Expected Rushing Touchdowns Based on Rushing Yards

by Chase Stuart on August 2, 2015

Last weekend, we looked at the league-average ratios between receiving yards and touchdowns, and which players scored far more touchdowns than we would expect. Today, we do the same but for rushing yards.

For whatever reason, Jerome Bettis’ 2005 has become etched in the memories of many folks. That year, he rushed for 368 yards and 9 touchdowns. Back in ’05, the NFL average was 133.6 rushing yards per rushing touchdown. So we would expect Bettis, with 368 rushing yards, to rush for 2.8 touchdowns. That means Bettis actually rushed for 6.2 more touchdowns than we would “expect” given his rushing total.

The top metric by this season? Priest Holmes in 2003, when he set the single-season rushing touchdown record with 27 (since broken by LaDainian Tomlinson in ’06). In 2003, there were 141.3 rushing yards for every rushing touchdown; given Holmes’ 1,420 rushing yards, we would have expected Holmes to rush for 10 touchdowns. Since he rushed for 27, that gave him 17 more than expected. The table below shows the top 100 seasons. It is fully sortable and searchable.

Rk	Player	Year	Tm	Lg	Pos	Yds	Exp	TD	Diff
1	Priest Holmes	2003	KAN	NFL	RB	1420	10	27	17
2	LaDainian Tomlinson	2006	SDG	NFL	RB	1815	12.8	28	15.2
3	John Riggins	1983	WAS	NFL	RB	1347	10.1	24	13.9
4	Shaun Alexander	2005	SEA	NFL	RB	1880	14.1	27	12.9
5	Emmitt Smith	1995	DAL	NFL	RB	1773	13.2	25	11.8
6	Terry Allen	1996	WAS	NFL	RB	1353	9.4	21	11.6
7	Lenny Moore	1964	BAL	NFL	HB	584	4.7	16	11.3
8	Pete Banaszak	1975	OAK	NFL	RB	672	5.2	16	10.8
9	Pete Johnson	1984	2TM	NFL	RB	205	1.5	12	10.5
10	Joe Morris	1985	NYG	NFL	RB	1336	10.6	21	10.4
11	Chuck Muncie	1981	SDG	NFL	RB	1144	8.7	19	10.3
12	Emmitt Smith	1994	DAL	NFL	RB	1484	10.8	21	10.2
13	Marion Barber	2006	DAL	NFL	RB	654	4.6	14	9.4
14	Cam Newton	2011	CAR	NFL	QB	706	4.7	14	9.3
15	Steve Grogan	1976	NWE	NFL	QB	397	2.8	12	9.2
16	Gerald Riggs	1991	WAS	NFL	RB	248	1.8	11	9.2
17	George Rogers	1986	WAS	NFL	RB	1203	9.1	18	8.9
18	LenDale White	2008	TEN	NFL	RB	773	6.2	15	8.8
19	Karim Abdul-Jabbar	1997	MIA	NFL	RB	892	6.3	15	8.7
20	David Sims	1978	SEA	NFL	FB	752	5.4	14	8.6
21	Robb Riddick	1988	BUF	NFL	RB	438	3.4	12	8.6
22	Priest Holmes	2002	KAN	NFL	RB	1615	12.5	21	8.5
23	Don McCauley	1975	BAL	NFL	RB	196	1.5	10	8.5
24	LeSean McCoy	2011	PHI	NFL	RB	1309	8.7	17	8.3
25	Pete Johnson	1983	CIN	NFL	FB	763	5.7	14	8.3
26	Willis McGahee	2009	BAL	NFL	RB	544	3.9	12	8.1
27	Ron Davenport	1985	MIA	NFL	RB	370	2.9	11	8.1
28	Adrian Peterson	2009	MIN	NFL	RB	1383	9.9	18	8.1
29	Cleveland Gary	1990	RAM	NFL	RB	808	6	14	8
30	Johnny Hector	1987	NYJ	NFL	RB	435	3	11	8
31	Marshall Faulk	2000	STL	NFL	RB	1359	10	18	8
32	Stephen Davis	2005	CAR	NFL	RB	549	4.1	12	7.9
33	Tobin Rote	1956	GNB	NFL	QB	398	3.2	11	7.8
34	Paul Hornung	1960	GNB	NFL	HB	671	5.2	13	7.8
35	Moe Williams	2002	MIN	NFL	RB	414	3.2	11	7.8
36	Priest Holmes	2004	KAN	NFL	RB	892	6.2	14	7.8
37	Hank Bauer	1979	SDG	NFL	RB	28	0.2	8	7.8
38	LaDainian Tomlinson	2004	SDG	NFL	RB	1335	9.3	17	7.7
