Examining the variation in rushing throughout NFL history

by Chase Stuart on July 8, 2014

There is no doubt that in modern times, passing is king. But until pretty recently, we were at the peak level in NFL history with respect to individual rushing performance. On the team level, rushing production ebbed and flows, with high points in the late ’40s, mid-’50s, and mid-’70s, but on the individual level, the 2006 season may have been the high point.

That year, Pittsburgh’s Willie Parker rushed 337 times for 1,494 yards and scored 13 touchdowns, but Parker ranked just sixth in rushing yards. He also caught 31 passes for 222 yards, but Parker ranked only 7th in yards from scrimmage. That season, the average leading rusher on the 32 teams gained 1,124 rushing yards. Again, that was average. Last year, the average leading rusher gained 912 yards. Consider that in 1991, after Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, and Thurman Thomas, the fourth-leading rusher was New York’s Rodney Hampton, and he gained 1,059 yards. In other words, 2006 and its surrounding seasons — even if it might not feel like it — really was a different era of football for running back statistics.

The graph below shows the average rushing yards gained by the leading rushing for each team in every season since 1932. All team seasons of fewer than 16 games were pro-rated to 16 games ^[1]But this does not pro-rate for injury.; the NFL line is in blue, while the AFL/AAFC line is in red.

What if we only look at individual seasons but only give credit for rushing yards above league average? For example, in 1973, O.J. Simpson rushed for 2003 yards. That was in a 14-game season, so his production gets pro-rated to 2,289 yards. The (pro-rated) league-average that season was just 989 yards, which means Simpson rushed for 1300 yards over average. That’s the most ever, just narrowly edging Jim Brown’s best year. In 1963, Brown rushed for 1,863 yards, or 2,129 pro-rated yards. The (pro-rated) league average was 830, giving Brown 1,299 rushing yards over average. The table below shows the top 200 rushing season according to this formula. By default, only the top 25 are displayed, but the table is fully sortable and searchable, and you can change the number of plays displayed by using the dropdown box on the left.

