Last year, Stanford’s David DeCastro was considered one of the safest picks in the draft. But despite being a dominant player that nearly every scout loved, because he was a guard, DeCastro fell to the Steelers with the 24th pick. This year, Alabama guard Chance Warmack projects to be an even better player, and some think he’ll crack the top ten.

Guards generally don’t get drafted so early. It’s not always easy to typecast a player as a guard (as opposed to a center or tackle), but according to Pro-Football-Reference, Chris Naeole (Colorado) is the last guard to be selected in the top 10, when the Saints took him at 10 in 1997. Before that, you have to go back to 1988, when Dave Cadigan (USC) and Eric Moore (Indiana) went to the Jets and Giants. The last guard selected in the top five was Bill Fralic of Pittsburgh, who was taken by the Falcons with the second pick in the 1985 draft.

But when it comes to guards, there’s an even rarer feat than landing in the top five of the draft. The last time any rookie made the Pro Bowl at guard – regardless of draft position – came in 1983. Can you name him?

It’s hard not to be amazed by the seasons that Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson had as first-year starters in 2012. It’s playing around with the cut-offs to an absurd degree, but prior to 2012, only six men in NFL history had ever:

• Averaged 7.9 yards per attempt on at least 200 passes
• Average at least 5.0 yards per carry on at least 50 rushes

You probably wouldn’t be surprised to know that Fran Tarkenton, Steve Young, Daunte Culpepper, Michael Vick, and Aaron Rodgers were five of the players to accomplish this feat. Then, in 2012, Kaepernick, Griffin, and Wilson joined the list, as did Cam Newton.

But can you name the remaining member of the 7.9/200/5.0/50 club?

San Diego’s Danario Alexander caught 37 passes for 658 yards and 7 touchdowns in 10 games last year. Those might not look like great numbers, but when Philip Rivers looked his way, Alexander tended to produce. Alexander only saw 62 targets last season, but led the league with a 10.6 yards-per-target average (minimum 50 targets). Since 2000, there have been 21 receivers to average at least 11 yards per target on 50 targets.

I’ve blanked out the first two rows, because the same player has recorded the two highest yards/target seasons over the last thirteen years. Can you guess who it is?
[continue reading…]

In an effort to prove that bloggers actually go to bars and to reassure you that you know more about football than your average bar patron…

I was at a bar the other night when it was revealed that it was Trivia Night. Once I heard that the first category was NFL, I decided to throw my hat into the ring. The topic was “2013 Hall of Fame candidates.” (this was before the 2013 Class was announced.)

I feel pretty confident that the average Football Perspective reader would have no trouble answer these questions, although I will admit that they struck me as slightly harder than the level of questions I would expect at a typical bar trivia night.

Question 1: Which six-time Pro Bowl running back started his career in Los Angeles and ended it in the Super Bowl?

Question 2: Which eleven-time Pro Bowler played his entire career with the Baltimore Ravens?

Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun pointed out an interesting bit of trivia today: Courtney Upshaw has now won back-to-back titles in college and the NFL. Back in October 2009, the Minnesota Vikings were 5-0, and new additions Brett Favre and rookie Percy Harvin were a big part of their success. Harvin had won the national championship with Florida and Tim Tebow in 2008, and I wondered: how often does a player win a national championship in college and then win the Super Bowl the next season?

As of that post, only three players had won a college championship their last season in college and then were starters on a Super Bowl champion the following year: Randall Gay (LSU 2003, New England 2004), William Floyd (Florida State 1993, San Francisco 1994) and Tony Dorsett (Pittsburgh 1976, Dallas 1977).

So, has that changed? In 2009 the Saints won the Super Bowl, but they had no rookies from Florida. Alabama won the BCS Championship in 2009 and had seven players drafted in April 2010, but none of them landed on the Packers.  The next year Cam Newton and Nick Fairley helped the Auburn Tigers win the championship, but none of their players found themselves as New York Giants a year later. In 2011, the Crimson Tide won another national title, and Courtney Upshaw was named the Defensive MVP of the game.  Alabama defeated LSU in the Super Dome, the site of where Upshaw’s Ravens just won the Super Bowl.