39	Derrick Fenner	1990	SEA	NFL	RB	859	6.3	14	7.7
40	Kordell Stewart	1997	PIT	NFL	QB	476	3.4	11	7.6
41	Mario Bates	1999	ARI	NFL	RB	202	1.4	9	7.6
42	John Riggins	1981	WAS	NFL	RB	714	5.4	13	7.6
43	Johnny Lujack	1950	CHI	NFL	QB	397	3.4	11	7.6
44	John David Crow	1962	STL	NFL	HB	751	6.5	14	7.5
45	Marcus Allen	1997	KAN	NFL	RB	505	3.6	11	7.4
46	Don McCauley	1976	BAL	NFL	RB	227	1.6	9	7.4
47	Stephen Davis	1999	WAS	NFL	RB	1405	9.7	17	7.3
48	Marcus Allen	1993	KAN	NFL	RB	764	4.7	12	7.3
49	Corey Dillon	2006	NWE	NFL	RB	812	5.7	13	7.3
50	Leroy Kelly	1968	CLE	NFL	HB	1239	8.8	16	7.2
51	Jon Keyworth	1974	DEN	NFL	FB	374	2.8	10	7.2
52	Otto Graham	1954	CLE	NFL	QB	114	0.9	8	7.1
53	Zack Crockett	2002	OAK	NFL	FB	118	0.9	8	7.1
54	Pete Johnson	1979	CIN	NFL	FB	865	6.9	14	7.1
55	Emerson Boozer	1972	NYJ	NFL	RB	549	3.9	11	7.1
56	LaDainian Tomlinson	2005	SDG	NFL	RB	1462	10.9	18	7.1
57	Billy Jackson	1981	KAN	NFL	RB	398	3	10	7
58	Marcus Allen	1990	RAI	NFL	RB	682	5	12	7
59	Terrell Davis	1998	DEN	NFL	RB	2008	14.1	21	6.9
60	Shaun Alexander	2002	SEA	NFL	RB	1175	9.1	16	6.9
61	Larry Johnson	2005	KAN	NFL	RB	1750	13.1	20	6.9
62	Tim Hightower	2008	ARI	NFL	RB	399	3.2	10	6.8
63	Gale Sayers	1965	CHI	NFL	HB	867	7.2	14	6.8
64	LaDainian Tomlinson	2009	SDG	NFL	RB	730	5.2	12	6.8
65	Tony Paige	1985	NYJ	NFL	FB	158	1.3	8	6.7
66	Dick Hoerner	1950	RAM	NFL	FB	381	3.3	10	6.7
67	Ickey Woods	1988	CIN	NFL	FB	1066	8.3	15	6.7
68	T.J. Duckett	2008	SEA	NFL	RB	172	1.4	8	6.6
69	James Stewart	1999	JAX	NFL	RB	931	6.4	13	6.6
70	Greg Bell	1988	RAM	NFL	RB	1212	9.4	16	6.6
71	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	2011	NWE	NFL	RB	667	4.4	11	6.6
72	Clint Jones	1970	MIN	NFL	RB	369	2.5	9	6.5
73	Corey Dillon	2005	NWE	NFL	RB	733	5.5	12	6.5
74	Emmitt Smith	1992	DAL	NFL	RB	1713	11.5	18	6.5
75	Greg Bell	1989	RAM	NFL	RB	1137	8.5	15	6.5
76	Jerome Bettis	2004	PIT	NFL	RB	941	6.6	13	6.4
77	Herschel Walker	1986	DAL	NFL	RB	737	5.6	12	6.4
78	Ted Brown	1983	MIN	NFL	FB	476	3.6	10	6.4
79	Don Nottingham	1975	MIA	NFL	FB	718	5.6	12	6.4
80	Emerson Boozer	1967	NYJ	AFL	HB	442	3.6	10	6.4
81	Ottis Anderson	1988	NYG	NFL	RB	208	1.6	8	6.4
82	Maurice Jones-Drew	2006	JAX	NFL	RB	941	6.6	13	6.4
83	Jerry Shipkey	1948	PIT	NFL	FB	199	1.7	8	6.3
84	Rodney Hampton	1992	NYG	NFL	RB	1141	7.7	14	6.3
85	Ottis Anderson	1989	NYG	NFL	RB	1023	7.7	14	6.3
86	Jim Taylor	1962	GNB	NFL	FB	1474	12.7	19	6.3
87	Eddie Ray	1973	ATL	NFL	RB	434	2.7	9	6.3
88	Brandon Jacobs	2008	NYG	NFL	RB	1089	8.7	15	6.3
89	Brandon Jacobs	2005	NYG	NFL	RB	99	0.7	7	6.3
90	Jerome Bettis	2005	PIT	NFL	RB	368	2.8	9	6.2
91	Tim Spencer	1985	SDG	NFL	FB	478	3.8	10	6.2
92	Dan Towler	1954	RAM	NFL	FB	599	4.8	11	6.2
93	Leroy Hoard	1999	MIN	NFL	RB	555	3.8	10	6.2
94	Ki-Jana Carter	1996	CIN	NFL	RB	264	1.8	8	6.2
95	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	2010	NWE	NFL	RB	1008	6.9	13	6.1
96	Franco Harris	1976	PIT	NFL	FB	1128	7.9	14	6.1
97	Brad Baxter	1991	NYJ	NFL	FB	666	4.9	11	6.1
98	Horace Ivory	1978	NWE	NFL	RB	693	5	11	6
99	Zack Crockett	2000	OAK	NFL	FB	130	1	7	6
100	Tony Paige	1984	NYJ	NFL	RB	130	1	7	6

