Before we get to my mock draft, here’s a recap of some of my previous articles on the NFL draft:
- The numbers behind Football Perspective’s Draft Value Chart
- Is the draft an efficient market? It appears so, as teams appropriately value age when drafting quarterbacks, teams aren’t biased in favor or against small school prospects, and team draft success is wildly inconsistent from year to year.
- While Tavon Austin may be the most exciting player in the draft, I reviewed the dozens of previous Tavon Austins to enter the NFL.
- I speculated last week that Geno Smith might fall far in the draft, until a team trades up into the back end of the first round to get him.
- It’s hard to understand how NFL teams put discount rates on next year’s draft picks, as the discount rate varies wildly, even though all teams seem to overpay.
- Earlier this week, I looked at which positions are most likely to bust (and boom) in the first round.
Draft Pick Value Calculators – Don’t Watch the Draft Without Them
I’ve created Draft Pick Value Calculators based on both my Draft Value Chart and the Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart. As trades unfold tonight, you can use both calculators to see who won the trade. I’ll be providing draft commentary on twitter, and you can follow me @fbgchase.
The 2013 Football Perspective Mock Draft
1. Chiefs – LT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
Eric Fisher has more upside than Luke Joeckel and is a more physical player, which is why we’re now seeing more people mock Fisher to the Chiefs. The Chiefs aren’t in need of a left tackle, but Fisher is the top prospect in the draft at an elite position. Kansas City will try to trade the pick (and/or Branden Albert), but will ultimately end up selecting Fisher.
2. Dolphins (From Jaguars in Draft Night Trade) – LT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
Miami didn’t go all-in on Ryan Tannehill and Mike Wallace to leave a hole at left tackle. Jeff Ireland is on the hot seat, and is happy to send his 2014 1st rounder to Jacksonville for a premier left tackle, especially one who has played with Tannehill and under OC Mike Sherman. New GM Dave Caldwell wants more for the #2 pick, but knows having an additional first rounder in 2014 could help in finding a franchise quarterback.
3. Raiders – DT Sharrif Floyd, Florida
Oakland wants to trade down, but can’t find a willing suitor. The Raiders are desperate for bodies on the defensive line, and Floyd is a penetrating one-gap tackle who will instantly make the Raiders defense better.
4. Eagles – DE Dion Jordan, Oregon
Chip Kelly can’t resist taking the most exciting defensive prospect in the draft. Jordan is capable of playing in both the 3-4 and 4-3, making him a good fit for Kelly’s hybrid defense. An elite pass rusher who can help his new Eagles teammates get used to life under Kelly is a dream scenario Philadelphia fans, who will still boo the pick.
5. Chargers (From Lions in Draft Night Trade) – LT Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
Mike McCoy needs to resurrect Philip Rivers’ career, and the addition of King Dunlap (Philadelphia) and now Johnson will help shore up the edges of the San Diego line. Johnson is already one of the most athletic tackles in NFL history with off-the-chart measurables, making him the type of player a team is willing to move up to take. The Lions are willing to take any of the top corners, so Detroit accepts San Diego’s offer of the 11th, 76th, and 111th picks for the 5th pick.
6. Browns – WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia
Cleveland tries to trade down, but can’t find any takers. The Browns invested in the defense in the offseason (Paul Kruger, Desmond Bryant, Quentin Groves (who isn’t having a good week)), but need to fix an anemic offense. Austin should greatly help Brandon Weeden, and the two will trade Dana Holgorsen drinking stories (Holgo was Weeden’s OC in 2010 at Oklahoma State) in Cleveland. With Austin, Josh Gordon, and Greg Little, the team can finally properly evaluate Weeden. The pick will also help the Browns replace Josh Cribbs, as Austin is dynamic in the return game.
Ansah fills a big need in Jacksonville.
The Cardinals were looking to trade down, and the Jaguars were excited to see Ziggy Ansah still on the board this late. Jacksonville picked up a 2014 1st by moving down from 2, and only gives up the 98th pick to move up from 12 to grab their highest-ranked player. New GM Dave Caldwell and HC Gus Bradley can afford to be patient and draft a raw player with huge upside, and they love Ansah enough to make sure the Jets and Bills don’t snatch him.
