Here’s a quick set of quarterback ratings I was messing around with, based on Doug’s Simple Rating System. The basic setup: I took every passer-game (Att > 0) since the 2010 season, weighting for recency according to Wayne Winston’s method. I ran the data through the SRS to adjust for the quality of opponent pass defenses, creating a predicted Net YPA rate for each passer in each game via the following formula:
Predicted NYPA = League Constant + Home-Field Advantage + Passer Rating – Opponent Pass D Rating
The league constant in this case was a Net YPA of 6.24; the homefield component (which was positive while at home, negative on the road, and 0 in Super Bowls) was 0.05. Minimize the sum of squared errors between predicted and actual NYPA for each passer-game (weighted by recency and how many dropbacks the passer had in the game), and you’ve got a set of opponent-adjusted, recency-weighted QB ratings.
Throwing out the Brett Favres and Curtis Painters of the world who haven’t been active this year, here are the full ratings:
And if you just limit it to guys who started at least 1 game at QB this year:
Rnk | Player | Wgtd Drpbks | NYPA Rating |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Kirk Cousins | 47.2 | 2.37 |
2 | Tom Brady | 467.0 | 1.23 |
3 | Russell Wilson | 266.0 | 0.95 |
4 | Robert Griffin III | 257.7 | 0.92 |
5 | Peyton Manning | 382.9 | 0.78 |
6 | Drew Brees | 472.3 | 0.75 |
7 | Matt Ryan | 440.8 | 0.73 |
8 | Colin Kaepernick | 147.4 | 0.72 |
9 | Eli Manning | 399.1 | 0.64 |
10 | Cam Newton | 359.5 | 0.64 |
11 | Tony Romo | 468.3 | 0.54 |
12 | Aaron Rodgers | 394.9 | 0.50 |
13 | Matt Schaub | 376.3 | 0.39 |
14 | Alex Smith | 176.1 | 0.39 |
15 | Charlie Batch | 66.1 | 0.37 |
16 | Josh Freeman | 395.0 | 0.28 |
17 | Ben Roethlisberger | 324.6 | 0.23 |
18 | Carson Palmer | 445.6 | 0.15 |
19 | Matthew Stafford | 521.2 | 0.10 |
20 | Joe Flacco | 410.4 | 0.00 |
21 | Andrew Luck | 433.0 | -0.11 |
22 | Jake Locker | 192.4 | -0.11 |
23 | Sam Bradford | 399.1 | -0.15 |
24 | Ryan Tannehill | 320.8 | -0.20 |
25 | Michael Vick | 231.4 | -0.30 |
26 | Brandon Weeden | 367.1 | -0.40 |
27 | Andy Dalton | 395.9 | -0.40 |
28 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 374.6 | -0.43 |
29 | Jay Cutler | 307.5 | -0.43 |
30 | Philip Rivers | 419.2 | -0.49 |
31 | Matt Hasselbeck | 181.8 | -0.58 |
32 | Chad Henne | 212.4 | -0.59 |
33 | Matt Cassel | 196.9 | -0.62 |
34 | Mark Sanchez | 318.0 | -0.69 |
35 | John Skelton | 172.9 | -1.04 |
36 | Nick Foles | 205.3 | -1.16 |
37 | Blaine Gabbert | 213.0 | -1.23 |
38 | Christian Ponder | 334.1 | -1.23 |
39 | Kevin Kolb | 132.1 | -1.38 |
40 | Jason Campbell | 55.1 | -1.46 |
41 | Brady Quinn | 147.2 | -1.49 |
42 | Byron Leftwich | 45.4 | -2.13 |
43 | Ryan Lindley | 133.6 | -2.37 |
Chase edit: We can also calculate a “yards over average” statistic for each quarterback, if we multiply his dropbacks by his NY/A rating.
