Just about every article about Trent Richardson references his unimpressive 3.6 yards per carry average from last season. That stat is pretty meaningless, in my opinion. I suppose if you took a random running back from NFL history, and his YPC average in one random season was 3.6, and I knew nothing else about the player, I suppose I would probably assume that the running back was not (or was not going to become) a star. But Richardson isn’t a random running back from a database, because…

• His 3.6 YPC average came on 267 carries, which represented 77% of all carries by Cleveland running backs
• He was a rookie last year
• He was a high first round pick

Since 1970, only 13 first round rookies have recorded 70% of all running back carries by their team. Two of those players were Richardson and Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin last year. Of that group, Richardson did post the lowest YPC average, but he was within 0.1 YPC of LaDainian Tomlinson. The next two lowest averages belong to Robert Edwards and Emmitt Smith; the former suffered a career-debilitating injury in a beach football game after his rookie season, while the latter ran for the most yards in NFL history.

Yeah, Richardson’s yards per carry average was well below average. But the universe of first round running backs who became workhorses right away as rookies and had a low YPC average consists of a HOF running back, a future HOF running back, and a player who suffered the flukiest of injuries. Richardson has something else in common with Emmitt Smith: after both of their rookie seasons, Norv Turner came on board as offensive coordinator.

But let’s say you don’t want to give Richardson any credit for his draft status. And you’re not in the mood to give him a pass just because he was a rookie. OK. Since 1990, 48 running backs have averaged fewer than 3.8 yards per carry while recording at least 70% of all running back carries for their team. Twenty-six of those players were at least 27 years old, and on the back half of their careers. Here are the other 22 running backs:
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Yesterday, I looked at the players who threw for the most yards and touchdowns against each franchise. Today I will do the same but with rushing statistics.

But before going on, I’d urge you to take a few minutes and re-read this incredible document our founders signed 237 years ago. It’s great having a day off in the summer to barbecue and celebrate with family and friends, but it’s important to take a few moments and remember what this holiday really means. Like preventing this site from becoming Futbol Perspective.

Let’s again start with a bit of trivia. Do you know which player has rushed for the most yards against any one opponent?

What about the most rushing touchdowns?

Let’s take a look at the players who have rushed for the most yards against each franchise:
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I’ve spent a lot of time this offseason looking at how to grade wide receivers; today I wanted to get some initial thoughts down on paper on running backs.

I’m short on time today, which means a lot of data and not so much theory. One of the more underrated statistics to measure running backs is the number of first downs they produce. I don’t like using Yards per Carry for running backs because that metric is pretty sensitive to outliers. But by using rushing first downs, perhaps we can smooth things out.

We know that the value of a touchdown is about 20 yards, but what is the value of a rushing first down? Being short on time, I took the easy way out. Pro-Football-Reference has produced Expected Points Added for each team’s running game going back to 2000. I decided to run a regression on the team level to best predict rushing EPA based on four rushing statistics. The R^2 was 0.77, but more importantly, here was the best fit formula:

EPA = -16.6 -0.58*Rush + 0.067*Rush_Yd + 1.43*Rush_TD + 1.08*Rush_FD

What interests me is the relationships between the variables. Rushing touchdowns are considered 21.3 times as valuable as rushing yards, which happens to fit in well with our previous assumptions. But more importantly, this tells us that a rushing first down is worth 16.1 rushing yards. That seems pretty high to me, and I reserve the right to adjust this later, but for now, let’s adjust down and say the value of a rushing first down is 15 yards. Now what?
[continue reading…]

Green Bay didn’t use a first round pick on a running back, but the Packers did spend a second round pick on Alabama’s Eddie Lacy and a fourth round pick on UCLA’s Johnathan Franklin.  How much weight should we put on draft status when one team drafts two running backs just a couple of rounds apart?  One school of thought is that the Packers liked both players and are maximizing their odds of finding a star; another is that Green Bay prefers Lacy and wants him to win the job, since he was their first choice.  Here’s another thing to consider, courtesy of my good buddy Sigmund Bloom: the Packers traded down to grab Lacy and traded up to draft Franklin, indicating that perhaps the Packers were higher on Franklin than you might think.

How rare is it for teams to double dip at the running back position like this? That depends on how you want to categorize what the Packers did. I think a reasonable comparison would be to look at all teams that:

• Did not draft a running back in the first round but drafted one in the second or third rounds (this excludes combinations like Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington); and
• Then drafted a different running back within the next two rounds

Since 1970, only 34 teams have met those criteria, meaning this is a strategy employed roughly three times every four years. In three instances, a team drafted three running backs that met those two criteria, and we’ll deal with them at the end of this post. I’m going to exclude three teams that drafted fullbacks after selecting halfbacks, as the 2008 Lions (drafted Jerome Felton after Kevin Smith), 2003 Ravens (Ovie Mughelli after Musa Smith), and 1999 Dolphins (Rob Konrad after J.J. Johnson) don’t really fit the intent of the post. That leaves us with 28 pairs of running backs. The table below lists each pair. On the left, you will see the first running back drafted, his round and overall pick, his rookie rushing yards, his rookie fantasy points total (using 0.5 points per reception), and his career rushing yards; on the right, the same information is presented for the second running back drafted. The far right column shows the difference between the two players in terms of fantasy points during their rookie year. For example, Stevan Ridley scored 41 more points than Shane Vereen in 2011, even though the Patriots drafted Vereen first.
[continue reading…]

The Packers have gone 43 consecutive regular season games without having a 100-yard rusher. Not coincidentally, Green Bay drafted Alabama’s Eddie Lacy and UCLA’s Johnathan Franklin in the draft last weekend, hoping that one of those players can bolster the team’s rushing attack.

Brandon Jackson rushed for 115 yards in an overtime loss against the Redskins on October 10, 2010. How long ago was that? Washington’s quarterback that day was Donovan McNabb. Two months later, Jackson rushed for 99 yards in a loss in Foxboro, and Ryan Grant had 92 rushing yards in a September victory in Chicago in 2011, but no Packer has hit the century mark in a regular season game since October 10th, 2010. (It’s worth noting that James Starks rushed for 123 yards in a playoff victory against the Eagles in the 2010 playoffs, but NFL game streaks routinely exclude postseason performances.)

The table below lists all teams since 1960 to go at least 32 games without a 100-yard rusher. Here’s how the second row of the table reads: The Washington Redskins went 72 games without a 100-yard rusher. The team’s last 100-yard rusher came in a game on December 17, 1961, and the streak finally ended on September 24, 1967. The player to break the streak was Bobby Mitchell, and you can see the boxscore from that game in the final column.
[continue reading…]

[House-keeping note: I’ve added the Salary Cap Calculator to the gray header tabs at the top of each page, so you can now easily get there no matter what page you’re on at Football Perspective.]

A quick look at Arian Foster‘s statistics over the last three years paints a picture of a player in decline:

Foster’s declined in rushing yards per game and yards per carry over the last two years, while his value in the receiving game fell off a cliff in 2012. One could reasonably conclude that Foster simply isn’t the same player he used to be, and that he could drop off even more in 2013.  But while the traditional statistics tell one story, what do the advanced metrics say?
[continue reading…]

In the pre-season, I wrote three pieces on Cleveland Browns rookie Trent Richardson.  As part of a thought experiment, I wondered who would lead the NFL in rushing yards from 2012 to 2021? I narrowed my finalists to LeSean McCoy, Beanie Wells (was I drunk?), DeMarco Murray (ouch), Richardson and the rest of the rookies, and then a few college running backs. I concluded that Richardson was the obvious frontrunner, with McCoy, Doug Martin, and Marcus Lattimore (double ouch) as the next best bets. I’m not really sure 2012 helped clarify the issue, although Martin and Alfred Morris certainly raised their chances.

Then in August, I looked at the production of the highest drafted running back in each draft class.  I discovered that slightly fewer than half of the highest drafted running backs led their class ^[1]Note that this only includes drafted running backs. in rushing yards as a rookie; as you can see, “the field” also turned out to be a better bet than Richardson in 2012:

In that post, I also noted that the running back drafted first in his class was slightly less successful over the course of his career: only one-third of the highest-drafted running backs finished with the most career rushing yards in their class.

The final post on the topic ended up being more relevant to Alfred Morris than Richardson. In August, I compared how the top rookie running back performed over the rest of his career relative to the other members of his class. From 1992 to 2002, 10 of the 11 backs to lead their class in rushing yards as rookies ended up finishing with the most career rushing yards. But in recent years, that trend has reversed itself: the odds are long that Ben Tate (2011), LeGarrette Blount (2010), Knowshon Moreno (2009 and competing with Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy), or Steve Slaton (2008) will also finish with the best careers from their class.

So where do we stand on Richardson and Morris? A year later, how much credit do we give Richardson for having been the #3 pick in the draft? For Morris, how much do we downgrade him for being a 6th round pick? And how does the presence of Robert Griffin III complicate things?
[continue reading…]

A week before the Super Bowl, I asked if you could name the seven wide receivers to start for two different teams that reached the Super Bowl. In the comments to that post, JWL alerted me to a pretty cool piece of Super bowl trivia.

Eight different men have been the leading rusher in multiple Super Bowls. Seven of these men (Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants; Antowain Smith, New England Patriots; Terrell Davis, Denver Broncos; Emmitt Smith, Dallas Cowboys; Tony Dorsett, Dallas Cowboys; Franco Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers; and Larry Csonka, Miami Dolphins) pulled off this feat while playing for the same team.

However, one running has been the leading rusher in two Super Bowls for two different teams. He’s the subject of today’s trivia question. Can you name him?

Regular readers surely recall my “What are the Odds of That” post from this summer. In that article, I referenced an obscured Jacoby Jones stat: in 2011, he gained three times as many receiving yards against teams at the back end of the alphabet as he did against the teams he faced in the front of the alphabet. Then I asked, “what are the odds of that?”