8. Panthers (From Bills in Draft Night Trade) – CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
The Bills are looking to trade down for two reasons: the player they want is a reach here and they need more draft capital to trade up later. The Panthers are the right target, as Carolina needs cornerbacks to compete in a high-octane division. The Panthers give up their 4th and 5th round picks (108 and 148) to grab Milliner.
9. Jets – OLB Barkevious Mingo, LSU
Rex Ryan is desperate for an edge rusher, and Mingo becomes the best pass rusher to wear green since John Abraham. The Jets try to trade down, but with so many teams trading up in front of them, find themselves without a chair when the music stops.
10. Titans – G Chance Warmack, Alabama
Chance Warmack makes so much sense here that you begin to wonder why it won’t happen. The Titans are the only team with a Hall of Fame offensive lineman at Head Coach (Mike Munchak) and OL Coach (Bruce Matthews). The team is built to run around Chris Johnson and now Shonn Greene; the Titans added Andy Levitre from Buffalo, and now fill the other guard spot (currently manned by journeyman Rob Turner) with the best run-blocking guard prospect in years.
11. Lions (From Chargers in Draft Night Trade) – CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida State
Detroit had Rhodes and Milliner even on their board, so they were happy to acquire some extra picks and grab Rhodes here to fix a pass defense that has struggled for over a decade.
12. Cardinals (From Jaguars (From Dolphins in Draft Night Trade) in Draft Night Trade) – G Jonathan Cooper, North Carolina
The Cardinals risk pays off, as the player they really target is Cooper. Arizona couldn’t justify taking the consensus #2 guard in the draft at 7, but Cooper is a better pass-blocker than Warmack and Arizona’s biggest problems on the line are on the interior.
13. Pittsburgh (From Jets (From Buccaneers in Darrelle Revis trade) in Draft Night Trade) – DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
The Steelers can’t risk waiting until 17 to grab the best nose tackle in the draft. Pittsburgh drafted Casey Hampton with the 19th pick in 2001, and the organization knows the value of a the man in the middle of a 3-4 defense. Pittsburgh hopes that Loutulelei can match Hampton’s decade-long stretch of strong play. The Steelers send their 4th and 6th rounders to move up from 17 to the Jets.
Manti Te'o can avoid media scrutiny for years in Buffalo.
Buffalo’s run defense has been invisible for years despite having the strength of the team arguably residing at defensive tackle. The real problem for the Bills is at linebacker, and Te’o can provide an immediate upgrade. Every year there’s a head-scratching pick early, and it’s safe to assume it will be from the Bills.
15. Saints – OLB Jarvis Jones, Georgia
Even after adding Victor Butler, the team is sorely lacking for a 3-4 pass rusher, and Rob Ryan is ecstatic to see Jones still on the board at fifteen. A perfect case of need meeting BPA.
16. Rams – S Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
The trade rush slows down as another case of BPA meeting need. Vaccaro is the best safety prospect in the draft while St. Louis is in dire need of an upgrade with Rodney McLeod and Darian Stewart currently penciled in as starters.
17. Vikings (From Jets (From Steelers in Draft Night Trade) in Draft Night Trade) – DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
The Vikings send the 23rd and 102nd picks to New York for the 17th and 215th slots, as Minnesota is ecstatic to see Richardson still on the board. Kevin Williams is a shell of his former self and 2013 should be his last year in Minnesota. Williams, Jared Allen, Brian Robison, and Everson Griffen are all free agents after the season, so the Vikings decide to jump Dallas to rebuild the line around Richardson.
18. Jaguars (From Cowboys in Draft Night Trade) – QB Geno Smith, West Virginia
With Richardson and Vaccaro snatched while Jerry Jones was in the on-deck circle, the Cowboys look to trade down. The Jaguars covet Smith, and jump the other QB-needy teams at the top of the second round by sending #33 and #63 for the 18th and 151st picks. The Blaine Gabbert era is over, and the Jaguars are happy to exist the first four rounds with Ansah, Smith, and the Dolphins 2014 1st rounder.
19. Giants – DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State
Osi Umenyiora is in Atlanta, Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka are now 30, and Chris Canty is in Baltimore. Tuck is a free agent after 2013, so Werner can be a rotational player this year and a starter in year two, much like Big Blue did with Jason Pierre-Paul.
