Checkdowns: Weighted NFL SRS Ratings (through Sunday 10/14/12)

by Neil Paine on October 15, 2012

Here’s a quick Monday data dump… I ran the Simple Rating System (for offense and defense) on this year’s NFL results, but instead of weighing each game equally, I used Wayne Winston’s method of giving more weight to recent outcomes. Winston’s system is simply to give each game a weight of:

λ ^ (weeks ago)

In the NFL’s case, a λ of 0.95 works best for predicting future outcomes. The games from yesterday were (6 – week 6) = 0 weeks ago, so they get a weight of .95 ^ 0, or 1.00. Last week’s games were (6 – week 5) = 1 week ago, and get a weight of .95 ^ 1 = 0.95; the opening-week games were (6 – week 1) = 5 weeks ago, and get a weight of .95 ^ 5 = 0.77. See how it works?

Using this weighted form of SRS, here are the rankings going into tonight’s game (NOTE: For defenses, negative SRS numbers are better):

Search:

Rk	Team	Gms	W	L	Off	Def	SRS	wpa_loc	wpa_vegas	wpa_1st	wpa_2nd	wpa_3rd	wpa_4th/ot
1	Chicago Bears	5	4	1	7.6	-7.6	15.2	-0.07	0.48	0.13	0.02	0.73	0.22
2	New York Giants	6	4	2	9.8	-3.0	12.8	0.00	0.26	0.06	0.21	0.05	0.43
3	San Francisco 49ers	6	4	2	0.5	-10.4	10.9	0.00	0.80	-0.04	0.21	0.30	-0.28
4	New England Patriots	6	3	3	9.0	0.4	8.6	-0.14	1.00	0.62	0.00	0.27	-1.75
5	Green Bay Packers	6	3	3	4.9	-2.5	7.5	0.00	0.67	0.44	0.06	-0.64	-0.53
6	Seattle Seahawks	6	4	2	-2.0	-8.7	6.6	0.00	-0.20	0.68	-0.74	0.19	1.07
7	Houston Texans	6	5	1	4.6	-1.2	5.8	0.00	1.34	-0.19	0.76	0.12	-0.02
8	Atlanta Falcons	6	6	0	2.3	-3.2	5.4	0.00	0.61	0.52	0.20	0.41	1.25
9	Denver Broncos	5	2	3	2.5	-2.2	4.7	0.07	-0.13	-0.34	-0.63	0.12	0.41
10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	2	3	-0.5	-4.5	4.0	0.07	-0.42	0.35	0.20	0.36	-1.06
11	St Louis Rams	6	3	3	-2.8	-6.7	3.9	0.00	-0.77	0.02	0.27	-0.10	0.58
12	Dallas Cowboys	5	2	3	1.4	-2.3	3.6	-0.07	0.23	-0.21	-0.18	-0.40	0.13
13	Baltimore Ravens	6	5	1	1.4	-2.1	3.5	0.14	0.65	-0.31	0.76	0.06	0.70
14	Arizona Cardinals	6	4	2	-3.8	-5.7	1.9	0.14	-0.36	0.08	0.10	-0.19	1.22
15	Washington Redskins	6	3	3	7.3	5.5	1.8	0.00	-0.15	0.01	0.75	1.15	-1.76
16	Minnesota Vikings	6	4	2	-2.3	-3.1	0.8	0.00	-0.01	0.71	-0.36	-0.01	0.67
17	Miami Dolphins	6	3	3	-2.8	-2.5	-0.3	0.00	-0.59	-0.01	0.74	1.29	-1.43
18	Detroit Lions	5	2	3	5.2	7.2	-2.0	-0.07	0.20	-0.31	-0.82	-0.33	0.83
19	Carolina Panthers	5	1	4	-2.5	-0.4	-2.2	0.07	-0.12	-0.84	-0.05	0.24	-0.80
20	Philadelphia Eagles	6	3	3	-6.5	-3.8	-2.7	0.00	0.52	-0.68	-0.31	0.70	-0.24
21	New York Jets	6	3	3	-2.3	0.5	-2.8	0.14	-0.40	0.04	-0.10	-0.41	0.73
22	San Diego Chargers	5	3	2	-3.3	-0.5	-2.8	-0.07	0.27	0.45	0.02	0.36	-0.53
23	Cincinnati Bengals	6	3	3	0.3	4.9	-4.6	-0.14	0.17	0.61	0.43	-1.21	0.14
24	New Orleans Saints	5	1	4	3.2	7.8	-4.6	0.07	0.39	0.05	-0.95	-0.08	-0.99
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	2	3	-2.0	2.8	-4.8	-0.07	0.54	0.13	0.16	0.18	-1.44
26	Cleveland Browns	6	1	5	-2.1	3.0	-5.0	0.00	-1.15	-0.21	-0.74	0.08	0.02
27	Buffalo Bills	6	3	3	0.9	9.1	-8.3	-0.14	-0.31	0.32	0.02	-0.14	0.25
28	Indianapolis Colts	5	2	3	-1.8	6.8	-8.6	0.07	-0.62	0.25	-0.35	0.02	0.13
29	Oakland Raiders	5	1	4	-4.2	6.6	-10.8	-0.07	-0.39	-0.24	0.30	-1.55	0.45
30	Kansas City Chiefs	6	1	5	-7.1	6.5	-13.6	0.00	-0.76	-1.11	0.05	-1.00	0.82
31	Tennessee Titans	6	2	4	-4.9	8.9	-13.8	0.00	-1.15	-0.61	0.39	-0.35	0.72
32	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	1	4	-10.7	3.3	-14.0	0.07	-0.60	-0.38	-0.44	-0.21	0.06

Showing 1 to 32 of 32 entries

I also included a breakdown of each team’s quarter-by-quarter Win Probability Added (WPA), so you can see where each team’s wins above/below average thus far have come from.

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