Passing — Page 8

Random Perspective On: The 2012 New England Patriots

by Chase Stuart on August 20, 2012

in Fantasy, Passing, Random Perspective On, Receiving

New England has had one of the most creative and flexible offenses for the last decade. From 2002 to 2011, the Patriots offense was always good but it was rarely predictable. On paper, the Patriots arguably have their best and deepest set of skill position players in franchise history. But with the addition of Brandon Lloyd to a group that includes Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, many are wondering what the breakdown will be in the passing game in 2012. Let’s not forget that Tom Brady passed for the second most yards in NFL history last year and then the team signed Josh McDaniels’ favorite Brandon Lloyd.

Before speculating on the 2012 season, we need to look at how the Patriots passing game has operated in the past. The chart below shows a breakdown of targets in the New England passing game for each of the past ten years by position:

Some thoughts:

Kevin Faulk used to get around 55 targets per season, but New England has essentially fazed the running back out of the passing game. I doubt that is by design, but more a reflection of New England’s failure to find the right replacement at the position. Note that New England signed ex-Florida Gator running back and Olympic silver medalist Jeff Demps last week, although he is unlikely to make an immediate impact.
From ’02 to ’05, the Patriots had a pretty consistent offense. Troy Brown, David Patten, Deion Branch, and David Givens each spent time as the main receiver, and in ’02, ’04 and ’05, wide receivers as a group saw 63-64% of the Patriots’ targets. In ’03, Brown had fallen off while Givens and Patten weren’t main cogs in the offense, but otherwise, New England’s offensive philosophy didn’t vary. Then, after the 2005 season, the Patriots traded Deion Branch, who had seen 23% of the team’s targets in that season. The ’06 Patriots responded by throwing more to Ben Watson, which ultimately proved not to be the answer.
In 2006, Reche Caldwell led the team in targets, which prompted the Patriots to add Randy Moss and Wes Welker in the following off-season. Whereas the targets for the WR1 and WR2 had been declining from ’04 to ’06, in 2007, Moss and Welker received over 50% of the team’s targets, and the tight ends and running backs became less integral. In 2008, even without Brady, little changed with Matt Cassel running the offense, with the most notable decline being the lack of targets for the fourth, fifth and sixth wide receivers. 2009 resembled 2007, as Brady got the Sam Aikens and Joey Galloways of the world involved. By that time, the Patriots were running a full spread offense, and had almost entirely forgotten about the tight end. But much of that was out of necessity: Ben Watson was in his final year with the team and the Patriots wanted more speed on the field; New England had signed Chris Baker to be the backup tight end, but the long-time Jet had little left in his tank.
In that context, perhaps it isn’t surprising that New England added Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in the 2010 draft. Moss had worn out his welcome, and New England struggled to find a true replacement. The Patriots turned to their young tight ends, along with Danny Woodhead, but still were weak at wide receiver as Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman were not competent as backup wide receivers. In the off-season, the Patriots signed Chad Ochocinco, which turned out to be a disaster. Outside of the WR1 and WR2, the other wide receivers and the running backs averaged 39% of the team’s targets from ’02 to ’10; in 2011, that number dropped to 18%, the first time that group failed to have at least 31% of the team’s targets. In ’03, for example, the backup WRs and the RBs had nearly 50% of the targets, but the talent was there: David Givens, Bethel Johnson, David Patten, Kevin Faulk, Larry Centers and Antowain Smith weren’t stars, but were competent in their roles. Last year, Ochocinco, Edelman and Tiquan Underwood added almost nothing, while only Woodhead was a threat in the passing game among the running backs.

So what can we expect for 2011? BenJarvus Green-Ellis is gone, but New England doesn’t seem likely to give Shane Vereen many more targets. I think we can safely conclude that the Patriots won’t be depending on their running backs to gain yards through the air in 2012. But I do think the Patriots want more from their wide receivers, and the signing of Brandon Lloyd should increase the production of both the WR2 and the WR3, which is where Branch will now be. Assuming he isn’t cut, I doubt Branch is fazed out completely — Ochocinco saw only 5% of the Patriots targets last year, but usually New England will target their third wide receiver around 10% of the time. With so many mouths to feed, Welker is likely to see a small decline in attention. If we put Welker at 23%, Lloyd at 19%, Branch at 9% and the other wide receivers at 3%, that would mean Brady would target his receivers on 54% of his passes. Giving the running backs 10% — the same number as last season — would leave 36% for the tight ends. We’ll probably see both Gronkowski and Hernandez each up with 18% of the targets, as Brady hasn’t shown a significant preference for either player.

