Kessler in a losing effort.
In 2016, Browns rookie quarterback Cody Kessler had an uneven year. He went 0-8, but he ranked 24th in ANY/A out of the 31 quarterbacks who started at least 8 games and threw at least 150 passes. His stats weren’t great, but they weren’t 0-8 bad, either. In PFR’s Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Index, which attempts to adjust for era, Kessler ranked 15th out of the 43 rookie passers to meet the 8 start/150 attempt threshold. It was a pretty good rookie season that came with an 0-8 record.
And then there was Brock Osweiler. The Texans quarterback — now on the Browns — was dead last with a pitiful 4.34 ANY/A average last season. But for the second year in a row, Osweiler produced a winning record despite poor play; Houston went 8-6 with Osweiler under center.
I calculated the winning percentage and Relative ANY/A (i.e., ANY/A adjusted for era) for each passer since 1970 to meet the 8 start/150 attempt threshold. I then calculated the standard deviations above/below average each passer was in each category. Here are the results for 2016, and here’s how to read the Kessler line: he started 8 games for the Browns and had a 0.000 winning percentage. His Relative ANY/A was -0.34, so just a hair below league average. He was 2.53 standard deviations below average in winning percentage, but only 0.28 standard deviations below average in RANY/A. As a result, he was 2.24 standard deviations better in RANY/A than he was in winning percentage; that was the highest number on the list. Passers at the top had much better stats than wins; passers at the bottom (highlighted by Osweiler) had better wins than stats.
| Rk | Quarterback | Team | St | Win % | RANY/A | StDv Win% | StDv RANY/A | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Kessler | CLE | 8 | 0.000 | -0.34 | -2.53 | -0.28 | 2.24 |
| 2 | Colin Kaepernick | SFO | 11 | 0.091 | -0.29 | -2.07 | -0.25 | 1.82 |
| 3 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 16 | 0.688 | 2.81 | 0.95 | 2.37 | 1.42 |
| 4 | Drew Brees | NOR | 16 | 0.438 | 1.05 | -0.32 | 0.89 | 1.20 |
| 5 | Philip Rivers | SDG | 16 | 0.313 | 0.16 | -0.95 | 0.13 | 1.08 |
| 6 | Kirk Cousins | WAS | 16 | 0.531 | 1.23 | 0.16 | 1.04 | 0.88 |
| 7 | Blake Bortles | JAX | 16 | 0.188 | -0.98 | -1.58 | -0.83 | 0.75 |
| 8 | Andy Dalton | CIN | 16 | 0.406 | 0.31 | -0.47 | 0.26 | 0.73 |
| 9 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | 15 | 0.533 | 0.92 | 0.17 | 0.78 | 0.61 |
| 10 | Andrew Luck | IND | 15 | 0.533 | 0.62 | 0.17 | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| 11 | Sam Bradford | MIN | 15 | 0.467 | 0.19 | -0.17 | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| 12 | Aaron Rodgers | GNB | 16 | 0.625 | 1.02 | 0.63 | 0.86 | 0.23 |
| 13 | Carson Palmer | ARI | 15 | 0.433 | -0.19 | -0.34 | -0.16 | 0.18 |
| 14 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | NYJ | 11 | 0.273 | -1.23 | -1.15 | -1.04 | 0.11 |
| 15 | Tom Brady | NWE | 12 | 0.917 | 2.59 | 2.10 | 2.18 | 0.08 |
| 16 | Tyrod Taylor | BUF | 15 | 0.467 | -0.15 | -0.17 | -0.12 | 0.04 |
| 17 | Matthew Stafford | DET | 16 | 0.563 | 0.35 | 0.32 | 0.29 | -0.02 |
| 18 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 16 | 0.813 | 1.64 | 1.58 | 1.38 | -0.19 |
| 19 | Cam Newton | CAR | 14 | 0.429 | -0.76 | -0.36 | -0.64 | -0.28 |
| 20 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 14 | 0.714 | 0.77 | 1.08 | 0.65 | -0.44 |
| 21 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 16 | 0.656 | 0.34 | 0.79 | 0.29 | -0.50 |
| 22 | Trevor Siemian | DEN | 14 | 0.571 | -0.17 | 0.36 | -0.15 | -0.51 |
| 23 | Jameis Winston | TAM | 16 | 0.563 | -0.23 | 0.32 | -0.20 | -0.51 |
| 24 | Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 13 | 0.615 | 0.05 | 0.58 | 0.04 | -0.54 |
| 25 | Carson Wentz | PHI | 16 | 0.438 | -1.12 | -0.32 | -0.95 | -0.63 |
| 26 | Derek Carr | OAK | 15 | 0.800 | 0.98 | 1.52 | 0.83 | -0.69 |
| 27 | Case Keenum | LAR | 9 | 0.444 | -1.16 | -0.28 | -0.97 | -0.69 |
| 28 | Joe Flacco | BAL | 16 | 0.500 | -0.83 | 0.00 | -0.70 | -0.70 |
| 29 | Alex Smith | KAN | 15 | 0.733 | 0.17 | 1.18 | 0.14 | -1.04 |
| 30 | Eli Manning | NYG | 16 | 0.688 | -0.26 | 0.95 | -0.22 | -1.17 |
| 31 | Brock Osweiler | HOU | 14 | 0.571 | -1.88 | 0.36 | -1.58 | -1.94 |
As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.