Checkdowns: The Most Surprising NFL Results of the Season (Through 10 Weeks)

by Chase Stuart on November 14, 2012

When Miami was blown out by Tennessee this weekend, I was shocked. So I cooked up a quick little way to measure how shocked I should have been. First, here are the SRS standings for the NFL through 10 weeks:

Rk	Team	G	MOV	SOS	SRS
1	Houston Texans	9	11.6	-0.3	11.3
2	Chicago Bears	9	11.8	-0.9	10.9
3	Denver Broncos	9	9.4	1.3	10.7
4	New England Patriots	9	11.2	-0.9	10.4
5	San Francisco 49ers	9	9.2	0.4	9.7
6	Green Bay Packers	9	5.4	1.7	7.1
7	Atlanta Falcons	9	8.4	-2.3	6.1
8	Seattle Seahawks	10	3.7	2.1	5.8
9	New York Giants	10	5.1	0	5.1
10	Baltimore Ravens	9	6.1	-2.3	3.8
11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	5.3	-2.2	3.1
12	Dallas Cowboys	9	-0.8	3.6	2.8
13	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	3.7	-3.3	0.4
14	Detroit Lions	9	0.3	-0.3	0.1
15	Minnesota Vikings	10	1.1	-1	0.1
16	New Orleans Saints	9	-1.1	0.5	-0.6
17	San Diego Chargers	9	2.3	-3.4	-1.1
18	Washington Redskins	9	-2.1	0.9	-1.2
19	Carolina Panthers	9	-6.2	4.8	-1.5
20	St. Louis Rams	9	-5.8	4.1	-1.7
21	Arizona Cardinals	9	-3.6	1.6	-2
22	Cincinnati Bengals	9	-1.6	-1.2	-2.8
23	Miami Dolphins	9	-1.1	-3.1	-4.2
24	New York Jets	9	-6.2	1.9	-4.3
25	Indianapolis Colts	9	-2	-3.4	-5.4
26	Buffalo Bills	9	-7.2	1	-6.2
27	Cleveland Browns	9	-5	-1.3	-6.3
28	Philadelphia Eagles	9	-7.6	1	-6.5
29	Tennessee Titans	10	-9.2	1.6	-7.6
30	Oakland Raiders	9	-10	-0.7	-10.7
31	Kansas City Chiefs	9	-11.9	-0.7	-12.6
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	9	-13.6	0.6	-13

Now the SRS weighs each game equally. This means that we can come up with a projected game score for each week, and see how close the actual result came to meeting our projection. For this iteration of the SRS, I am not using any caps or floors, and am giving the home team three points.

Miami has an SRS rating of -4.2, while the Titans are down at -7.6. Of course, Miami’s SRS score is down in large part because of the loss to Tennessee, but that won’t matter here, since each team would be equally affected by an outlier. At home against Tennessee, we would expect Miami to win by 6.4 points; they lost by 34 points. Therefore, the Dolphins underachieved by 40.4 points. As it turns out, that was the most unexpectedly bad performance of the season. Because of the closed nature of the system, Tennessee overachieved expectations by 40.4 points, which was also the most unexpectedly good performance this year.

The table below lists each game of the year, from “most unexpectedly good” to “most unexpectedly bad.” Here’s what each column is:

MOV = points differential, with 3 points given to the home team
SOS = SRS rating of the opponent
SRS = Sum of the MOV and SOS cells; the single game SRS score
TMSRS = The team’s SRS score for the season
EXP SRS = The expected SRS for the game, calculated by taking the TMSRS and subtracting the SOS (and giving 3 points to the home team)
DIFF = The difference between the EXP SRS and the points differential (not the MOV, so as to not double count home field)

Date	Tm	H/R	Opp	PF	PA	MOV	SOS	SRS	TM SRS	EXP SRS	DIFF
11-11-2012	Tennessee Titans	@	Miami Dolphins	37	3	37	-4.2	32.8	-7.6	-6.4	40.4
10-14-2012	New York Giants	@	San Francisco 49ers	26	3	26	9.7	35.7	5.1	-7.5	30.5
10-28-2012	New England Patriots	@	St. Louis Rams	45	7	41	-1.7	39.3	10.4	9.1	28.9
09-20-2012	New York Giants	@	Carolina Panthers	36	7	32	-1.5	30.5	5.1	3.6	25.4
