In 2012, the New Orleans Saints led the Cowboys, 31-24, with 2:46 remaining and Dallas holding just two timeouts. Drew Brees completed a pass to Jimmy Graham for the first down, and the Saints looked to be in great shape.

New Orleans still had to run another play before the 2 minute warning, however, and with 2:04 remaining, the Saints ran Mark Ingram off left tackle.  He lost a yard and the two minute warning stopped the clock.  New Orleans ran again on second down, and the Cowboys called their second timeout.  On third and long, Brees completed a pass short of the sticks, and the Cowboys called their final timeout.  After a punt, the Cowboys took over with 1:29 remaining and no timeouts, and needing 64 yards for a touchdown.  That was all Tony Romo, always known for his great 4th quarter passing numbers, needed to tie the game: with 21 seconds remaining, he threw a game-tying touchdown pass, and the two teams went to overtime.

Why am I bringing that up today?  Because the Saints should have passed the ball with 2:04 remaining!  When you are that close to the two minute warning, coaches should view that as a free opportunity to pass the ball and pick up a first down.  This happened again on Sunday in an even more egregious situation.  The Ravens scored a touchdown with 2:01 remaining to cut the lead to 33-28.  Baltimore then brilliantly chose to do a drop kick onside kick; the Chiefs correctly responded with a fair catch, but that meant no time went off the clock.

So now Kansas City had the ball, with 2:01 remaining, and Baltimore down to just one timeout.  The Chiefs, I remind you, have Patrick Mahomes. There was no downside to passing here other than an interception, and well, that’s not something Mahomes is very likely to do. This is an obvious passing situation, and I said so immediately when the situation arose:

Alas, the Chiefs chose to run the ball twice, and then were forced to pass on 3rd and 9 (which, of course, Mahomes converted because well, he’s Mahomes). But that outcome doesn’t change the bad process.

Over the last 10 seasons, there have been 23 instances where:

• A team has had 1st or 2nd down with between 2:01 and 2:04 remaining
• Had the ball between their own 10 yard line and the opponent’s 40 yard line
• Was winning by between 1 and 8 points

These are situations where the offense is right up against the 2-minute warning, it is not 3rd down, field position is not particularly relevant, and they are trying to run out the clock in a close game. There have only been 22 of these over the last 10 years, with 14 runs and 8 passes. The 8 passes resulted in 2 first downs, 3 completions of 8 yards, 1 completion of 5 yards, and 2 incomplete passes. The 14 runs resulted in 1 first down, and mostly negative EPA-runs.

In other words, while this is a rare opportunity, this is an easy situation for smart teams to exploit. Offenses should pass, and defenses are expecting the run. Don’t mess this one up, coaches, or you could wind up in overtime: or worse!