This is a very good reason why it’s often inappropriate to apply standard significance tests to football statistics. Surely Jones’ splits would pass any standard significance test, signaling that his wild split was in fact “real” even though we know it wasn’t. With a large enough sample, you would expect to have false positives, which isn’t a knock on standard significant testing. If something is statistically significant at the 1% level, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t expect to see a false positive if you have 100 different samples…
…
Some in the statistical community refer to this as the Wyatt Earp Effect. You’ve undoubtedly heard of Wyatt Earp, who is famous precisely because he survived a large number of duels. What are the odds of that? Well, it depends on your perspective. The odds that one person would survive a large number of duels? Given enough time, it becomes a statistical certainty that someone would do just that. Think back to the famous Warren Buffett debate on the efficient market hypothesis. Suppose that 225 million Americans partake in a single elimination national coin-flipping contest, with one coin flip per day. After 20 days, we would expect 215 people to successfully call their coin flips 20 times out of 20. But that doesn’t mean those 215 people are any better at calling coins than you or I am. The Wyatt Earp Effect, the National Coin Flipping Example, and my Splits Happen post all illustrate the same principle. Asking “what are the odds of that?” is often meaningless in retrospect. If you look at enough things, enough players’ splits, enough 4th quarter comeback opportunities, enough coin flips, or enough roulette wheel spins, you will see some things that seem absurdly unlikely.

In December, I highlighted Matt Schaub’s struggles in night games compared to day games as yet another example. Well now, Ray Rice is the latest protagonist in What are the Odds of That? In case you missed it, Rice fumbled twice in Baltimore’s playoff win over Indianapolis, with the Colts recovering both times. Rice has struggled with fumbles in the playoffs in the past, but he’s always been outstanding during the regular season at holding on to the ball. In 2012, he lost just one fumble — which went harmlessly out of bounds — giving him a clean record for the season. So what’s going on? Here’s what Bill Barnwell wrote earlier this week:
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A couple of weeks ago, I heard my buddy and co-worker Sigmund Bloom say on the Footballguys Podcast that Jamaal Charles was having one of the craziest seasons ever. As Sigmund noted, Charles has been an incredibly frustrating fantasy player. This year, he had three games with 10 or fewer rushing yards… and he also became the first player in NFL history with two games with over 225 rushing yards in the same season.

Did you know that Kansas City finished 2012 fifth in carries? Under Todd Haley, Chiefs fans and fantasy football players were constantly frustrated by Thomas Jones, who Haley seemed to always find a way to give an extra ten carries to. This year, under Romeo Crennel, Peyton Hillis was the complementary back, but he was not nearly as predatory. Still, while Charles finally received the lion’s share of the carries, he was once again an inconsistent fantasy player.

Take a look at Charles’ weekly game logs:

That’s a pretty incredible distribution, but how crazy is it?

I looked at the standard deviation of every game by every player in a season with at least 1,000 rushing yards from 1960 to 2011. As it turns out, Charles has had one of the most inconsistent seasons ever. While he gained 1,509 rushing yards, he had a standard deviation of 71.4 yards. That may not mean anything to you in the abstract, but it would place him as the 4th most inconsistent back since 1960.
[continue reading…]

Yesterday, I noted that Adrian Peterson is averaging nearly two more yards per rush in losses than wins. He’s also averaging a nearly identical number of rushing yards per game in wins and losses.

As you’re about to see, that’s pretty rare. We all know that wins are correlated with rushing yards, so it should come as no surprise that running backs generally gain more rushing yards in wins than in losses.

I looked at all games, including playoffs, from 1960 to 2011, for all players with at least 3,000 rushing yards over that time period. The table below lists the following information for each player:

— His first year (or 1960, if he played before 1960) and his last year (or 2011, if still active)
— All the franchises he played for (which you can search for in the search box)
— His number of career wins, and his career rush attempts, rushing yards, rushing yards per carry, and rushing yards per game in wins
— His number of career losses, and his career rush attempts, rushing yards, rushing yards per carry, and rushing yards per game in losses

The table is sorted by rushing yards per game in wins. Again, for players like Jim Brown or Peterson, they are included but only their stats from 1960 to 2011 are shown. The table only shows the top 50 players, but the search feature works for the entire table, which includes 281 players. In addition, you can click on the drop arrow and change the number of rows shown.

As always, the table is fully sortable. If you click twice on the far right column, you see the career leaders in rushing yards per game in losses. You probably aren’t surprised to see Barry Sanders at the top, but the presence of the running back formerly known as Dom Davis up there is a bit surprising. Steven Jackson is one of the few players who have averaged over 70 rushing yards per game in losses, which jives with the sixth post in Football Perspective history. In addition, Jackson (at least through 2011) and LaDainian Tomlinson form an interesting example of Simpson’s Paradox: Jackson has a higher career rushing yards per game average in both wins (93.9 to 89.9) and losses (71.1 to 63.2), while Tomlinson has the higher career average overall (78.6 to 78.3).