10-14-2012	Green Bay Packers	@	Houston Texans	42	24	21	11.3	32.3	7.1	-7.2	25.2
10-28-2012	Miami Dolphins	@	New York Jets	30	9	24	-4.3	19.7	-4.2	-2.9	23.9
09-30-2012	San Francisco 49ers	@	New York Jets	34	0	37	-4.3	32.7	9.7	10.9	23.1
10-07-2012	San Francisco 49ers		Buffalo Bills	45	3	39	-6.2	32.8	9.7	18.9	23.1
11-11-2012	Cincinnati Bengals		New York Giants	31	13	15	5.1	20.1	-2.8	-4.9	22.9
10-14-2012	New York Jets		Indianapolis Colts	35	9	23	-5.4	17.6	-4.3	4.1	21.9
09-10-2012	Baltimore Ravens		Cincinnati Bengals	44	13	28	-2.8	25.2	3.8	9.6	21.4
09-23-2012	Atlanta Falcons	@	San Diego Chargers	27	3	27	-1.1	25.9	6.1	4.2	19.8
10-21-2012	Houston Texans		Baltimore Ravens	43	13	27	3.8	30.8	11.3	10.5	19.5
10-25-2012	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Minnesota Vikings	36	17	22	0.1	22.1	3.1	0.1	18.9
09-16-2012	San Diego Chargers		Tennessee Titans	38	10	25	-7.6	17.4	-1.1	9.5	18.5
09-23-2012	Kansas City Chiefs	@	New Orleans Saints	27	24	6	-0.6	5.4	-12.6	-15	18
09-23-2012	Minnesota Vikings		San Francisco 49ers	24	13	8	9.7	17.7	0.1	-6.6	17.6
11-11-2012	Baltimore Ravens		Oakland Raiders	55	20	32	-10.7	21.3	3.8	17.5	17.5
09-16-2012	Arizona Cardinals	@	New England Patriots	20	18	5	10.4	15.4	-2	-15.3	17.3
10-07-2012	Chicago Bears	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	41	3	41	-13	28	10.9	20.9	17.1
10-14-2012	Oakland Raiders	@	Atlanta Falcons	20	23	0	6.1	6.1	-10.7	-19.9	16.9
09-23-2012	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Indianapolis Colts	22	17	8	-5.4	2.6	-13	-10.6	15.6
11-04-2012	Chicago Bears	@	Tennessee Titans	51	20	34	-7.6	26.4	10.9	15.5	15.5
09-09-2012	New York Jets		Buffalo Bills	48	28	17	-6.2	10.8	-4.3	5	15
10-21-2012	New York Jets	@	New England Patriots	26	29	0	10.4	10.4	-4.3	-17.6	14.6
11-11-2012	St. Louis Rams	@	San Francisco 49ers	24	24	3	9.7	12.7	-1.7	-14.4	14.4
10-28-2012	Carolina Panthers	@	Chicago Bears	22	23	2	10.9	12.9	-1.5	-15.4	14.4
10-28-2012	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Green Bay Packers	15	24	-6	7.1	1.1	-13	-23.1	14.1
09-16-2012	Seattle Seahawks		Dallas Cowboys	27	7	17	2.8	19.8	5.8	6	14
09-13-2012	Green Bay Packers		Chicago Bears	23	10	10	10.9	20.9	7.1	-0.8	13.8
10-21-2012	New Orleans Saints	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	35	28	10	3.1	13.1	-0.6	-6.8	13.8
11-11-2012	Buffalo Bills	@	New England Patriots	31	37	-3	10.4	7.4	-6.2	-19.6	13.6
09-23-2012	Arizona Cardinals		Philadelphia Eagles	27	6	18	-6.5	11.5	-2	7.6	13.4
09-09-2012	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Minnesota Vikings	23	26	0	0.1	0.1	-13	-16	13
09-23-2012	Buffalo Bills	@	Cleveland Browns	24	14	13	-6.3	6.7	-6.2	-2.9	12.9
11-12-2012	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	13	16	0	0.4	0.4	-12.6	-15.9	12.9
11-11-2012	Denver Broncos	@	Carolina Panthers	36	14	25	-1.5	23.5	10.7	9.2	12.8
10-07-2012	Indianapolis Colts		Green Bay Packers	30	27	0	7.1	7.1	-5.4	-9.5	12.5
10-07-2012	Minnesota Vikings		Tennessee Titans	30	7	20	-7.6	12.4	0.1	10.6	12.4
10-29-2012	San Francisco 49ers	@	Arizona Cardinals	24	3	24	-2	22	9.7	8.6	12.4
11-08-2012	Indianapolis Colts	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	27	10	20	-13	7	-5.4	4.6	12.4
09-05-2012	Dallas Cowboys	@	New York Giants	24	17	10	5.1	15.1	2.8	-5.4	12.4
09-16-2012	Miami Dolphins		Oakland Raiders	35	13	19	-10.7	8.3	-4.2	9.6	12.4
11-04-2012	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	New York Giants	24	20	7	5.1	12.1	0.4	-7.8	11.8
09-23-2012	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Washington Redskins	38	31	10	-1.2	8.8	-2.8	-4.6	11.6