Rk	Name	Team	Year	RshYd	PRYd	LgAvg	RYOvAvg
1	O.J. Simpson	BUF	1973	2003	2289	989	1300
2	Jim Brown	CLE	1963	1863	2129	830	1299
3	Walter Payton	CHI	1977	1852	2117	941	1176
4	Jim Brown	CLE	1958	1527	2036	868	1168
5	O.J. Simpson	BUF	1975	1817	2077	964	1113
6	Eric Dickerson	RAM	1984	2105	2105	998	1107
7	Adrian Peterson	MIN	2012	2097	2097	1009	1088
8	Earl Campbell	HOU	1980	1934	1934	884	1050
9	Barry Sanders	DET	1997	2053	2053	1034	1019
10	Chris Johnson	TEN	2009	2006	2006	993	1013
11	Jim Brown	CLE	1965	1544	1765	803	962
12	Jamal Lewis	BAL	2003	2066	2066	1115	951
13	Barry Sanders	DET	1994	1883	1883	938	945
14	Terrell Davis	DEN	1998	2008	2008	1068	940
15	Eric Dickerson	RAM	1986	1821	1821	894	927
16	Jim Nance	BOS	1966	1458	1666	807	860
17	Jim Brown	CLE	1964	1446	1653	824	828
18	Shaun Alexander	SEA	2005	1880	1880	1067	813
19	Tiki Barber	NYG	2005	1860	1860	1067	793
20	Eric Dickerson	RAM	1983	1808	1808	1022	786
21	Jamal Anderson	ATL	1998	1846	1846	1068	778
22	Jim Taylor	GNB	1962	1474	1685	909	776
23	Emmitt Smith	DAL	1992	1713	1713	937	776
24	Eric Dickerson	IND	1988	1659	1659	884	775
25	Ahman Green	GNB	2003	1883	1883	1115	768
26	Emmitt Smith	DAL	1995	1773	1773	1005	768
27	Beattie Feathers	CHI	1934	1004	1473	706	766
28	Jim Brown	CLE	1959	1329	1772	1007	765
29	Spec Sanders	NYY	1947	1432	1637	875	761
30	Adrian Peterson	MIN	2008	1760	1760	999	761
31	Jim Brown	CLE	1960	1257	1676	919	757
32	Otis Armstrong	DEN	1974	1407	1608	852	756
33	Barry Foster	PIT	1992	1690	1690	937	753
34	Emmitt Smith	DAL	1991	1563	1563	817	746
35	Ricky Williams	MIA	2002	1853	1853	1113	740
36	O.J. Simpson	BUF	1976	1503	1718	983	735
37	Barry Sanders	DET	1991	1548	1548	817	731
38	Marcus Allen	RAI	1985	1759	1759	1029	730
39	Earl Campbell	HOU	1979	1697	1697	967	730
40	Jim Brown	CLE	1961	1408	1609	885	724
41	Charles White	RAM	1987	1374	1466	741	724
42	Steve Van Buren	PHI	1947	1008	1344	623	721
43	Steve Van Buren	PHI	1949	1146	1528	811	717
44	Terrell Davis	DEN	1997	1750	1750	1034	716
45	Michael Turner	ATL	2008	1699	1699	999	700
46	LeSean McCoy	PHI	2013	1607	1607	912	695
47	LaDainian Tomlinson	SDG	2006	1815	1815	1124	692
48	Gerald Riggs	ATL	1985	1719	1719	1029	690
49	Walter Payton	CHI	1984	1684	1684	998	686
50	Joe Perry	SFO	1954	1049	1399	715	683
51	Larry Johnson	KAN	2005	1750	1750	1067	683
52	Larry Johnson	KAN	2006	1789	1789	1124	666
53	Joe Perry	SFO	1953	1018	1357	704	653
54	Steve Van Buren	PHI	1945	832	1331	679	653
55	Maurice Jones-Drew	JAX	2011	1606	1606	959	647
56	Walter Payton	CHI	1979	1610	1610	967	643
57	George Rogers	NOR	1981	1674	1674	1035	639
58	Ottis Anderson	STL	1979	1605	1605	967	638
59	Eric Dickerson	2TM	1987	1288	1374	741	633
60	Jerome Bettis	PIT	1997	1665	1665	1034	631
61	Herschel Walker	DAL	1988	1514	1514	884	630
62	Joe Morris	NYG	1986	1516	1516	894	622
63	Curtis Martin	NYJ	2004	1697	1697	1077	620
64	Shaun Alexander	SEA	2004	1696	1696	1077	619
65	Edgerrin James	IND	2000	1709	1709	1090	619
66	Roger Craig	SFO	1988	1502	1502	884	618
67	Arian Foster	HOU	2010	1616	1616	1002	614