Assuming strong production per target, it’s certainly possible for Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez to all have monster years in 2011 *and* for Brandon Lloyd to improve on Branch’s numbers and for Branch to improve on Ochocinco’s performance. Of course, all of this assumes — or signals — that Tom Brady is going to have a monster year if things go according to plan. But to expect Brady to improve on last year’s numbers may be asking too much.

For fantasy purposes, the bigger question might be about the size of the pie rather than about its breakdown. If New England’s defense is better, the Patriots could certainly end up passing less this year. Brady may be more effective per pass, and could put up lofty touchdown numbers, but without a high number of attempts (aided by a bad defense) it’s unlikely we see Brady set his sights on 5,000 yards again. I think the Patriots offense can handle the addition of Brandon Lloyd, and think it’s clear that Belichick wants to incorporate that vertical threat on the outside into his offense. And let’s not forget, the offensive line is as unsettled as it’s been in years. From a fantasy perspective, though, it will be important not to chase last year’s numbers too much.

If Welker and Gronkowski each lose 10% of their targets, and then the Patriots also throw 5% less frequently, those small slices can add up. Welker with 100 catches is a lot less valuable than Welker with 122 catches. I don’t think any of the stars in New England bust, but if that defense can approach league average levels, all of the Patriots stars may end up failing to live up to their fantasy draft status. I suspect that Brady finds the open receiver and doesn’t lock on any of his targets, leaving Gronkowski, Welker, Lloyd and Hernandez with very similar receiving yards totals. Gronkowski should lead in touchdowns and Welker in receptions, but otherwise good luck predicting which player Brady will lock in on in any given week. One mark that could possibly fall: New England might be the first team to have four 1,000-yard receivers in the same season.

Tagged as: Aaron Hernandez, AFC East, Bill Belichick, Brandon Lloyd, Josh McDaniels, Patriots, Rob Gronkowski, RPO 2012, Wes Welker

{ 3 comments }

Joe Namath has become football’s most misunderstood quarterback

by Chase Stuart on August 16, 2012

in History, Passing

A couple of years ago, my colleague Jason Lisk explained why Joe Namath is a legitimate Hall of Famer. With each passing year, it seems as though Namath’s career gets more misunderstood, particularly by those who look at his career stats without context. One of the main pieces of evidence that sounds damning: among Hall of Fame quarterbacks who began their careers after 1950, Namath ranks last in both touchdown/interception differential and passer rating:

Rk	Quarterback	From	To	TD	Int	Rate	TD-INT
1	Dan Marino	1983	1999	420	252	86.4	168
2	Joe Montana	1979	1994	273	139	92.3	134
3	Steve Young	1985	1999	232	107	96.8	125
4	Fran Tarkenton	1961	1978	342	266	80.4	76
5	John Elway	1983	1998	300	226	79.9	74
6	Sonny Jurgensen	1957	1974	255	189	82.6	66
7	Jim Kelly	1986	1996	237	175	84.4	62
8	Warren Moon	1984	2000	291	233	80.9	58
9	Len Dawson	1957	1975	239	183	82.6	56
10	Roger Staubach	1969	1979	153	109	83.4	44
11	Johnny Unitas	1956	1973	290	253	78.2	37
12	Troy Aikman	1989	2000	165	141	81.6	24
13	Bob Griese	1967	1980	192	172	77.1	20
14	Bart Starr	1956	1971	152	138	80.5	14
15	Dan Fouts	1973	1987	254	242	80.2	12
16	Terry Bradshaw	1970	1983	212	210	70.9	2
17	Joe Namath	1965	1977	173	220	65.5	-47

But analyzing a player by his career numbers is too broad a brush for advanced analysis. Brandon Jacobs is 107 yards away from matching Gale Sayers’ career rushing total. Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey have caught more passes than Lance Alworth and Kellen Winslow. At quarterback, comparing players across eras by their raw numbers is a pointless exercise. Byron Leftwich, Kyle Orton and Aaron Brooks have higher career passer ratings than Johnny Unitas. As always, we can only compare players by how they compared to their peers.

Namath’s career is misunderstood for several reasons. Younger fans think he’s famous because of The Guarantee, but he would have been an elite quarterback (and was acknowledged as one by his contemporaries) even if he never won a Super Bowl. He was among the best ever at avoiding sacks, an often overlooked but key element of effective quarterback play. He played in one of the worst eras for quarterbacks to compile strong passing stats, which is why his numbers don’t compare to modern quarterbacks. And his career arc was unusual, which further makes the use of career numbers an inappropriate way to understand Namath’s career.