09-09-2012	Washington Redskins	@	New Orleans Saints	40	32	11	-0.6	10.4	-1.2	-3.6	11.6
11-04-2012	Carolina Panthers	@	Washington Redskins	21	13	11	-1.2	9.8	-1.5	-3.3	11.3
10-28-2012	Oakland Raiders	@	Kansas City Chiefs	26	16	13	-12.6	0.4	-10.7	-1.2	11.2
09-23-2012	Oakland Raiders		Pittsburgh Steelers	34	31	0	0.4	0.4	-10.7	-8.1	11.1
10-01-2012	Chicago Bears	@	Dallas Cowboys	34	18	19	2.8	21.8	10.9	5.1	10.9
10-04-2012	St. Louis Rams		Arizona Cardinals	17	3	11	-2	9	-1.7	3.2	10.8
09-30-2012	Philadelphia Eagles		New York Giants	19	17	-1	5.1	4.1	-6.5	-8.7	10.7
10-14-2012	Cleveland Browns		Cincinnati Bengals	34	24	7	-2.8	4.2	-6.3	-0.6	10.6
09-30-2012	St. Louis Rams		Seattle Seahawks	19	13	3	5.8	8.8	-1.7	-4.5	10.5
10-28-2012	Pittsburgh Steelers		Washington Redskins	27	12	12	-1.2	10.8	0.4	4.5	10.5
10-07-2012	Kansas City Chiefs		Baltimore Ravens	6	9	-6	3.8	-2.2	-12.6	-13.4	10.4
09-30-2012	New England Patriots	@	Buffalo Bills	52	28	27	-6.2	20.8	10.4	13.6	10.4
10-14-2012	Washington Redskins		Minnesota Vikings	38	26	9	0.1	9.1	-1.2	1.7	10.3
10-14-2012	Buffalo Bills	@	Arizona Cardinals	19	16	6	-2	4	-6.2	-7.3	10.3
09-30-2012	Minnesota Vikings	@	Detroit Lions	20	13	10	0.1	10.1	0.1	-3	10
09-30-2012	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	27	10	20	-13	7	-2.8	7.2	9.8
09-30-2012	New Orleans Saints	@	Green Bay Packers	27	28	2	7.1	9.1	-0.6	-10.7	9.7
11-11-2012	Houston Texans	@	Chicago Bears	13	6	10	10.9	20.9	11.3	-2.6	9.6
09-16-2012	Pittsburgh Steelers		New York Jets	27	10	14	-4.3	9.7	0.4	7.6	9.4
10-14-2012	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Kansas City Chiefs	38	10	25	-12.6	12.4	3.1	18.7	9.3
09-30-2012	Washington Redskins	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24	22	5	3.1	8.1	-1.2	-7.3	9.3
09-09-2012	Arizona Cardinals		Seattle Seahawks	20	16	1	5.8	6.8	-2	-4.7	8.7
11-11-2012	Dallas Cowboys	@	Philadelphia Eagles	38	23	18	-6.5	11.5	2.8	6.3	8.7
09-30-2012	Carolina Panthers	@	Atlanta Falcons	28	30	1	6.1	7.1	-1.5	-10.6	8.6
09-16-2012	Buffalo Bills		Kansas City Chiefs	35	17	15	-12.6	2.4	-6.2	9.4	8.6
11-04-2012	Buffalo Bills	@	Houston Texans	9	21	-9	11.3	2.3	-6.2	-20.5	8.5
09-23-2012	Houston Texans	@	Denver Broncos	31	25	9	10.7	19.7	11.3	-2.5	8.5
09-30-2012	San Diego Chargers	@	Kansas City Chiefs	37	20	20	-12.6	7.4	-1.1	8.5	8.5
10-07-2012	Miami Dolphins	@	Cincinnati Bengals	17	13	7	-2.8	4.2	-4.2	-4.4	8.4
09-09-2012	San Francisco 49ers	@	Green Bay Packers	30	22	11	7.1	18.1	9.7	-0.4	8.4
09-16-2012	Philadelphia Eagles		Baltimore Ravens	24	23	-2	3.8	1.8	-6.5	-7.3	8.3
11-11-2012	Seattle Seahawks		New York Jets	28	7	18	-4.3	13.7	5.8	13	8
10-11-2012	Tennessee Titans		Pittsburgh Steelers	26	23	0	0.4	0.4	-7.6	-4.9	7.9
10-07-2012	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	14	16	1	0.4	1.4	-6.5	-9.9	7.9
10-22-2012	Detroit Lions	@	Chicago Bears	7	13	-3	10.9	7.9	0.1	-13.8	7.8
11-11-2012	New Orleans Saints		Atlanta Falcons	31	27	1	6.1	7.1	-0.6	-3.8	7.8
09-23-2012	Tennessee Titans		Detroit Lions	44	41	0	0.1	0.1	-7.6	-4.7	7.7
09-17-2012	Atlanta Falcons		Denver Broncos	27	21	3	10.7	13.7	6.1	-1.6	7.6
10-07-2012	New England Patriots		Denver Broncos	31	21	7	10.7	17.7	10.4	2.6	7.4
11-11-2012	Minnesota Vikings		Detroit Lions	34	24	7	0.1	7.1	0.1	3	7
10-21-2012	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Cincinnati Bengals	24	17	10	-2.8	7.2	0.4	0.1	6.9
11-04-2012	Detroit Lions	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	31	14	20	-13	7	0.1	10.1	6.9
10-28-2012	Indianapolis Colts	@	Tennessee Titans	19	13	9	-7.6	1.4	-5.4	-0.8	6.8
