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Brad Oremland is a longtime commenter and a fellow football historian. Brad is also a senior NFL writer at Sports Central. There are few who have given as much thought to the history of quarterbacks and quarterback ranking systems as Brad has over the years. Today, he’s contributed this guest post, but also is asking for your feedback. So please, help Brad and help us, in the comments, with your thoughts.


In recent weeks, Football Perspective has hosted some lively discussions about the greatest quarterbacks of all time. I like to think my approach to these issues is balanced, but it begins with statistics. I am always looking for ways to improve my analysis, and Chase has graciously invited me to post the results of my statistical rating system for quarterbacks.

This is not my personal list of the best quarterbacks in history. My subjective list differs, at time significantly, and I’ll post that next month. The list below is purely statistical, with three notable limitations:

1. It measures regular-season statistics only.

2. It covers the years 1946-2014. The modern quarterback position didn’t really exist prior to the mid 1940s.

2b. QBs who played prior to 1946 are omitted, even if they continued to play after the end of World War II. I don’t want a ranking that shows Sammy Baugh 65th, since it’s missing the first decade of his career. Players like Baugh, Sid Luckman, and Bob Waterfield are deliberately excluded.

3. Only seasons in the NFL, AFL, and AAFC count toward these rankings.

My purpose in posting this list is to ask for help. There are a lot of smart readers and commenters at this site, and I want you to critique my results.

I’m not showing my work yet: I’m not looking for a critique of my process, but of my results. Who’s too high? Who’s too low? You can identify individual players, or patterns. Wherever you think I messed up, I want to hear about it. Please keep in mind, though, that this is purely a stat-based list. It doesn’t represent my opinion, and it’s not slanted toward or against individual players or teams.

But just because this system is unbiased, that doesn’t make it perfect. It is definitely not perfect. But I’m comfortable making subjective adjustments, and that may create blind spots that prevent me from improving the formula. I’m asking you to evaluate the list below and judge where you think it is counterintuitive or inaccurate.

Are players from the ’70s overrated? Are contemporary players underrated? What about players from good teams, and players from bad teams? Are running QBs overrated? Underrated? How about game managers vs. downfield bombers? Is the system fair to them? Are one-year wonders overrated? Are compilers overrated? Players who threw a lot of TDs, a lot of interceptions, players who got sacked a lot? Wherever you think the system is off, I’m eager for your feedback.

Hopefully you find this list interesting, and you can expect a fuller explanation of my rankings in the future, but in the meantime, I appreciate your input and assistance. I included each player’s numerical score, which I realize isn’t in context yet, but it can give you a more precise idea than a simple ranking. Troy Aikman, Donovan McNabb, and Joe Namath, for instance, are effectively tied. Below are the top 125 QBs of the modern era, as ranked by my stat-based system:

1.    Peyton Manning       51.83
2.    Dan Marino           45.73
3.    Fran Tarkenton       38.66
4.    Johnny Unitas        37.46
5.    Joe Montana          34.76
6.    Brett Favre          34.69
7.    Otto Graham          33.94
8.    Drew Brees           31.87
9.    Tom Brady            31.80
10.   Dan Fouts            30.52
11.   Steve Young          29.62
12.   John Elway           28.02
13.   Sonny Jurgensen      27.51
14.   Ken Anderson         27.45
15.   Norm Van Brocklin    26.47
16.   Y.A. Tittle          26.38
17.   Warren Moon          24.20
18.   John Brodie          23.35
19.   Roger Staubach       22.44
20.   Aaron Rodgers        20.41
21.   Boomer Esiason       19.95
22.   Roman Gabriel        19.11
23.   John Hadl            19.04
24.   Jim Kelly            18.99
25.   Bobby Layne          18.62
26.   Jim Hart             18.57
27.   Jim Everett          17.70
28.   Philip Rivers        17.65
29.   Kurt Warner          16.73
30.   Tony Romo            16.31
31.   Troy Aikman          15.96
32.   Donovan McNabb       15.94
33.   Joe Namath           15.93
34.   Bart Starr           15.74
35.   Ben Roethlisberger   15.61
36.   Randall Cunningham   15.42
37.   Len Dawson           15.35
38.   Terry Bradshaw       15.18
39.   Vinny Testaverde     15.10
40.   Rich Gannon          15.00
41.   Norm Snead           14.73
42.   Steve McNair         14.62
43.   Jeff Garcia          14.55
44.   Bert Jones           14.31
45.   Trent Green          14.30
46.   Charlie Conerly      14.23
47.   Daryle Lamonica      14.08
48.   Mark Brunell         13.73
49.   Joe Theismann        13.68
50.   Ken Stabler          13.60
51.   Drew Bledsoe         13.50
52.   Milt Plum            13.35
53.   Charley Johnson      13.34
54.   Phil Simms           13.07
55.   Billy Wade           12.90
56.   Bob Griese           12.41
57.   Dave Krieg           12.37
58.   Daunte Culpepper     12.359
59.   Craig Morton         12.357
60.   Steve DeBerg         12.23
61.   Brian Sipe           11.994
62.   Steve Grogan         11.987
63.   Bernie Kosar         11.98
64.   Billy Kilmer         11.97
65.   Neil Lomax           11.58
66.   Matt Ryan            11.08
67.   Joe Ferguson         11.02
68.   Ron Jaworski         10.983
69.   Earl Morrall         10.981
70.   Carson Palmer        10.97
71.   Eli Manning          10.80
72.   Tobin Rote           10.79
73.   Matt Hasselbeck      10.69
74.   Brad Johnson         10.50
75.   Jeff George          10.13
76.   Frank Ryan           10.04
77.   Don Meredith          9.84
78.   Tommy Kramer          9.81
79.   Mark Rypien           9.63
80.   Danny White           9.49
81.   Ken O'Brien           9.34
82.   Jim Zorn              9.28
83.   Greg Landry           9.201
84.   Steve Bartkowski      9.198
85.   Doug Williams         9.13
86.   Kerry Collins         8.95
87.   Jake Plummer          8.88
88.   George Blanda         8.83
89.   Bobby Hebert          8.78
90.   Matt Schaub           8.77
91.   Archie Manning        8.59
92.   Chris Chandler        8.57
93.   Johnny Lujack         8.47
94.   Jim Harbaugh          8.43
95.   Ed Brown              8.38
96.   Jim Plunkett          8.35
97.   Jim McMahon           8.16
98.   Neil O'Donnell        7.71
99.   Lynn Dickey           7.53
100.  Frankie Albert        7.51
101.  Chad Pennington       7.48
102.  Michael Vick          7.46
103.  Jeff Blake            7.40
104.  Marc Bulger           7.39
105.  Bill Kenney           7.37
106.  Jeff Hostetler        7.11
107.  Bill Nelsen           6.99
108.  Steve Beuerlein       6.97
109.  Jay Schroeder         6.87
110.  Jay Cutler            6.71
111.  Richard Todd          6.54
112.  Matthew Stafford      6.404
113.  Aaron Brooks          6.401
114.  Wade Wilson           6.31
115.  George Ratterman      6.30
116.  Elvis Grbac           6.29
117.  Chris Miller          6.25
118.  Scott Mitchell        6.19
119.  Cam Newton            6.02
120.  Stan Humphries        5.96
121.  Babe Parilli          5.90
122.  Doug Flutie           5.89
123.  Jake Delhomme         5.70
124.  Bobby Thomason        5.58
125.  Brian Griese          5.56

Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck are both over 5.0, and I expect them each to rank in or near the top 100 by this time next year. Both look to me like future Hall of Famers.

I know many of you are familiar with Chase’s stat-based ranking system. He and I use a lot of the same ideas. There are some players who are rated more accurately by Chase’s system than mine, and I believe some are rated better in my system than his. But I hope you’ll try to evaluate this list by what you know about the game, and not simply compared to a different methodology, even one as carefully refined as Chase’s.

I hope you find some value in the list, even though I haven’t yet explained its methodology, but in particular, I offer thanks in advance for any feedback you can offer.

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