Rk	Player	Years	Teams	Pos	W	Rsh_W	Yd_W	YPC_W	Yd/G_W	L	Rsh_L	Yd_L	YPC_L	Yd/G_L
1	Jim Brown	1960--1965	cle	FB	55	1176	6590	5.6	119.8	25	384	1706	4.44	68.2
2	Terrell Davis	1995--2001	den	RB	58	1415	6867	4.85	118.4	28	444	1880	4.23	67.1
3	Barry Sanders	1989--1998	det	RB	75	1670	8526	5.11	113.7	84	1483	7129	4.81	84.9
4	Eric Dickerson	1983--1993	ram-clt-rai-atl	RB	74	1776	8411	4.74	113.7	78	1368	5572	4.07	71.4
5	O.J. Simpson	1969--1979	buf-sfo	RB	43	950	4818	5.07	112	92	1442	6351	4.4	69
6	Earl Campbell	1978--1985	oti-nor	RB	50	1209	5409	4.47	108.2	70	1113	4418	3.97	63.1
7	Adrian Peterson	2007--2011	min	RB	38	792	4002	5.05	105.3	38	685	3018	4.41	79.4
8	Chris Johnson	2008--2011	oti	RB	36	772	3776	4.89	104.9	28	426	1941	4.56	69.3
9	Clinton Portis	2002--2010	den-was	RB	58	1281	6051	4.72	104.3	59	1019	4086	4.01	69.3
10	Arian Foster	2009--2011	htx	RB	20	428	2077	4.85	103.9	16	282	1305	4.63	81.6
11	Emmitt Smith	1990--2004	dal-crd	RB	135	3036	13198	4.35	97.8	108	1722	6743	3.92	62.4
12	Jamal Lewis	2000--2009	rav-cle	RB	74	1653	7193	4.35	97.2	63	1019	3840	3.77	61
13	Walter Payton	1975--1987	chi	RB	113	2460	10975	4.46	97.1	86	1558	6383	4.1	74.2
14	Larry Johnson	2003--2011	kan-cin-was-mia	RB	40	813	3842	4.73	96.1	43	627	2413	3.85	56.1
15	Edgerrin James	1999--2009	clt-crd-sea	RB	99	2251	9469	4.21	95.6	62	995	3629	3.65	58.5
16	Billy Sims	1980--1984	det	RB	30	603	2861	4.74	95.4	32	554	2378	4.29	74.3
17	Curtis Martin	1995--2005	nwe-nyj	RB	96	2235	9134	4.09	95.1	82	1465	5762	3.93	70.3
18	Frank Gore	2005--2011	sfo	RB	47	939	4422	4.71	94.1	55	743	3366	4.53	61.2
19	Jamaal Charles	2008--2011	kan	RB	16	218	1504	6.9	94	34	290	1605	5.53	47.2
20	Steven Jackson	2004--2011	ram	RB	37	769	3473	4.52	93.9	80	1388	5688	4.1	71.1
21	Shaun Alexander	2000--2008	sea-was	RB	73	1506	6607	4.39	90.5	59	850	3410	4.01	57.8
22	LaDainian Tomlinson	2001--2011	sdg-nyj	RB	104	2048	9346	4.56	89.9	76	1257	4806	3.82	63.2
23	Corey Dillon	1997--2006	cin-nwe	RB	72	1391	6460	4.64	89.7	86	1347	5289	3.93	61.5
24	Rudi Johnson	2001--2008	cin-det	RB	41	901	3672	4.08	89.6	52	629	2363	3.76	45.4
25	Eddie George	1996--2004	oti-dal	RB	90	2094	7863	3.76	87.4	60	977	3354	3.43	55.9
26	Wilbert Montgomery	1977--1985	phi-det	RB	55	1016	4766	4.69	86.7	54	652	2513	3.85	46.5
27	Fred Taylor	1998--2010	jax-nwe	RB	89	1588	7674	4.83	86.2	72	1075	4634	4.31	64.4
28	Jamal Anderson	1994--2001	atl	RB	37	767	3189	4.16	86.2	47	632	2423	3.83	51.6
29	Gale Sayers	1965--1971	chi	RB	29	426	2492	5.85	85.9	36	510	2122	4.16	58.9
30	Barry Foster	1990--1994	pit	RB	35	704	2997	4.26	85.6	23	275	1230	4.47	53.5
31	Curt Warner	1983--1990	sea-ram	RB	55	1133	4704	4.15	85.5	48	636	2389	3.76	49.8
32	Matt Forte	2008--2011	chi	RB	35	661	2985	4.52	85.3	27	395	1398	3.54	51.8
33	Cookie Gilchrist	1962--1967	buf-den-mia	FB	34	625	2871	4.59	84.4	31	372	1381	3.71	44.5
34	William Andrews	1979--1986	atl	RB	43	749	3609	4.82	83.9	42	586	2439	4.16	58.1
35	Marshall Faulk	1994--2005	clt-ram	RB	99	1774	8307	4.68	83.9	89	1227	4574	3.73	51.4
36	John Henry Johnson	1960--1966	pit-oti	FB-HB	32	589	2682	4.55	83.8	38	435	1718	3.95	45.2
37	Tony Dorsett	1977--1988	dal-den	RB	121	2237	10137	4.53	83.8	68	1001	3985	3.98	58.6
38	Jerome Bettis	1993--2005	ram-pit	RB	111	2333	9274	3.98	83.5	93	1345	5062	3.76	54.4
39	Priest Holmes	1997--2007	rav-kan	RB	61	1093	5077	4.65	83.2	49	729	3316	4.55	67.7
40	Ricky Watters	1992--2001	sfo-phi-sea	RB	91	1823	7552	4.14	83	63	963	3720	3.86	59
41	Jim Nance	1965--1973	nwe-nyj	RB	30	571	2455	4.3	81.8	62	680	2585	3.8	41.7
42	Robert Smith	1993--2000	min	RB	63	1039	5146	4.95	81.7	41	517	2262	4.38	55.2
43	George Rogers	1981--1987	nor-was	RB	53	1009	4326	4.29	81.6	45	772	3128	4.05	69.5
44	Jim Taylor	1960--1967	gnb-nor	FB	81	1468	6576	4.48	81.2	31	401	1582	3.95	51
45	Travis Henry	2001--2007	buf-oti-den	RB	36	672	2906	4.32	80.7	52	816	3180	3.9	61.2
46	Willie Parker	2004--2009	pit	RB	55	977	4436	4.54	80.7	27	403	1413	3.51	52.3
47	Ray Rice	2008--2011	rav	RB	45	792	3627	4.58	80.6	22	274	1194	4.36	54.3
48	Maurice Jones-Drew	2006--2011	jax	RB	45	776	3616	4.66	80.4	50	722	3286	4.55	65.7
49	Deuce McAllister	2001--2008	nor	RB	50	913	4017	4.4	80.3	47	543	2240	4.13	47.7
50	Thurman Thomas	1988--2000	buf-mia	RB	130	2373	10378	4.37	79.8	71	843	3138	3.72	44.2
51	Terry Allen	1991--2001	min-was-nwe-nor-rav	RB	69	1303	5504	4.22	79.8	65	890	3263	3.67	50.2
52	Fred Jackson	2007--2011	buf	RB	25	393	1980	5.04	79.2	40	424	1814	4.28	45.4
53	Jonathan Stewart	2008--2011	car	RB	28	414	2217	5.36	79.2	35	314	1295	4.12	37
54	Franco Harris	1972--1984	pit-sea	RB	136	2553	10682	4.18	78.5	55	776	2924	3.77	53.2
55	John Riggins	1971--1985	nyj-was	RB	103	2048	8088	3.95	78.5	79	1119	4260	3.81	53.9
56	Tiki Barber	1997--2006	nyg	RB	80	1277	6269	4.91	78.4	80	1054	4632	4.39	57.9
57	Lydell Mitchell	1972--1980	clt-sdg-ram	RB	58	1103	4472	4.05	77.1	49	645	2280	3.53	46.5
58	Ricky Williams	1999--2011	nor-mia-rav	RB	81	1486	6221	4.19	76.8	70	967	3868	4	55.3
59	Greg Bell	1984--1990	buf-ram-rai	RB	35	596	2641	4.43	75.5	50	684	2676	3.91	53.5
60	Marshawn Lynch	2007--2011	buf-sea	RB	31	592	2337	3.95	75.4	43	568	2338	4.12	54.4
61	Stephen Davis	1996--2006	was-car-ram	RB	72	1234	5422	4.39	75.3	63	807	3101	3.84	49.2
62	LeSean McCoy	2009--2011	phi	RB	28	427	2100	4.92	75	20	225	996	4.43	49.8
63	Domanick Williams	2003--2005	htx	RB	12	226	898	3.97	74.8	28	544	2297	4.22	82
64	Hoyle Granger	1966--1972	oti-nor	RB	27	443	2013	4.54	74.6	38	358	1530	4.27	40.3
65	DeAngelo Williams	2006--2011	car	RB	38	557	2833	5.09	74.6	43	451	2277	5.05	53
66	Rodney Hampton	1990--1997	nyg	RB	56	1048	4122	3.93	73.6	51	826	2969	3.59	58.2
67	Ahman Green	1998--2009	sea-gnb-htx	RB	89	1416	6545	4.62	73.5	63	759	3181	4.19	50.5
68	Earnest Jackson	1983--1988	sdg-phi-pit	RB	31	544	2279	4.19	73.5	44	515	1888	3.67	42.9
69	Lawrence McCutcheon	1973--1981	ram-den-sea-buf	RB	75	1243	5462	4.39	72.8	38	422	1693	4.01	44.6
70	Freeman McNeil	1981--1992	nyj	RB	71	1132	5109	4.51	72	75	782	3364	4.3	44.9
71	Rashard Mendenhall	2008--2011	pit	RB	37	646	2643	4.09	71.4	17	228	954	4.18	56.1
72	Warrick Dunn	1997--2008	tam-atl	RB	98	1618	6996	4.32	71.4	92	1167	4371	3.75	47.5
73	Cedric Benson	2005--2011	chi-cin	RB	50	925	3568	3.86	71.4	45	647	2446	3.78	54.4
74	Natrone Means	1993--1999	sdg-jax	RB	55	1004	3917	3.9	71.2	39	549	1948	3.55	49.9
75	Gary Brown	1991--1999	oti-sdg-nyg	RB	40	619	2841	4.59	71	35	424	1476	3.48	42.2
76	Michael Turner	2004--2011	sdg-atl	RB	76	1130	5391	4.77	70.9	38	376	1457	3.88	38.3
77	Christian Okoye	1987--1992	kan	RB	44	780	3120	4	70.9	35	447	1771	3.96	50.6
78	Karim Abdul-Jabbar	1996--2000	mia-cle-clt	RB	33	651	2339	3.59	70.9	31	388	1188	3.06	38.3
79	Garrison Hearst	1993--2004	crd-cin-sfo-den	RB	76	1210	5385	4.45	70.9	55	681	2840	4.17	51.6
80	Joe Morris	1982--1991	nyg-cle	RB	63	1103	4460	4.04	70.8	50	448	1678	3.75	33.6
81	Johnny Johnson	1990--1994	crd-nyj	RB	24	428	1685	3.94	70.2	47	618	2393	3.87	50.9
82	Thomas Jones	2000--2011	crd-tam-chi-nyj-kan	RB	88	1541	6154	3.99	69.9	99	1262	4950	3.92	50
83	Chuck Muncie	1976--1984	nor-sdg	RB	51	817	3554	4.35	69.7	65	854	3664	4.29	56.4
84	Chuck Foreman	1973--1980	min-nwe	RB	77	1324	5318	4.02	69.1	38	426	1409	3.31	37.1
85	Ottis Anderson	1979--1992	crd-nyg	RB	94	1630	6489	3.98	69	80	1033	4217	4.08	52.7
86	Larry Csonka	1968--1979	mia-nyg	RB	91	1387	6223	4.49	68.4	64	691	2587	3.74	40.4
87	Randy McMillan	1981--1986	clt	RB	20	282	1365	4.84	68.3	66	695	2484	3.57	37.6
88	John Brockington	1971--1977	gnb-kan	RB	36	637	2456	3.86	68.2	54	651	2308	3.55	42.7
89	Ryan Grant	2007--2011	gnb	RB	45	670	3052	4.56	67.8	22	313	1291	4.12	58.7
90	Willis McGahee	2004--2011	buf-rav-den	RB	66	1042	4415	4.24	66.9	61	859	3359	3.91	55.1
91	Ron A. Johnson	1969--1975	cle-nyg	RB	37	629	2426	3.86	65.6	41	533	1729	3.24	42.2
92	Joe Cribbs	1980--1988	buf-sfo-mia	RB	55	834	3580	4.29	65.1	49	523	1961	3.75	40
93	Marcus Allen	1982--1997	rai-kan	RB	145	2221	9433	4.25	65.1	91	1068	4157	3.89	45.7