68	Tony Dorsett	DAL	1981	1646	1646	1035	611
69	Jim Taylor	GNB	1961	1307	1494	885	609
70	Chris Warren	SEA	1994	1545	1545	938	607
71	Walter Payton	CHI	1976	1390	1589	983	606
72	Edgerrin James	IND	1999	1553	1553	948	605
73	Alfred Morris	WAS	2012	1613	1613	1009	604
74	Emmitt Smith	DAL	1993	1486	1486	887	599
75	Frank Akins	WAS	1945	797	1275	679	597
76	Tony Canadeo	GNB	1949	1052	1403	811	592
77	Barry Sanders	DET	1996	1553	1553	962	591
78	Thurman Thomas	BUF	1991	1407	1407	817	590
79	Curt Warner	SEA	1986	1481	1481	894	587
80	Steve Van Buren	PHI	1948	945	1260	675	585
81	Rick Casares	CHI	1956	1126	1501	919	582
82	Marshawn Lynch	SEA	2012	1590	1590	1009	581
83	Christian Okoye	KAN	1989	1480	1480	900	580
84	Gale Sayers	CHI	1966	1231	1407	827	579
85	Walter Payton	CHI	1980	1460	1460	884	576
86	Terrell Davis	DEN	1996	1538	1538	962	576
87	Leroy Kelly	CLE	1967	1205	1377	803	574
88	Jim Nance	BOS	1967	1216	1390	817	573
89	Frank Gore	SFO	2006	1695	1695	1124	572
90	Cliff Battles	WAS	1937	874	1271	700	571
91	LaDainian Tomlinson	SDG	2002	1683	1683	1113	570
92	Leroy Kelly	CLE	1968	1239	1416	846	570
93	Barry Sanders	DET	1989	1470	1470	900	570
94	Corey Dillon	NWE	2004	1635	1635	1077	558
95	Dan Towler	RAM	1952	894	1192	641	551
96	Thurman Thomas	BUF	1992	1487	1487	937	550
97	Priest Holmes	KAN	2001	1555	1555	1006	549
98	Jim Taylor	GNB	1960	1101	1468	919	549
99	Hoyle Granger	HOU	1967	1194	1365	817	548
100	James Wilder	TAM	1984	1544	1544	998	546
101	Emmitt Smith	DAL	1994	1484	1484	938	546
102	William Andrews	ATL	1983	1567	1567	1022	545
103	Wilbert Montgomery	PHI	1979	1512	1512	967	545
104	Jerome Bettis	RAM	1993	1429	1429	887	542
105	Tiki Barber	NYG	2006	1662	1662	1124	539
106	Jim Musick	BOS	1933	809	1135	605	530
107	LaDainian Tomlinson	SDG	2003	1645	1645	1115	530
108	Earl Campbell	HOU	1978	1450	1450	920	530
109	Deuce McAllister	NOR	2003	1641	1641	1115	526
110	Walter Payton	CHI	1985	1551	1551	1029	522
111	Curtis Martin	NYJ	1999	1464	1464	948	516
112	DeAngelo Williams	CAR	2008	1515	1515	999	516
113	Mark van Eeghen	OAK	1977	1273	1455	941	514
114	Jim Taylor	GNB	1964	1169	1336	824	512
115	Larry Brown Jr.	WAS	1970	1125	1286	776	510
116	John David Crow	STL	1960	1071	1428	919	509
117	Curtis Martin	NYJ	2001	1513	1513	1006	507
118	Garrison Hearst	SFO	1998	1570	1570	1068	502
119	Priest Holmes	KAN	2002	1615	1615	1113	502
120	Jamaal Charles	KAN	2012	1509	1509	1009	500
121	Barry Sanders	DET	1995	1500	1500	1005	495
122	LaDainian Tomlinson	SDG	2007	1474	1474	982	492
123	Gerald Riggs	ATL	1984	1486	1486	998	488
124	Clinton Portis	WAS	2008	1487	1487	999	488
125	Curtis Martin	NWE	1995	1487	1487	1005	482
126	O.J. Simpson	BUF	1972	1251	1430	950	479
127	Leroy Kelly	CLE	1966	1141	1304	827	477
128	Clinton Portis	DEN	2003	1591	1591	1115	476
129	Don Woods	SDG	1974	1162	1328	852	476
130	Walter Payton	CHI	1978	1395	1395	920	475
131	Swede Hanson	PHI	1934	805	1181	706	474
132	Lawrence McCutcheon	RAM	1977	1238	1415	941	474
133	Edgerrin James	IND	2004	1548	1548	1077	471