20. Bears – ILB Alec Ogletree, Georgia
Were the Bears going to take Te’o? We’ll never know, but Ogletree allows them to replace Brian Urlacher. The offense was boosted with the acquisitions of Jermon Bushrod, Matt Slauson, and Martellus Bennett in free agency, making linebacker the biggest need for Chicago.
21. Bengals – S Matt Elam, Florida
Cincinnati desperately needs a strong safety, and Elam has the potential to be everything current Bengal Taylor Mays was supposed to be.
22. Bills (From Rams (From Redskins in Robert Griffin III trade) in Draft Night Trade) – QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
The worst-kept secret is that new HC Doug Marrone wants to reunite with his college quarterback. Buffalo is afraid the Jets are going to grab him at 23, and Jeff Fisher and Les Snead are happy to take the Bills’ 3rd round pick this year and their 2014 1st rounder, allowing the Rams maximum flexibility in 2014.
23. Jets (From Vikings in Draft Night Trade) – TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
After moving down twice, the Jets select the top tight end in the draft. There may not be quarterback in place — okay, there isn’t a quarterback in place — but the Jets exit the first round with a pass rusher, a huge target, two extra 4ths, and jumping up from the 7th to 6th rouds.
24. Colts – CB Desmond Trufant, Washington
GM Ryan Grigson patiently waited, and is rewarded when Trufan falls to the 24th slot. The Colts need to upgrade their secondary, and effectively use their first two picks (their second round selection was traded to Miami for Vontae Davis) to find their starting cornerbacks.
25. Vikings (From Seahawks in Percy Harvin trade) – DE, Cornellius Carradine, Florida State
Minnesota doubles down on the defensive line, as Tank Carradine and Richardson will help a pass rush that needs to get to Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, and Jay Cutler.
Is this Chip Kelly's quarterback?
The Eagles don’t want to risk the Jets or Raiders trading into the end of the first round to select Manuel, so Philadelphia sends picks 35 and 101 to Green Bay to get Chip Kelly his quarterback of the future. With the Raiders, Jets, and Cardinals all gun shy to chase another USC quarterback, Matt Barkley falls in the draft as the ghosts of Carson Palmer, Mark Sanchez, and Matt Leinart haunt him.
27. Texans – WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
A deep wide receiver class means the second wide receiver doesn’t come off the board until now. Houston gets to choose among Patterson, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Hunter, Robert Woods, and Keenan Allen, but the big-play potential of Patterson wins over Rick Smith. Playing alongside Arian Foster and Andre Johnson, Patterson won’t need to be a complete wide receiver right away to make an impact.
28. Broncos – DE Damontre Moore, Texas A&M
The Broncos go back to College Station to get a pass rusher, and Von Miller‘s former teammate will replace Elvis Dumervil. Denver’s already focusing on how to beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, and pressuring Tom Brady is Plan A.
29. Patriots – CB D.J. Hayden, Houston
Hayden nearly died last November from internal bleeding, but he’s rising up draft boards now. Entering the draft, New England has no one that can cover Wes Welker in a showdown against the Broncos, but Hayden has fluid hips, elite quickness, and the experience playing man coverage to line up against the team’s former star.
30. Falcons – CB Jamar Taylor, Boise State
While there were several intriguing prospects on the defensive line still available, the addition of Osi Umenyiora means cornerback is the bigger need for the Falcons. Thomas Dimitroff was considering trading up to get Xavier Rhodes, but couldn’t put a deal together; Taylor is a fine consolation prize.
31. 49ers – DE Margus Hunt, SMU
The rich get richer, as the 49ers find a potential replacement for Justin Smith in the 6-8 freak from Estonia. Hunt is one of the draft’s physical marvels: he nearly matched Dion Jordan in the 40-yard dash and broad jump while putting up 38 reps on the bench press, too. He’s an ideal fit for a 3-4 team, and will rotate with Ray McDonald in 2013 and be the long-term replacement for Smith.
32. Ravens – WR DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson
It’s tempting to write in a linebacker for the Ravens, but Baltimore just wrote made Joe Flacco a $100M man and need to give him another weapon now that Anquan Boldin is in San Francisco. Torrey Smith is one of the game’s best deep threats, and he’ll open up lots of room underneath for the second quickest receiver in the draft behin Tavon Austin. Flacco will always have accuracy issues, but getting the ball to Hopkins in space will help the Ravens keep the chains moving.