Last weekend, we looked at the league-average ratios between receiving yards and touchdowns, and which players scored far more touchdowns than we would expect. Today, we do the same but for rushing yards.
For whatever reason, Jerome Bettis’ 2005 has become etched in the memories of many folks. That year, he rushed for 368 yards and 9 touchdowns. Back in ’05, the NFL average was 133.6 rushing yards per rushing touchdown. So we would expect Bettis, with 368 rushing yards, to rush for 2.8 touchdowns. That means Bettis actually rushed for 6.2 more touchdowns than we would “expect” given his rushing total.
The top metric by this season? Priest Holmes in 2003, when he set the single-season rushing touchdown record with 27 (since broken by LaDainian Tomlinson in ’06). In 2003, there were 141.3 rushing yards for every rushing touchdown; given Holmes’ 1,420 rushing yards, we would have expected Holmes to rush for 10 touchdowns. Since he rushed for 27, that gave him 17 more than expected. The table below shows the top 100 seasons. It is fully sortable and searchable.
The table is dominated by great running backs who had excellent seasons, which isn’t surprising but maybe moves away from the intent of the post. Instead, I like to sort the table by ascending rushing yards. Do that, and you’ll see Hank Bauer and his incredible 1979 season. While you might recall that in 2004, Bettis had a 5-carry, 1-yard, 3-TD game against the Raiders in week one. Well, in ’79, Bauer had a 4-carry, 1-yard, 3-TD game against the Saints, a 3-carry, 4-yard, 2-TD game against the Rams, a 3/4/1 game against San Francisco, a 2/3/1 against Pittsburgh, and a 2/1/1 performance against the Falcons.
In 1979, Dan Fouts, aided by the new 16-game schedule, set the single-season record for passing yards in a season. And while the Chargers also ranked 6th with 24 passing touchdowns, San Diego also scored 25 touchdowns on the ground. Clarence Williams rushed 200 times for 752 yards and 12 touchdowns, while Bauer had 22 carries for 28 yards and 8 scores. That’s a goal-line back.
In the comments to last weekend’s post, a discussion broke out about Gerald Riggs and his 1991 season. Well, Riggs ranks 16th in this system, with 11 touchdowns coming on the back of just 248 yards (+9.2).
Finally, let’s look at the reverse: using the same methodology, which players have scored the fewest touchdowns relative to expectation (based on rushing yards)? Three Jets seasons make the top five and a fourth cracks the top 15, but one season stands alone at the top of the list. That was Tony Dorsett in 1981, when the Cowboys star rushed for a career-high 1,641 yards. On average, players scored rushing touchdowns on every 132.2 rushing yards that season, so we would have expected Dorsett to rush for 12.5 touchdowns. Since he finished with just four, he gets a -8.5 grade, the lowest in history.
Below are the “top” 100 seasons by this metric:
Here’s some irony: Bettis actually has more seasons in this table than in the first one.