94	Antowain Smith	1997--2005	buf-nwe-oti-nor	RB	75	1248	4872	3.9	65	61	674	2559	3.8	42
95	Larry Brown	1969--1976	was	RB	69	1171	4441	3.79	64.4	35	464	1780	3.84	50.9
96	Kevin Jones	2004--2008	det-chi	RB	22	326	1415	4.34	64.3	41	469	1761	3.75	43
97	Floyd Little	1967--1975	den	RB	45	738	2880	3.9	64	67	820	3187	3.89	47.6
98	Wendell Tyler	1977--1986	ram-sfo	RB	71	931	4510	4.84	63.5	46	550	2443	4.44	53.1
99	Ricky Bell	1977--1982	tam-sdg	RB	25	397	1588	4	63.5	38	462	1591	3.44	41.9
100	Abner Haynes	1960--1967	kan-den-mia-nyj	HB	48	601	3046	5.07	63.5	60	439	1592	3.63	26.5
101	Cadillac Williams	2005--2011	tam-ram	RB	33	505	2094	4.15	63.5	50	568	1993	3.51	39.9
102	Clem Daniels	1960--1968	kan-rai-sfo	RB	51	689	3236	4.7	63.5	49	401	1669	4.16	34.1
103	Pete Johnson	1977--1984	cin-sdg-mia	RB	64	1028	3995	3.89	62.4	50	538	1879	3.49	37.6
104	Leonard Russell	1991--1996	nwe-den-ram-sdg	RB	31	549	1934	3.52	62.4	51	615	2039	3.32	40
105	Bam Morris	1994--1999	pit-rav-chi-kan	RB	39	605	2423	4	62.1	37	444	1636	3.68	44.2
106	Rueben Mayes	1986--1993	nor-sea	RB	36	555	2233	4.02	62	40	314	1262	4.02	31.6
107	Errict Rhett	1994--2000	tam-rav-cle	RB	36	635	2213	3.49	61.5	42	539	1930	3.58	46
108	Anthony Thomas	2001--2007	chi-dal-nor-buf	RB	39	628	2395	3.81	61.4	49	431	1532	3.55	31.3
109	James Wilder	1981--1990	tam-det	RB	32	481	1964	4.08	61.4	86	1123	4160	3.7	48.4
110	Joseph Addai	2006--2011	clt	RB	62	943	3804	4.03	61.4	26	310	1270	4.1	48.8
111	Marion Butts	1989--1995	sdg-nwe-oti	RB	50	766	3067	4	61.3	55	601	2262	3.76	41.1
112	Matt Snell	1964--1972	nyj	RB	42	641	2573	4.01	61.3	35	435	1849	4.25	52.8
113	Delvin Williams	1974--1980	sfo-mia	RB	51	745	3115	4.18	61.1	47	588	2525	4.29	53.7
114	James Brooks	1981--1992	sdg-cin-cle-tam	RB	83	976	5060	5.18	61	86	767	3118	4.07	36.3
115	Kevin Mack	1985--1993	cle	RB	51	753	3109	4.13	61	54	645	2438	3.78	45.1
116	Mike Thomas	1975--1980	was-sdg	RB	52	796	3163	3.97	60.8	28	319	1148	3.6	41
117	Neal Anderson	1986--1993	chi	RB	68	992	4130	4.16	60.7	49	604	2315	3.83	47.2
118	Paul Lowe	1960--1969	sdg-kan	HB	66	767	3998	5.21	60.6	28	228	1075	4.71	38.4
119	DeShaun Foster	2003--2008	car-sfo	RB	47	689	2833	4.11	60.3	33	323	1138	3.52	34.5
120	Napoleon Kaufman	1995--2000	rai	RB	46	512	2760	5.39	60	46	467	2036	4.36	44.3
121	Mike Garrett	1966--1973	kan-sdg	RB	62	823	3712	4.51	59.9	41	477	1703	3.57	41.5
122	Dave Hampton	1969--1976	gnb-atl-phi	RB	36	547	2144	3.92	59.6	55	583	2296	3.94	41.7
123	Leroy Kelly	1964--1973	cle	RB	92	1268	5465	4.31	59.4	49	538	2145	3.99	43.8
124	Sam Cunningham	1973--1982	nwe	RB	53	800	3133	3.92	59.1	52	615	2430	3.95	46.7
125	Duce Staley	1997--2006	phi-pit	RB	66	923	3881	4.2	58.8	52	621	2368	3.81	45.5
126	Charlie Garner	1994--2004	phi-sfo-rai-tam	RB	69	830	4035	4.86	58.5	82	784	3503	4.47	42.7
127	Mike Rozier	1985--1991	oti-atl	RB	45	654	2622	4.01	58.3	52	560	2022	3.61	38.9
128	Brian Westbrook	2002--2010	phi-sfo	RB	80	971	4660	4.8	58.3	49	529	2206	4.17	45
129	Mark van Eeghen	1974--1983	rai-nwe	RB	96	1393	5561	3.99	57.9	41	432	1714	3.97	41.8
130	Julius Jones	2004--2010	dal-sea-nor	RB	48	684	2775	4.06	57.8	48	636	2472	3.89	51.5
131	Marion Barber	2005--2011	dal-chi	RB	59	783	3407	4.35	57.7	44	414	1524	3.68	34.6
132	James Stewart	1995--2002	jax-det	RB	54	828	3108	3.75	57.6	53	681	2895	4.25	54.6
133	Eddie Lee Ivery	1979--1986	gnb	RB	35	407	2014	4.95	57.5	34	244	891	3.65	26.2
134	Ken Willard	1965--1974	sfo-crd	RB	69	1003	3955	3.94	57.3	58	579	1963	3.39	33.8
135	Mike Pruitt	1976--1986	cle-buf-kan	RB	67	944	3840	4.07	57.3	76	921	3605	3.91	47.4
136	Marv Hubbard	1969--1977	rai-det	RB	66	767	3773	4.92	57.2	24	225	867	3.85	36.1
137	Gerald Riggs	1982--1991	atl-was	RB	62	894	3544	3.96	57.2	72	1110	4690	4.23	65.1
138	Ronnie Brown	2005--2011	mia-phi	RB	43	596	2448	4.11	56.9	50	586	2522	4.3	50.4
139	Adrian Murrell	1993--2003	nyj-crd-was-dal	RB	44	637	2494	3.92	56.7	72	765	2862	3.74	39.8
140	Don Perkins	1961--1968	dal	FB-HB	55	758	3107	4.1	56.5	51	754	3079	4.08	60.4
141	Lamar Smith	1994--2003	sea-nor-mia-car	RB	54	811	3043	3.75	56.4	58	565	2030	3.59	35
142	Mike Anderson	2000--2007	den-rav	RB	58	716	3254	4.54	56.1	40	250	976	3.9	24.4
143	J.D. Smith	1960--1966	sfo-dal	FB-HB	33	451	1850	4.1	56.1	36	411	1564	3.81	43.4
144	Ted Brown	1979--1986	min	RB	50	660	2799	4.24	56	56	499	1907	3.82	34.1
145	Dick Bass	1960--1969	ram	FB-HB	47	590	2612	4.43	55.6	59	567	2504	4.42	42.4
146	Sammy Winder	1982--1990	den	RB	80	1195	4443	3.72	55.5	52	423	1356	3.21	26.1
147	Emerson Boozer	1966--1975	nyj	RB	54	774	2984	3.86	55.3	58	518	2092	4.04	36.1
148	Ed Podolak	1969--1977	kan	RB	48	655	2630	4.02	54.8	47	423	1482	3.5	31.5
149	Earnest Byner	1984--1997	cle-was-rav	RB	111	1522	6064	3.98	54.6	102	757	3034	4.01	29.7
150	Brandon Jacobs	2005--2011	nyg	RB	71	862	3869	4.49	54.5	39	336	1441	4.29	36.9
151	Roger Craig	1983--1993	sfo-rai-min	RB	127	1658	6873	4.15	54.1	53	529	2106	3.98	39.7
152	Mel Farr	1967--1973	det	RB	31	377	1677	4.45	54.1	27	292	960	3.29	35.6
153	Bobby Humphrey	1989--1992	den-mia	RB	33	422	1781	4.22	54	22	342	1338	3.91	60.8
154	Jim Otis	1970--1978	nor-kan-crd	RB	57	782	3057	3.91	53.6	51	391	1335	3.41	26.2
155	Chris Warren	1990--2000	sea-dal-phi	RB	70	872	3743	4.29	53.5	91	948	4061	4.28	44.6
156	Ahmad Bradshaw	2007--2011	nyg	RB	52	565	2780	4.92	53.5	27	246	917	3.73	34
157	John Stephens	1988--1993	nwe-gnb-kan	RB	28	410	1477	3.6	52.8	59	535	1963	3.67	33.3
158	Gary W. Anderson	1985--1993	sdg-tam-det	RB	36	420	1899	4.52	52.8	73	449	1510	3.36	20.7
159	Otis Armstrong	1973--1980	den	RB	58	721	3055	4.24	52.7	39	321	1408	4.39	36.1
160	Mercury Morris	1969--1976	mia-sdg	RB	74	737	3896	5.29	52.6	33	161	682	4.24	20.7
161	Kevan Barlow	2001--2006	sfo-nyj	RB	37	451	1946	4.31	52.6	50	583	2074	3.56	41.5
162	Tom Sullivan	1972--1978	phi-cle	RB	26	375	1359	3.62	52.3	51	483	1683	3.48	33
163	Reggie Cobb	1990--1996	tam-gnb-jax-nyj	RB	29	407	1514	3.72	52.2	62	670	2255	3.37	36.4
164	Hewritt Dixon	1963--1970	den-rai	RB-TE	55	677	2861	4.23	52	38	161	553	3.43	14.6
165	Altie Taylor	1969--1976	det-oti	RB	54	718	2794	3.89	51.7	45	417	1406	3.37	31.2
166	Tony Collins	1981--1990	nwe-mia	RB	56	682	2885	4.23	51.5	53	556	1962	3.53	37
167	Sherman Smith	1976--1983	sea-sdg	RB	35	403	1792	4.45	51.2	53	431	1728	4.01	32.6
168	Justin Fargas	2003--2009	rai	FB	25	287	1278	4.45	51.1	65	540	2091	3.87	32.2
169	Edgar Bennett	1992--1999	gnb-chi	RB	64	899	3264	3.63	51	47	379	1289	3.4	27.4
170	Terry Metcalf	1973--1981	crd-was	RB-WR	46	499	2341	4.69	50.9	36	282	1216	4.31	33.8
171	Calvin Hill	1969--1981	dal-was-cle	RB	96	1145	4884	4.27	50.9	54	395	1559	3.95	28.9
172	Michael Vick	2001--2011	atl-phi	QB	65	459	3287	7.16	50.6	51	297	2165	7.29	42.5
173	MacArthur Lane	1968--1978	crd-gnb-kan	RB	52	602	2620	4.35	50.4	67	551	1884	3.42	28.1
174	Larry Kinnebrew	1983--1990	cin-buf	RB	37	458	1863	4.07	50.4	40	328	1287	3.92	32.2
175	Gerry Ellis	1980--1986	gnb	RB	46	479	2314	4.83	50.3	54	350	1499	4.28	27.8
176	Barry Word	1987--1993	nor-kan-min	RB	45	541	2235	4.13	49.7	24	223	859	3.85	35.8
177	Johnny Roland	1966--1973	crd-nyg	RB	40	501	1968	3.93	49.2	47	427	1458	3.41	31
178	Herschel Walker	1986--1997	dal-min-phi-nyg	RB	84	962	4122	4.28	49.1	106	1020	4235	4.15	40
179	Curtis Dickey	1980--1986	clt-cle	RB	30	383	1467	3.83	48.9	51	553	2545	4.6	49.9
180	Keith Lincoln	1961--1968	sdg-buf	FB-HB	47	440	2294	5.21	48.8	38	308	1255	4.07	33
181	Boobie Clark	1973--1980	cin-oti	RB	48	601	2311	3.85	48.1	31	225	837	3.72	27
182	Clarence Davis	1971--1978	rai	RB	73	759	3511	4.63	48.1	25	166	625	3.77	25
183	Michael Pittman	1998--2008	crd-tam-den	RB	69	782	3315	4.24	48	81	665	2499	3.76	30.9
184	Tom Woodeshick	1963--1972	phi-crd	RB	31	346	1483	4.29	47.8	50	456	1922	4.21	38.4
185	Tyrone Wheatley	1995--2004	nyg-rai	RB	67	818	3185	3.89	47.5	61	492	1878	3.82	30.8
186	Charley Tolar	1960--1966	oti	FB	46	576	2173	3.77	47.2	42	354	1183	3.34	28.2
187	Frank Pollard	1980--1988	pit	RB	52	551	2448	4.44	47.1	50	447	1772	3.96	35.4
188	Lorenzo White	1988--1995	oti-cle	RB	54	612	2538	4.15	47	59	526	1968	3.74	33.4