With nine starts, Upshaw qualifies as a “starter” on the Ravens, so he joins Dorsett, Floyd, and Gay as the only players to to start for a Super Bowl champion a year after winning the national championship. In an odd twist, if we require a player to start for the two teams, Gay drops off the list: he was a nickel back on the 2003 LSU Tigers, behind future NFL cornerbacks Corey Webster and Travis Daniels. Dorsett has the most impressive two-year run, as he ran for for 1,948 yards and 21 touchdowns and won the Heisman Trophy for the Panthers in ’76 and then rushed for 1,007 yards and 12 touchdowns for the Cowboys a year later.
[continue reading…]

A week before the Super Bowl, I asked if you could name the seven wide receivers to start for two different teams that reached the Super Bowl. In the comments to that post, JWL alerted me to a pretty cool piece of Super bowl trivia.

Eight different men have been the leading rusher in multiple Super Bowls. Seven of these men (Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants; Antowain Smith, New England Patriots; Terrell Davis, Denver Broncos; Emmitt Smith, Dallas Cowboys; Tony Dorsett, Dallas Cowboys; Franco Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers; and Larry Csonka, Miami Dolphins) pulled off this feat while playing for the same team.

However, one running has been the leading rusher in two Super Bowls for two different teams. He’s the subject of today’s trivia question. Can you name him?

Anquan Boldin is back in the Super Bowl. Four years ago, Boldin and the Cardinals lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII. That season, Boldin was one of the game’s best wide receivers, catching 89 passes for 1,038 yards and scoring 11 touchdowns in just 12 games. His production was slightly less impressive in 2012 — 65/921/4 in 15 games — but he was still a valuable member of the Ravens offense.

He signed with Baltimore in the 2010 offseason, and after a few heartbreaking post-seasons, Boldin and the Ravens are back in the Super Bowl. Since he was one of the team’s starting receivers this year, that makes him the 7th wide receiver to start for two different teams that reached a Super Bowl.

How many of the first six can you name (either with or without any hints)? For each receiver, the one hint shows the two Super Bowl franchises. Let us know how you did in the comments: as always, the honor system will be strictly enforced.

Last year, Mario Manningham was one of the stars of Super Bowl XLVI, as his great sidelines catch helped the Giants defeat the Patriots (although it wasn’t even his most meaningful catch in that game). As a member of the 49ers this season, Manningham has been placed on injured reserve, but that doesn’t make him ineligible to earn a second straight Super Bowl ring. Brandon Jacobs, who was waived by the 49ers in December, is in the same boat.

How rare is that? Believe it or not, only four players in NFL history have ever won back-to-back Super Bowls with different teams. Guard Russ Hochstein was drafted by Tampa Bay in 2001 and played in one game in 2002; he was waived in October and signed by the Patriots a week later. He stayed in New England through 2008, so Hochstein picked up a Super Bowl ring for his cup of coffee with the Bucs and then earned two more the next two seasons in New England. Hochstein was also a freshman with Nebraska in 1997, when the Cornhuskers were named national champions by USA Today and ESPN.

Defensive back Derrick Martin was drafted by Baltimore in 2006 and has already spent time with four distinguished franchises. He made the AFC Championship Game with the Ravens in 2008, won the Super Bowl with the Packers in 2010, won another super Bowl with the Giants in 2011, and nearly made it back there this year with New England.

Those are the two obscure names. The other two? Well, let’s see if you can guess.

Now that the Super Bowl matchup is set, I thought I’d start the two-week period with some Super Bow history. The table below lists some information from each of the first 46 Super Bowls. With Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick facing off, that ends five-year streak where at least one of the two quarterbacks in the Super Bowl had previously won (or been in) a Super Bowl:

Year	SB	Winner	PF	Loser	PA	Location	ST	QB	Opp QB	MVP
2011	XLVI	New York Giants	21	New England Patriots	17	Indianapolis	IN	Eli Manning	Tom Brady	Eli Manning
2010	XLV	Green Bay Packers	31	Pittsburgh Steelers	25	Arlington	TX	Aaron Rodgers	Ben Roethlisberger	Aaron Rodgers
2009	XLIV	New Orleans Saints	31	Indianapolis Colts	17	Miami	FL	Drew Brees	Peyton Manning	Drew Brees
2008	XLIII	Pittsburgh Steelers	27	Arizona Cardinals	23	Tampa	FL	Ben Roethlisberger	Kurt Warner	Santonio Holmes
2007	XLII	New York Giants	17	New England Patriots	14	Glendale	AZ	Eli Manning	Tom Brady	Eli Manning
2006	XLI	Indianapolis Colts	29	Chicago Bears	17	Miami	FL	Peyton Manning	Rex Grossman	Peyton Manning
2005	XL	Pittsburgh Steelers	21	Seattle Seahawks	10	Detroit	MI	Ben Roethlisberger	Matt Hasselbeck	Hines Ward
2004	XXIX	New England Patriots	24	Philadelphia Eagles	21	Jacksonville	FL	Tom Brady	Donovan McNabb	Deion Branch
2003	XXXVIII	New England Patriots	32	Carolina Panthers	29	Houston	TX	Tom Brady	Jake Delhomme	Tom Brady
2002	XXXVII	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	48	Oakland Raiders	21	San Diego	CA	Brad Johnson	Rich Gannon	Dexter Jackson
2001	XXXVI	New England Patriots	20	St. Louis Rams	17	New Orleans	LA	Tom Brady	Kurt Warner	Tom Brady
2000	XXXV	Baltimore Ravens	34	New York Giants	7	Tampa	FL	Trent Dilfer	Kerry Collins	Ray Lewis
1999	XXXIV	St. Louis Rams	23	Tennessee Titans	16	Atlanta	GA	Kurt Warner	Steve McNair	Kurt Warner
1998	XXXIII	Denver Broncos	34	Atlanta Falcons	19	Miami	FL	John Elway	Chris Chandler	John Elway
1997	XXXII	Denver Broncos	31	Green Bay Packers	24	San Diego	CA	John Elway	Brett Favre	Terrell Davis
1996	XXXI	Green Bay Packers	35	New England Patriots	21	New Orleans	LA	Brett Favre	Drew Bledsoe	Desmond Howard
1995	XXX	Dallas Cowboys	27	Pittsburgh Steelers	17	Tempe	AZ	Troy Aikman	Neil O'Donnell	Larry Brown
1994	XXIX	San Francisco 49ers	49	San Diego Chargers	26	Miami	FL	Steve Young	Stan Humphries	Steve Young
1993	XXVIII	Dallas Cowboys	30	Buffalo Bills	13	Atlanta	GA	Troy Aikman	Jim Kelly	Emmitt Smith
1992	XXVII	Dallas Cowboys	52	Buffalo Bills	17	Pasadena	CA	Troy Aikman	Jim Kelly	Troy Aikman
1991	XXVI	Washington Redskins	37	Buffalo Bills	24	Minneapolis	MN	Mark Rypien	Jim Kelly	Mark Rypien
1990	XXV	New York Giants	20	Buffalo Bills	19	Tampa	FL	Jeff Hostetler	Jim Kelly	Ottis Anderson
1989	XXIV	San Francisco 49ers	55	Denver Broncos	10	New Orleans	LA	Joe Montana	John Elway	Joe Montana
1988	XXIII	San Francisco 49ers	20	Cincinnati Bengals	16	Miami	FL	Joe Montana	Boomer Esiason	Jerry Rice
1987	XXII	Washington Redskins	42	Denver Broncos	10	San Diego	CA	Doug Williams	John Elway	Doug Williams
1986	XXI	New York Giants	39	Denver Broncos	20	Pasadena	CA	Phil Simms	John Elway	Phil Simms
1985	XX	Chicago Bears	46	New England Patriots	10	New Orleans	LA	Jim McMahon	Tony Eason	Richard Dent
1984	XIX	San Francisco 49ers	38	Miami Dolphins	16	Stanford	CA	Joe Montana	Dan Marino	Joe Montana
1983	XVIII	Los Angeles Raiders	38	Washington Redskins	9	Tampa	FL	Jim Plunkett	Joe Theismann	Marcus Allen
1982	XVII	Washington Redskins	27	Miami Dolphins	17	Pasadena	CA	Joe Theismann	David Woodley	John Riggins
1981	XVI	San Francisco 49ers	26	Cincinnati Bengals	21	Pontiac	MI	Joe Montana	Ken Anderson	Joe Montana
1980	XV	Oakland Raiders	27	Philadelphia Eagles	10	New Orleans	LA	Jim Plunkett	Ron Jaworski	Jim Plunkett
1979	XIV	Pittsburgh Steelers	31	Los Angeles Rams	19	Pasadena	CA	Terry Bradshaw	Vince Ferragamo	Terry Bradshaw
1978	XIII	Pittsburgh Steelers	35	Dallas Cowboys	31	Miami	FL	Terry Bradshaw	Roger Staubach	Terry Bradshaw
1977	XII	Dallas Cowboys	27	Denver Broncos	10	New Orleans	LA	Roger Staubach	Craig Morton	Randy White [1]Co-MVP with Harvey Martin
1976	XI	Oakland Raiders	32	Minnesota Vikings	14	Pasadena	CA	Ken Stabler	Fran Tarkenton	Fred Biletnikoff
1975	X	Pittsburgh Steelers	21	Dallas Cowboys	17	Miami	FL	Terry Bradshaw	Roger Staubach	Lynn Swann
1974	IX	Pittsburgh Steelers	16	Minnesota Vikings	6	New Orleans	LA	Terry Bradshaw	Fran Tarkenton	Franco Harris
1973	VIII	Miami Dolphins	24	Minnesota Vikings	7	Houston	TX	Bob Griese	Fran Tarkenton	Larry Csonka
1972	VII	Miami Dolphins	14	Washington Redskins	7	Los Angeles	CA	Bob Griese	Billy Kilmer	Jake Scott
1971	VI	Dallas Cowboys	24	Miami Dolphins	3	New Orleans	LA	Roger Staubach	Bob Griese	Roger Staubach
1970	V	Baltimore Colts	16	Dallas Cowboys	13	Miami	FL	Johnny Unitas	Craig Morton	Chuck Howley
1969	IV	Kansas City Chiefs	23	Minnesota Vikings	7	New Orleans	LA	Len Dawson	Joe Kapp	Len Dawson
1968	III	New York Jets	16	Baltimore Colts	7	Miami	FL	Joe Namath	Earl Morrall	Joe Namath
1967	II	Green Bay Packers	33	Oakland Raiders	14	Miami	FL	Bart Starr	Daryle Lamonica	Bart Starr
1966	I	Green Bay Packers	35	Kansas City Chiefs	10	Los Angeles	CA	Bart Starr	Len Dawson	Bart Starr