10-28-2012	Detroit Lions		Seattle Seahawks	28	24	1	5.8	6.8	0.1	-2.7	6.7
10-08-2012	New York Jets		Houston Texans	17	23	-9	11.3	2.3	-4.3	-12.5	6.5
09-30-2012	Denver Broncos		Oakland Raiders	37	6	28	-10.7	17.3	10.7	24.5	6.5
09-23-2012	New York Jets	@	Miami Dolphins	23	20	6	-4.2	1.8	-4.3	-3.1	6.1
09-09-2012	New England Patriots	@	Tennessee Titans	34	13	24	-7.6	16.4	10.4	14.9	6.1
09-27-2012	Cleveland Browns	@	Baltimore Ravens	16	23	-4	3.8	-0.2	-6.3	-13.1	6.1
11-05-2012	New Orleans Saints		Philadelphia Eagles	28	13	12	-6.5	5.5	-0.6	8.9	6.1
09-16-2012	Carolina Panthers		New Orleans Saints	35	27	5	-0.6	4.4	-1.5	2.2	5.8
10-28-2012	New York Giants	@	Dallas Cowboys	29	24	8	2.8	10.8	5.1	-0.6	5.6
10-28-2012	Denver Broncos		New Orleans Saints	34	14	17	-0.6	16.4	10.7	14.4	5.6
09-16-2012	Indianapolis Colts		Minnesota Vikings	23	20	0	0.1	0.1	-5.4	-2.4	5.4
10-21-2012	Washington Redskins	@	New York Giants	23	27	-1	5.1	4.1	-1.2	-9.3	5.3
10-21-2012	Tennessee Titans	@	Buffalo Bills	35	34	4	-6.2	-2.2	-7.6	-4.3	5.3
09-16-2012	Detroit Lions	@	San Francisco 49ers	19	27	-5	9.7	4.7	0.1	-12.6	4.6
09-23-2012	Baltimore Ravens		New England Patriots	31	30	-2	10.4	8.4	3.8	-3.6	4.6
09-09-2012	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Cleveland Browns	17	16	4	-6.3	-2.3	-6.5	-3.2	4.2
10-21-2012	Green Bay Packers	@	St. Louis Rams	30	20	13	-1.7	11.3	7.1	5.8	4.2
10-21-2012	Dallas Cowboys	@	Carolina Panthers	19	14	8	-1.5	6.5	2.8	1.3	3.7
10-07-2012	New Orleans Saints		San Diego Chargers	31	24	4	-1.1	2.9	-0.6	3.4	3.6
11-01-2012	San Diego Chargers		Kansas City Chiefs	31	13	15	-12.6	2.4	-1.1	14.5	3.5
09-23-2012	Dallas Cowboys		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	16	10	3	3.1	6.1	2.8	2.6	3.4
10-28-2012	Atlanta Falcons	@	Philadelphia Eagles	30	17	16	-6.5	9.5	6.1	9.7	3.3
10-28-2012	Cleveland Browns		San Diego Chargers	7	6	-2	-1.1	-3.1	-6.3	-2.3	3.3
11-04-2012	Baltimore Ravens	@	Cleveland Browns	25	15	13	-6.3	6.7	3.8	7.1	2.9
11-11-2012	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		San Diego Chargers	34	24	7	-1.1	5.9	3.1	7.2	2.8
10-07-2012	Atlanta Falcons	@	Washington Redskins	24	17	10	-1.2	8.8	6.1	4.3	2.7
10-14-2012	Seattle Seahawks		New England Patriots	24	23	-2	10.4	8.4	5.8	-1.6	2.6
11-04-2012	Cincinnati Bengals		Denver Broncos	23	31	-11	10.7	-0.3	-2.8	-10.5	2.5
10-14-2012	Miami Dolphins		St. Louis Rams	17	14	0	-1.7	-1.7	-4.2	0.6	2.4
10-21-2012	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Oakland Raiders	23	26	0	-10.7	-10.7	-13	-5.2	2.2
10-15-2012	Denver Broncos	@	San Diego Chargers	35	24	14	-1.1	12.9	10.7	8.8	2.2
09-30-2012	Houston Texans		Tennessee Titans	38	14	21	-7.6	13.4	11.3	21.8	2.2
09-30-2012	Miami Dolphins	@	Arizona Cardinals	21	24	0	-2	-2	-4.2	-5.2	2.2
09-16-2012	New York Giants		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	41	34	4	3.1	7.1	5.1	5	2
10-21-2012	Minnesota Vikings		Arizona Cardinals	21	14	4	-2	2	0.1	5	2
10-14-2012	Dallas Cowboys	@	Baltimore Ravens	29	31	1	3.8	4.8	2.8	-4	2
11-04-2012	Green Bay Packers		Arizona Cardinals	31	17	11	-2	9	7.1	12.1	1.9
09-09-2012	Carolina Panthers	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	16	-3	3.1	0.1	-1.5	-7.6	1.6
09-09-2012	Houston Texans		Miami Dolphins	30	10	17	-4.2	12.8	11.3	18.4	1.6
09-23-2012	Chicago Bears		St. Louis Rams	23	6	14	-1.7	12.3	10.9	15.6	1.4
09-09-2012	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Denver Broncos	19	31	-9	10.7	1.7	0.4	-13.4	1.4
09-10-2012	San Diego Chargers	@	Oakland Raiders	22	14	11	-10.7	0.3	-1.1	6.7	1.3