189	Ron Dayne	2000--2007	nyg-den-htx	RB	54	693	2537	3.66	47	42	320	1271	3.97	30.3
190	Walter Abercrombie	1982--1988	pit-phi	RB	45	516	2113	4.09	47	42	369	1423	3.86	33.9
191	Harvey Williams	1991--1998	kan-rai	RB	53	632	2487	3.94	46.9	55	411	1528	3.72	27.8
192	Don Calhoun	1974--1981	buf-nwe	RB	55	577	2532	4.39	46	39	288	1044	3.63	26.8
193	Greg Hill	1994--1999	kan-ram-det	RB	53	579	2439	4.21	46	28	196	795	4.06	28.4
194	Roland Harper	1975--1982	chi	RB	34	398	1554	3.9	45.7	40	364	1501	4.12	37.5
195	Rob Carpenter	1977--1986	oti-nyg-ram	RB	76	904	3449	3.82	45.4	48	354	1246	3.52	26
196	Dexter Bussey	1974--1984	det	RB	57	578	2571	4.45	45.1	76	628	2551	4.06	33.6
197	Wray Carlton	1960--1967	buf	HB-FB	43	472	1935	4.1	45	38	338	1402	4.15	36.9
198	John David Crow	1960--1968	crd-sfo	HB-TE	52	539	2324	4.31	44.7	45	355	1425	4.01	31.7
199	Mike Alstott	1996--2006	tam	RB	89	1002	3948	3.94	44.4	79	469	1481	3.16	18.7
200	Dalton Hilliard	1986--1993	nor	RB	65	762	2864	3.76	44.1	44	383	1364	3.56	31
201	Joe Washington	1977--1985	sdg-clt-was-atl	RB	64	672	2819	4.19	44	62	542	2076	3.83	33.5
202	Wilbur Jackson	1974--1982	sfo-was	RB	36	371	1574	4.24	43.7	60	608	2305	3.79	38.4
203	Nick Pietrosante	1960--1967	det-cle	FB	50	520	2185	4.2	43.7	36	306	1241	4.06	34.5
204	Mario Bates	1994--2000	nor-crd-det	RB	38	440	1644	3.74	43.3	53	416	1439	3.46	27.2
205	Les Josephson	1964--1974	ram	RB	58	552	2501	4.53	43.1	35	200	628	3.14	17.9
206	Reggie Bush	2006--2011	nor-mia	RB	45	429	1938	4.52	43.1	36	349	1438	4.12	39.9
207	Rocky Bleier	1968--1980	pit	RB	85	861	3602	4.18	42.4	36	207	740	3.57	20.6
208	Chris Brown	2003--2009	oti-htx	RB	32	302	1352	4.48	42.3	38	442	1781	4.03	46.9
209	James R. Jones	1983--1992	det-sea	FB-TE	37	429	1555	3.62	42	75	575	2024	3.52	27
210	Charlie H. Smith	1968--1975	rai-sdg	RB	66	721	2751	3.82	41.7	22	173	715	4.13	32.5
211	Don Woods	1974--1980	sdg-sfo	RB	29	338	1205	3.57	41.6	40	425	1882	4.43	47.1
212	Wayne Morris	1976--1984	crd-sdg	RB	47	496	1951	3.93	41.5	64	399	1432	3.59	22.4
213	LaMont Jordan	2001--2009	nyj-rai-nwe-den	RB	53	467	2180	4.67	41.1	60	469	1770	3.77	29.5
214	Ernie Green	1962--1968	cle	HB-FB	64	556	2621	4.71	41	27	134	654	4.88	24.2
215	Doug Kotar	1974--1981	nyg	RB	31	324	1253	3.87	40.4	58	576	2127	3.69	36.7
216	Dorsey Levens	1994--2004	gnb-phi-nyg	RB	104	1028	4182	4.07	40.2	48	380	1475	3.88	30.7
217	Charles White	1980--1988	cle-ram	RB	51	487	2039	4.19	40	51	303	1068	3.52	20.9
218	Craig Heyward	1988--1998	nor-chi-atl-ram-clt	RB	71	647	2837	4.38	40	72	407	1518	3.73	21.1
219	Reuben Droughns	2001--2008	det-den-cle-nyg	RB	50	478	1993	4.17	39.9	47	459	1638	3.57	34.9
220	Johnny Hector	1983--1992	nyj	RB	58	569	2306	4.05	39.8	63	489	2007	4.1	31.9
221	Harold Green	1990--1998	cin-ram-atl	RB	47	442	1866	4.22	39.7	78	720	2554	3.55	32.7
222	Amos Marsh	1961--1967	dal-det	HB-FB	31	264	1222	4.63	39.4	52	412	1655	4.02	31.8
223	Dave Osborn	1965--1976	min-gnb	RB	82	886	3232	3.65	39.4	47	352	1312	3.73	27.9
224	Cid Edwards	1968--1975	crd-sdg-chi	RB	29	235	1143	4.86	39.4	49	418	1670	4	34.1
225	Tom Matte	1961--1972	clt	RB	94	942	3700	3.93	39.4	43	298	1147	3.85	26.7
226	John L. Williams	1986--1995	sea-pit	FB	81	739	3172	4.29	39.2	75	531	1939	3.65	25.9
227	Ladell Betts	2002--2010	was-nor	RB	52	481	2016	4.19	38.8	60	356	1355	3.81	22.6
228	Walt Garrison	1966--1974	dal	RB	87	777	3319	4.27	38.1	37	236	975	4.13	26.4
229	Michael Bennett	2001--2010	min-kan-tam-sdg-rai	RB	47	424	1788	4.22	38	60	440	2008	4.56	33.5
230	Wendell Hayes	1963--1974	dal-den-kan	RB	62	587	2349	4	37.9	58	401	1445	3.6	24.9
231	Willie Ellison	1967--1974	ram-kan	RB	55	490	2062	4.21	37.5	26	248	1016	4.1	39.1
232	Essex Johnson	1968--1976	cin-tam	RB	48	399	1789	4.48	37.3	65	329	1461	4.44	22.5
233	Jim Kiick	1968--1977	mia-den	RB	80	791	2972	3.76	37.2	34	313	1056	3.37	31.1
234	Stump Mitchell	1981--1989	crd	RB	51	439	1890	4.31	37.1	64	514	2573	5.01	40.2
235	John Fuqua	1969--1976	nyg-pit	RB	57	524	2101	4.01	36.9	37	239	1087	4.55	29.4
236	Robert Newhouse	1972--1983	dal	RB	115	1030	4237	4.11	36.8	42	304	1198	3.94	28.5
237	Curtis McClinton	1962--1968	kan	FB-TE	58	517	2134	4.13	36.8	32	242	978	4.04	30.6
238	Leroy Hoard	1990--1999	cle-rav-car-min	RB	76	677	2796	4.13	36.8	70	392	1397	3.56	20
239	Merril Hoge	1987--1994	pit-chi	RB	56	505	2027	4.01	36.2	54	359	1359	3.79	25.2
240	Charlie Harraway	1966--1973	cle-was	RB	62	588	2240	3.81	36.1	34	275	921	3.35	27.1
241	Larry Garron	1960--1968	nwe	HB-FB	52	457	1877	4.11	36.1	37	260	919	3.53	24.8
242	Correll Buckhalter	2001--2010	phi-den	RB	62	490	2222	4.53	35.8	48	222	959	4.32	20
243	Erric Pegram	1991--1997	atl-pit-sdg-nyg	RB	58	564	2067	3.66	35.6	41	327	1450	4.43	35.4
244	Carl Garrett	1969--1977	nwe-chi-nyj-rai	RB	50	435	1752	4.03	35	64	604	2478	4.1	38.7
245	Rickey Young	1975--1983	sdg-min	RB	58	528	2032	3.85	35	73	472	1605	3.4	22
246	Greg Pruitt	1973--1984	cle-rai	RB	88	614	3078	5.01	35	71	577	2517	4.36	35.5
247	Darrin Nelson	1982--1992	min-sdg	RB	73	583	2545	4.37	34.9	76	483	2067	4.28	27.2
248	Lenny Moore	1960--1967	clt	RB-WR	58	467	2011	4.31	34.7	33	247	986	3.99	29.9
249	Donny Anderson	1966--1974	gnb-crd	RB	68	594	2349	3.95	34.5	57	589	2256	3.83	39.6
250	Kenneth Davis	1986--1994	gnb-buf	RB	77	603	2656	4.4	34.5	54	333	1371	4.12	25.4
251	Tommy Mason	1961--1971	min-ram-was	RB	61	544	2102	3.86	34.5	55	424	1855	4.38	33.7
252	Chester Taylor	2002--2011	rav-min-chi-crd	RB	86	726	2953	4.07	34.3	70	470	1932	4.11	27.6
253	Tony Nathan	1979--1987	mia	RB	89	636	3047	4.79	34.2	45	214	950	4.44	21.1
254	Dominic Rhodes	2001--2010	clt-rai	RB	70	578	2387	4.13	34.1	40	334	1306	3.91	32.7
255	Timmy Brown	1960--1968	phi-clt	RB	51	390	1724	4.42	33.8	53	463	2005	4.33	37.8
256	Dick Hoak	1961--1970	pit	RB-WR	43	413	1420	3.44	33	79	638	2307	3.62	29.2
257	Bill Mathis	1960--1969	nyj	FB-HB	66	615	2164	3.52	32.8	60	417	1380	3.31	23
258	Earl Gros	1962--1970	gnb-phi-pit-nor	FB	44	348	1441	4.14	32.8	52	455	1673	3.68	32.2
259	Bill Brown	1961--1974	chi-min	RB	96	893	3138	3.51	32.7	77	709	2461	3.47	32
260	Anthony Johnson	1990--2000	clt-nyj-chi-car-jax	RB	53	482	1712	3.55	32.3	74	371	1389	3.74	18.8
261	Jess Phillips	1968--1977	cin-nor-rai-nwe	RB	62	444	1980	4.46	31.9	61	451	1601	3.55	26.2
262	Terry Kirby	1993--2002	mia-sfo-cle-rai	RB	68	538	2156	4.01	31.7	51	305	1019	3.34	20
263	Ronnie Bull	1962--1971	chi-phi	RB	60	520	1896	3.65	31.6	49	327	1248	3.82	25.5
264	Norm Bulaich	1970--1979	clt-phi-mia	RB	72	552	2275	4.12	31.6	46	300	1195	3.98	26
265	John Cappelletti	1974--1983	ram-sdg	RB	77	676	2410	3.57	31.3	34	183	624	3.41	18.4
266	Sammy Morris	2000--2011	buf-mia-nwe-dal	RB	65	443	1989	4.49	30.6	65	294	1073	3.65	16.5
267	Pete Banaszak	1966--1978	rai	RB	113	867	3453	3.98	30.6	40	185	637	3.44	15.9
268	Cullen Bryant	1973--1987	ram-sea	RB	95	718	2746	3.82	28.9	52	244	965	3.95	18.6
269	Maurice Morris	2002--2011	sea-det	RB	76	535	2169	4.05	28.5	76	374	1600	4.28	21.1
270	Randall Cunningham	1985--2001	phi-min-dal-rav	QB	98	486	2701	5.56	27.6	73	334	2475	7.41	33.9
271	Tony Galbreath	1976--1987	nor-min-nyg	RB	79	504	2124	4.21	26.9	90	544	2021	3.72	22.5
272	Matt Suhey	1980--1989	chi	RB	84	602	2257	3.75	26.9	59	269	845	3.14	14.3
273	Kordell Stewart	1995--2005	pit-chi-rav	QB	76	410	1992	4.86	26.2	54	204	1164	5.71	21.6
274	Steve Young	1985--1999	tam-sfo	QB	125	550	3236	5.88	25.9	60	268	1597	5.96	26.6
275	Steve McNair	1995--2007	oti-rav	QB	100	479	2488	5.19	24.9	72	245	1457	5.95	20.2
276	Donovan McNabb	1999--2011	phi-was-min	QB	106	458	2391	5.22	22.6	74	229	1488	6.5	20.1
277	Kevin Faulk	1999--2011	nwe	RB	125	653	2743	4.2	21.9	54	299	1289	4.31	23.9
278	Preston Pearson	1968--1980	clt-pit-dal	RB	118	607	2380	3.92	20.2	58	377	1331	3.53	22.9
279	Keith Byars	1986--1998	phi-mia-nwe-nyj	FB-TE	119	537	1893	3.53	15.9	79	318	1154	3.63	14.6
280	John Elway	1983--1998	den	QB	163	598	2279	3.81	14	92	266	1553	5.84	16.9
281	Fran Tarkenton	1961--1978	min-nyg	QB	131	390	1710	4.38	13.1	117	292	1934	6.62	16.5