[continue reading…]

In 2011, San Francisco made it to the NFC Championship Game with Alex Smith at quarterback; today, the 49ers will face the Falcons with Colin Kaepernick as their starter. This makes them the 9th team since 1970 to make the conference championship game in consecutive years but to start different quarterbacks in that game. Can you name the last team?

I was going to save this post for later today if the Broncos won, but seeing as how Trindon Holliday just set a playoff record with the longest punt return touchdown in post-season history, the timing feels more appropriate now. Holliday was a sixth round pick of the Houston Texans in 2010. At 5-5, many viewed him too short to be effective in the NFL, but the Texans saw potential in him as returner (he led the SEC in punt return average in 2009 at LSU). Holliday didn’t make an instant impact, but the shortest player in the NFL in 25 years is trying to vault one of the biggest hurdles in the game: a 19-0 season.

Holliday led the NFL in punt return yards this season and finished the year 16-0. Wearing #16, Holliday gained 341 all-purpose yards in five games with Houston before the Texans decided that he wasn’t providing a big enough spark in the return game. The Broncos quickly scooped him up, and the Broncos finished the year 11-0. That gave Holliday a perfect 16-0 season. According to my data, no player has ever gone 19-0 in a season. Can Holliday become the first?

Merry Christmas from Football Perspective! Most people know that Jay Cutler is from Santa Claus, Indiana, but did you know that that Arizona offensive lineman Daryn Colledge is from the North Pole? Well, at least from the one in Alaska.

