My from-the-gut thoughts on this weekend’s games, which of course will also flavor my fantasy decisions.

Seattle/Carolina: It’s easy to get burned by being too cute. Sometimes, things are so obvious that we start to look for contrarian takes. To review: Seattle finished with the best record in the NFC, atop the 538 Elo Ratings, and first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. As the defending champions, the Seahawks obviously pass the eye test. The defense seems to be playing at 2013 levels, while the offense remains quietly effective.

Carolina is one of the worst playoff teams in NFL history. The Panthers won a terrible division with a 7-8-1 record; Carolina went two full months without winning a game. It is hard to come up with a larger mismatch, at least on paper. Seattle is favored by “only” 10.5 points, but that’s a reflection of Seattle not being a high-scoring team, not indecision about the Seahawks ability.

There have been 25 games in NFL playoff history where a team was favored by double digits and the over/under was also less than 45 (the over/under here is actually quite a bit lower, at 40). The favorites have gone 23-2 in those games, with both upsets being memorable: the 2001 Patriots winning in the AFC Championship Game against the Steelers, and the Jaguars shocking the Broncos in the second round of the ’96 playoffs. That is the sort of enormous upset it would be if Carolina could win, and let’s not forget that the Seahawks are also 24-2 at home over the last two years.

These home teams are 17-8 against the spread, too. I’ll be taking Seattle, and frankly, a blowout win is much more likely, in my opinion, than a Panthers win. The only question that remains: do you take Russell Wilson or Marshawn Lynch in your FanDuel lineups? Wilson has more paths to success, of course, and Lynch has struggled against Carolina over the past three years. On the other hand, a dominant home win typically means big numbers for Lynch. In tournaments, you probably don’t want both, but in 50/50s or cash games, I don’t have a huge issue with that strategy. The other must-play in FanDuel this week, due to salary, is the Seattle D. The Seahawks are $5200, and every other defense is at least $4500; given that Seattle is such a strong play this week, it’s hard to imagine it making sense to keep them out of a lineup.

Denver/Indianapolis: This game isn’t a mismatch on the order of Seattle/Carolina, only because what else could be? But the Colts are a team that does one thing well, and the Broncos not only arguably do that better than the Colts, but they do everything else really well, too. Denver’s Chris Harris had a marvelous season, while Aqib Talib is also a very good corner. Add in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, and I think the Colts have trouble scoring on Denver. On the other hand, Luck is easily the quarterback most likely to throw 50+ times this weekend, making him an attractive FanDuel option on quantity alone. A 400-yard, 3TD day — with two of those scores coming from behind in the 4th quarter — could be part of a 34-24 Broncos win.

I don’t know what to think of Peyton Manning, because no one does. But C.J. Anderson seems primed for a big day. The Colts run defense is not good, the Game Script should favor Anderson, and he’s also been doing damage through the air. He seems like a very high-floor player, because 80+ yards and a touchdown seem almost assured. On the other hand, given Manning’s lack of touchdowns in December, another 3-touchdown day out of Anderson is very possible.

New England/Baltimore and Dallas/Green Bay: I have wavered a bit on both of these games, after initially being very high on the home teams. After all, both home team are arguably better on both sides of the ball, are home, and are coming off of a bye. What’s not to like?

With Baltimore, the reasons are both tangible and not-so-tangible. The Patriots secondary does not match up well with the Ravens receivers. I think Steve Smith is likely guarded by Darrelle Revis, but who wants to bet against Smith in the playoffs? New England does not have anyone who can guard Torrey Smith or Jacoby Jones, who present the sort of speed that you simply can’t coach against. Jones has been quiet this year, but he’s been known to come up with one long bomb every couple of playoff games. Torrey Smith, in particular, is the real concern. If Brandon Browner is matched up on him, he will either get torched for multiple long plays, set a playoff record for pass interference penalties, or both. New England will have to commit safety help againt Smith, but that leaves open the door for Jones to get deep (and, given the success of Justin Forsett, the Patriots can’t be confident leaving just seven in the box). I would not advise it in cash games, but Jacoby Jones in a tournament is worth a shot at just $4500 (a 3/80/1 stat line would certainly justify that price).

Defensively, the Ravens still have Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata, while Elvis Dumervil can play the role of Ravens edge rusher from Patriots playoff games past. The Ravens defense doesn’t have a natural answer for Rob Gronkowski, but the J.J. Watt of tight ends hasn’t set the world on fire of late, and could even be asked to block more if the Ravens pass rush dominates. New England is the better team — and frankly, a Joe Flacco implosion and a Patriots blowout isn’t off the table — but this game could go in so many different ways that it’s tough for me to pick.

Ditto Dallas/Green Bay. My initial thought was not only do the Packers have the league’s best offense, but Green Bay’s defense is much better than whatever Rod Marinelli has concocted in Dallas. And frankly, that’s still true. I’ve been burned before betting against the Dallas defense, because it still makes no sense that they are any good. If there’s a team that could make a smoke-and-mirrors defense look bad, it’s Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. But given the Cowboys strong play all year, a 7-point spread is just a litle too rich. I like all the offensive players in this game for fantasy purposes, as I don’tsee either defense being all that effective.