[continue reading…]

Adrian Peterson is having an incredible season. He’s likely to hit the 2,000-yard mark on Sunday, and he’s also chasing Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. But his splits this year are…interesting.

The table below shows Adrian Peterson’s game logs. These display his traditional statistics, along with his Win Probability added, Expected Points Added, and Success Rate, all courtesy of Advanced NFL Stats; finally I have added the Vikings SRS score for that particularly game (on the season, Minnesota has an SRS of +3.0).

G#	Opp	W/L	Score	Rsh	Yds	YPC	TD	RecYds	WPA	EPA	SR(%)	SRS
1	JAX	W	26-23	17	84	4.9	2	3	0.17	2.5	50	-12.2
2	IND	L	20-23	16	60	3.8	0	20	-0.02	-2.2	40	-5.7
3	SFO	W	24-13	25	86	3.4	0	21	-0.1	-2.4	33.3	18.3
4	DET	W	20-13	21	102	4.9	0	20	0.05	1.8	40	7.5
5	TEN	W	30-7	17	88	5.2	0	15	-0.12	-1.5	33.3	9.3
6	WAS	L	26-38	17	79	4.6	0	50	-0.06	1.6	42.3	-5.9
7	ARI	W	21-14	23	153	6.7	1	6	0.12	0.4	33.3	0.8
8	TAM	L	17-36	15	123	8.2	1	4	-0.07	0.7	43.8	-22.9
9	SEA	L	20-30	17	182	10.7	2	11	0.37	9.5	52.4	5.7
10	DET	W	34-24	27	171	6.3	1	5	0.04	-0.7	25	4.5
11	CHI	L	10-28	18	108	6	0	30	-0.03	0.8	60	-7.8
12	GNB	L	14-23	21	210	10	1	10	0.42	10.4	43.5	1.5
13	CHI	W	21-14	31	154	5	2	16	0.24	2.3	45.5	11.2
14	STL	W	36-22	24	212	8.8	1	0	0.21	6.9	45.8	16.8
15	HOU	W	23-6	25	86	3.4	0	4	-0.1	-5	25.9	24.5
Total				314	1898	6	11	215	1.12	25.1	40.2	3

Peterson has only had two games this season where he averaged fewer than 3.5 yards per carry. Those two games were, without question, the two most impressive wins of the year for the Vikings. Peterson had identical stat lines of 25 carries/86 yards/0 touchdowns in shocking upsets over the 49ers and Texans.
[continue reading…]

Tonight ESPN aired You Don’t Know Bo, another excellent documentary in its 30 for 30 series. It’s often said that Bo Jackson’s greatness can’t be captured by statistics. While that’s undoubtedly true, there are still some ways to use Jackson’s numbers to give a glimpse into the type of player he was. A few years ago, Jason Lisk talked about Bo in this podcast and noted that Bo had the longest rush in the NFL in three of the four seasons he played. Jackson and O.J. Simpson remain the only two players to record the league’s longest rush in three different NFL seasons.

There are other ways to capture what Bo did in his brief career. Because he was busy being a baseball player, Bo missed the first third of the season each year. If we look at the data starting in week 7, from 1988 to 1990, Bo compares pretty favorably to the elite running backs of his day. Over that span he ranked third in rushing yards while averaging over five yards per carry:

[continue reading…]

Grading running backs can be tricky; rushing yards tell much of the story but remain a function of opportunity (itself an indicator of talent). Yards per carry sounds nice but often is more misleading than revealing. Last year at Smartfootball.com I analyzed team rushing games using rush success rate, and I will do the same today. Success rate has been around for awhile – The Hidden Game of Football wrote about it in the late ’80s and Football Outsiders has been tracking it for close to a decade. Everyone has their own unique definition, it seems; here is mine.

• I started with every play from scrimmage where a running back was credited with a carry. I then removed all instances of 3rd or 4th down carries where the back needed to gain more than 5 yards for a first down, since the primary goal in these situations usually isn’t to get the first down. However, on the rare occasions where a running back did convert for the first down, those plays were kept in the data set. This has only happened 20 times this season.
• On 3rd and 4th down, a success is a rush that gains a first down (or touchdown). A failure is every carry that does not result in a first down.
• On 2nd down, a success is achieved when the player gains at least 50% of the yards needed for the first down. This means that 2nd-and-8 runs are failures unless they pick up 4 yards; on 2nd-and-7, the running back must also gain at least 4 yards. A rush for one yard on 2nd-and-3 is a failure, and so on.
• On 1st down, a running back is credited with a successful carry if he gains at least 40% of the yards needed; therefore, four yards are required on 1st-and-10 before the running back is given credit. On 1st and goal from the 5, a two-yard gain would be considered a success.

The league average success rate by these rules is 49.8%. The table below lists all running backs with at least 50 carries, along with their number of rushes (which excludes the excluded carries), number of successful runs, and their success rate. The table is sorted by the far right column, which shows how many successes over 50% of their runs the player had. In the event of a tie, the player with more carries was ranked higher.
[continue reading…]

Last week, I noted that Calvin Johnson was trying to become just the third player since 1970 to lead the NFL in receiving yards in consecutive seasons. The rushing crown is much more likely to go to the same player; in fact, ten rushing champions since 1973 also led the league in rushing yards in the prior season.

Maurice Jones-Drew led the league in rushing in 2011, but isn’t going to repeat in 2012. Who was the last player to win the rushing crown in consecutive years?