Former Oregon State lineman Johan Asiata had a cup of coffee with the Bears two years ago, and he’s one of two players in NFL history from Christchurch, New Zealand (Riki Ellison is the other). Wes Ours was from Christian, Kentucky and Wayne McClure was from Merryvile, Tennesssee, while Kyle Rudolph is one of seven players with that last name in league history.

On a more relevant note, today is the 41st anniversary of one of the best games in NFL history. On December 25th, 1971, the Miami Dolphins defeated the defending Kansas City Chiefs in double overtime. The win prevented Len Dawson from going for his 2nd Super Bowl title in three years and helped Don Shula reach the first of three consecutive Super Bowls.

Hopefully you are celebrating the day with your loved ones today. Thanks for being a part of Football Perspective. I’ll close with this list, courtesy of PFR: There are also 63 players in NFL history born our Christmas day, including a Hall of Famer and one of the best quarterbacks not currently in Canton.

Happy Holidays!

What do you give to the man who already has everything? How about a Comeback Player of the Year Award?

Right now, the choice for AP Comeback Player of the Year is a two-horse race between Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson. If Manning wins the award, it will put him in pretty rare territory: he’d be just the fourth player to, over the course of a career, be named by the Associated Press as the Most Valuable Player of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, and Super Bowl MVP. Can you name the first three?

Below is one hint for each of the three players who have won all three awards.

Scott Kacsmar, friend of Football Perspective and the leading writer on quarterback comebacks, noted that Andrew Luck has 5 game-winning drives in his first 12 games. Where does that rank historically?

To be clear, game-winning drives are not an official statistic, and while Kacsmar has gone through thousands of games to record data on the subject, we can’t confirm that the below list in 100% complete. With that disclaimer out of the way, the table below displays all quarterbacks with at least 3 game-winning drives in their first 12 NFL games:

If we look just at quarterbacks in their first 12 starts, well, a different name vaults to the top of the list. Tim Tebow launched a phenomenon known as Tebow-mania last year, thanks to his dramatic comebacks seemingly every week last November and December.

Luck’s career trajectory looks to be on a much better path than Tebow, Jay Schroeder or John Skelton, but hey, I don’t make the trivia, I just present it.

The table below shows how many game-winning drives were led by quarterbacks in their first 12 starts. Thanks to Scott Kacsmar and Pro-Football-Reference.com for the data.
[continue reading…]

In case you haven’t noticed, Detroit’s Matt Stafford is throwing the ball a lot this year. He’s thrown the second most passes of any quarterback through 11 games in league history.

In 2011, Stafford led the NFL with 663 pass attempts, the third most in NFL history. In my preview of the 2012 Lions, I threw some cold water on Stafford’s outlook, noting that while he threw for 5,000 yards, his 13th-place finish in Y/A was more telling. This season Stafford is throwing even more frequently — he’s up three pass attempts per game — and is on pace to break the record for pass attempts in a season. And while Stafford may again hit the 5,000-yard mark, he currently ranks just 21st in yards per attempt, which is less forgivable in connection with a 4-7 record than a 10-6 mark.

I suspect that most fans of Football Perspective are pretty good at trivia, so I’m not going to let you off easy. You probably know which quarterback holds the record for pass attempts in a season:

The more challenging question is this: which team holds the record for most team pass attempts in a season? Right now, Detroit is on pace for 729 pass attempts this season (Shaun Hill threw 13 passes), which would break the record.

Stump your family with some Football Perspective trivia today. The tables below show the leaders in various categories in all games played on Thanksgiving since 1960.