There are 17 Hall of Fame quarterbacks to enter the league since 1950, and we can add Brett Favre, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady to get to an even twenty. Through age 26, Namath was outstanding, and was the second most productive quarterback of the twenty behind Dan Marino during those years. The table below ^[1]This list is sorted by how much Adjusted Net Yards over average each quarterback produced each season. This is calculated by taking each quarterback’s ANY/A, comparing it to league average, … Continue reading shows how much value was added by each of the twenty quarterbacks through the age of 26:
[continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	This list is sorted by how much Adjusted Net Yards over average each quarterback produced each season. This is calculated by taking each quarterback’s ANY/A, comparing it to league average, and then multiplying the difference by the number of total attempts each quarterback had.

Tagged as: Jets, Joe Namath

{ 102 comments }

Analyzing Drew Brees’ pursuit of Johnny Unitas’ legendary streak

by Chase Stuart on August 13, 2012

in History, Passing, Statistics

The man with the second longest TD streak played for the Chargers...

Last year, I noted that Drew Brees had thrown a touchdown in 37 consecutive games and examined his chances of breaking the NFL record. The current mark is held by Johnny Unitas, who threw a touchdown in 47 consecutive games from 1956 to 1960. By the end of the 2011 season, Brees had upped his streak to 43 games, which positions Brees to break the record in week 5 of this season, against his former team, the San Diego Chargers, on Sunday Night Football.

Assuming Brees breaks the record, we can expect a four-hour telecast devoted to the greatness of Drew Brees, which is largely warranted. Brees is a future Hall of Famer and one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the history of the game. And he’ll be breaking one of the oldest records in football, one currently held by the standard bearer at the position.

If you’ve been at Football Perspective for long, you probably know where this is going. How impressive will it be for Brees to break this record? The short answer is, probably not as impressive as you might think.

What are the odds of throwing a touchdown in 47 straight games ^[1]Assuming independence and a consistent rate per game? Brees deserves all of the credit and praise he gets for being an elite quarterback, and a Blaine Gabbert-type is obviously not going to be the one to break this record. But the real question we want to ask is what are the odds of a star quarterback throwing a touchdown in 47 consecutive games. We can get a pretty good estimate of that.

In 44 games from 2002 to 2005, Marc Bulger threw a touchdown in 93% of his games, or 41 of 44 games. And in two of the games where he did not throw a touchdown, he threw fewer than five passes. In 73 games from 2000 to 2004, Daunte Culpepper threw a touchdown in 86% of his games. Brett Favre, from 2001 to 2004, threw a touchdown in 95% of his games. Eli Manning, from 2005 to 2011, threw a touchdown in 86% of his starts and was booed by Giants fans in just as many. Peyton Manning, excluding his rookie year, threw a touchdown in 87% of his games with the Colts. Philip Rivers once threw a touchdown in 50 of 54 straight games. Aaron Rodgers has thrown a touchdown in 50 of his last 53 games, with one of his zeroes coming in a partial game against the Lions. Tony Romo has thrown a touchdown in 90% of his games since 2007, and 92% of those games if you exclude two games he did not finish. Matt Ryan has thrown a touchdown in 30 of his last 31 games. Matthew Stafford has thrown a touchdown in 28 of his last 30 games, with one of his shutouts coming in a game he did not finish due to injury. From ’99 to ’01, Kurt Warner threw a touchdown in 93% of his games.

And then there’s Tom Brady. Since 2007, Brady has thrown a touchdown in 92% of his starts, or 94% if you exclude his game against the Chiefs when he tore his ACL in the first quarter. Brady has also thrown a touchdown in each regular season game the past two seasons, which means he could also break Unitas’ mark in 2012.

There is obviously an upper limit to the question ‘what is the likelihood of an elite quarterback playing at an elite level throwing a touchdown in any given game?’ Last year, I speculated that Brees’ likelihood was around 89-91%, which in retrospect, might be a little low. The upper limit is probably closer to 96 or 97%, although obviously very few quarterbacks could get there. If we assume complete games — i.e., that the quarterback won’t get injured or get benched or rested — maybe a star quarterback in today’s game has a 94% chance of throwing a touchdown in any given game.

... as did the man with the longest streak

In that case, such a quarterback has a 5% chance of throwing a touchdown in 48 consecutive games. In some ways, of course, this is a “what are the odds of that” sort of question. Yes, Brees is at 43 in a row, but he’s not alone. Brady has thrown a touchdown in every game the last two seasons. Stafford has done it in 18 straight games, Rodgers for 17, and Ryan is at 15. And, of course, players like Kurt Warner and Brett Favre and Peyton Manning have played at elite levels for stretches just like Brees.