Career statistics can be very misleading, since a player can hang around for a bunch of meaningless years but really pad his totals. Six years ago, Doug came up with a system that only counted the receiving yards a player recorded after his first 1,000 receiving yards each season.

I’m going to do something similar for running backs, but instead will focus on individual game performances. I have game logs for every running back (post-season included) for every game since 1960. What I did was zero out all rushing yards in games where a player had 50 or fewer rushing yards; in the remaining games, I only gave those runners credit for the rushing yards they gained after their first 50 rushing yards. The “RYov50” column shows the running back’s career rushing yards after removing the first 50 rushing yards he had in every game; the next column shows each player’s career rushing yards (since 1960, including post-season), and the first “Perc%” column shows the ratio of the “RYov50” column to the career rushing yards. A higher percentage means the player spent most of his time as the lead back for his team, while a lower percentage indicates that the player spent significant time in a committee and/or stuck around for several years past his prime. Obviously for still active players, the percentage column could be misleading as they may not have entered the decline portion of their careers just yet.

The #50YG column shows how many games the player had over 50 rushing yards, and the next column shows what percentage of games the running back gained over 50 yards. For players like Jim Brown, this study only includes his seasons starting in 1960, and for active players, 2012 data is *not* included:
[continue reading…]

Welcome back, NFL. The first of 17 great Sundays is upon us, and this is always one of my favorite days of the year. I’ll even put up with the garbage that is pre-game and post-game shows to watch football from 9 in the morning until after midnight. I’m sure many of you will do the same, so good luck to whomever you’re rooting for today.

In Friday’s post, I noted that Anquan Boldin gained 217 receiving yards in week 1 of the 2003 season, trailing only Frank Clarke (1962) for most receiving yards on opening weekend.

But as you get ready for today’s actions, chew on this trivia question. Which player gained the most rushing yards in week 1 of an NFL season? Like yesterday, I’ve given you a special hint with this mystery photo.

I broke down each of the NFL and AFL champions since 1950 into three categories:

• Pass Efficiency, measured by a modified version of ANY/A. The formula was (Passing Yards + 10*TD – 22.5*INT – Sack Yards)/(Pass Attempts + Sacks). This strikes a middle ground between traditional ANY/A and NY/A.
• Rushing Success, according to the following formula: (Rushing Yards + 10*RTD + 5*Rushing1stDowns)/(Carries).
• Defensive Rating, based on the number of offensive touchdowns scored by their opponents.

There are ways to quibble with those categories, and I won’t begrudge anyone who does. After giving each team a rating in each category, I calculated how they compared to the league average in each season. In all cases, the average is 100%, and a number higher than 100% means better.

Here’s what each of the columns mean, from left to right. In 2011, the New York Giants won the Super Bowl; they allowed 43 touchdowns to opposing offenses, averaged 7.6 in my modified version of ANY/A, and averaged 4.9 adjusted yards per carry. The next three columns show how New York ranked relative to league average. By allowing 43 scores, the Giants D was well below average, putting them at 83% of the average mark; they were 25% better than average at passing, but only 86% of league average efficiency in the running game. Since the Giants highest rating came in the passing category, they are listed in the Identity column as a Passing team.
[continue reading…]

Darren McFadden has missed games due to injury in each of his four seasons in the NFL. But he earns the label “injury prone” instead of “bust” thanks to his incredible production the past two years. In 2010 and 2011, McFadden totaled 2,432 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns in 20 games while averaging 5.3 yards per carry and 10.0 yards per reception.

But is the injury prone label fair? From a rearview standpoint, it certainly is. But the label carries with it the perception that he will continue to be injury prone. Is that fair?

From a statistical standpoint, we’re really limited by sample size. In the past two decades, only a handful of young running backs have been as productive as McFadden despite dealing with significant injury issues. Ricky Williams played in 12 and 10 games his first two seasons, and earned the injury prone label before three straight 16-game seasons. Steven Jackson missed games here and there early in his career, and in fact still has just two 16-game seasons in his career. But Jackson is no longer considered injury prone and has also registered three 15-game seasons.

Fred Taylor resided for years at the intersection of talented and injury prone, earning colorful nicknames like ‘Fragile Fred’ and ‘Fraud Taylor.” He played in only 40 games in his first four seasons, but still scored 37 touchdowns, averaged 4.7 yards per carry, and averaged 106 yards from scrimmage per game. He would play in 16 games each of the next two seasons, before missing games due to injury every other season for the rest of his career.

Cadillac Williams played in 14 games in each of his first two seasons, and things only got worse from there. He played in just 10 games the next two seasons, before playing in 16 games in both 2009 and 2010. Julius Jones missed significant time in each of his first two seasons, but then played in 16 games in each of his next two years. On the other hand, Kevin Jones’s career went 15-13-12-13-11 in terms of games played. Robert Smith was a track star on the gridiron and often seemed as tough as one. In his first two seasons as the starter with the Vikings, he wound up being inactive half of the time each year. In 1997 and 1998, he played in 14 games, but Smith would only play one 16-game season in the NFL: his last one.

But back to McFadden. Let’s start with some baseline about what the anti-McFadden would look like. From 1990 to 2010, there were 91 ^[1]This excludes Robert Edwards, Jamal Lewis and Terry Allen, each of whom would suffered a season-ending injury prior to the start of the following season. running backs, age 25 or younger, who rushed for at least 1,000 yards and played in 16 games. Only 38 of those 91 running backs (42%) played in 16 games the next season, while the group averaged 13.9 games played in the following year. The median was 15 games played, with 58% of running backs playing in 15 or 16 games.
[continue reading…]

The Maurice Jones-Drew holdout is slightly different than the typical holdouts we see every summer. As a 27-year-old running back, Jones-Drew is seeking his last big contract. But with a new owner and regime in Jacksonville, management is understandably hesitant to give a large contract to a player who already has two years remaining on his deal. The difference between Jones-Drew and most players is that this is his last chance to cash in. If he plays out his contract, even if he plays well the next two seasons, he’s unlikely to get a huge deal in 2014.

Would that be fair? I would hope that some of those writers who argued in favor of reducing rookie contracts would find such a result unjust, as a talented, star player should be rewarded with a big contract. ^[1]This is obviously shtick, but I do find it hypocritical for owners to argue against paying “unproven” players and then to argue against paying aging players who “have little … Continue reading But even if he performs well in 2012 and 2013, by 2014, Jones-Drew would be a 29-year-old runner who had just endured five years of punishment as a workhorse running back. No team would sign him to a large contract at that point, as he could not be expected to continue to produce at such a high level.

When it comes to running backs, it is understood that they must try to maximize their salaries when they are young, as big paydays for older runners are few and far between. But in this situation, some have argued that since this is Jones-Drew’s second contract, he should honor his deal (or, alternatively, that we should be less sympathetic to his cause). In 2009, Jones-Drew signed his second contract, and the argument goes that unlike a rookie contract — where players have almost no leverage — Jones-Drew already had his bite at the apple. But that argument ignores the fact that Jones-Drew’s rookie contract remains part of his current predicament.
[continue reading…]

Yesterday, I looked at how frequently the highest drafted rookie running back ended leading his draft class in rushing yards. Today, we’ll examine how often the best rookie running back ends up being having the most career rushing yards among the members from his class.

I performed this same exercise at wide receiver, and concluded that as great as A.J. Green was last season, the odds were stacked against him leading the 2011 rookie receiver class in career receiving yards. ^[1]From 1978 to 2008, only three of the 31 wide receivers with the best rookie seasons ended up with the most receiving yards from their class. For whatever reason, there simply is not a strong correlation between rookie performance and career performance for wide receivers. Is the same true at the running back position?

There was an eleven-year stretch from ’92 to ’02, when Ricky Watters, Jerome Bettis, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, Eddie George, Corey Dillon, Fred Taylor, Edgerrin James, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Clinton Portis each led their class in rushing yards both as rookies and over the course of their careers. The lone exception came in 2000, when Mike Anderson nudged by Jamal Lewis to lead the ’00 class in rookie rushing yards, while Lewis ended with the most career rushing yards. If I had written this article a decade ago, I would have thought that unlike at the receiver position, there was an extremely strong correlation between rookie and career performance for the top running backs.

But since then, things have changed. Domanick Williams (Larry Johnson), Kevin Jones (Steven Jackson), Cadillac Williams (Frank Gore), Joseph Addai (Maurice Jones-Drew), Steve Slaton (Chris Johnson), and Knowshon Moreno (Arian Foster) led all rookies in rushing yards but have been passed in the career category by another back from the same rookie class. It’s too early to get a handle on the last two draft classes, although I certainly wouldn’t take even odds on either Ben Tate or LeGarrette Blount finishing with the most career rushing yards of any running back who entered the league in either 2010 or 2011.

The table below shows the top rookie running backs and the top career running backs from each class since 1978.
[continue reading…]

Last month, I wondered whether previous Justin Blackmons — i.e., the first receiver selected in the draft — lived up to their lofty draft status. There have been 42 drafts since 1970, but only five times has the highest selected wideout gained the most receiving yards among all rookie receivers. The long-term odds were slightly better, though, as nearly a quarter of those highest selected receivers ended up with the most receiving yards in his draft class.

So how do things look at the running back position? The Bills drafted Willis McGahee knowing he would miss his entire rookie season, while Bo Jackson chose to play baseball instead of playing with the Buccaneers. Ki-Jana Carter and Larry Stegent suffered season-ending injuries in the pre-season of their rookie years, making them inapplicable for our purposes, assuming Richardson stays healthy. What about the other 38 running backs who were the first at their position selected in the draft since the merger?

