Todd Bowles (2-1 as interim head coach) are the only Dolphins coaches with winning records. Adam Gase (16-16) is the next most successful Miami head coach since 2001, followed by Nick Saban (15-17), Tony Sparano (29-32), Joe Philbin (24-28), and Cam Cameron (1-15). Along with Bowles, Dan Campbell (5-7) and Jim Bates (3-4) spent time as interim coaches in Miami.

The Bills have had 9 head coaches since 2001: Sean McDermott (9-7) has the only winning record, followed by Rex Ryan (15-16), Doug Marrone (15-17), Mike Mularkey (14-18), Dick Jauron (24-33), Gregg Williams (17-31), and Chan Gailey (16-32); Perry Fewell (3-4) and Anthony Lynn (0-1) also spent time as interim head coaches. [continue reading…]

Yesterday, I looked at coordinators who immediately left Super Bowl champions to become head coaches. Today, I expand on that study by looking at the 50 offensive/defensive coordinators on the 25 Super Bowl champions from 1992 to 2016 and tracking the remainder of their tenures.  Let’s leave Josh McDaniels (2014/2016 Patriots offensive coordinator) out of the mix, since it appears as though he’s doing to be in New England for the foreseeable future.  What about the other 48? When did they finally leave?

Left Immediately (7)

Charlie Weis (2004 NWE OC)
Romeo Crennel (2004 NWE DC)
Mike Martz (1999 STL OC)
Mike Shanahan (1994 SFO OC)
Ray Rhodes (1994 SFO DC)
Norv Turner (1993 DAL OC)
Dave Wannstedt (1992 DAL DC)

In this group, 5 left to become head coaches of other NFL teams, Martz was promoted to Rams HC, and Weis left to become the Notre Dame head coach.

Left After One Additional Year (14)

Matt Patricia (2016 NWE DC)
Rick Dennison (2015 DEN OC)
Wade Phillips (2015 DEN DC)
Dan Quinn (2013 SEA DC)
Jim Caldwell (2012 BAL OC)
Joe Philbin (2010 GNB OC)
Steve Spagnuolo (2007 NYG DC)
Ken Whisenhunt (2005 PIT OC)
Charlie Weis (2003 NWE OC)
Romeo Crennel (2003 NWE DC)
Marvin Lewis (2000 BAL DC)
Peter Giunta (1999 STL DC)
Butch Davis (1993 DAL DC)
Norv Turner (1992 DAL OC)

Eight of these coordinators left to become head coaches after one more season as a coordinator (Patricia, Quinn, Caldwell, Philbin, Spagnuolo, Whisenhunt, Crennel, and Turner). What about the other 6?

• Dennison and Phillips were both let go as part of the coaching change from Gary Kubiak (retired) to Vance Joseph a year after winning the Super Bowl. Both resurfaced on playoff teams in 2017 (Bills and Rams).
• Weis, as mentioned above, left to join the Fighting Irish.
• Lewis had his contract expire with the Ravens after 2001, as everyone assumed he would leave to get a head coaching job; that didn’t happen, so he had a one-year pit stop as the Redskins defensive coordinator before becoming the Bengals coach indefinitely.
• Giunta was fired after the Rams defense collapsed in 2000.
• Davis left to become the Miami Hurricanes head coach, and later, the Cleveland Browns head coach.

Left After Two Years (6)

Going all the way to the Super Bowl can sometimes work against a coach, as it may have with Lewis, or McDaniels or Patricia in the past. Returning to the same team is the norm, but if you are still on the same team two years later, you may not be head coaching material. None of these six left to become head coaches in the NFL:

Kevin Gilbride (2011 NYG OC)
Gregg Williams (2009 NOR DC)
Ron Meeks (2006 IND DC)
Greg Robinson (1998 DEN DC)
Fritz Shurmur (1996 GNB DC)
Ernie Zampese (1995 DAL OC)

• Gilbride was retired/fired after the Giants offense declined after the Super Bowl run.
• Williams had his contract “expire” after the Saints defense collapsed, amid other issues; he resurfaced as the Rams DC for about a month before being suspended for his role in BountyGate (i.e., the other issues).
• Meeks “resigned” — noticing a trend here? — with the Colts after the ’08 season, but was hired as the Panthers defensive coordinator one week later.
• Robinson was fired after the Broncos defense bottomed out in 2000. He went to the Chiefs in 2001, who would not become known for their defense.
• Shurmur, who had a reputation as a defensive genius, left the Packers after the ’98 season to join Mike Holmgren in Seattle. Tragically, Shurmur never coached a game with the Seahawks, passing away of liver cancer that August.
• Zampese was fired along with Barry Switzer after the 1997 season to make room for offensive-minded head coach Chan Gailey.

Three More Years (8)

Matt Patricia (2014 NWE DC)
Perry Fewell (2011 NYG DC)
Bruce Arians (2008 PIT OC)
Tom Moore (2006 IND OC)
Charlie Weis (2001 NWE OC)
Romeo Crennel (2001 NWE DC)
Greg Robinson (1997 DEN DC)
Sherman Lewis (1996 GNB OC)

Patricia, Crennel, and Weis stayed with the Patriots after winning the Super Bowl, winning another Super Bowl two years later, and making a third Super Bowl the next season, before ultimately all leaving for head coaching jobs. The other five?

