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Checkdowns: FCS ratings and the FCS playoffs

In connection with calculating my college football SRS ratings at the FBS level, I also calculate them at the FCS level but rarely publish them. But with the FCS playoffs underway, I figured, why not? Here are the FCS ratings as of November 25th, 2012:



The FCS has a playoff system — you can check out the bracket here. Here is a quick preview of the eight games on tap for next weekend.

Yes, this is where Eastern Washington plays

  • South Dakota State crushed Eastern Illinois, setting them up to play #1 ranked (in both the tournament and the SRS) North Dakota State on December 1st in Fargo. I’m not sure how important home field will be, but I’d probably set the line at NDSU -10.
  • The #2 seed is Eastern Washington, which hosts Wagner, fresh off of a 31-20 upset win over Colgate. This should be a bloodbath on the red field, with the SRS liking Eastern Washington by 19.5 points.
  • Montana State is the 3 seed and hosts Stony Brook, a Cinderella story that is becoming a legitimate FCS college football school. I grew up just a few minutes from SBSU, and the Seawolves have a legitimate NFL prospect in running back Miguel Maysonet. But Montana State is a powerhouse, and the SRS says they should be a 9.8-point favorite in Bozeman.
  • #4 seed Old Dominision is a 7.1-point favorite against 8-4 Coastal Carolina.
  • Triple Option and SEC foe Georgia Southern hosts Central Arkansas in perhaps the second best game of the weekend in Statesboro. Georgia Southern should be a 5.2-point favorite in one of only two games between two top-15 teams.
  • Appalachian State, when not defeating Michigan, finds itself in the FCS playoffs after an 8-3 year. They should be only 1.3-point favorites in Boone, North Carolina against visiting Illinois State.
  • But there’s no doubt what the headline game of the week is. Cal Poly is 9-2 and has a 33.2 SRS rating, and won at FBS member Wyoming earlier this year. Sam Houston State is #2 in the SRS despite an 8-3 record. That’s because they lost to Baylor (by only 25) and Texas A&M (by only 19). Sam Houston should be an 8.6-point favorite in Huntsville, in the only game featuring two top-ten SRS teams.
  • Rounding out the slate are Wofford and New Hampshire. Wofford should be a 9.2-point favorite as the Wildcats travel to Spartanburg, South Carolina.
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