Perhaps the better question is, assuming 14 elite quarterbacks playing at elite levels play in 48 straight games, and each has a 94% chance of throwing a touchdown in any given game, what are the odds that none of them go 48/48? The answer to that: 48%. In other words, it is more likely than not that some quarterback would break the record.

Brees deserves all the praise in the world for essentially putting himself at the upper limit of elite quarterback play. He deserves credit for having a quick release and excelling at pre-snap coverage, which limits the amount of hits he takes. On the other hand, he’s fortunate to have almost entirely avoided playing in poor weather. He’s fortunate to have avoided injury on the hits he has taken, and to have not played for a coach that chose to bench him for a meaningless game after a drive or two (in fact, he missed week 17 of the 2009 season entirely, keeping his streak alive). He’s also fortunate that he’s thrown a touchdown in 43 games and not 41 or 42 out of 43, like many other elite quarterbacks. Brees has had bad games during this streak — in 7 of them, he’s averaged 4.8 AY/A or fewer — but he always managed to throw at least one touchdown. That’s less skill than luck, and you can read about some of Brees’ near misses here.

The skill involved for Brees is getting himself to that upper limit. Given enough quarterbacks playing at elite levels for enough years, Unitas’ record was bound to fall. Brees happens to be one of those quarterbacks.

References[+]

References
↑1	Assuming independence and a consistent rate per game

Tagged as: Drew Brees, Johnny Unitas, NFC South, Saints

{ 7 comments }

Tebow-Sanchez doomed to fail because two quarterbacks never work

by Chase Stuart on July 26, 2012

in History, Passing

I’ll be spending the weekend in Cortland, New York, covering Jets training camp. The big story there, of course, will be how the Mark Sanchez/Tim Tebow drama unfolds. The party line among media members is that the duo is doomed to fail, because a team with two quarterbacks doesn’t have one.

Last year, Mark Sanchez ranked 27th in Net Yards per Attempt, so the Jets were behind the 8-ball at the quarterback position well before the Tebow trade. Not that he’ll necessarily help things: Tebow averaged even fewer net yards per attempt than Sanchez in 2011, although arguably his numbers should be viewed in a more positive light.

In my view, the Tebow trade simply gives the Jets more chances to succeed, not unlike when a team throws multiple late round picks at the same position. The most tired complaint regarding the situation is that if Sanchez has a bad drive, quarter or game, fans will call for Sanchez’ head and the Jets will bring in Tebow. But such analysis never goes beyond that. If the Jets do make Tebow the starting quarterback, and he does well, that’s a good thing. If the Jets bring in Tebow, and he fails, New York can go back to Sanchez. At that point, even if Sanchez has some struggles, the calls for Tebow will be muted. However, some will argue that if Sanchez is benched even once his confidence will be shot.

You may find it absurd to suggest that benching a professional athlete may be enough to derail a great career; in fact, that’s what I originally thought. But after combing through the annals of NFL history, I’m unable to find any proof in the other direction. Truth be told, I do think having two quarterbacks is essentially the football kiss of death. Don’t believe me? Let’s take a stroll down memory lane.

Can you believe McElroy thinks the girls at Alabama are better than the coeds at Florida and USC?

In the early ’50s, the Los Angeles Rams alternated Norm Van Brocklin and Bob Waterfield as their quarterbacks. In 1950, the team averaged 38.8 points per game while each quarterback started six games, and Los Angeles won the championship the next season. But while both Van Brocklin and Waterfield would end up in the Hall of Fame, neither player is well known today by most fans.

A few years later, the Giants would have Don Heinrich as the nominal starter for the first series or two before having Charlie Conerly come in and replace him one the coaching staff had a better read on the opposing defense. Sure the team won the NFL championship in 1956 using this method, but New York ultimately lost the championship to Baltimore in both ’58 and ’59, and neither Heinrich nor Conerly were able to slow down Johnny Unitas in either gmae. In John Eisenberg’s great book on the late ’50s Green Bay Packers, he explained how Vince Lombardi treated Bart Starr like a yo-yo, inserting him and out of the lineup. And while Starr would achieve some success in the ’60s, he ultimately failed as head coach of the Packers in the ’70s and ’80s, going 52-76-3 in 9 uneventful seasons.
[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Jets, Mark Sanchez, QB controversies, Sarcasm, Tim Tebow

{ 9 comments }

The top receivers and the men who threw to them

by Chase Stuart on July 20, 2012

in Passing, Receiving

Let’s start with some trivia before moving to today’s post:

Only two quarterback-receiver pairs have ever topped the 10,000 yard mark. Can you name them?