• Fewell lasted just one more year than Gilbride, as the Giants defense continued to disappoint year after year under Fewell.
• Arians was retired/fired by the Steelers after 2011, and that’s when his career took off.  He joined the Colts as offensive coordinator but became head coach after Chuck Pagano stepped aside to battle a cancer diagnosis.  Arians would go on to win two AP Coach of the Year awards, in both 2012 and 2014.
• Moore slowly transitioned from OC to senior offensive consultant with the Colts.  After the 2009 season, the 71-year-old Moore gave up those duties to Clyde Christensen, and Moore left the Colts after 2010 (he worked with the Jets in 2011, the Titans in 2012, and the Cardinals from 2014 to 2017, so he wasn’t question ready to retire).
• Robinson, as mentioned above was fired three years after the ’97 Broncos won the title (and two years after the ’98 Broncos).
• After Holmgren left the Packers in ’98, Ray Rhodes was brought in to replace him.  Lewis, the offensive coordinator, stuck around under the defensive-minded Rhodes, but both were gone when Green Bay brought in Mike Sherman (who was Holmgren’s OC in Seattle in ’99) as head coach in 2000. Lewis went on to the Vikings, but lasted just two years in Minnesota.

Four More Years (3)

Darrell Bevell (2013 SEA OC)
Matt Cavanaugh (2000 BAL OC)
Dave Campo (1995 DAL DC)

Bevell made it back to another Super Bowl with the Seahawks in 2014, but a questionable playcall at the end of that game — do you remember it? — has haunted his tenure ever since.  He was finally relieved of his offensive coordinator duties at the end of the 2017 season, and remains a free agent.

Cavanaugh was the offensive coordinator for one of the worst offenses to ever win a Super Bowl. Baltimore’s offense didn’t do any better from ’01 to ’04, and eventually, Cavanaugh was fired by the Ravens.  After the season, he got a job as offensive coordinator from the Pittsburgh Panthers under Wannstedt, giving the ’05 to ’08 Pitt Panthers two men who won Super Bowl rings as coordinators.  In their first year, Wannstedt and Cavanaugh announced that sophomore Tyler Palko had won the starting quarterback job, causing the backup quarterback to transfer.  The Ravens couldn’t have picked a better time to fire Cavanugh, as that backup quarterback was Joe Flacco.

Campo is the big outlier here.  He won the Super Bowl as the Cowboys defensive coordinator in ’95, stayed on post-Switzer under the offensive-minded Gailey, and then was named the Dallas head coach for the ’00 season as a way to try to return to the glory days in Texas. The Cowboys went 5-11 in each of his three seasons as head coach.

Five More Years (1)

Dean Pees (2012 BAL DC)

Pees lasted for five more seasons with the Ravens, but was retired/fired.  He came out of a month long retirement a couple of weeks ago to become the 2018 Titans defensive coordinator.

Six More Years (4)

Dick LeBeau (2008 PIT DC)
Kevin Gilbride (2007 NYG OC)
Bill Muir (2002 TAM OC)
Monte Kiffin (2002 TAM DC)

LeBeau lasted forever in Pittsburgh, but after winning his second Super Bowl with the Steelers in 2008, the defense gradually began to decline.  By 2014, Pittsburgh ranked 18th in both points and yards allowed, and LeBeau resigned after the season (and joined the Titans one month later).

Gilbride got a reprieve by winning another Super Bowl with the Giants in 2011, but as noted above, the offensive decline by 2013 eventually did him in.

Muir and Kiffin lasted as long as Jon Gruden did in Tampa Bay, lasting through the collapse at the end of the 2008 season.  But if their post-Gruden career was the same, their pre-Gruden career couldn’t have been any different.  Kiffin was the famed defensive coordinator who was 62 when Gruden arrived: he was extraordinarily well-respected but never given a serious look at a head coaching job because of his age (he would later join the Cowboys as defensive coordinator at 73 years old in 2013). Muir? Well, he had an even more unusual history.

Seven More Years (2)

Dom Capers (2010 GNB DC)
Gary Kubiak (1998 DEN OC)

Capers and the Packers won the Super Bowl in 2010 with a defense that ranked in the top 5 in both points allowed and yards allowed. The Packers never again ranked in the top 10 under Capers, and after the pass defense ranked in the bottom five in NY/A in both 2016 and 2017, Capers was finally fired on New Years day, 2018.

Kubiak left to become a head coach, which only happened after the Broncos finally won a playoff game again in 2005. Under Kubiak, Denver won the Super Bowl in ’97 and ’98, ranking in the top 3 in both points and yards both years. The Broncos did that in 2000, too, but Kubiak wasn’t able to land a head coaching job.  In fact, after the ’00 season, he interviewed with the expansion Houston Texans, but didn’t get the offer. The Broncos offense regresesd in ’01, but he had four more strong years under Shanahan from ’02 to ’05. But after not winning a postseason game from ’99 to ’04, Denver and Kubiak rebounded in ’05, going 13-3 and earning the 2 seed in the AFC.  After the season, he interviewed for the Texans job — and this time, he got it.