11-04-2012	Seattle Seahawks		Minnesota Vikings	30	20	7	0.1	7.1	5.8	8.7	1.3
09-16-2012	Jacksonville Jaguars		Houston Texans	7	27	-23	11.3	-11.7	-13	-21.2	1.2
11-04-2012	Indianapolis Colts		Miami Dolphins	23	20	0	-4.2	-4.2	-5.4	1.8	1.2
11-04-2012	Oakland Raiders		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	32	42	-13	3.1	-9.9	-10.7	-10.9	0.9
09-09-2012	St. Louis Rams	@	Detroit Lions	23	27	-1	0.1	-0.9	-1.7	-4.8	0.8
09-09-2012	Chicago Bears		Indianapolis Colts	41	21	17	-5.4	11.6	10.9	19.3	0.7
10-14-2012	Philadelphia Eagles		Detroit Lions	23	26	-6	0.1	-5.9	-6.5	-3.6	0.6
10-07-2012	Cleveland Browns	@	New York Giants	27	41	-11	5.1	-5.9	-6.3	-14.5	0.5
09-16-2012	St. Louis Rams		Washington Redskins	31	28	0	-1.2	-1.2	-1.7	2.5	0.5
11-04-2012	Dallas Cowboys	@	Atlanta Falcons	13	19	-3	6.1	3.1	2.8	-6.4	0.4
09-16-2012	Cincinnati Bengals		Cleveland Browns	34	27	4	-6.3	-2.3	-2.8	6.6	0.4
09-09-2012	Atlanta Falcons	@	Kansas City Chiefs	40	24	19	-12.6	6.4	6.1	15.7	0.3
09-24-2012	Seattle Seahawks		Green Bay Packers	14	12	-1	7.1	6.1	5.8	1.7	0.3
10-07-2012	Carolina Panthers		Seattle Seahawks	12	16	-7	5.8	-1.2	-1.5	-4.2	0.2
10-18-2012	San Francisco 49ers		Seattle Seahawks	13	6	4	5.8	9.8	9.7	6.9	0.1
10-21-2012	Cleveland Browns	@	Indianapolis Colts	13	17	-1	-5.4	-6.4	-6.3	-4	0
10-21-2012	Indianapolis Colts		Cleveland Browns	17	13	1	-6.3	-5.3	-5.4	4	0
11-11-2012	Miami Dolphins		Tennessee Titans	3	37	-37	-7.6	-44.6	-4.2	6.4	-40.4
10-14-2012	San Francisco 49ers		New York Giants	3	26	-26	5.1	-20.9	9.7	7.5	-30.5
10-28-2012	St. Louis Rams		New England Patriots	7	45	-41	10.4	-30.6	-1.7	-9.1	-28.9
09-20-2012	Carolina Panthers		New York Giants	7	36	-32	5.1	-26.9	-1.5	-3.6	-25.4
10-14-2012	Houston Texans		Green Bay Packers	24	42	-21	7.1	-13.9	11.3	7.2	-25.2
10-28-2012	New York Jets		Miami Dolphins	9	30	-24	-4.2	-28.2	-4.3	2.9	-23.9
10-07-2012	Buffalo Bills	@	San Francisco 49ers	3	45	-39	9.7	-29.3	-6.2	-18.9	-23.1
09-30-2012	New York Jets		San Francisco 49ers	0	34	-37	9.7	-27.3	-4.3	-10.9	-23.1
11-11-2012	New York Giants	@	Cincinnati Bengals	13	31	-15	-2.8	-17.8	5.1	4.9	-22.9
10-14-2012	Indianapolis Colts	@	New York Jets	9	35	-23	-4.3	-27.3	-5.4	-4.1	-21.9
09-10-2012	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Baltimore Ravens	13	44	-28	3.8	-24.2	-2.8	-9.6	-21.4
09-23-2012	San Diego Chargers		Atlanta Falcons	3	27	-27	6.1	-20.9	-1.1	-4.2	-19.8
10-21-2012	Baltimore Ravens	@	Houston Texans	13	43	-27	11.3	-15.7	3.8	-10.5	-19.5
10-25-2012	Minnesota Vikings		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17	36	-22	3.1	-18.9	0.1	-0.1	-18.9
09-16-2012	Tennessee Titans	@	San Diego Chargers	10	38	-25	-1.1	-26.1	-7.6	-9.5	-18.5
09-23-2012	New Orleans Saints		Kansas City Chiefs	24	27	-6	-12.6	-18.6	-0.6	15	-18
09-23-2012	San Francisco 49ers	@	Minnesota Vikings	13	24	-8	0.1	-7.9	9.7	6.6	-17.6
11-11-2012	Oakland Raiders	@	Baltimore Ravens	20	55	-32	3.8	-28.2	-10.7	-17.5	-17.5
09-16-2012	New England Patriots		Arizona Cardinals	18	20	-5	-2	-7	10.4	15.3	-17.3
10-07-2012	Jacksonville Jaguars		Chicago Bears	3	41	-41	10.9	-30.1	-13	-20.9	-17.1
10-14-2012	Atlanta Falcons		Oakland Raiders	23	20	0	-10.7	-10.7	6.1	19.9	-16.9
09-23-2012	Indianapolis Colts		Jacksonville Jaguars	17	22	-8	-13	-21	-5.4	10.6	-15.6
11-04-2012	Tennessee Titans		Chicago Bears	20	51	-34	10.9	-23.1	-7.6	-15.5	-15.5
09-09-2012	Buffalo Bills	@	New York Jets	28	48	-17	-4.3	-21.3	-6.2	-5	-15
10-21-2012	New England Patriots		New York Jets	29	26	0	-4.3	-4.3	10.4	17.6	-14.6
