Before today’s games, I figured we could take a second to look at the latest odds to win the BCS Championship:
| Team | Odds | Perc |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 7/5 | 29.2% |
| Oregon | 7/2 | 15.6% |
| West Virginia | 6/1 | 10% |
| South Carolina | 7/1 | 8.8% |
| Florida | 8/1 | 7.8% |
| USC | 8/1 | 7.8% |
| Kansas State | 15/1 | 4.4% |
| LSU | 18/1 | 3.7% |
| Notre Dame | 20/1 | 3.3% |
| Oklahoma | 50/1 | 1.4% |
| Georgia | 50/1 | 1.4% |
| Florida State | 50/1 | 1.4% |
| Louisville | 100/1 | 0.7% |
| Field (Any Other Team) | 100/1 | 0.7% |
| Texas | 100/1 | 0.7% |
| Clemson | 200/1 | 0.3% |
| Baylor | 300/1 | 0.2% |
| Mississippi State | 300/1 | 0.2% |
| Stanford | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| Tennessee | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| BYU | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| Oklahoma State | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| Arizona State | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| Michigan | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| Wisconsin | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| Michigan State | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| TCU | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| Texas A&M | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| Nebraska | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| Washington | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| North Carolina State | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| Iowa | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| Boise State | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| UCLA | 500/1 | 0.1% |
| Cincinnati | 500/1 | 0.1% |
Due to the vig, the actually percentages add up to 143%, so what I’ve done is multiplied each team’s odds by 70% to get a true sense of how likely they are to be crowned champion. So while Alabama’s odds of 7/5 might imply a 42% likelihood, we need to reduce that by the vig to get to the 29% number you see in the above table.
Alabama ranks as the top team in the SRS, but are they a good value at those odds? Alabama has a workable schedule, missing out on South Carolina, Florida and Georgia this year. Still, with three very difficult games — @LSU, the SECCG and the BCSNCG — I don’t think they offer any value at those odds.
To the surprise of no one, USC seems particularly overrated. The Trojans’ path to a BCS title is essentially: (a) beat Oregon; (b) win all other regular season games; (c) beat Oregon again in the P12CG; and (d) win the BCSNCG. Considering USC is ranked just 21st in the SRS, that seems like an impossibly tall order and way out of whack with their 8/1 odds.
Kansas State and West Virginia need to take similar paths to the title game, which is either an undefeated season or pray that an 11-1 record (without a championship game) is enough to vault them into the top two. West Virginia has already beaten Texas and Baylor, giving them an easier remaining conference schedule than Kansas State, which has defeated Oklahoma and Kansas. And the two teams face off in Morgantown next weekend. Considering the power of the West Virginia offense and the Wildcats’ penchant for playing close games, I think the relative odds of the two teams makes sense.
If you want to take a flier, Cincinnati seems like a much better bet than Louisville. Both teams could conceivably make runs at undefeated seasons, but the SRS prefers the Bearcats and the payout is five times greater. Cincinnati plays Fordham today and Toledo next week before finishing the remainder of their conference schedule (they already defeated Pittsburgh). The “big” game in the conference will be Cincinnati at Louisville; if the Bearcats win that game, only Rutgers seems likely to prevent the second perfect regular season in four years for the school. Of course, even at 12-0, there’s no guarantee that Cincinnati would sniff the BCSNCG.
LSU has a monster matchup with South Carolina tonight, but the Tigers would presumably make the BCSNCG if they defeated USC and Alabama (both at home) and won the SECCG (against Florida or USC). At 18-1, that’s not an awful flier, although the Tigers have looked worse each week for the past month.
Notre Dame still has games left with Stanford (#17 in the SRS), BYU (#34), Oklahoma (#9), and USC (#21), and likely needs to win all of those games to make the BCS title game. While the defense looks great, the quarterback situation remains a concern for the Fighting Irish. Still, at 20-1, Notre Dame might be one of the better bets out there.