Eight (2)

Gary Kubiak (1997 DEN OC)
Pete Carmichael (2009 NOR OC)

Kubiak, of course, is on here because he won titles in both ’97 and ’98.

Carmichael? Well, he’s soon about to join the next list: all indications are that he will be back in 2018, which would make for 9 straight years as the Saints offensive coordinator after winning the Super Bowl.  Perhaps, like Kubiak, working for a head coach with a reputation as an offensive guru has hurt Carmichael, along with the whole Hall of Fame quarterback thing, too.  One could argue that Weis and Bill O’Brien with Brady, Joe Philbin with Rodgers, and Adam Gase with Manning haven’t helped his cause in that regard, as none have had magic touches at quarterback after getting jobs with new teams. But Carmichael is about to enter his 10th season with the Saints, and in his first nine, the Saints rank 1st in yards, 1st in yards per play, and 2nd in points. He’s always been talked about, but never given a serious look, perhaps because he’s viewed as the #3 man on the Saints offense.

It’s unprecedented for a coordinator to win a Super Bowl, and oversee a unit that’s this good for this long without getting a head coaching job.

Nine (1)

Dick LeBeau (2005 PIT DC)

And finally we have LeBeau ’05, who will soon be joined my Carmichael ’09. The difference here is that LeBeau already a job as a head coach with the Bengals and was in his seventies starting in 2007; Carmichael is just 46 years old.

Frank Reich is the ultimate backup.  In 1984, Reich helped lead the largest comeback in college football history.  With Maryland trailing Miami 31-0, Reich came off the bench to replace Stan Gelbaugh and led the Terrapins to a 42-40 victory.  It remained the biggest comeback in college football for over thirty years.

Eight years later, with an injured Jim Kelly on the sidelines, Reich led the greatest comeback in NFL history, leading the Bills to a 41-38 playoff win over Houston after trailing 35-3 early in the third quarter.

And in 2017, Reich was the Eagles offensive coordinator when MVP favorite Carson Wentz tore his ACL, ending his season.  Reich helped design an offense that turned Philadelphia backup and Rams castoff Nick Foles into the Super Bowl MVP. After leading two miraculous comebacks as a backup quarterback, Reich was the man pulling the strings as the Eagles backup quarterback did something even Reich couldn’t do: win the Super Bowl.

And now? Reich is once again coming in off the bench. For most of January, Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels was expected to become the next Colts head coach.  But McDaniels ultimately changed his mind and decided to return to New England, leaving the Colts at the altar at the last minute.  In an embarrassing bind, Indianapolis has turned to the ultimate backup, tapping Reich as the team’s newest head coach.

Reich, after winning the Super Bowl as an offensive coordinator, is immediately becoming an NFL head coach. In addition to the two coordinators who were promoted by their franchises after winning the Super Bowl after their head coaches retired, Reich will become the 10th coordinator to win a Super Bowl and then become head coach with another team. [continue reading…]

Bill Belichick is no stranger to the playoffs.  He’s been on the sidelines for 38 postseason games as a head coach with 28 victories, and entering the 2017 playoffs, he was tied with Don Shula and Tom Landry for most playoff games coached (36).  Of his three opposing head coaches in the 2017 playoffs — Mike Mularkey, Doug Marrone, and Doug Pederson — none had made the playoffs before this year.

Prior to their games with the Patriots, Marrone and Pederson had been 2-0, while Mularky had been 1-0, giving Belichick a 35-game/25-win advantage over Mularkey and Marrone, and a 36-game/26-win advantage over Pederson (who, like Belichick, had a bye this postseason). It should go without saying, but let’s state the obvious truth: a 36-game coaching edge, and a 26-win coaching edge, are both playoff records.

Before this year, the largest coaching differential in playoff game experience was 34, held by Tom Landry in this game against John Robinson and the Rams.

The table below shows the largest coaching disadvantages in playoff history prior to 2017 (since now the top three rows would all be Belichick). Note that all of the data presented below is the coaching experience prior to the start of that postseason, so Belichick would show up as +36 against each of Mularkey, Marrone, and Pederson. [continue reading…]

There will be 7 new head coaches in 2018, with Jon Gruden, Oakland Raiders (former HC, most recently at ESPN) joining three 2017 offensive coordinators and three 2017 defensive coordinators.

Offensive Coordinators

Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears (formerly KC OC; Chiefs ranked 4th in DVOA, 5th in my passing efficiency ratings, 4th in my rushing efficiency ratings, and 3rd in my offensive efficiency ratings).

Pat Shurmur, New York Giants (former MIN OC; Vikings ranked 5th in DVOA, 7th in passing efficiency, 19th in rushing efficiency, and 7th in offensive efficiency.