10-28-2012	Chicago Bears		Carolina Panthers	23	22	-2	-1.5	-3.5	10.9	15.4	-14.4
11-11-2012	San Francisco 49ers		St. Louis Rams	24	24	-3	-1.7	-4.7	9.7	14.4	-14.4
10-28-2012	Green Bay Packers		Jacksonville Jaguars	24	15	6	-13	-7	7.1	23.1	-14.1
09-16-2012	Dallas Cowboys	@	Seattle Seahawks	7	27	-17	5.8	-11.2	2.8	-6	-14
10-21-2012	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		New Orleans Saints	28	35	-10	-0.6	-10.6	3.1	6.8	-13.8
09-13-2012	Chicago Bears	@	Green Bay Packers	10	23	-10	7.1	-2.9	10.9	0.8	-13.8
11-11-2012	New England Patriots		Buffalo Bills	37	31	3	-6.2	-3.2	10.4	19.6	-13.6
09-23-2012	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Arizona Cardinals	6	27	-18	-2	-20	-6.5	-7.6	-13.4
09-09-2012	Minnesota Vikings		Jacksonville Jaguars	26	23	0	-13	-13	0.1	16	-13
11-12-2012	Pittsburgh Steelers		Kansas City Chiefs	16	13	0	-12.6	-12.6	0.4	15.9	-12.9
09-23-2012	Cleveland Browns		Buffalo Bills	14	24	-13	-6.2	-19.2	-6.3	2.9	-12.9
11-11-2012	Carolina Panthers		Denver Broncos	14	36	-25	10.7	-14.3	-1.5	-9.2	-12.8
10-07-2012	Green Bay Packers	@	Indianapolis Colts	27	30	0	-5.4	-5.4	7.1	9.5	-12.5
09-16-2012	Oakland Raiders	@	Miami Dolphins	13	35	-19	-4.2	-23.2	-10.7	-9.6	-12.4
10-07-2012	Tennessee Titans	@	Minnesota Vikings	7	30	-20	0.1	-19.9	-7.6	-10.6	-12.4
10-29-2012	Arizona Cardinals		San Francisco 49ers	3	24	-24	9.7	-14.3	-2	-8.6	-12.4
11-08-2012	Jacksonville Jaguars		Indianapolis Colts	10	27	-20	-5.4	-25.4	-13	-4.6	-12.4
09-05-2012	New York Giants		Dallas Cowboys	17	24	-10	2.8	-7.2	5.1	5.4	-12.4
11-04-2012	New York Giants		Pittsburgh Steelers	20	24	-7	0.4	-6.6	5.1	7.8	-11.8
09-09-2012	New Orleans Saints		Washington Redskins	32	40	-11	-1.2	-12.2	-0.6	3.6	-11.6
09-23-2012	Washington Redskins		Cincinnati Bengals	31	38	-10	-2.8	-12.8	-1.2	4.6	-11.6
11-04-2012	Washington Redskins		Carolina Panthers	13	21	-11	-1.5	-12.5	-1.2	3.3	-11.3
10-28-2012	Kansas City Chiefs		Oakland Raiders	16	26	-13	-10.7	-23.7	-12.6	1.2	-11.2
09-23-2012	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Oakland Raiders	31	34	0	-10.7	-10.7	0.4	8.1	-11.1
10-01-2012	Dallas Cowboys		Chicago Bears	18	34	-19	10.9	-8.1	2.8	-5.1	-10.9
10-04-2012	Arizona Cardinals	@	St. Louis Rams	3	17	-11	-1.7	-12.7	-2	-3.2	-10.8
09-30-2012	New York Giants	@	Philadelphia Eagles	17	19	1	-6.5	-5.5	5.1	8.7	-10.7
10-14-2012	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Cleveland Browns	24	34	-7	-6.3	-13.3	-2.8	0.6	-10.6
09-30-2012	Seattle Seahawks	@	St. Louis Rams	13	19	-3	-1.7	-4.7	5.8	4.5	-10.5
10-28-2012	Washington Redskins	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	12	27	-12	0.4	-11.6	-1.2	-4.5	-10.5
09-30-2012	Buffalo Bills		New England Patriots	28	52	-27	10.4	-16.6	-6.2	-13.6	-10.4
10-07-2012	Baltimore Ravens	@	Kansas City Chiefs	9	6	6	-12.6	-6.6	3.8	13.4	-10.4
10-14-2012	Minnesota Vikings	@	Washington Redskins	26	38	-9	-1.2	-10.2	0.1	-1.7	-10.3
10-14-2012	Arizona Cardinals		Buffalo Bills	16	19	-6	-6.2	-12.2	-2	7.3	-10.3
09-30-2012	Detroit Lions		Minnesota Vikings	13	20	-10	0.1	-9.9	0.1	3	-10
09-30-2012	Jacksonville Jaguars		Cincinnati Bengals	10	27	-20	-2.8	-22.8	-13	-7.2	-9.8
09-30-2012	Green Bay Packers		New Orleans Saints	28	27	-2	-0.6	-2.6	7.1	10.7	-9.7
11-11-2012	Chicago Bears		Houston Texans	6	13	-10	11.3	1.3	10.9	2.6	-9.6
09-16-2012	New York Jets	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	27	-14	0.4	-13.6	-4.3	-7.6	-9.4
10-14-2012	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	38	-25	3.1	-21.9	-12.6	-18.7	-9.3