Hint: Select Show

The same quarterback was part of both pairs.

Hint:	Select Show
The same quarterback was part of both pairs.

Only two receivers (minimum: 7,000 yards) gained at least 93% of their career receiving yards from one quarterback. Do you know who they are?

Hint: Select Show

The same quarterback was part of both pairs, but this is a different quarterback than from question 1.

Hint:	Select Show
The same quarterback was part of both pairs, but this is a different quarterback than from question 1.

Two of the men in the top ten in career receiving yards can credit the same quarterback account for more of their yards than any other passer. Can you name that quarterback?

Hint Select Show

The receivers won a Super Bowl ring, but the quarterback never did.

Hint	Select Show
The receivers won a Super Bowl ring, but the quarterback never did.

Can you name the receiver who gained over 10,000 yards in his career, but the quarterback from whom he gained the most yards was… Quincy Carter?

Hint Select Show

Spoiler: Quincy Carter wasn’t very good.

Hint	Select Show
Spoiler: Quincy Carter wasn’t very good.

Among the top twenty-five leaders in career receiving yards, can you guess which player was the only one to fail to catch at least 20% of his yards from a single quarterback?

Hint Select Show

One of his quarterbacks was Dan Marino.

Hint	Select Show
One of his quarterbacks was Dan Marino.

[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Andre Rison, Harold Jackson, Joey Galloway, Keyshawn Johnson, Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne

{ 11 comments }

Quarterback wins over Pythagoras

by Chase Stuart on July 18, 2012

in Passing, Statistics

No, this article isn’t an article about quarterbacks squaring off against ancient Greek mathematicians. Today, we’re going to look at quarterback win-loss records and see how they compare to their Pythagorean win-loss records.

Over 30 years ago, Bill James wrote that, on average, baseball teams’ true strengths could be measured more accurately by looking at runs scored and runs allowed than by looking at wins and losses. Since then, sports statisticians have applied the same thinking to all sports. The formula to calculate a team’s Pythagorean winning percentage is always some variation of:

(Points Scored^2) / (Points Scored ^2 + Points Allowed^2)

With the exponent changing from 2 to whatever number best fits the data for the particular sport. In football, that number is 2.53. We can look, for example, at the Pythagorean records for each team in the league last season, and line it up against their actual record:

Year	Tm	Record	Win%	PF	PA	Pyth Wins	Diff
2011	KAN	7-9	0.438	212	338	3.76	3.24
2011	GNB	15-1	0.938	560	359	12.08	2.92
2011	DEN	8-8	0.500	309	390	5.71	2.29
2011	OAK	8-8	0.500	359	433	6.14	1.86
2011	NWE	13-3	0.813	513	342	11.78	1.22
2011	NYG	9-7	0.563	394	400	7.85	1.15
2011	ARI	8-8	0.500	312	348	6.9	1.1
2011	TAM	4-12	0.250	287	494	3.23	0.77
2011	TEN	9-7	0.563	325	317	8.25	0.75
2011	NOR	13-3	0.813	547	339	12.33	0.67
2011	BAL	12-4	0.750	378	266	11.34	0.66
2011	ATL	10-6	0.625	402	350	9.39	0.61
2011	SFO	13-3	0.813	380	229	12.52	0.48
2011	CIN	9-7	0.563	344	323	8.64	0.36
2011	PIT	12-4	0.750	325	227	11.4	0.6
2011	MIA	6-10	0.375	329	313	8.5	-2.5
2011	MIN	3-13	0.188	340	449	5.3	-2.3
2011	PHI	8-8	0.500	396	328	9.87	-1.87
2011	CAR	6-10	0.375	406	429	7.44	-1.44
2011	SEA	7-9	0.438	321	315	8.19	-1.19
2011	IND	2-14	0.125	243	430	3.05	-1.05
2011	HOU	10-6	0.625	381	278	11.03	-1.03
2011	SDG	8-8	0.500	406	377	8.75	-0.75
2011	CLE	4-12	0.250	218	307	4.74	-0.74
2011	WAS	5-11	0.313	288	367	5.62	-0.62
2011	DAL	8-8	0.500	369	347	8.62	-0.62
2011	BUF	6-10	0.375	372	434	6.46	-0.46
2011	NYJ	8-8	0.500	377	363	8.38	-0.38
2011	CHI	8-8	0.500	353	341	8.35	-0.35
2011	STL	2-14	0.125	193	407	2.1	-0.1
2011	JAX	5-11	0.313	243	329	5.08	-0.08
2011	DET	10-6	0.625	474	387	10.01	-0.01