Most passing yards

Rk	Year	Tm	Opp	PF	PA	QB	CMP	ATT	PYD	TD	INT
1	1998	dal	min	36	46	Troy Aikman	34	57	455	1	0
2	1995	det	min	44	38	Scott Mitchell	30	45	410	4	1
3	1995	min	det	38	44	Warren Moon	30	47	384	3	2
4	2007	gnb	det	37	26	Brett Favre	31	41	381	3	0
5	1998	min	dal	46	36	Randall Cunningham	17	35	359	4	1
6	1997	dal	oti	14	27	Troy Aikman	27	42	356	2	3
7	2010	nor	dal	30	27	Drew Brees	23	39	352	1	1
8	1994	det	buf	35	21	Dave Krieg	20	25	351	3	0
9	2009	gnb	det	34	12	Aaron Rodgers	28	39	348	3	0
10	2010	nwe	det	45	24	Tom Brady	21	27	341	4	0

Most passing touchdowns

Rk	Year	Tm	Opp	PF	PA	QB	CMP	ATT	PYD	TD	INT
1	2004	clt	det	41	9	Peyton Manning	23	28	236	6	0
1	1977	mia	crd	55	14	Bob Griese	15	23	207	6	1
3	2006	dal	tam	38	10	Tony Romo	22	29	306	5	0
3	1962	nyj	den	46	45	Johnny Green	22	46	292	5	3
5	1995	det	min	44	38	Scott Mitchell	30	45	410	4	1
5	1998	min	dal	46	36	Randall Cunningham	17	35	359	4	1
5	2010	nwe	det	45	24	Tom Brady	21	27	341	4	0
5	1987	dal	min	38	44	Danny White	25	41	341	4	3
5	1985	det	nyj	31	20	Eric Hipple	19	29	269	4	1
5	2008	phi	crd	48	20	Donovan McNabb	27	39	260	4	0
5	1994	gnb	dal	31	42	Brett Favre	27	40	257	4	0
5	1985	dal	crd	35	17	Danny White	14	26	235	4	1

[continue reading…]

On November 15, 2010, Michael Vick humiliated the Washington Redskins before a national television audience on Monday Night Football. The big news right before kickoff was that the ‘Skins had signed former Eagle QB Donovan McNabb to a five-year, $78 million contract extension, an ironic note that wouldn’t be lost on observers as McNabb’s replacement, Vick, put together one of the greatest all-around quarterbacking performances in NFL history:

Date	Tm		Opp	Result	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	SkYd	ANYPA	Rush	R_Yds	R_TD
11/15/2010	PHI	@	WAS	W 59-28	20	28	71.4%	333	4	0	150.7	1	1	14.2	8	80	2

McNabb, on the other hand, was mediocre, going 17-31 with 295 yards and 2 TDs, but also 3 picks. More damning, Washington’s offense produced zero points until the Redskins were in a 35-0 hole and the game was essentially over.

Fast-forward 735 days, though, and the Redskins got their payback. An injured Vick was on the shelf, the Eagles entered the game on a 5-game losing streak, and electrifying rookie Robert Griffin III extended it to six with a brilliant performance of his own:

Date	Tm		Opp	Result	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	SkYd	ANYPA	Rush	R_Yds	R_TD
11/18/2012	WAS		PHI	W 31-6	14	15	93.3%	200	4	0	158.3	2	8	16.0	12	84	0

So, which performance was better, Vick’s original or RGIII’s remix? Vick threw for 133 more yards, rushed for practically the same amount as Griffin (on 4 fewer carries), and produced more total TDs. Then again, Griffin completed 93% of his passes and put together the vaunted 158.3 “perfect” QB rating. It’s a tough call.

Sound off with your opinion below!

On Sunday, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger will meet for the first time since Manning picked up his second Super Bowl ring. The game will be the 9th such matchup between two teams whose starting quarterbacks have each won multiple Super Bowls as starters.

This is the third straight year where we have such a game on the heels of a 25-year drought. In each of the last two seasons, the Steelers and Patriots have played, with Roethlisberger and Tom Brady starting both games. But prior to 2010, the last NFL matchup between two starting quarterbacks with multiple rings was in 1985, featuring the San Francisco 49ers (Joe Montana) and the Los Angeles Raiders (Jim Plunkett).

But today’s trivia question wants to know: which two quarterbacks starred in the first NFL game between two quarterbacks with multiple Super Bowl rings?

Hat tip to The Jerk from the Footballguys message boards for pointing this out to me.

Last week, I noted that Calvin Johnson was trying to become just the third player since 1970 to lead the NFL in receiving yards in consecutive seasons. The rushing crown is much more likely to go to the same player; in fact, ten rushing champions since 1973 also led the league in rushing yards in the prior season.