Josh McDaniels, Indianapolis Colts (former NE OC; Patriots ranked 1st in DVOA, 2nd in pass efficiency, 8th in rush efficiency, and 2nd in offensive efficiency [hire pending Super Bowl LII]

The Nagy and McDaniels hires speak for themselves: both coached top-5 offenses, and arguably top-3 offenses.  As for Shurmur, he coordinated an offense that was led by two undrafted free agents. Shurmur (9-23 with the Browns) and McDaniels (11-17 with the Broncos) each have previous coaching experience, while Nagy, who turns 40 in April, spent all of his 30s working under Andy Reid.

Defensive Coordinators
[continue reading…]

Dan Quinn and the Atlanta Falcons pulled off a big upset on Wild Card weekend, winning 26-13 in Los Angeles against the heavily favored Rams. The win was driven in large part by special teams: Atlanta picked up 40 yards of field position on punts, Falcons kicker Matt Bryant was 4/4 on field goals, including from 51 and 54 yards away, and the Rams lost two fumbles on special teams, with one muff and one fumble by Pro Bowler Pharoh Cooper.

Special teams was the story of the game, but the narrative nearly shifted to a monumental mistake by Quinn.  With just under 6 minutes left in the game, the Falcons scored a touchdown to take a 25-13 lead.  Up by 12 with 5:54 remaining, going for 2 is the obvious choice. The difference between a 12-point lead and a 13-point lead with 6 minutes left isn’t much; meanwhile, the difference between a 13-point lead and a 14-point lead is huge.  The Rams were very unlikely to have three possessions left and to tie the game with a touchdown and two field goals, but a Los Angeles touchdown, followed by a stop, followed by another Rams TD was certainly on the table.  That would win the game if the Rams were down 12 or 13, but only force overtime if the Rams were down by 14.

Yet, remarkably, Quinn chose to kick the extra point.  Since the start of the 2012 season, there had been 12 instances where a team scored a touchdown to take a 12-point lead with less than 7 minutes left in the game.  Even overly conservative coaches mostly got this right: they went for two in 9 of 12 cases.

The three exceptions were notable:

In week 2 of the 2016 season, the Jets took a 36-24 lead over the Bills with just over four minutes remaining.  I tweeted that the Jets needed to go for 2 after scoring, was incredulous after they did not, and then hoped the Jets media would ask Bowles about it after the game. It turns out that they did, and Bowles admitted making a mistake.

Bowles on Friday said he “should’ve” gone for two in this spot. Why didn’t he?

“I was occupied doing something with the defense,” he said. “When I turned around and looked at it, that was my bust. I’ll be better going forward.”

Another example came in 2013, when (at the time) everyone’s favorite coach, Chuck Pagano, pulled off a big upset but made this same mistake.  I wrote about that at the time, too:

I can’t believe I’m writing this article. Everyone loves Chuck Pagano, but he made a pretty embarrassing blunder at the end of the Colts upset win in San Francisco on Sunday. The Colts led 13-7 when Andrew Luck scrambled for a six yard touchdown on 3rd-and-3 with just over four minutes left in the fourth quarter. Incredibly, Pagano then chose to kick the extra point, which my buddy and Colts fan Nate Dunlevy identified immediately as a terrible decision.

I wasn’t going to write a post about that decision, because, ya know, what could be more obvious than going for two when up by 12 points with just over four minutes left in the game? I mean, Jason Garrett got this right in the season opener. Being up by 14 points means two touchdowns doesn’t beat you, while there is almost no difference between being up 12 or being up 13 points.

The final example involved the Browns in a 37-24 win over Buffalo.  Cleveland recorded a pick six with just under two minutes left to take a 36-24 lead.  Maybe Rob Chudzinski was so surprised by the score that he simply made a brainfart the way Bowles did.  In some ways, the mistake was minimized, because the odds of the other team scoring two touchdowns in less than two minutes are much lower than two touchdowns in six minutes.  On the other hand, there’s literally no justification at all for not going for two in that case, because the opponent can’t have three possessions. [continue reading…]

Today’s guest post comes from Miles Wray, a long-time reader of the site. He’s written an interesting post on special teams today, but you may know him as the host of the daily NBA podcast The 82 Review. You can also find him on Twitter @mileswray. What follows are Miles’ words: as always, we thank our guest writers for their contributions.

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Bill Belichick Found Another Way to Bleed Yards From Opponents

Anytime the New England Patriots are at the top — or the bottom — of a league-wide leaderboard, no matter how insignificant that leaderboard is, it’s worth taking notice. The odds are that Bill Belichick and Ernie Adams are thinking a few steps ahead of every other team in the league, and are leveraging yet another corner of the game to their advantage.

Since the Patriots offense remains incredibly explosive, it’s pretty reasonable that they would be near the top of the league in the total number of kickoffs returned (i.e., opponent kickoff returns). New England has 47 kickoffs this year, or nearly double the number of a struggling offense like the Cleveland Browns (26). But how about this: the Patriots are dramatically ahead of everybody else in the league in the percentage of their kickoffs that are returned.

Since kickoffs were moved from the 30- to the 35-yard-line in 2011, it’s more common than ever to see a kickoff boomed out the back of the endzone. These plays have become so routine it’s basically part of the commercial break now. But not for the Patriots. The Patriots seem to be inviting their opponent to return their kicks.

