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Checkdowns: College Team Efficiency Ratings

Note: There are many things theoretical issues with this post. That said, if I had to write down and explain all the drawbacks of the data I’m about to present, I wouldn’t have the time to make quick posts like this. So….

I thought it would be cool to take a slightly (emphasis on slightly) more nuanced look at team rushing and passing stats so far in 2012.

The first table shows how many “rushing yards over average” each team has this year. First, I calculated each team’s “Adjusted Yards per Carry” which is simply Yards per Carry with a 20-yard bonus for each touchdown. On average, teams are averaging 5.31 AYPC in 2012; to calculate rushing yards over average, I multiplied the number of carries for each team by the difference between their AYPC average and 5.31. As expected, Oregon ranks first.

We can do the same exercise on the defensive side of the ball. Note that because this isn’t a closed system because the schools play FCS teams, the average AYPC allowed is lower than the average AYPC gained.

For passing, I used AY/A as my base statistic — in college football, sacks are counted as negative rushes — which is (Yards + 20*TD – 45*INT). Then I multiplied each team’s number of pass attempts by the difference between their AY/A and 7.17, the average AY/A for FBS teams in 2012:

And we can measure pass efficiency on the defensive side of the ball in the same way:

Finally, let’s put this all together. The table below shows how many yards over average each team produced in each of the four categories, along with their ranks in each metric. The last two columns show how many yards over average overall each team has gained, and the final column is the average of the four ranks.

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