[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Bart Starr, Dan Marino, Eli Manning, Jake Plummer, Peyton Manning, Pythagorean, Steve Young, Terry Bradshaw, Tom Brady, Troy Aikman

{ 2 comments }

Random Perspective On: The 2012 New Orleans Saints

by Chase Stuart on July 17, 2012

in History, Passing, Random Perspective On, Statistics

One of my law school professors was very quirky, even by law school professor standards. His preferred examination method was multiple choice, but with a twist. After grading each exam, he would then divide the students into quarters based on their test score. He would then re-examine each question, and measure how the top quarter of students performed on each question relative to the bottom quarter. Any question that more bottom-quarter students answered correctly than top-quarter students would be thrown out, and the exam would be re-graded. As he delicately put out, ‘if the wrong students are getting the question right, and the right students are getting the question wrong, it’s a bad question.’

NFL passing records are falling for a variety of reasons these days, including rules changes and league policies that make the passing game more effective. But there’s another reason: for the first time in awhile, the right people are throwing the most passes in the league. And there’s no better example of that than Drew Brees. Since coming to the Saints in 2006, he’s ranked 1st or 2nd in pass attempts four times, and ranked in the top three in net yards per attempt four times. But even since ’06, we’ve seen the passing game evolve, as the best quarterbacks are now the most likely ones to finish near the top of the leaderboard in pass attempts. In 2010, Peyton Manning had his first 600-attempt season… when he threw 679 passes for the Colts. Tom Brady threw 611 passes last year for the 13-3 Patriots, making New England one of just three teams to threw 600 pass attempts and win 13 or more games in a season. The other two teams? The ’09 Colts and the ’11 Saints.

At various points in the history of the NFL, passing was viewed as an alternative to running, and the high-attempt game was the province of the trailing team. But times are changing in the NFL. I calculated each team’s net yards per attempt (NY/A) and total pass attempts (attempts plus sacks) for every year since 1970. Then, I measured the correlation coefficient between NY/A and pass attempts for the league for each of the last 42 seasons. The chart below shows the correlation coefficient between those two variables (NY/A and pass attempts) for the league as a whole for each year since the merger:
[continue reading…]

Tagged as: 1978 Rules Changes, Drew Brees, NFC South, RPO 2012, Saints, Simpson’s Paradox

{ 1 comment }

Franchise leaders — passing stats

by Chase Stuart on July 4, 2012

in Passing

Happy 4th of July! Before you head to your barbecue, I’d recommend you take a look at the incredible document our founders signed 236 years ago.

As far as football goes, today’s a good time for a data dump. The table below shows the career passing leaders for each franchise, organized by when the current leader last played for that team.

Team	Yards	Quarterback	Last Yr
NWE	39979	Tom Brady	–
NOR	28394	Drew Brees	–
HOU	16903	Matt Schaub	–
BAL	13816	Joe Flacco	–
IND	54828	Peyton Manning	2011
SEA	29434	Matt Hasselbeck	2010
PHI	32873	Donovan McNabb	2009
CAR	19258	Jake Delhomme	2009
GNB	61655	Brett Favre	2007
JAX	25698	Mark Brunell	2003
DAL	32942	Troy Aikman	2000
MIA	61361	Dan Marino	1999
DEN	51475	John Elway	1998
BUF	35467	Jim Kelly	1996
TEN	33685	Warren Moon	1993
NYG	33462	Phil Simms	1993
STL	23758	Jim Everett	1993
SFO	35124	Joe Montana	1992
TAM	14820	Vinny Testaverde	1992
SDG	43040	Dan Fouts	1987
CIN	32838	Ken Anderson	1986
WAS	25206	Joe Theismann	1985
ATL	23470	Steve Bartkowski	1985
ARI	34639	Jim Hart	1983
PIT	27989	Terry Bradshaw	1983
CLE	23713	Brian Sipe	1983
OAK	19078	Ken Stabler	1979
MIN	33098	Fran Tarkenton	1978
NYJ	27057	Joe Namath	1976
KAN	28507	Len Dawson	1975
DET	15710	Bobby Layne	1958
CHI	14686	Sid Luckman	1950

[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, John Elway, Mark Sanchez, Matt Stafford, Mike Vick, Peyton Manning, Robert Griffin III, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Tony Romo

{ 7 comments }

Largest increase in pass completions

by Chase Stuart on June 29, 2012

in Coaches, Passing

And then John said to Peyton, 'Tim Tebow.'

Fifteen days into its infancy, Football Perspective has published fifteen posts. If you are enjoying the site, be sure to check back every day for a new post. You can also become one of the 850+ people to “like” Football Perspective on Facebook. You can also follow me on twitter. Enough of a site update: on to today’s post.