09-30-2012	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Washington Redskins	22	24	-5	-1.2	-6.2	3.1	7.3	-9.3
09-09-2012	Seattle Seahawks	@	Arizona Cardinals	16	20	-1	-2	-3	5.8	4.7	-8.7
11-11-2012	Philadelphia Eagles		Dallas Cowboys	23	38	-18	2.8	-15.2	-6.5	-6.3	-8.7
09-30-2012	Atlanta Falcons		Carolina Panthers	30	28	-1	-1.5	-2.5	6.1	10.6	-8.6
09-16-2012	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Buffalo Bills	17	35	-15	-6.2	-21.2	-12.6	-9.4	-8.6
09-30-2012	Kansas City Chiefs		San Diego Chargers	20	37	-20	-1.1	-21.1	-12.6	-8.5	-8.5
11-04-2012	Houston Texans		Buffalo Bills	21	9	9	-6.2	2.8	11.3	20.5	-8.5
09-23-2012	Denver Broncos		Houston Texans	25	31	-9	11.3	2.3	10.7	2.5	-8.5
09-09-2012	Green Bay Packers		San Francisco 49ers	22	30	-11	9.7	-1.3	7.1	0.4	-8.4
10-07-2012	Cincinnati Bengals		Miami Dolphins	13	17	-7	-4.2	-11.2	-2.8	4.4	-8.4
09-16-2012	Baltimore Ravens	@	Philadelphia Eagles	23	24	2	-6.5	-4.5	3.8	7.3	-8.3
11-11-2012	New York Jets	@	Seattle Seahawks	7	28	-18	5.8	-12.2	-4.3	-13	-8
10-11-2012	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Tennessee Titans	23	26	0	-7.6	-7.6	0.4	4.9	-7.9
10-07-2012	Pittsburgh Steelers		Philadelphia Eagles	16	14	-1	-6.5	-7.5	0.4	9.9	-7.9
11-11-2012	Atlanta Falcons	@	New Orleans Saints	27	31	-1	-0.6	-1.6	6.1	3.8	-7.8
10-22-2012	Chicago Bears		Detroit Lions	13	7	3	0.1	3.1	10.9	13.8	-7.8
09-23-2012	Detroit Lions	@	Tennessee Titans	41	44	0	-7.6	-7.6	0.1	4.7	-7.7
09-17-2012	Denver Broncos	@	Atlanta Falcons	21	27	-3	6.1	3.1	10.7	1.6	-7.6
10-07-2012	Denver Broncos	@	New England Patriots	21	31	-7	10.4	3.4	10.7	-2.6	-7.4
11-11-2012	Detroit Lions	@	Minnesota Vikings	24	34	-7	0.1	-6.9	0.1	-3	-7
11-04-2012	Jacksonville Jaguars		Detroit Lions	14	31	-20	0.1	-19.9	-13	-10.1	-6.9
10-21-2012	Cincinnati Bengals		Pittsburgh Steelers	17	24	-10	0.4	-9.6	-2.8	-0.1	-6.9
10-28-2012	Tennessee Titans		Indianapolis Colts	13	19	-9	-5.4	-14.4	-7.6	0.8	-6.8
10-28-2012	Seattle Seahawks	@	Detroit Lions	24	28	-1	0.1	-0.9	5.8	2.7	-6.7
10-08-2012	Houston Texans	@	New York Jets	23	17	9	-4.3	4.7	11.3	12.5	-6.5
09-30-2012	Oakland Raiders	@	Denver Broncos	6	37	-28	10.7	-17.3	-10.7	-24.5	-6.5
09-27-2012	Baltimore Ravens		Cleveland Browns	23	16	4	-6.3	-2.3	3.8	13.1	-6.1
09-23-2012	Miami Dolphins		New York Jets	20	23	-6	-4.3	-10.3	-4.2	3.1	-6.1
11-05-2012	Philadelphia Eagles	@	New Orleans Saints	13	28	-12	-0.6	-12.6	-6.5	-8.9	-6.1
09-09-2012	Tennessee Titans		New England Patriots	13	34	-24	10.4	-13.6	-7.6	-14.9	-6.1
09-16-2012	New Orleans Saints	@	Carolina Panthers	27	35	-5	-1.5	-6.5	-0.6	-2.2	-5.8
10-28-2012	Dallas Cowboys		New York Giants	24	29	-8	5.1	-2.9	2.8	0.6	-5.6
10-28-2012	New Orleans Saints	@	Denver Broncos	14	34	-17	10.7	-6.3	-0.6	-14.4	-5.6
09-16-2012	Minnesota Vikings	@	Indianapolis Colts	20	23	0	-5.4	-5.4	0.1	2.4	-5.4
10-21-2012	New York Giants		Washington Redskins	27	23	1	-1.2	-0.2	5.1	9.3	-5.3
10-21-2012	Buffalo Bills		Tennessee Titans	34	35	-4	-7.6	-11.6	-6.2	4.3	-5.3
09-16-2012	San Francisco 49ers		Detroit Lions	27	19	5	0.1	5.1	9.7	12.6	-4.6
09-23-2012	New England Patriots	@	Baltimore Ravens	30	31	2	3.8	5.8	10.4	3.6	-4.6
10-21-2012	St. Louis Rams		Green Bay Packers	20	30	-13	7.1	-5.9	-1.7	-5.8	-4.2
09-09-2012	Cleveland Browns		Philadelphia Eagles	16	17	-4	-6.5	-10.5	-6.3	3.2	-4.2
10-21-2012	Carolina Panthers		Dallas Cowboys	14	19	-8	2.8	-5.2	-1.5	-1.3	-3.7
10-07-2012	San Diego Chargers	@	New Orleans Saints	24	31	-4	-0.6	-4.6	-1.1	-3.4	-3.6
11-01-2012	Kansas City Chiefs	@	San Diego Chargers	13	31	-15	-1.1	-16.1	-12.6	-14.5	-3.5