I went through the kickoff statistics for each team in the league, and discarded any onside kicks, any short kicks in the last 10 seconds of the first half (which are often intentionally squibbed), and any kicks where the just-scored/kicking-off team had been penalized, moving the kickoff to the 30-, 25-, or 20-yard line. The remaining “clean” kickoffs give the best indication of a team’s intentional special teams strategy over time.

This season, most teams have about a third of their kickoffs returned. Only three teams have had over half of their kickoffs returned; the Patriots are alone at over 60%: [continue reading…]

Last night, the Texans and Bengals played in a yet another boring and low-scoring game. In the final seconds of the first half, the Bengals trailed 10-3, but got a big break when Cincinnati completed a 37-yard pass down to the Houston 11 yard line.  The Bengals had 1st-and-10 with 16 seconds left, which should have been enough time for… 2 plays? The first play took four seconds, and the second six, which caused the Bengals to send out the field goal team.  Cincinnati ultimately lost by four points.

That feels like an overly conservative move, particularly given that the Bengals had run a pass play that took four seconds just one play earlier. So I looked at all plays with 5, 6, or 7 seconds left in the first half since 2007 where the team had the ball anywhere from the 8 to the 15 yard line and before fourth down. How often do teams kick a field goal? [continue reading…]

As interim coach of the Indianapolis Colts in 2012, Bruce Arians was remarkable. He was named AP Coach of the Year, as the Colts went 9-3, and 8-3-1 against the spread, under his watch. In his first year with the Cardinals in 2013, Arians went 10-5-1 against the spread, making him one of the best coaches ever by that metric. Then in 2014, Arians again was again named Coach of the Year, as he rode some Pythagenpat Magic to go 11-5 against the spread, bringing his career mark up to 29-13-2 against the wise guys in the desert. And in 2015, Arians started off red hot yet again! A 39-32 victory in Seattle against the defending NFC Champions on Sunday Night Football put the Cardinals at 7-2, and 6-2-1 against the spread. At that point, Arians was 35-15-3 against the spread for his coaching career. That’s a 0.660 winning percentage ATS if you count pushes as half wins and half losses, and an even better .700 winning percentage if you discard all pushes (arguably the better approach, since for wagering purposes, a push just means you get your money back). Nobody can beat the spread 70% of the time, right?

Well, yes. Right. Since then, Arians is 9-15-0 against the spread, dropping from a 70% success rate to a 37.5% rate. And he’s just 6-12 ATS in his last 18 games. That includes a stretch in 2016 where Arians’ Cardinals failed to cover in five straight games and seven of eight contests. And it includes a 12-point loss in week 1 of the 2017 season on Sunday, when the Cardinals were 2.5-point favorites. The graph below shows every game of his head coaching career and how many points his team beat (blue) or were beaten by (in red) the spread: [continue reading…]

According to the Pro-Football-Reference.com coaching database, there’s only one man in NFL history that has been, at various points in his NFL career, both an offensive coordinator and a defensive coordinator. Can you name him?

There are some coaches, off the top of my head, who have spent time coaching on both sides of the ball.   Bill Belichick has been heavily involved with the Patriots offense for about a decade (New England didn’t even have an offensive coordinator in 2009 or 2010), and while he never held any official title, he also was the Detroit Lions receivers coach in 1977. Eric Mangini was an offensive assistant for the Browns and Ravens, and also a tight ends coach for the 49ers, while spending time as a defensive assistant (and later head coach) for the Jets, and defensive backs coach and defensive coordinator for the Patriots (he also was the 49ers DC in 2015, his last coaching gig). Juan Castillo has mostly been an NFL assistant on the offensive side of the ball (never serving as an offensive coordinator, however), but he did get surprisingly tapped as the Eagles defensive coordinator in 2011, and worked in that role for a couple of years (well, he was fired in October 2012).

But being both an offensive coordinator and a defensive coordinator in the NFL? That just doesn’t happen. Our mystery coach was a position coach on both sides of the ball in college, including as offensive line coach at SMU in 1976 and 1977. He left the college game to joint the NFL as a scout with the Bucs in ’78.

Then, in 1982, the Patriots hired SMU head coach Ron Meyer, and Meyer picked our mystery man to became the Patriots offensive line coach.  He served under Meyer for his entire tenure in New England, which ended in 1984.  In 1985, he joined Darryl Rogers in Detroit as the Lions offensive line coach, and stayed with the team for four seasons.

