Checkdowns: Updating Atlanta’s odds of going undefeated

by Chase Stuart on November 6, 2012

Sunday morning, I noted that the Falcons had a 2.4% chance of going undefeated and that the team most likely give them their first loss was the Dallas Cowboys. After Atlanta’s victory on Sunday night, they halfway to perfection. This is the first time in franchise history the Falcons have started off 8-0, although star tight end Tony Gonzalez once played on a 9-0 team and Matt Ryan went 8-0 in 2007 at Boston College. After the victory over the Cowboys, what is the current probability that Atlanta goes 16-0?

First, we need to calculate SRS standings. Neil gave us his Weighted SRS Ratings earlier today, but the table below shows the vanilla SRS ratings:

Rk	Team	G	MOV	SOS	SRS
1	San Francisco 49ers	8	10.8	1.1	11.8
2	Chicago Bears	8	14.5	-2.8	11.7
3	New England Patriots	8	12.3	-1.5	10.7
4	Houston Texans	8	11.8	-2.1	9.6
5	Denver Broncos	8	7.5	1.6	9.1
6	New York Giants	9	7.3	1	8.4
7	Atlanta Falcons	8	9.6	-2.3	7.4
8	Green Bay Packers	9	5.4	1.6	7
9	Seattle Seahawks	9	2.1	3.2	5.3
10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8	5.1	-1.8	3.3
11	Dallas Cowboys	8	-3.1	5.7	2.6
12	Pittsburgh Steelers	8	4.1	-2.1	2.1
13	Miami Dolphins	8	3.4	-2.3	1
14	Detroit Lions	8	1.3	-0.5	0.7
15	Baltimore Ravens	8	2.9	-2.2	0.7
16	Carolina Panthers	8	-3.9	4.5	0.6
17	Washington Redskins	9	-2.1	1.2	-0.9
18	Minnesota Vikings	9	0.4	-1.3	-0.9
19	Arizona Cardinals	9	-3.6	2.1	-1.5
20	New Orleans Saints	8	-1.4	-0.3	-1.7
21	San Diego Chargers	8	3.5	-5.3	-1.8
22	New York Jets	8	-4.8	2.6	-2.1
23	St. Louis Rams	8	-6.9	4.3	-2.6
24	Philadelphia Eagles	8	-6.3	1.1	-5.2
25	Cincinnati Bengals	8	-3.6	-1.9	-5.5
26	Indianapolis Colts	8	-4.8	-1.9	-6.6
27	Cleveland Browns	9	-5	-2.6	-7.6
28	Oakland Raiders	8	-7.3	-0.7	-7.9
29	Buffalo Bills	8	-7.8	-0.8	-8.5
30	Jacksonville Jaguars	8	-12.8	1	-11.7
31	Tennessee Titans	9	-14.3	1.9	-12.4
32	Kansas City Chiefs	8	-13.4	-1.3	-14.7

The Falcons rank 7th according to the SRS and are 7.4 points better than average. Using Neil’s win probability method and the SRS, we can come up with a projected point spread and the resulting win probability for Atlanta in each of their remaining eight games:

Wk	Opp	Atl SRS	Opp SRS	ProjSpread	Win%
10	@New Orleans Saints	7.4	-1.7	-6.0	66.8%
11	Arizona Cardinals	7.4	-1.5	-11.8	80.3%
12	@Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.4	3.1	-1.3	53.6%
13	New Orleans Saints	7.4	-1.7	-12.0	80.7%
14	@Carolina Panthers	7.4	0.6	-3.7	60.6%
15	New York Giants	7.4	8.4	-2.0	55.7%
16	@Detroit Lions	7.4	0.7	-3.6	60.3%
17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.4	3.3	-7.0	69.4%
	Undefeated				3.3%

So which team is now most likely to end the Falcons’ bid for a perfect season? Again, it’s the next team on their schedule:

Wk	Opp	Atl SRS	Opp SRS	Diff	Win%	First?
10	@New Orleans Saints	7.4	-1.7	6	66.8%	33.2%
11	Arizona Cardinals	7.4	-1.5	11.8	80.3%	13.2%
12	@Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.4	3.1	1.3	53.6%	24.9%
13	New Orleans Saints	7.4	-1.7	12	80.7%	5.5%
14	@Carolina Panthers	7.4	0.6	3.7	60.6%	9.1%
15	New York Giants	7.4	8.4	2	55.7%	6.2%
16	@Detroit Lions	7.4	0.7	3.6	60.3%	3.1%
17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.4	3.3	7	69.4%	1.4%
	Total					96.7%

The Falcons have just a 3.3% chance of going undefeated, and there’s a 38.7% chance that the Saints are the team to give Atlanta their first loss. If Atlanta can make it past the Giants, at that point, Atlanta will be more likely than not to have a perfect season. If you like a different metric, Football Outsiders says the Falcons have just a 1.1% chance of a 16-0 season.

Tagged as: Falcons

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