Over 40% of those highest drafted running backs led their class ^[1]Note that this only includes drafted running backs. in rushing yards as a rookie, while exactly half gained at least 75% as many rushing yards as the the most productive rookie running back. That may not be particularly impressive in the abstract, but represents a much better track record than we saw at the wide receiver position. On the other hand, recent history has not been particularly great: in the past 10 years, arguably every top rookie running back outside of Adrian Peterson disappointed, as even Moreno failed to meet the expectations of many.

Year	Running Back	Team	Pick	College	Rush Yds	% of Leader	Top Rookie
2011	Mark Ingram	NOR	28	Alabama	474	0.53	DeMarco Murray
2010	C.J. Spiller	BUF	9	Clemson	283	0.42	Ryan Mathews
2009	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	12	Georgia	947	1.00	Knowshon Moreno
2008	Darren McFadden	OAK	4	Arkansas	499	0.39	Steve Slaton
2007	Adrian Peterson	MIN	7	Oklahoma	1341	1.00	Adrian Peterson
2006	Reggie Bush	NOR	2	USC	565	0.52	Joseph Addai
2005	Ronnie Brown	MIA	2	Auburn	907	0.77	Cadillac Williams
2004	Steven Jackson	STL	24	Oregon St.	673	0.59	Kevin Jones
2003	Willis McGahee	BUF	23	Miami (FL)	--	--	Domanick Williams
2002	William Green	CLE	16	Boston Col.	887	0.59	Clinton Portis
2001	LaDainian Tomlinson	SDG	5	TCU	1236	1.00	LaDainian Tomlinson
2000	Jamal Lewis	BAL	5	Tennessee	1364	0.92	Mike Anderson
1999	Edgerrin James	IND	4	Miami (FL)	1553	1.00	Edgerrin James
1998	Curtis Enis	CHI	5	Penn St.	497	0.41	Fred Taylor
1997	Warrick Dunn	TAM	12	Florida St.	978	0.87	Corey Dillon
1996	Lawrence Phillips	STL	6	Nebraska	632	0.46	Eddie George
1995	Ki-Jana Carter	CIN	1	Penn St.	--	--	Curtis Martin
1994	Marshall Faulk	IND	2	San Diego St.	1282	1.00	Marshall Faulk
1993	Garrison Hearst	PHO	3	Georgia	264	0.18	Jerome Bettis
1992	Tommy Vardell	CLE	9	Stanford	369	0.65	Vaughn Dunbar
1991	Leonard Russell	NWE	14	Arizona St.	959	1.00	Leonard Russell
1990	Blair Thomas	NYJ	2	Penn St.	620	0.66	Emmitt Smith
1989	Barry Sanders	DET	3	Oklahoma St.	1470	1.00	Barry Sanders
1988	Gaston Green	RAM	14	UCLA	117	0.10	John Stephens
1987	Alonzo Highsmith	HOU	3	Miami (FL)	106	0.16	Christian Okoye
1986	Bo Jackson	TAM	1	Auburn	--	--	Rueben Mayes
1985	George Adams	NYG	19	Kentucky	498	1.00	George Adams
1984	Greg Bell	BUF	26	Notre Dame	1100	1.00	Greg Bell
1983	Eric Dickerson	RAM	2	SMU	1808	1.00	Eric Dickerson
1982	Darrin Nelson	MIN	7	Stanford	136	0.20	Marcus Allen
1981	George Rogers	NOR	1	South Carolina	1674	1.00	George Rogers
1980	Billy Sims	DET	1	Oklahoma	1303	1.00	Billy Sims
1979	Ottis Anderson	STL	8	Miami (FL)	1605	1.00	Ottis Anderson
1978	Earl Campbell	HOU	1	Texas	1450	1.00	Earl Campbell
1977	Ricky Bell	TAM	1	USC	436	0.43	Tony Dorsett
1976	Chuck Muncie	NOR	3	California	659	1.00	Chuck Muncie
1975	Walter Payton	CHI	4	Jackson St.	679	0.74	Mike Thomas
1974	Bo Matthews	SDG	2	Colorado	328	0.28	Don Woods
1973	Otis Armstrong	DEN	9	Purdue	90	0.09	Boobie Clark
1972	Franco Harris	PIT	13	Penn St.	1055	1.00	Franco Harris
1971	John Riggins	NYJ	6	Kansas	769	0.70	John Brockington
1970	Larry Stegent	STL	8	Texas A&M	--	--	Duane Thomas

Richardson is the favorite to be the most productive rookie running back, although “the field” appears to be a more enticing proposition. But Cleveland drafted Richardson for what he can do for the next five or ten years, which will ultimately be much more significant than how he performs in 2012. Even if the highest drafted running back is unlikely to lead his draft class in rushing yards as a rookie, is he more likely (than the field) to lead his draft class in career rushing yards?
[continue reading…]

Congratulations to the six members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2012: Curtis Martin, Dermontti Dawson, Chris Doleman, Cortez Kennedy, Willie Roaf, Jack Butler

Tonight, those six men will be inducted into the Hall of Fame, a must-see event for any football fan. You can also read the Hall of Fame Candidate Profiles that Jason Lisk and I wrote for the PFR Blog a couple of years ago, including profiles on Martin, Dawson, Doleman, and Kennedy.

On to Saturday’s trivia…

Jim Brown had a magnificent career, averaging 104.3 yards per game during his 118-game career. Brown retired as the all-time leading rusher in both yards and yards per game. While he’s since been passed in the rushing yards category, Brown remains the only player (minimum 20 games) to average over 100 rushing yards per game for his career. Barry Sanders rushed for 15,228 yards in the first 152 games of his career, putting him just north of the century average. But in his 153rd and final game he gained only 41 yards, ending his career with a 99.8 rushing yards per game average.

Adrian Peterson has rushed for 92.5 yards per game so far in his career, although that number is likely to go down by the time he retires. The Vikings star is currently fourth on the career rushing yards per game list, which leads us into today’s trivia question:

After Jim Brown and Barry Sanders, which player has averaged the most career rushing yards per game?

Yesterday’s question focused on which leading wide receiver led the NFL in yards per reception. Today, we’ll look at running backs in a similar light.

Carolina’s Cam Newton led the league in yards per carry in 2011, which isn’t that unusual. Michael Vick led the league in that category in five of the last ten seasons, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Robert Griffin III, Newton, or Vick lead the NFL in yards per carry in 2012. But today’s trivia is focused on running backs.

Darren Sproles not only led the Saints in rushing yards, but he averaged an incredible 6.9 yards per carry last season. Sproles may be the game’s most dominant space player, but he fell 13 carries shy of the 100 carries necessary to qualify for the yards-per-carry crown. So which qualifying running back led the league in yards per carry in 2011?

Bill Barnwell wrote an interesting article where he tried to identify the best running back in football. His article made me wonder: which player will gain the most rushing yards over the next decade?

It probably makes sense to start with a look at history. I suspect you would have been able to guess that LaDainian Tomlinson had the most rushing yards from 2002 to 2011, but what about from 1982 to 1991? Or from 1960 to 1969? The table below shows each leader in rushing yards for every ten year period, along with their age and NFL experience during their first season during the relevant period.

Tomlinson entered the league in 2001, but he was so productive in his first nine years that he also led the league in rushing yards gained from 2000 to 2009. O.J. Simpson, Eric Dickerson and Barry Sanders each led the league in rushing yards for ten year periods … when they spent the first three seasons of those decades playing college ball. Jim Brown was even more impressive, as he led the NFL in rushing yards from 1953 to 1962, even though he was just 17 years old in 1953 and did not enter the league until 1957.

But Steve Van Buren has them all beat: he entered the league in 1944, but led all players in rushing from 1938 to 1947. As you may recall, he’s still the Eagles franchise leader in rushing touchdowns. We can also look at the leaders over the last nine seasons, although obviously the ten-year windows are not closed in these cases:

So what can we make of the results? The average running back was just a hair under 22 at the start of his ten year period. Nearly half of all running backs were not yet in the NFL at the start of their ten year run, although that is likely to change now. Those players were in other football leagues, serving their country, or in college, but all three of those factors are less prevalent now. Star running backs leave college a year or two earlier than they did a generation ago, which will make it slightly less likely that a player will not be in the NFL at the start of the next ten-year run.

Fourteen players were rookies at the start of their great stretch, and another 10 were second year players, making nearly 80% of the players having just one year or less of experience in the summer before the start of their streak. What does that mean for the stretch from 2012 to 2021? Trent Richardson is the ideal candidate, as the new Browns running back just turned 21. Last year’s Alabama running sensation, Mark Ingram, was 22 in 2011, while Dion Lewis and Jacquizz Rodgers were the top 21-year-old running backs last season.

No running back started his 10-year stretch atop the leaderboard at the age of 26, and only Hall of Famers Steve Van Buren, Joe Perry, Jim Brown, Walter Payton, Eric Dickerson and Emmitt Smith were 25 at the start of a streak. That makes it pretty easy to rule out Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson, all of whom will be 27 in 2012. Ray Rice (25 in 2012), Arian Foster (26), Marshawn Lynch (26) and Ryan Mathews (25) are probably suckers’ bets, too.

LeSean McCoy, Beanie Wells and DeMarco Murray all are entering their age 24 season, making them perhaps the best hope among the young runners with NFL experience. On the other hand, along with Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Ronnie Hillman and Lamar Miller made the 2012 draft strong at the position. In the NFC West, Isaiah Pead and Kendall Hunter (or LaMichael James) could be the future for their teams for the next decade. As always, it’s too early to say.

In the collegiate ranks, South Carolina’s Marcus Lattimore is expected to be the cream of the 2013 class, with Auburn transfer Michael Dyer and Wisconsin’s Montee Ball also in the mix. And based on past history, we can’t count out sophomores Malcolm Brown or De’Anthony Thomas. If you had to pick which player will lead the league in rushing yards from 2012 to 2021, Trent Richardson is the obvious choice. After him, I’d probably be pretty evenly split among McCoy, Martin and Lattimore.