The table is dominated by great running backs who had excellent seasons, which isn’t surprising but maybe moves away from the intent of the post. Instead, I like to sort the table by ascending rushing yards. Do that, and you’ll see Hank Bauer and his incredible 1979 season. While you might recall that in 2004, Bettis had a 5-carry, 1-yard, 3-TD game against the Raiders in week one. Well, in ’79, Bauer had a 4-carry, 1-yard, 3-TD game against the Saints, a 3-carry, 4-yard, 2-TD game against the Rams, a 3/4/1 game against San Francisco, a 2/3/1 against Pittsburgh, and a 2/1/1 performance against the Falcons.

In 1979, Dan Fouts, aided by the new 16-game schedule, set the single-season record for passing yards in a season. And while the Chargers also ranked 6th with 24 passing touchdowns, San Diego also scored 25 touchdowns on the ground. Clarence Williams rushed 200 times for 752 yards and 12 touchdowns, while Bauer had 22 carries for 28 yards and 8 scores. That’s a goal-line back.

In the comments to last weekend’s post, a discussion broke out about Gerald Riggs and his 1991 season. Well, Riggs ranks 16th in this system, with 11 touchdowns coming on the back of just 248 yards (+9.2).

Finally, let’s look at the reverse: using the same methodology, which players have scored the fewest touchdowns relative to expectation (based on rushing yards)? Three Jets seasons make the top five and a fourth cracks the top 15, but one season stands alone at the top of the list. That was Tony Dorsett in 1981, when the Cowboys star rushed for a career-high 1,641 yards. On average, players scored rushing touchdowns on every 132.2 rushing yards that season, so we would have expected Dorsett to rush for 12.5 touchdowns. Since he finished with just four, he gets a -8.5 grade, the lowest in history.

Below are the “top” 100 seasons by this metric:

Rk	Player	Year	Tm	Lg	Pos	Yds	Exp	TD	Diff
1	Tony Dorsett	1981	DAL	NFL	RB	1646	12.5	4	-8.5
2	Warrick Dunn	2005	ATL	NFL	RB	1416	10.6	3	-7.6
3	Freeman McNeil	1985	NYJ	NFL	RB	1331	10.5	3	-7.5
4	Clark Gaines	1979	NYJ	NFL	FB	905	7.3	0	-7.3
5	Curtis Martin	2003	NYJ	NFL	RB	1308	9.3	2	-7.3
6	Reuben Droughns	2005	CLE	NFL	RB	1232	9.2	2	-7.2
7	Willie Parker	2007	PIT	NFL	RB	1316	8.9	2	-6.9
8	Garrison Hearst	1995	ARI	NFL	RB	1070	7.9	1	-6.9
9	Joe Washington	1978	BAL	NFL	RB	956	6.8	0	-6.8
10	Herschel Walker	1988	DAL	NFL	RB	1514	11.8	5	-6.8
11	Tiki Barber	2006	NYG	NFL	RB	1662	11.7	5	-6.7
12	Barry Sanders	1994	DET	NFL	RB	1883	13.7	7	-6.7
13	Thomas Jones	2007	NYJ	NFL	RB	1119	7.6	1	-6.6
14	Tiki Barber	2003	NYG	NFL	RB	1216	8.6	2	-6.6
15	Fred Taylor	2004	JAX	NFL	RB	1224	8.5	2	-6.5
16	Clem Daniels	1963	OAK	AFL	HB	1099	9.5	3	-6.5
17	Barry Sanders	1998	DET	NFL	RB	1491	10.4	4	-6.4
18	James Allen	2000	CHI	NFL	RB	1120	8.3	2	-6.3
19	Kenny King	1981	OAK	NFL	RB	828	6.3	0	-6.3
20	Derrick Ward	2008	NYG	NFL	RB	1025	8.2	2	-6.2
21	Steven Jackson	2009	STL	NFL	RB	1416	10.2	4	-6.2
22	Preston Carpenter	1956	CLE	NFL	LH	756	6	0	-6
23	Dave Osborn	1967	MIN	NFL	HB	972	7.9	2	-5.9
24	Garrison Hearst	1996	CIN	NFL	RB	847	5.9	0	-5.9
25	Marcel Shipp	2003	ARI	NFL	RB	830	5.9	0	-5.9
26	Harold Green	1992	CIN	NFL	RB	1170	7.9	2	-5.9
27	William Andrews	1980	ATL	NFL	FB	1308	9.9	4	-5.9
28	Justin Fargas	2008	OAK	NFL	RB	853	6.8	1	-5.8
29	Joe Washington	1983	WAS	NFL	RB	772	5.8	0	-5.8
30	Don Perkins	1965	DAL	NFL	FB	690	5.7	0	-5.7
31	Gary Anderson	1988	SDG	NFL	RB	1119	8.7	3	-5.7
32	Edgerrin James	2002	IND	NFL	RB	989	7.7	2	-5.7
33	Ryan Grant	2008	GNB	NFL	RB	1203	9.6	4	-5.6
34	Fred Jackson	2009	BUF	NFL	RB	1062	7.6	2	-5.6
35	Archie Griffin	1979	CIN	NFL	RB	688	5.5	0	-5.5
36	Joe Cribbs	1983	BUF	NFL	RB	1131	8.5	3	-5.5
37	Joe Delaney	1981	KAN	NFL	RB	1121	8.5	3	-5.5
38	O.J. Simpson	1974	BUF	NFL	RB	1125	8.5	3	-5.5
39	Alex Webster	1961	NYG	NFL	FB	928	7.4	2	-5.4
40	Lawrence McCutcheon	1974	RAM	NFL	RB	1109	8.3	3	-5.3
41	Michael Vick	2006	ATL	NFL	QB	1039	7.3	2	-5.3
42	Frank Ziegler	1950	PHI	NFL	RH	733	6.3	1	-5.3
43	Michael Pittman	2003	TAM	NFL	RB	751	5.3	0	-5.3
44	Domanick Williams	2005	HOU	NFL	RB	976	7.3	2	-5.3
45	Wilbur Jackson	1974	SFO	NFL	RB	705	5.3	0	-5.3
46	Jerome Bettis	1998	PIT	NFL	RB	1185	8.3	3	-5.3
47	Joe Cribbs	1981	BUF	NFL	RB	1097	8.3	3	-5.3
48	Tony Canadeo	1949	GNB	NFL	LH	1052	9.3	4	-5.3
49	Robert Newhouse	1975	DAL	NFL	FB	930	7.3	2	-5.3
50	Tatum Bell	2006	DEN	NFL	RB	1025	7.2	2	-5.2
51	Billy Cannon	1960	HOU	AFL	HB	644	6.2	1	-5.2