Maurice Jones-Drew led the league in rushing in 2011, but isn’t going to repeat in 2012. Who was the last player to win the rushing crown in consecutive years?

Calvin Johnson led the league in receiving last season with 1,681 yards. Johnson is fourth in receiving yards this season behind A.J. Green, Wes Welker, and Reggie Wayne, but Johnson is 2nd in yards per game as the Lions have had their bye week while the Bengals and Patriots have not.

If Johnson can lead the league in receiving yards again, he’d become just the third person since the merger to accomplish that feat. Which brings us to today’s trivia question.

Who was the last player to lead the league in receiving yards in consecutive seasons?

[Today is a two-post day at Football Perspective. Check here for my week 2 power rankings, while Neil provides an innovative look at the biggest comebacks of the last 35 years in this post. — Chase

In my last post, I introduced a method of estimating the home team’s pre-game win probability in Excel using the Vegas spread:

p(W) = (1-NORMDIST(0.5,-(home_line),13.86,TRUE)) + 0.5*(NORMDIST(0.5,-(home_line),13.86,TRUE)-NORMDIST(-0.5,-(home_line),13.86,TRUE))

Let me explain the rationale behind the scary-looking equation. The first part represents the probability that the home team ends regulation time with a lead of 1 point or more, using Hal Stern’s finding that the home team’s final margin of victory can be approximated by a normal random variable with a mean of the Vegas line and a standard deviation of 13.86. The second part is the probability that regulation ends in a tie, multiplied by 0.5 (this assumes each team has roughly a 50-50 chance of winning in overtime).

With a small twist, we can also apply this formula within games, to the line-score data for every quarter. Within a game, the home team’s probability becomes:

p(W) = (1-NORMDIST(away_margin+0.5,-home_line*(minleft/60),13.86/SQRT(60/minleft),TRUE))+0.5*(NORMDIST(away_margin+0.5,-home_line*(minleft/60),13.86/SQRT(60/minleft),TRUE)-NORMDIST(away_margin-0.5,-home_line*(minleft/60),13.86/SQRT(60/minleft),TRUE))

This is the same equation as before, but we’re adding in Home_Margin (home team pts minus road team pts for the game, through the end of the quarter in question), reducing the effect of the home Vegas line linearly based on how much time remains in the game, and changing the standard deviation of scoring margin to become:

Stdev = 13.86 / sqrt(60 / n)

where n = the number of minutes remaining in the game.

These changes will help us estimate a team’s chances of winning at the end of each quarter. For instance, Monday night’s game — where the Falcons were a 3-point home favorite over the Broncos — goes from:

To this:

[continue reading…]

Three teams have started 0-2 and won the Super Bowl. In 1993, the Dallas Cowboys started 0-2 in part because Emmitt Smith was holding out for a new contract. In 2001, the New England Patriots — with Drew Bledsoe as starting quarterback — began the year 0-2, before Tom Brady got his first professional start in week three. In 2007, the Gianst allowed 80 points in the first two weeks of the regular season, months before shutting down the highest scoring offense in NFL history in Super Bowl XLII.

There have been 68 teams to win a championship since 1950, including the six AFL champions in the pre-Super Bowl era. 41 of those teams started the season 2-0, and the group as a whole had a 0.790 winning percentage after two weeks. That shouldn’t be too surprising, as the best teams are likely to win most weeks. The last six Super Bowl champions not named the Giants have started the year 2-0.

But which Super Bowl champ had the greatest points differential after two weeks? One team started the year with wins of 34-3 and 39-13 (and won 42-10 in week three).

Note: Tomorrow, in lieu of Sunday trivia, I’ll present the first edition of the SRS for college football teams.

Welcome back, NFL. The first of 17 great Sundays is upon us, and this is always one of my favorite days of the year. I’ll even put up with the garbage that is pre-game and post-game shows to watch football from 9 in the morning until after midnight. I’m sure many of you will do the same, so good luck to whomever you’re rooting for today.

In Friday’s post, I noted that Anquan Boldin gained 217 receiving yards in week 1 of the 2003 season, trailing only Frank Clarke (1962) for most receiving yards on opening weekend.