134	Jim Brown	CLE	1957	942	1256	786	470
135	Jerome Bettis	PIT	1996	1431	1431	962	469
136	Ottis Anderson	STL	1980	1352	1352	884	468
137	Dan Towler	RAM	1953	879	1172	704	468
138	Floyd Little	DEN	1971	1133	1295	829	465
139	Jamaal Charles	KAN	2010	1467	1467	1002	465
140	Bill Paschal	NYG	1944	737	1179	715	464
141	Eddie Price	NYG	1951	971	1295	834	461
142	Franco Harris	PIT	1975	1246	1424	964	460
143	Rueben Mayes	NOR	1986	1353	1353	894	459
144	Fred Taylor	JAX	2003	1572	1572	1115	457
145	Stephen Davis	WAS	1999	1405	1405	948	457
146	Freeman McNeil	NYJ	1982	786	1397	943	454
147	Barry Sanders	DET	1990	1304	1304	853	451
148	Clinton Portis	WAS	2005	1516	1516	1067	449
149	Paul Lowe	SDG	1965	1121	1281	832	449
150	Emmitt Smith	DAL	1999	1397	1397	948	449
151	Ricky Watters	PHI	1996	1411	1411	962	449
152	Doug Martin	TAM	2012	1454	1454	1009	445
153	Thurman Thomas	BUF	1990	1297	1297	853	444
154	Tiki Barber	NYG	2004	1518	1518	1077	441
155	Larry Brown Jr.	WAS	1972	1216	1390	950	439
156	Walter Payton	CHI	1986	1333	1333	894	439
157	Edgerrin James	IND	2005	1506	1506	1067	439
158	Rob Goode	WAS	1951	951	1268	834	434
159	O.J. Simpson	BUF	1974	1125	1286	852	434
160	John Brockington	GNB	1971	1105	1263	829	433
161	Gerald Riggs	ATL	1986	1327	1327	894	433
162	Marshall Faulk	STL	1999	1381	1381	948	433
163	Robert Smith	MIN	2000	1521	1521	1090	431
164	Cliff Battles	BOS	1933	737	1034	605	429
165	Thurman Thomas	BUF	1993	1315	1315	887	428
166	Curt Warner	SEA	1983	1449	1449	1022	427
167	Matt Forte	CHI	2013	1339	1339	912	427
168	Stephen Davis	WAS	2001	1432	1432	1006	426
169	Mike Garrett	KAN	1967	1087	1242	817	425
170	William Andrews	ATL	1980	1308	1308	884	424
171	Barry Sanders	DET	1998	1491	1491	1068	423
172	Steven Jackson	STL	2009	1416	1416	993	423
173	Bill Osmanski	CHI	1939	699	1017	595	421
174	Alan Ameche	BAL	1955	961	1281	862	420
175	Eddie George	TEN	2000	1509	1509	1090	419
176	Billy Sims	DET	1980	1303	1303	884	419
177	Dick Bass	RAM	1966	1090	1246	827	418
178	Lawrence McCutcheon	RAM	1974	1109	1267	852	415
179	Barry Sanders	DET	1992	1352	1352	937	415
180	Arian Foster	HOU	2012	1424	1424	1009	415
181	Dutch Clark	DET	1934	763	1119	706	413
182	Natrone Means	SDG	1994	1350	1350	938	412
183	Eric Dickerson	IND	1989	1311	1311	900	411
184	Thomas Jones	NYJ	2009	1402	1402	993	409
185	Eddie George	HOU	1996	1368	1368	962	406
186	Ray Rice	BAL	2011	1364	1364	959	405
187	Tony Dorsett	DAL	1978	1325	1325	920	405
188	Steven Jackson	STL	2006	1528	1528	1124	405
189	Cookie Gilchrist	BUF	1962	1096	1253	849	404
190	Bill Dudley	PIT	1942	696	1012	609	403
191	Billy Sims	DET	1981	1437	1437	1035	402
192	Dorsey Levens	GNB	1997	1435	1435	1034	401
193	Ron Johnson	NYG	1972	1182	1351	950	401
194	Lydell Mitchell	BAL	1975	1193	1363	964	400
195	Walter Payton	CHI	1983	1421	1421	1022	399
196	Maurice Jones-Drew	JAX	2009	1391	1391	993	398
197	Ron Johnson	NYG	1970	1027	1174	776	398
198	Mike Anderson	DEN	2000	1487	1487	1090	397
199	Gale Sayers	CHI	1969	1032	1179	784	396
200	John Henry Johnson	PIT	1962	1141	1304	909	395