52	William Andrews	1979	ATL	NFL	FB	1023	8.2	3	-5.2
53	Jamaal Charles	2012	KAN	NFL	RB	1509	10.2	5	-5.2
54	Warrick Dunn	1998	TAM	NFL	RB	1026	7.2	2	-5.2
55	Fred Taylor	2003	JAX	NFL	RB	1572	11.1	6	-5.1
56	John Stephens	1988	NWE	NFL	RB	1168	9.1	4	-5.1
57	Lawrence McCutcheon	1975	RAM	NFL	RB	911	7.1	2	-5.1
58	Napoleon Kaufman	1996	OAK	NFL	RB	874	6.1	1	-5.1
59	Clem Daniels	1964	OAK	AFL	HB	824	7.1	2	-5.1
60	Curtis Martin	1999	NYJ	NFL	RB	1464	10.1	5	-5.1
61	Michael Bennett	2002	MIN	NFL	RB	1296	10	5	-5
62	Walter Payton	1980	CHI	NFL	RB	1460	11	6	-5
63	Willie Parker	2005	PIT	NFL	RB	1202	9	4	-5
64	Jamaal Charles	2010	KAN	NFL	RB	1467	10	5	-5
65	Robert Smith	1999	MIN	NFL	RB	1015	7	2	-5
66	Boyce Green	1984	CLE	NFL	RB	673	5	0	-5
67	Tom Sullivan	1975	PHI	NFL	RB	632	4.9	0	-4.9
68	Tiki Barber	2005	NYG	NFL	RB	1860	13.9	9	-4.9
69	Edgar Bennett	1995	GNB	NFL	FB	1067	7.9	3	-4.9
70	Adrian Murrell	1995	NYJ	NFL	RB	795	5.9	1	-4.9
71	Lawrence McCutcheon	1973	RAM	NFL	RB	1097	6.9	2	-4.9
72	Ottis Anderson	1979	STL	NFL	RB	1605	12.9	8	-4.9
73	Thurman Thomas	1988	BUF	NFL	RB	881	6.9	2	-4.9
74	Tony Canadeo	1946	GNB	NFL	TB	476	4.9	0	-4.9
75	Frank Pollard	1985	PIT	NFL	FB	991	7.8	3	-4.8
76	Craig James	1984	NWE	NFL	RB	790	5.8	1	-4.8
77	Jerome Bettis	1997	PIT	NFL	RB	1665	11.8	7	-4.8
78	Duce Staley	2004	PIT	NFL	RB	830	5.8	1	-4.8
79	William Andrews	1983	ATL	NFL	RB	1567	11.8	7	-4.8
80	Hewritt Dixon	1970	OAK	NFL	FB	861	5.8	1	-4.8
81	Rodney Hampton	1996	NYG	NFL	RB	827	5.8	1	-4.8
82	George Rogers	1984	NOR	NFL	RB	914	6.8	2	-4.8
83	Duce Staley	1999	PHI	NFL	RB	1273	8.7	4	-4.7
84	Craig James	1985	NWE	NFL	FB	1227	9.7	5	-4.7
85	Hewritt Dixon	1968	OAK	AFL	FB	865	6.7	2	-4.7
86	Walter Payton	1983	CHI	NFL	RB	1421	10.7	6	-4.7
87	Cadillac Williams	2006	TAM	NFL	RB	798	5.6	1	-4.6
88	C.J. Spiller	2013	BUF	NFL	RB	933	6.6	2	-4.6
89	Terrell Davis	2001	DEN	NFL	RB	701	4.6	0	-4.6
90	Maurice Morris	2008	SEA	NFL	RB	574	4.6	0	-4.6
91	DeShaun Foster	2005	CAR	NFL	RB	879	6.6	2	-4.6
92	Michael Pittman	2002	TAM	NFL	RB	718	5.6	1	-4.6
93	Wilbur Jackson	1976	SFO	NFL	FB	792	5.6	1	-4.6
94	Ottis Anderson	1983	STL	NFL	RB	1270	9.5	5	-4.5
95	Jim Brown	1964	CLE	NFL	FB	1446	11.5	7	-4.5
96	Charlie Garner	2001	OAK	NFL	RB	839	5.5	1	-4.5
97	Sammy Winder	1984	DEN	NFL	RB	1153	8.5	4	-4.5
98	Kevin Faulk	2003	NWE	NFL	RB	638	4.5	0	-4.5
99	Carl Garrett	1971	NWE	NFL	RB	784	5.5	1	-4.5
100	Jerome Bettis	1994	RAM	NFL	RB	1025	7.5	3	-4.5

Here’s some irony: Bettis actually has more seasons in this table than in the first one.

Tagged as: Weekend Trivia

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