While our man was in Detroit, Meyer had been hired as the Colts coach, and Meyer inherited defensive coordinator George Hill. But after the ’88 season, Meyer hired our mystery man to join him in Indianapolis as the team’s defensive coordinator.  At that point, he had no really experience coaching defense other than at Delaware Valley, Rhode Island, and Idaho State, but Meyer nonetheless chose him for the job.  The Colts defense wasn’t great (although it wasn’t terrible, either) in ’89 and ’90, but in ’91, Meyer moved from Indianapolis defensive coordinator to Indianapolis offensive line coach. [continue reading…]

There are currently five head coaches in the NFL that used to be coordinators for the Atlanta Falcons. If you’re a betting man, Steve Sarkisian may be the next to join the list.  Sark was a Pac-12 head coach for six years (four in Washington and two at USC) before spending last season as the Alabama offensive coordinator.  He’s now the 2017 Falcons offensive coordinator, and that’s a pretty good place to be. The last four offensive coordinators for the Falcons — Kyle Shanahan, Dirk Koetter, Mike Mularkey, and Hue Jackson — are the current head coaches in San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, and Cleveland. Mike Zimmer, the Falcons defensive coordinator opposite Jackson in the Bobby Petrino-doomed 2007 season, is the Vikings head coach, giving Atlanta a league-high five former coordinators who are current head coaches.

In the last few years, the Broncos have had four coordinators go on to become head coaches elsewhere: Jack Del Rio and Adam Gase are the head coaches in Oakland and Miami, while Mike McCoy (San Diego) and Dennis Allen (Oakland) have since been fired. The Ravens have also had four coordinators in the last decade get promoted: Gary Kubiak (Denver) and Rex Ryan (Jets, Bills) are no longer current head coaches, while Chuck Pagano (Colts) and Jim Caldwell (Detroit) are still active head coaches.

In addition to Atlanta, the Bengals are responsible for three current head coaches: the Cincinnati platform lifted Hue Jackson to Cleveland, Mike Zimmer to Minnesota, and Jay Gruden to Washington.

Since 1990

Since 1990, two teams have sent an incredible 9 coordinators to become head coaches of different franchises. For Denver, in addition to the four above, Gary Kubiak, Jim Fassel, Wade Phillips, Mike Shanahan (due to his time as head coach in Washington), and Chan Gailey were all coordinators in Denver since 1990 and then become head coaches elsewhere.

The other team is the 49ers, although all 9 coordinators were in San Francisco from 1991 to 2006. The full list, from most recent to least:
Norv Turner, Mike McCarthy, Jim Mora, Marty Mornhinweg, Pete Carroll, Marc Trestman, Ray Rhodes, Mike Shanahan, and Mike Holmgren.

Fewest

As discussed yesterday, the last Tampa Bay coordinator to become a head coach at another franchise was back in 1984. Each other team has sent at least one coordinator since ’05 on to become the head coach somewhere else.

Since 1990, three teams have vaulted just one coordinator to a head coaching job for another team. The Colts had Bruce Arians as the team’s offensive coordinator (and interim head coach) in 2012, and has been the Cardinals head coach since. For Houston,
the coordinator history has not been great, and Kyle Shanahan (the team’s OC in ’08 and ’09 before moving on to Washington) just became the first one to get a head coaching gig. The final team is Detroit: Dick Jauron was the Lions defensive coordinator in ’04 and ’05 (also serving as interim head coach), before becoming the Bills head coach in ’06.  Detroit and Tampa Bay are the only teams that don’t have a coordinator since ’06 go on to be a coach elsewhere, but with Jim Bob Cooter and Teryl Austin being highly regarded, that could change soon.

The table below shows all offensive and defensive coordinators since 1990 to become head coaches at other teams (ignoring interim head coaches): [continue reading…]

In the Tampa Bay Buccaneers franchise history, they have only had two coordinators become head coaches after leaving central Florida (Dirk Koetter, of course, went from Bucs OC in 2015 to Bucs HC in 2016): Wayne Fontes was the Bucs first ever secondary coach, during the team’s inaugural season of 1976, and he stayed in that role throughout his time in Tampa Bay under John McKay. Fontes was promoted to defensive coordinator in ’82, and led the defense for the final three years of McKay’s tenure.  When McKay retired from coaching after 1984, Fontes nearly got the Tampa Bay head coaching job: when it went to Leeman Bennett instead, Fontes went to Detroit to become the Lions defensive coordinator.  From there, he got promoted to interim head coach in 1988, and became the team’s head coach on a full-time basis beginning in 1989.

McKay also had another young assistant turn into a head coach: Joe Gibbs.  The Hall of Fame head coach famously coached under the great Don Coryell in both St. Louis (as running backs coach from ’73 to ’77) and San Diego (as offensive coordinator in ’79 and ’80), along with the San Diego State Aztecs in the ’60s.  So how did Gibbs wind up in Tampa Bay?

Well, the Cardinals lost their final four games in 1977, Coryell was hired and planned to the the year off from coaching (that didn’t entirely work out). That left Gibbs without a job in ’78, but the timing was right: Gibbs coached under McKay at Southern Cal in 1969 and 1970, and since the Bucs were looking for an offensive coordinator, the timing worked out nicely.  Gibbs was instrumental in Tampa Bay drafting Doug Williams that year, and the rookie was an above-average passer in 10 starts.  After the year, Gibbs reunited with Coryell in San Diego for two seasons before building his legacy in Washington.