Player | Wgtd Drpbks | NYPA Rating | VAL OV AVG |
---|---|---|---|
Tom Brady | 467 | 1.23 | 574 |
Drew Brees | 472.3 | 0.75 | 354 |
Matt Ryan | 440.8 | 0.73 | 322 |
Peyton Manning | 382.9 | 0.78 | 299 |
Eli Manning | 399.1 | 0.64 | 255 |
Tony Romo | 468.3 | 0.54 | 253 |
Russell Wilson | 266 | 0.95 | 253 |
Robert Griffin III | 257.7 | 0.92 | 237 |
Cam Newton | 359.5 | 0.64 | 230 |
Aaron Rodgers | 394.9 | 0.5 | 197 |
Matt Schaub | 376.3 | 0.39 | 147 |
Kirk Cousins | 47.2 | 2.37 | 112 |
Josh Freeman | 395 | 0.28 | 111 |
Colin Kaepernick | 147.4 | 0.72 | 106 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 324.6 | 0.23 | 75 |
Alex Smith | 176.1 | 0.39 | 69 |
Carson Palmer | 445.6 | 0.15 | 67 |
Matthew Stafford | 521.2 | 0.1 | 52 |
Shaun Hill | 8.8 | 5.13 | 45 |
Mohamed Sanu | 0.6 | 60.94 | 37 |
Charlie Batch | 66.1 | 0.37 | 24 |
Kyle Orton | 20.7 | 1.16 | 24 |
Matt Flynn | 13.2 | 1.74 | 23 |
Derek Anderson | 2.9 | 3.96 | 11 |
Kellen Clemens | 9.7 | 0.45 | 4 |
Chase Daniel | 1.2 | 2.02 | 2 |
Brian Hoyer | 0.2 | 9.8 | 2 |
Joe Flacco | 410.4 | 0 | 0 |
Jordan Palmer | 0 | -0.27 | 0 |
Dennis Dixon | 0.1 | -0.41 | 0 |
Rusty Smith | 3.3 | -0.03 | 0 |
Tyrod Taylor | 2.5 | -0.1 | 0 |
Drew Stanton | 0.5 | -0.56 | 0 |
Josh McCown | 4.7 | -0.17 | -1 |
Trent Edwards | 0.4 | -2.13 | -1 |
Bruce Gradkowski | 1.4 | -1.09 | -2 |
Jimmy Clausen | 1.3 | -2.17 | -3 |
Joe Webb | 5.3 | -0.77 | -4 |
Brad Smith | 0.7 | -6.04 | -4 |
David Carr | 1.2 | -4.09 | -5 |
Tarvaris Jackson | 26.4 | -0.2 | -5 |
Luke McCown | 2.5 | -2.14 | -5 |
Tyler Thigpen | 6.2 | -0.88 | -5 |
Graham Harrell | 2 | -2.79 | -6 |
Rex Grossman | 27.3 | -0.21 | -6 |
Charlie Whitehurst | 3.3 | -1.91 | -6 |
Matt Moore | 36.9 | -0.18 | -7 |
Ryan Mallett | 3.1 | -2.26 | -7 |
Terrelle Pryor | 1 | -7.09 | -7 |
Matt Leinart | 1.6 | -4.71 | -8 |
Dan Orlovsky | 21.3 | -0.76 | -16 |
Greg McElroy | 7 | -2.51 | -18 |
Caleb Hanie | 7.9 | -2.3 | -18 |
Jake Locker | 192.4 | -0.11 | -21 |
Colt McCoy | 24.7 | -0.9 | -22 |
Tim Tebow | 28.3 | -0.96 | -27 |
T.J. Yates | 22.1 | -1.24 | -27 |
Andrew Luck | 433 | -0.11 | -48 |
Sam Bradford | 399.1 | -0.15 | -60 |
Ryan Tannehill | 320.8 | -0.2 | -64 |
Michael Vick | 231.4 | -0.3 | -69 |
Jason Campbell | 55.1 | -1.46 | -80 |
Byron Leftwich | 45.4 | -2.13 | -97 |
Matt Hasselbeck | 181.8 | -0.58 | -105 |
Matt Cassel | 196.9 | -0.62 | -122 |
Chad Henne | 212.4 | -0.59 | -125 |
Jay Cutler | 307.5 | -0.43 | -132 |
Brandon Weeden | 367.1 | -0.4 | -147 |
Andy Dalton | 395.9 | -0.4 | -158 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 374.6 | -0.43 | -161 |
John Skelton | 172.9 | -1.04 | -180 |
Kevin Kolb | 132.1 | -1.38 | -182 |
Philip Rivers | 419.2 | -0.49 | -205 |
Brady Quinn | 147.2 | -1.49 | -219 |
Mark Sanchez | 318 | -0.69 | -219 |
Nick Foles | 205.3 | -1.16 | -238 |
Blaine Gabbert | 213 | -1.23 | -262 |
Ryan Lindley | 133.6 | -2.37 | -317 |
Christian Ponder | 334.1 | -1.23 | -411 |