Here’s my weekly set of power ratings, according to a weighted version of the Simple Rating System:
| Rk | Team | W | L | Talent | PWAG | Off | Def | SRS | wpa_loc | wpa_veg | wpa_1st | wpa_2nd | wpa_3rd | wpa_4ot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears | 7 | 1 | 0.658 | 67.7% | 6.0 | -6.0 | 12.0 | 0.000 | 0.922 | 0.802 | -0.349 | 0.458 | 1.167 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 6 | 2 | 0.605 | 62.3% | 0.3 | -11.5 | 11.7 | 0.000 | 1.235 | 0.088 | 0.189 | 0.576 | -0.087 |
| 3 | New England Patriots | 5 | 3 | 0.553 | 66.7% | 9.6 | -1.0 | 10.7 | -0.067 | 1.408 | 0.712 | 0.304 | 0.368 | -1.724 |
| 4 | Houston Texans | 7 | 1 | 0.658 | 64.1% | 4.1 | -5.6 | 9.7 | 0.135 | 1.648 | 0.074 | 0.780 | 0.254 | 0.110 |
| 5 | Denver Broncos | 5 | 3 | 0.553 | 50.1% | 6.0 | -3.3 | 9.3 | 0.000 | 0.213 | -0.398 | -0.604 | 0.208 | 1.581 |
| 6 | New York Giants | 6 | 3 | 0.575 | 60.4% | 7.8 | -0.6 | 8.4 | 0.067 | 0.528 | 0.252 | 0.450 | -0.207 | 0.410 |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 6 | 3 | 0.575 | 66.0% | 6.6 | -0.6 | 7.2 | 0.067 | 1.431 | 0.756 | 0.011 | -0.463 | -0.302 |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | 8 | 0 | 0.711 | 75.4% | 3.8 | -3.2 | 7.1 | 0.000 | 0.688 | 0.735 | 0.484 | 0.418 | 1.675 |
| 9 | Seattle Seahawks | 5 | 4 | 0.525 | 50.1% | -1.2 | -6.1 | 4.9 | -0.067 | -0.292 | 0.770 | -0.424 | 0.151 | 0.362 |
| 10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4 | 4 | 0.500 | 48.4% | 4.3 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 0.000 | -0.554 | 0.831 | -0.220 | 1.095 | -1.153 |
| 11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 3 | 0.553 | 63.6% | -1.8 | -4.0 | 2.2 | -0.135 | 0.625 | 0.248 | 0.246 | 0.007 | 0.010 |
| 12 | Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 5 | 0.447 | 42.7% | -1.5 | -3.6 | 2.1 | -0.135 | 0.160 | -0.322 | -0.575 | 0.531 | -0.658 |
| 13 | Carolina Panthers | 2 | 6 | 0.395 | 31.6% | -2.6 | -3.8 | 1.2 | 0.000 | -0.439 | -0.766 | 0.803 | 0.153 | -1.751 |
| 14 | Miami Dolphins | 4 | 4 | 0.500 | 46.8% | -2.4 | -3.4 | 1.0 | -0.135 | -0.371 | 0.158 | 1.201 | 0.945 | -1.799 |
| 15 | Detroit Lions | 4 | 4 | 0.500 | 49.6% | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | -0.135 | 0.335 | -0.426 | -0.728 | -0.481 | 1.435 |
| 16 | Baltimore Ravens | 6 | 2 | 0.605 | 68.0% | 1.4 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 0.000 | 0.678 | -0.117 | 0.429 | -0.037 | 1.047 |
| 17 | New Orleans Saints | 3 | 5 | 0.447 | 53.8% | 4.4 | 5.3 | -0.9 | 0.000 | 0.425 | -0.152 | -0.350 | -0.078 | -0.846 |
| 18 | Minnesota Vikings | 5 | 4 | 0.525 | 44.9% | -0.1 | 0.9 | -1.1 | 0.067 | 0.238 | 0.301 | -0.344 | -0.283 | 0.520 |
| 19 | Washington Redskins | 3 | 6 | 0.425 | 37.7% | 1.8 | 3.0 | -1.2 | -0.067 | -0.410 | -0.221 | 0.328 | 1.173 | -2.303 |
| 20 | New York Jets | 3 | 5 | 0.447 | 48.7% | 0.1 | 1.8 | -1.7 | 0.135 | -0.642 | -0.396 | -0.278 | -0.515 | 0.695 |
| 21 | San Diego Chargers | 4 | 4 | 0.500 | 51.2% | -3.3 | -1.4 | -1.9 | 0.000 | 0.538 | 0.639 | 0.274 | 0.319 | -1.771 |
| 22 | Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 5 | 0.475 | 44.0% | -5.7 | -3.2 | -2.5 | 0.067 | -0.935 | -0.356 | -0.125 | -0.356 | 1.205 |
| 23 | St Louis Rams | 3 | 5 | 0.447 | 38.0% | -4.2 | -1.4 | -2.8 | 0.067 | -1.223 | -0.124 | 0.027 | -0.295 | 0.548 |
| 24 | Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 5 | 0.447 | 41.3% | 1.2 | 6.3 | -5.1 | 0.000 | -0.044 | 0.659 | 0.152 | -1.164 | -0.604 |
| 25 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 5 | 0.447 | 47.5% | -6.1 | -0.6 | -5.5 | 0.000 | 0.452 | -1.300 | -0.586 | 0.675 | -0.241 |
| 26 | Indianapolis Colts | 5 | 3 | 0.553 | 51.3% | -4.1 | 1.7 | -5.8 | 0.135 | -0.812 | 0.623 | -0.797 | 0.339 | 1.512 |
| 27 | Cleveland Browns | 2 | 7 | 0.375 | 31.5% | -6.8 | 0.4 | -7.2 | 0.067 | -1.406 | -0.514 | -0.701 | 0.163 | -0.109 |
| 28 | Oakland Raiders | 3 | 5 | 0.447 | 45.1% | -0.3 | 7.3 | -7.5 | 0.000 | -0.298 | -0.194 | 0.182 | -1.958 | 1.268 |
| 29 | Buffalo Bills | 3 | 5 | 0.447 | 38.4% | -0.2 | 8.6 | -8.8 | -0.135 | -0.475 | 0.191 | 0.115 | 0.035 | -0.731 |
| 30 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 7 | 0.342 | 32.8% | -9.1 | 2.6 | -11.7 | 0.000 | -1.202 | -0.242 | -0.449 | -0.187 | -0.921 |
| 31 | Tennessee Titans | 3 | 6 | 0.425 | 41.6% | -2.0 | 10.2 | -12.1 | 0.067 | -1.401 | -0.979 | 0.688 | -0.705 | 0.830 |
| 32 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1 | 7 | 0.342 | 36.9% | -8.8 | 6.3 | -15.0 | 0.000 | -1.021 | -1.332 | -0.132 | -1.140 | 0.626 |
KEY:
Talent – Regressed WPct talent for 2012; Talent = (W + 5.5) / (G + 11)
PWAG – Probability of Winning Any Game
Off – Offensive SRS (positive = better)
Def – Defensive SRS (negative = better)
SRS – Simple Rating System (Off + Def)
wpa_loc – Win Probability Added from location of games
wpa_veg – Win Probability Added from Vegas lines
wpa_1st – Win Probability Added in 1st quarter
wpa_2nd – Win Probability Added in 2nd quarter
wpa_3rd – Win Probability Added in 3rd quarter
wpa_4ot – Win Probability Added in 4th qtr/overtime