Incredibly, though, Fontes and Gibbs are the only two coordinators in Tampa Bay history to go to become head coaches. Take a look: [continue reading…]

There are 10 teams that have a coach and a GM that both arrived in the same season, which is the most common setup in the league. This includes successful organizations like New England (Bill Belichick and Bill Belichick, 17 years), Seattle (John Schneider and Pete Carroll, 7 years), Arizona (Steve Keim and Bruce Arians, 4 years) and Kansas City (John Dorsey and Andy Reid, 4 years), along with some teams that are hoping to duplicate such success. Four that are still working their way through the early years of marriage, while two are just getting started in 2017.

Ryan Pace and John Fox have been together in Chicago for two years, as have Mike Maccagnan and Todd Bowles in New York, while Sashi Brown and Hue Jackson in Cleveland and Chris Grier and Adam Gase in Miami just finished their first seasons. Finally, GM John Lynch and HC Kyle Shanahan just arrived in San Francisco, while Buffalo added HC Sean McDermott in January before switching GMs and bringing in Brandon Beane after the 2017 Draft.

Washington currently has a vacancy at General Manager, after firing Scot McCloughan in March after two winning years. Four other teams (in addition to Washington and Buffalo) are in the unique situation of having a head coach with a longer tenure than its GM:

• In 2014, Mike Mularkey was hired to be Tennessee’s tight ends coach. Midway through the 2015 season, the Titans fired Ken Whisenhunt and promoted Mularkey to interim head coach. Two months later, Tennessee fired GM Ruston Webster and hired Jon Robinson from Tampa Bay; Robinson, despite significant backlash, chose to retain Mularkey as the team’s head coach. That has worked out pretty well so far: after going 3-13 (2-7 under Mularkey) in 2015, the Titans went 9-7 in the first year under Mularkey and Robinson.

• Ron Rivera has been in Carolina since 2011. After a 6-10 first season, Carolina began the year 3-9 in 2012, prompting me to write how attractive this potentially vacant job would be. Well, the Panthers finished 7-9 and retained Rivera, but fired Marty Hurney, who had been the team’s general manager since 2002. The Panthers then hired Dave Gettleman, who retained Rivera, and the rest has been history. Rivera has been named the AP Head Coach of the Year twice since Gettleman arrived.

• The Lions hired Jim Caldwell in 2014, just a year removed from his impressive playoff run that resulted in a Super Bowl as the Ravens offensive coordinator. At the time, Detroit’s GM was Martin Mayhew, but he was fired midway through 2015 with Detroit just 1-7. The Lions hired ex-Patriot Bob Quinn in 2016, who chose to retain Caldwell, after the Lions went 6-2 down the stretch in 2015. Like Mularkey and Robinson, Caldwell and Quinn went

• Finally, the Colts brought in Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson in 2012. Indianapolis followed three straight 11-5 seasons with a pair of 8-8 campaigns; after nearly firing one or both men after 2015, Colts owner Jim Irsay finally ended the failed marriage by canning Grigson after the 2016 season. He’s been replaced by Chris Ballard, who is retaining Pagano… so far.

The table below shows this information for all 32 teams. It’s pretty self-explanatory, but for clarity’s sake, note that the years column excludes the yet-to-be-played (spoiler!) 2017 season. [continue reading…]

Bill Belichick and the Patriots won their fifth Super Bowl on Sunday. For a number of reasons, that brings up some good trivia tidbits.

Most Championships

Belichick, of course, is now the only coach with five Super Bowl rings. However, three other coaches have won more titles. Paul Brown won 7 championships, although only three NFL titles (the remaining four were in the AAFC). George Halas and Curly Lambeau each won 6 NFL titles, while Belichick is now tied with Vince Lombardi at five.

Oldest Coach

Belichick is 64 years old, making him the third oldest head coach to win it all. In 2011, Tom Coughlin and the Giants beat Belichick’s Patriots in the Super Bowl, and Coughlin was 65 years old that season. George Halas won his final title in 1963, at the age of 68. Meanwhile, Dick Vermeil was 63 years old when he won the Super Bowl with the Rams to conclude the 1999 season.

Longest Run Between Titles

Belichick’s first title came in 2001, which means he’s now won championships 15 years apart. That’s tied with Curly Lambeau for the third longest stretch: Lambeau won his first championship in 1929, and his last in 1944, with both coming with the Packers. Jimmy Conzelman won as head coach of the Providence Steam Roller in 1928 and then 19 years later with the Chicago Cardinals in 1947. The longest reign, of course, goes to George Halas at 42 years; he won championships with the Bears in both 1921 and 1963. The only other coach to win titles at least 10 years apart? Weeb Ewbank, who won with the Colts in ’58 and ’59, and then as head coach of the Jets (and against the Colts) in 1968.

Most Common Record

There have been 8 Super Bowl champions with 14-2 records, and three of them (’03, ’04, ’16) were coached by Belichick. That’s tied for the second most common record for a Super Bowl champion behind 12-4. There were 11 teams that won with that record, including Belichick’s 2014 squad. The other record to win it all 8 times was 13-3. [continue reading…]

Regular readers know I am fascinating by the Coach of the Year award.  Here is what I wrote in the preseason:

But even if I wasn’t getting odds, I think I’m still going with Bill O’Brien this year.   Houston was good last year, but if Brock Osweiler hits, and Jadeveon Clowney turns into a star, O’Brien’s Texans will look very good. I think we’ll see O’Brien getting the bulk of the credit for any success in Houston this year, and he’s as good a choice as any.