Walter Payton and Sanders lead the way with nine top-200 seasons. After them comes Brown, who has 8 top-200 seasons despite playing for only nine years.

Eric Dickerson and Smith have six top-200 seasons, while Simpson is the only player with exactly five top-200 performances.

Six players have exactly four top-200 seasons: Jim Taylor, Steve Van Buren, LaDainian Tomlinson, Curtis Martin, Edgerrin James, and Thurman Thomas.

Seven more have exactly three top-200 seasons: Earl Campbell, Terrell Davis, Tiki Barber, Gerald Riggs, Jerome Bettis, Leroy Kelly, and Clinton Portis. Incredibly, Adrian Peterson has just two such seasons, although they are two top thirty years. And Peterson does have five top 235 seasons.

What if we calculate the number of rushing yards over league average produced by each player over the course of his career? By ignoring all below-average seasons, this is a good way to avoid giving undue credit to compilers while also adjusting for era. Take a look:

Rk	Name	First Yr	Last Yr	RYOvAvg	HOF?
1	Jim Brown	1957	1965	7202	Yes
2	Barry Sanders	1989	1998	5868	Yes
3	Walter Payton	1975	1987	5825	Yes
4	Eric Dickerson	1983	1993	4844	Yes
5	Emmitt Smith	1990	2004	4643	Yes
6	O.J. Simpson	1969	1979	4080	Yes
7	LaDainian Tomlinson	2001	2011	3278	Not el.
8	Adrian Peterson	2007	2013	3258	Not el.
9	Curtis Martin	1995	2005	2968	Yes
10	Earl Campbell	1978	1985	2943	Yes
11	Steve Van Buren	1944	1951	2890	Yes
12	Tony Dorsett	1977	1988	2816	Yes
13	Jim Taylor	1958	1967	2814	Yes
14	Thurman Thomas	1988	2000	2582	Yes
15	Edgerrin James	1999	2009	2554	Not el.
16	Joe Perry	1948	1963	2359	Yes
17	Terrell Davis	1995	2001	2344	No
18	Clinton Portis	2002	2010	2326	Not el.
19	Jerome Bettis	1993	2005	2306	No
20	Franco Harris	1972	1984	2218	Yes
21	Tiki Barber	1997	2006	2148	No
22	Shaun Alexander	2000	2008	2127	No
23	Ottis Anderson	1979	1992	2095	No
24	Chris Johnson	2008	2013	2091	Not el.
25	Leroy Kelly	1964	1973	1930	Yes
26	Eddie George	1996	2004	1824	No
27	Corey Dillon	1997	2006	1820	No
28	Gerald Riggs	1982	1991	1804	No
29	Jamal Lewis	2000	2009	1772	Not el.
30	Marshall Faulk	1994	2005	1766	Yes
31	Lawrence McCutcheon	1972	1981	1584	No
32	Curt Warner	1983	1990	1530	No
33	Frank Gore	2005	2013	1527	Not el.
34	Ricky Watters	1992	2001	1517	No
35	Fred Taylor	1998	2010	1512	Not el.
36	Gale Sayers	1965	1971	1498	Yes
37	Jim Nance	1965	1973	1493	No
38	Jamaal Charles	2008	2013	1467	Not el.
39	Michael Turner	2004	2012	1450	Not el.
40	Ahman Green	1998	2009	1448	Not el.
41	Stephen Davis	1996	2006	1440	No
42	Larry Brown Jr.	1969	1976	1435	No
43	Dan Towler	1950	1955	1407	No
44	Maurice Jones-Drew	2006	2013	1368	Not el.
45	William Andrews	1979	1986	1367	No
46	Ricky Williams	1999	2011	1365	Not el.
47	Priest Holmes	1997	2007	1356	No
48	Larry Johnson	2003	2011	1349	Not el.
49	Steven Jackson	2004	2013	1348	Not el.
50	Marshawn Lynch	2007	2013	1340	Not el.
51	Lydell Mitchell	1972	1980	1297	No
52	Arian Foster	2009	2013	1294	Not el.
53	Cliff Battles	1932	1937	1291	Yes
54	Marcus Allen	1982	1997	1259	Yes
55	John Riggins	1971	1985	1249	Yes
56	Thomas Jones	2000	2011	1213	Not el.
57	Chris Warren	1990	2000	1212	No
58	Wilbert Montgomery	1977	1985	1211	No
59	Cookie Gilchrist	1962	1967	1147	No
60	George Rogers	1981	1987	1143	No
61	John Brockington	1971	1977	1132	No
62	Joe Morris	1982	1991	1128	No
63	LeSean McCoy	2009	2013	1123	Not el.
64	Ray Rice	2008	2013	1103	Not el.
65	Paul Lowe	1960	1969	1098	No
66	Spec Sanders	1946	1950	1091	No
67	Larry Csonka	1968	1979	1082	Yes
68	John Henry Johnson	1954	1966	1072	Yes
69	Terry Allen	1991	2001	1051	No
70	Billy Sims	1980	1984	1032	No
71	Eddie Price	1950	1955	1006	No
72	Herschel Walker	1986	1997	995	No
73	Alfred Morris	2012	2013	966	Not el.
74	Chuck Foreman	1973	1980	962	No
75	Calvin Hill	1969	1981	955	No

Using this method, Smith, the career rushing leader, drops to 5th on the list. And Simpson, who ranks 18th in career rushing yards, vaults to sixth. Campbell is 33rd in career rushing yards, but tenth here.

Among running backs eligible but not yet in the Hall of Fame, it’s not Jerome Bettis who ranks highest on the list. Bettis, who ranks 6th in career rushing yards, finishes two spots behind Terrell Davis using this methodology. Should Davis be a Hall of Famer? That’s outside the scope of this post. This analysis tends to support his case, though, and it even ignores his touchdowns and his postseason play (it also ignores his lack of receiving and the value he gained from playing in Denver).

Let me know your thoughts on the process in general, and some of the individual results, in the comments.

References[+]

References
↑1	But this does not pro-rate for injury.

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