Unlike most sports writers, I don’t know a lot about what will happen this season. But there’s one thing I do know: the Denver Broncos aren’t going to rank 32nd again in pass attempts again. The Tebow Broncos, an offense with an inexperienced quarterback and a confused offensive coordinator, completed just 217 passes last season. That was the lowest in the league, and the lowest since the ’09 Jets, a team that boasted the number one rushing attack and defense in the league — and Mark Sanchez.

Setting aside those years where the league scheduled more games in the following season, the table below shows the teams with the largest increase in completions from one year (that’s the year listed in the table) to the next:

Year	Tm	Cmp N	Cmp N+1	Difference	QB Year N	QB Year N+1	HC Year N	HC Year N+1
1978	SFO	190	361	171	Steve DeBerg	Steve DeBerg	Pete McCulley ^[1]In 1978, the 49ers fired McCulley after 9 games and Fred O'Connor coached the rest of the season.	Bill Walsh
2000	TAM	237	362	125	Shaun King	Brad Johnson	Tony Dungy	Tony Dungy
2004	ARI	299	419	120	Josh McCown	Kurt Warner	Dennis Green	Dennis Green
1998	CHI	284	404	120	Erik Kramer	Shane Matthews	Dave Wannstedt	Dick Jauron
1993	NWE	289	405	116	Drew Bledsoe	Drew Bledsoe	Bill Parcells	Bill Parcells
2000	CIN	207	322	115	Akili Smith	Jon Kitna	Dick LeBeau ^[2]In 2000, Bruce Coslet was the Bengals coach to start the season, but he resigned after three straight blowouts to begin the year.	Dick LeBeau
1957	PHI	99	214	115	Bobby Thomason	Norm Van Brocklin	Hugh Devore	Buck Shaw
2006	ATL	222	336	114	Michael Vick	Joey Harrington	Jim Mora	Bobby Petrino
1983	MIA	254	367	113	Dan Marino	Dan Marino	Don Shula	Don Shula
1994	DET	250	362	112	Dave Krieg	Scott Mitchell	Wayne Fontes	Wayne Fontes
1978	BAL	202	313	111	Bill Troup	Greg Landry	Ted Marchibroda	Ted Marchibroda
2008	MIN	267	377	110	Gus Frerotte	Brett Favre	Brad Childress	Brad Childress
2008	SEA	262	372	110	Seneca Wallace	Matt Hasselbeck	Mike Holmgren	Jim Mora
1989	HOU	295	399	104	Warren Moon	Warren Moon	Jerry Glanville	Jack Pardee
2001	SEA	258	361	103	Matt Hasselbeck	Matt Hasselbeck	Mike Holmgren	Mike Holmgren
1988	NWE	199	302	103	Doug Flutie	Steve Grogan	Raymond Berry	Raymond Berry
1979	HOU	195	296	101	Dan Pastorini	Ken Stabler	Bum Phillips	Bum Phillips
1996	SEA	261	359	98	Rick Mirer	Warren Moon	Dennis Erickson	Dennis Erickson
1999	PHI	235	331	96	Doug Pederson	Donovan McNabb	Andy Reid	Andy Reid
1993	MIN	315	409	94	Jim McMahon	Warren Moon	Dennis Green	Dennis Green
1985	CLE	222	315	93	Bernie Kosar	Bernie Kosar	Marty Schottenheimer	Marty Schottenheimer
1993	NOR	274	366	92	Wade Wilson	Jim Everett	Jim Mora	Jim Mora
1992	DEN	258	350	92	John Elway	John Elway	Dan Reeves	Wade Phillips
1972	PHI	184	275	91	John Reaves	Roman Gabriel	Ed Khayat	Mike McCormack
1950	GNB	140	231	91	Tobin Rote	Bobby Thomason	Gene Ronzani	Gene Ronzani
2011	DEN	217	–	–	Tim Tebow	Peyton Manning	John Fox	John Fox

[continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	In 1978, the 49ers fired McCulley after 9 games and Fred O'Connor coached the rest of the season.
↑2	In 2000, Bruce Coslet was the Bengals coach to start the season, but he resigned after three straight blowouts to begin the year.