Here were the Vegas odds entering week 17: not sure much has changed since then, although the Chiefs jumped the Raiders for the 2 seed, which I suppose has increased Reid’s odds and decreased Del Rio’s chances.

Jason Garrett – Dallas 1/2
Dan Quinn – Atlanta 4/1
Bill Belichick – New England 15/2
Jack Del Rio – Oakland 15/2
Andy Reid – Kansas City 15/2
Adam Gase – Miami 12/1

It feels like Garrett and Belichick are the frontrunners — you know, they happen to coach the #1 seeds in each conference — and I can certainly understand the support for Quinn and Reid, who coach the teams that grabbed the #2 seeds.  I still like O’Brien, and think you can spin an easy argument for him: the Texans finished 9-7 despite ranking 29th in DVOA!  Now maybe that’s because they were lucky, but they probably received some good coaching, too.  I think the harder part is that Houston’s offense was awful, and O’Brien is an offensive guy, so doesn’t he deserve some of the blame for that?

Not on the list, but Ben McAdoo seems like another guy who — despite the shortcomings on offense, which is his side of the ball — has done a nice job of getting his team to overachieve.  The Giants finished 11-5 and McAdoo was able to integrate a lot of new faces on defense very quickly. Mike Mularkey also did a good job of building a team in his image, although Tennessee’s pitiful 2-4 record in the division makes it tough.

Who would you vote for? Who do you think will win the award?

Bryan Frye once chronicled the NFL’s passing kings: that is, the career leaders in passing touchdowns throughout every year in NFL history. There are ten men who have been the career leader in touchdown passes, but only eight (soon to be nine) men who can say that they, at one point, had the most losses of any head coach in pro football history. Let’s begin in the natural place: the beginning.

Ted Nesser (1920-1921): 14 career losses

Nesser was the head coach of the Columbus Panhandles in the inaugural 1920 season of the APFA, the predecessor to the NFL. The Panhandles lost their first five games, and finished the season with the most losses in the league. The next year, Nesser’s Panhandles again led the league in losses (8), before the team moved on without him for the 1922 season.  Nesser was a great player — he made the PFRA’s Hall of Very Good — but was 37 by the time he came to the Panhandles as player/coach.

Jim Thorpe (1922-1925): 25 career losses

Yes, that Jim Thorpe took over from Nesser as the career leader in losses. Thorpe also coached in 1920, and by the end of the ’22 season, he was at 15 career losses. He held the title of losing coach in pro football history for four more years — even though he was done coaching after ’23 — finishing his career with 25 losses.

Carl Storck (1926-1928): 26 career losses

Probably the last name on the list you won’t recognize, Storck coached the Dayton Triangles from 1922 to 1926.  He had a winning record his first year, but went just 4-23-4 the rest of his career.  In his last game as a head coach, in 1926, he finally passed Thorpe for most career losses. [continue reading…]

Bill Belichick and the Patriots are now 3-0. That has increased Belichick’s career record to 226-113-0, for a 0.667 winning percentage. He moved into a tie with Curly Lambeau for fourth-place in career wins, and already ranks third in career wins over .500.

The table below shows the career leaders in wins; Belichick trails only Shula, Halas, and Landry in wins,  Shula and Halas in wins over 0.500, and Halas, Shula, and Brown (among coaches in the top ten in wins) in winning percentage.

Halas started coaching (and owning, and well, lots of other things) back in 1920, so he’s really from a different era.  But it’s interesting that Shula has more wins, a better winning percentage, and has more wins above 0.500 than Belichick, but I don’t think many people would say he was a better coach.  I want to investigate why.

Shula has a 2-0 career record against Belichick, with those wins coming on the road in 1992 and 1993. But, of course, Belichick’s first run in Cleveland came when he was a much less successful coach. Let’s take a look at Belichick’s year-by-year winning percentage, through 2015. A fun note: Belichick has never gone 8-8 in his career: he was above .500 just once in five years in Cleveland, and below .500 just once in 16 (and counting) years in New England: [continue reading…]

There were no shortage of characters worthy of finger-point when it comes to the Jets 23-22 loss to the Bengals yesterday.

• Ryan Fitzpatrick completed just 54% of his passes, despite a game plan that was nearly entire dink-and-dunk (he averaged 10 yards per completion).

• Darrelle Revis was torched by A.J. Green repeatedly, to the tune of (by one count) 10 receptions on 10 targets for 152 yards and a touchdown.

• Nick Folk missed an extra point and had a 22-yard field goal attempt blocked.  The latter error was just the second missed field goal from inside the 5-yard line since 2013. Obviously those missed points came back to haunt the Jets.

• Brandon Marshall had just 3 receptions for 37 yards, and failed to haul in/dropped what could have been a game-saving catch on the final drive.

[continue reading…]