09-23-2012	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Dallas Cowboys	10	16	-3	2.8	-0.2	3.1	-2.6	-3.4
10-28-2012	San Diego Chargers	@	Cleveland Browns	6	7	2	-6.3	-4.3	-1.1	2.3	-3.3
10-28-2012	Philadelphia Eagles		Atlanta Falcons	17	30	-16	6.1	-9.9	-6.5	-9.7	-3.3
11-04-2012	Cleveland Browns		Baltimore Ravens	15	25	-13	3.8	-9.2	-6.3	-7.1	-2.9
11-11-2012	San Diego Chargers	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24	34	-7	3.1	-3.9	-1.1	-7.2	-2.8
10-07-2012	Washington Redskins		Atlanta Falcons	17	24	-10	6.1	-3.9	-1.2	-4.3	-2.7
10-14-2012	New England Patriots	@	Seattle Seahawks	23	24	2	5.8	7.8	10.4	1.6	-2.6
11-04-2012	Denver Broncos	@	Cincinnati Bengals	31	23	11	-2.8	8.2	10.7	10.5	-2.5
10-14-2012	St. Louis Rams	@	Miami Dolphins	14	17	0	-4.2	-4.2	-1.7	-0.6	-2.4
09-30-2012	Tennessee Titans	@	Houston Texans	14	38	-21	11.3	-9.7	-7.6	-21.8	-2.2
09-30-2012	Arizona Cardinals		Miami Dolphins	24	21	0	-4.2	-4.2	-2	5.2	-2.2
10-15-2012	San Diego Chargers		Denver Broncos	24	35	-14	10.7	-3.3	-1.1	-8.8	-2.2
10-21-2012	Oakland Raiders		Jacksonville Jaguars	26	23	0	-13	-13	-10.7	5.2	-2.2
10-21-2012	Arizona Cardinals	@	Minnesota Vikings	14	21	-4	0.1	-3.9	-2	-5	-2
10-14-2012	Baltimore Ravens		Dallas Cowboys	31	29	-1	2.8	1.8	3.8	4	-2
09-16-2012	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	New York Giants	34	41	-4	5.1	1.1	3.1	-5	-2
11-04-2012	Arizona Cardinals	@	Green Bay Packers	17	31	-11	7.1	-3.9	-2	-12.1	-1.9
09-09-2012	Miami Dolphins	@	Houston Texans	10	30	-17	11.3	-5.7	-4.2	-18.4	-1.6
09-09-2012	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Carolina Panthers	16	10	3	-1.5	1.5	3.1	7.6	-1.6
09-23-2012	St. Louis Rams	@	Chicago Bears	6	23	-14	10.9	-3.1	-1.7	-15.6	-1.4
09-09-2012	Denver Broncos		Pittsburgh Steelers	31	19	9	0.4	9.4	10.7	13.4	-1.4
11-04-2012	Minnesota Vikings	@	Seattle Seahawks	20	30	-7	5.8	-1.2	0.1	-8.7	-1.3
09-10-2012	Oakland Raiders		San Diego Chargers	14	22	-11	-1.1	-12.1	-10.7	-6.7	-1.3
11-04-2012	Miami Dolphins	@	Indianapolis Colts	20	23	0	-5.4	-5.4	-4.2	-1.8	-1.2
09-16-2012	Houston Texans	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	27	7	23	-13	10	11.3	21.2	-1.2
11-04-2012	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Oakland Raiders	42	32	13	-10.7	2.3	3.1	10.9	-0.9
09-09-2012	Detroit Lions		St. Louis Rams	27	23	1	-1.7	-0.7	0.1	4.8	-0.8
09-09-2012	Indianapolis Colts	@	Chicago Bears	21	41	-17	10.9	-6.1	-5.4	-19.3	-0.7
10-14-2012	Detroit Lions	@	Philadelphia Eagles	26	23	6	-6.5	-0.5	0.1	3.6	-0.6
09-16-2012	Washington Redskins	@	St. Louis Rams	28	31	0	-1.7	-1.7	-1.2	-2.5	-0.5
10-07-2012	New York Giants		Cleveland Browns	41	27	11	-6.3	4.7	5.1	14.5	-0.5
09-16-2012	Cleveland Browns	@	Cincinnati Bengals	27	34	-4	-2.8	-6.8	-6.3	-6.6	-0.4
11-04-2012	Atlanta Falcons		Dallas Cowboys	19	13	3	2.8	5.8	6.1	6.4	-0.4
09-24-2012	Green Bay Packers	@	Seattle Seahawks	12	14	1	5.8	6.8	7.1	-1.7	-0.3
09-09-2012	Kansas City Chiefs		Atlanta Falcons	24	40	-19	6.1	-12.9	-12.6	-15.7	-0.3
10-07-2012	Seattle Seahawks	@	Carolina Panthers	16	12	7	-1.5	5.5	5.8	4.2	-0.2
10-18-2012	Seattle Seahawks	@	San Francisco 49ers	6	13	-4	9.7	5.7	5.8	-6.9	-0.1

Of course, the Dolphins not only turned in the most unexpectedly bad game of the year, they also played simply the worst game of the year. They played like they were 45 points below average against the Titans.

[Edited to add: A few minutes after posting this, I realized that I shouldn’t count the London game as a home game for St. Louis. Oh well.]

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