Tagged as: Bill Walsh, Broncos, Peyton Manning, Tim Tebow

{ 5 comments }

Examining passing distribution in the NFL since 1970

by Chase Stuart on June 25, 2012

in History, Passing

Jimmy Graham's invisible mirror displays his uniform as aesthetically pleasing

Last year, Jimmy Graham broke Kellen Winslow’s record for receiving yards in a single season by a tight end. Winslow gained 1,290 yards as a second-year player in 1980 for the San Diego Chargers. Last year, Graham finished with 1,310 receiving yards in his second season, while also catching 99 passes and scoring 11 touchdowns. Graham broke Winslow’s 31-year-old record, but Graham was leapfrogged in about fifteen minutes. By the end of the last Sunday of the regular season, Rob Gronkowski had upped his total to 1,327 yards, making him the new single-season leader in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns by a tight end.

Jason Witten and Aaron Hernandez each topped 900 receiving yards in 2011, and Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates and Vernon Davis remain among the game’s elite at the position. It would not be difficult to argue that we’re in a golden age of tight ends. There’s no doubt that passing has increased in both quantity and quality; have tight ends been the biggest beneficiaries of that change?

I examined every season in the NFL since 1970, when the AFL and NFL merged. I then calculated the percentage of receiving yards for each team that went to its running backs, tight ends and wide receivers. The table below shows those results^[1]Some caveats: Obviously many players straddle the line across multiple positions. There are some judgment calls involved with H-Backs, tight ends turned wide receivers, running backs turned tight … Continue reading.

[continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	Some caveats: Obviously many players straddle the line across multiple positions. There are some judgment calls involved with H-Backs, tight ends turned wide receivers, running backs turned tight ends, etc. I did my best to make the appropriate call in each case. Note also that for this article, I’ve eliminated all players who ended the season with negative receiving yards, and am only looking at receiving yards by running backs (which includes fullbacks), receivers and tight ends.

Tagged as: 1978 Rules Changes, Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Tight Ends

{ 11 comments }

Correlating passing stats with wins

by Chase Stuart on June 18, 2012

in Passing, Statistics

Which stats should be used to analyze quarterback play? That question has mystified the NFL for at least the last 80 years. In the 1930s, the NFL first used total yards gained and later completion percentage to determine the league’s top passer. Various systems emerged over the next three decades, but none of them were capable of separating the best quarterbacks from the merely very good. Finally, a special committee, headed by Don Smith of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, came up with the most complicated formula yet to grade the passers. Adopted in 1973, the NFL has used passer rating ever since to crown its ‘passing’ champion.

Nearly all football fans have issues with passer rating. Some argue that it’s hopelessly confusing; others simply think it just doesn’t work. But there are some who believe in the power of passer rating, like Cold Hard Football Facts founder Kerry Byrne. A recent post on a Cowboys fan site talked about Dallas’ need to improve their passer rating differential. Passer rating will always have supporters for one reason: it has been, is, and always will be correlated with winning. It is easy to test how closely correlated two variables are; in this case, passer rating (or any other statistic) and wins. The correlation coefficient is a measure of the linear relationship between two variables on a scale from -1 to 1. Essentially, if two variables move in the same direction, their correlation coefficient them will be close to 1. If two variables move with each other but in opposite directions (say, the temperature outside and the amount of your heating bill), the CC will be closer to -1. If the two variables have no relationship at all, the CC will be close to zero.

The table below measures the correlation coefficient of certain statistics with wins. The data consists of all quarterbacks who started at least 14 games in a season from 1990 to 2011:

Category	Correlation
ANY/A ^[1]Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, calculated as follows: (Passing Yards + 20Passing Touchdowns - 45Interceptions - Sack Yards Lost) / (Pass Attempts + Sacks)	0.55
Passer Rating	0.51
NY/A ^[2]Net Yards per attempt, which includes sack yards lost in the numerator and sacks in the denominator.	0.50
Touchdown/Attempt	0.44
Yards/Att	0.43
Comp %	0.32
Interceptions/Att	-0.31
Sack Rate	-0.28
Passing Yards	0.16
Attempts	-0.14

As you can see, passer rating is indeed correlated with wins; a correlation coefficient of 0.51 indicates a moderately strong relationship; the two variables (passer rating and wins) are clearly correlated to some degree. Interception rate is also correlated with wins; there is a ‘-‘ sign next to the correlation coefficient because of the negative relationship, but that says nothing about the strength of the relationship. As we would suspect, as interception rate increases, wins decrease. On the other hand, passing yards bears almost no relationships with wins — this is exactly what Alex Smith was talking about last month:
[continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, calculated as follows: (Passing Yards + 20Passing Touchdowns - 45Interceptions - Sack Yards Lost) / (Pass Attempts + Sacks)
↑2	Net Yards per attempt, which includes sack yards lost in the numerator and sacks in the denominator.

Tagged as: Correlation Coefficient, Passer Rating, Regression

{ 45 comments }