FanDuel thoughts

You begin with the Seattle defense. At quarterback, it’s either Rodgers or Wilson to me. Aaron Rodgers has been insane at home this year, with 25 touchdowns and no interceptions, and he should be able to pick apart the Dallas defense. Wilson will get his points on the ground, and if the Panthers defense focuses too much on Lynch, Wilson could also add a touchdown there, too.

All of the placekickers are in the $4500-$4800 range, making price not much of a factor. In cash games, if you like C.J. Anderson, “hedging” with Connor Barth makes sense; ditto Marshawn Lynch and Steven Hauschka. Justin Tucker is perhaps the league’s best kicker, so at $4500, he’s an option, too.

Tight end is tricky this week. Rob Gronkowski is the clear best option, but at $7900, he’s got to score and hit 100 yards to bring value. Ignoring the tight end situation for the Packers and Seahawks, and recognizing that the Colts have two tight ends, the other six options are all in the $5000 to $6200 range. You’re basically looking for either a high floor (in which case, Jason Witten is probably your guy) or a guy to score (in which case, Julius Thomas screams value). If you think Luck will drop back 50 times, Coby Fleener is a good bet, especially if you believe the Broncos cornerbacks will do well against the Colts wide receivers. Personally, I like shooting for upside, so Thomas is my guy (although in large tournaments, I could understand diversifying if you grab Anderson).

That brings us to running back, which should be king this week. I see only four options at running back this week:

• A Panthers running back? No chance.

• DeMarco Murray is generally great value, but the Game Script concerns me.

• Justin Forsett? Like Murray, not bad value, but the Game Script is the concern.

• Dan Herron is only $6100, but his odds of scoring a touchdown are pretty low.

• LeGarrette Blount? Sure, he could wind up getting a short touchdown, but the Patriots could just as easily give him five carries and call it a day.

Shane Vereen is your sneaky play of the week. He has a habit of having his best games when the Patriots play their toughest opponents, as if Vereen is a “break glass if facing an elite opponent” option. But that does leave three running backs, playing at home, on offenses expected to score at least 25 points, and to win by at least a touchdown: Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Anderson, and Eddie Lacy.

In cash games, I would take two of them. In tournaments, I’d probably go with Vereen and one of the Big Three.

Let’s say you have a cash game (i.e., a head-to-head or 50/50 contest). You pick Wilson and Lynch to hedge your bet, Witten for his high floor, Lacy, Connor Barth, and the Seattle defense. That leaves you with $6,367 to spend per receiver. What do you do?

As unexciting as it is, I think you need to take a player from the Seahawks passin game. Doug Baldwin (5900) could combine with Kelvin Benjamin (6400) and Brandon LaFell (6800) to bring you right up to the cap. Jermaine Kearse (5000) could team with LaFell and Julian Edelman (7300) which may be even more tempting, given the Ravens secondary.

Baldwin could be paired with Benjamin and Steve Smith (6600), too, if you are afraid of the Patriots receivers. A high-upside option could be Randall Cobb (8600) with Cole Beasley (5300) and Kearse (5000). Reggie Wayne is also 5300, so he could replace Beasley there.

I like the idea of going with Kearse and the two Patriots receivers, at least in cash games. That gives you the following lineup:

QB Russell Wilson QB CAR@SEA 8200
RB Marshawn Lynch RB CAR@SEA 8900
RB Eddie Lacy RB DAL@GB 8400
WR Julian Edelman WR BAL@NE 7300
WR Brandon LaFell WR BAL@NE 6800
WR Jermaine Kearse WR CAR@SEA 5000
TE Jason Witten TE DAL@GB 5500
PK Connor Barth K IND@DEN 4700
D Seattle D CAR@SEA 5200

What about in tournaments? I’d move towards Aaron Rodgers, because I think his ownership will be a bit low due to the calf injury and his chance of simply exploding. You want C.J. Anderson and the Seahawks D in your lineup, so you may have to get creative. My thoughts:

QB Aaron Rodgers QB DAL@GB 9700
RB C.J. Anderson RB IND@DEN 8700
RB Shane Vereen RB BAL@NE 5200
WR Jordy Nelson WR DAL@GB 9000
WR Davante Adams WR DAL@GB 5100
WR Torrey Smith WR BAL@NE 7000
TE Julius Thomas TE IND@DEN 5500
PK Justin Tucker K BAL@NE 4500
D Seattle D CAR@SEA 5200

And, if you want to go crazy:

QB Russell Wilson QB CAR@SEA 8200
RB C.J. Anderson RB IND@DEN 8700
RB Eddie Lacy RB DAL@GB 8400
WR Demaryius Thomas WR IND@DEN 9100
WR Doug Baldwin WR CAR@SEA 5900
WR Jacoby Jones WR BAL@NE 4500
TE Julius Thomas TE IND@DEN 5500
PK Justin Tucker K BAL@NE 4500
D Seattle D CAR@SEA 5200