But as you get ready for today’s actions, chew on this trivia question. Which player gained the most rushing yards in week 1 of an NFL season? Like yesterday, I’ve given you a special hint with this mystery photo.

Yesterday, I wrote about the interesting career of Anquan Boldin. If I had written that article a year ago, I would have noted that Boldin was the all-time leader in receptions per game in NFL history. At the time, Boldin had 650 receptions in 111 games, an average of 5.86 receptions per game. But after just 3.6 catches per game with the Ravens in 2011, Boldin’s rate dropped to 5.66 for his career, good enough for only third place in NFL history.

But who is number one? Jerry Rice is one of 10 players to average at least five receptions per game for their career, but he’s number 10. With 303 career games, there’s a limit to what we could have expected from him. The career leader in receptions per game averaged exactly 5.80 receptions per game. To help you out, I broke out my MS paint skills to give you a photo of this man. Can you guess who it is?

Coming up with trivia questions every weekend isn’t as easy as you might think. Or, if you think it’s easy, submit them to chase [at] footballperspective [dot] com. Otherwise, you’ll get oddball questions like this one today.

Daunte Culpepper’s 2004 season was one of the most incredible in football history. He gained 5,123 combined passing and rushing yards, which stood as an NFL record until 2011. He also threw for 39 touchdown passes and ran for two more, making it one of the most impressive statistical seasons in history.

It’s tempting to give all the credit to Randy Moss, but that was actually Moss’ worst season in Minnesota. Due to a hamstring injury, he was inactive or ineffective for five games, and ended the year with only 767 yards. That brings us to Sunday’s trivia question. Can you name the player who led the ’04 Vikings in receptions?

The past three days, Football Perspective has looked at the best quarterbacks in NFL history. On Wednesday, I explained the methodology for grading each quarterback in each season. Thursday, I came up with an all-time career list of the best quarterbacks based on their regular season play. Yesterday, I presented the data on playoff performances.

Which leads us into today’s trivia question. Only two quarterbacks have ever led two different teams to championships. Can you name either of them? No quarterback has ever won Super Bowls with different teams, although a certain Mile High quarterback will attempt to do that this year.

Yesterday’s trivia question centered on which team has won the most regular season games since 1970. Today we’ll shift to post-season results.

Every NFL team has now won a playoff game, as the Houston Texans joined the club in January with a win over the Bengals in the wildcard round of the playoffs. That puts them tied with the Detroit Lions for fewest playoff wins since 1970; and unlike the Texans, the Lions have been around for far too long to have mustered just one playoff win in the last 43 years. Detroit defeated the young Dallas Cowboys in the division round of the 1991 playoffs — just before the Cowboys would put it all together and win the next two Super Bowls.

But what about the most playoff wins? Like yesterday, take a second to think about it, or click on the multiple choice answers below for some hints:

The Chicago Bears have won 712 regular season games, most in NFL history. Of course, the Bears even predate the “NFL”, having had their inaugural season as the Decatur Staleys in 1920. At the time, the Staleys, the Cardinals (playing in Chicago), and several since defunct franchises were playing in the American Professional Football Association. The next year, the Green Bay Packers joined, and in 1922, the APFA was renamed the National Football League.

The easiest trivia question of all time is which team has the most losses in NFL history. That would be the Cardinals, whose 699 regular season losses outpace the Detroit Lions by exactly 100. The Eagles have the third most losses, with 549.

But what if we examine performance in relatively modern times? Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, which team has the most regular season victories?

Take a second to think about it, or click on the multiple choice answers if you would like some hints:

Pro Bowls aren’t a great measure of NFL ability, but they’re one of the few statistics that enable comparisons across positions. Ray Lewis has made 13 Pro Bowls in his 16-year career, and he can tie the NFL record if he makes another trip to Hawaii this season. Only two players in NFL history have ever made 14 Pro Bowls in their career.

As you would suspect, both are in the Hall of Fame. Among eligible players, Will Shields is the only non-Hall of Famer with 10 or more Pro Bowls on his resume, and Shields will surely be inducted within the next couple of years.

But can you name either of the two men who have made 14 Pro Bowls?