Friend of the program Bryan Frye is back for another guest post. As regular readers know, Bryan operates his own fantastic site, http://www.thegridfe.com. You can view all of Bryan’s guest posts here, and follow him on twitter @LaverneusDingle.
Floating around the internet, there are copious metrics for measuring quarterback performance. Some are very basic (passing yards, completion rate), while others are quite complex (EPA, WPA). Some are open-source (passer rating, ANY/A), while others are proprietary (DVOA, Total QBR). It seems there is a stat to cover just about every aspect of QB play, so the last thing we need is another useless number.
Well, I didn’t get that memo.
Today, I’m going to look at a somewhat abstract measurement for career value, based on adjusted yards per attempt relative to league average. I prefer ANY/A and my own TAY/P (and the different iterations of both metrics), but gaps in the record books mean we can only go so far with either. [1]Pro-Football-Reference doesn’t have ANY/A prior to 1969. I don’t have TAY/P prior to 1991; even without including first down data, I can only go back to 1963 before I run out of complete sack … Continue reading With AY/A, we can go back to 1932, the very first season of the “official stat” era in the NFL.
The methodology is simple and straightforward. I took Pro Football Reference’s AY/A Index Scores for every quarterback with at least 1500 career pass attempts. If you are familiar with PFR’s advanced passing stats, you know they are based on three seasons’ worth of data (years n-1, n, and n+1), and a score of 100 represents league average output. [2]Except in 1932, when there is no year n-1, and the current year, when there is no n+1. To find the AY/A+ score itself, you simply multiply a player’s z-score by fifteen and add the product to 100. Using this knowledge, I reverse engineered the passing Index Scores in order to find the number of standard deviations above or below average each quarterback’s AY/A was. I then multiply that number by pass attempts to come up with an abstract career value metric. I also did this for replacement level, using one standard deviation below average as the baseline for replacement play.
The formulas:
Value over average = [(AY/A Index Score – 100)/15]*Attempts
Value over replacement = [(AY/A Index Score – 85)/15]*Attempts
Like I said, this isn’t forking any lightning in the realm of quarterback analysis. It’s just a quick and dirty way to approximate career productivity based on a well-known metric.
The Results
The table below shows the abstract career value of the 182 quarterbacks who met the 1000 attempt threshold. Read it thus: Peyton Manning played 266 career games and had 9380 pass attempts. His career AY/A+ score was 116. This gives him a total value of 10005 above average and 19385 above replacement (this is the metric by which the table is sorted). Note that the table below does list all 182 quarterbacks, but for ease of scrolling, only the top 25 are displayed by default. You can change that using the dropdown arrow on the left, or you can search for your favorite passer.
Rk | Quarterback | G | Att | AY/A+ | Val | Repl |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Peyton Manning | 266 | 9380 | 116 | 10005 | 19385 |
2 | Tom Brady | 225 | 7792 | 115 | 7792 | 15584 |
3 | Dan Marino | 242 | 8358 | 112 | 6686 | 15044 |
4 | Drew Brees | 217 | 8085 | 112 | 6468 | 14553 |
5 | Brett Favre | 302 | 10169 | 106 | 4068 | 14237 |
6 | Joe Montana | 192 | 5391 | 118 | 6469 | 11860 |
7 | Steve Young | 169 | 4149 | 125 | 6915 | 11064 |
8 | Fran Tarkenton | 246 | 6467 | 110 | 4311 | 10778 |
9 | Aaron Rodgers | 126 | 4047 | 124 | 6475 | 10522 |
10 | Ben Roethlisberger | 171 | 5423 | 114 | 5061 | 10484 |
11 | Dan Fouts | 181 | 5604 | 113 | 4857 | 10461 |
12 | John Elway | 234 | 7250 | 106 | 2900 | 10150 |
13 | Warren Moon | 208 | 6823 | 107 | 3184 | 10007 |
14 | Philip Rivers | 164 | 5339 | 113 | 4627 | 9966 |
15 | Johnny Unitas | 211 | 5186 | 111 | 3803 | 8989 |
16 | Tony Romo | 155 | 4331 | 116 | 4620 | 8951 |
17 | Kurt Warner | 124 | 4070 | 116 | 4341 | 8411 |
18 | Ken Anderson | 192 | 4475 | 113 | 3878 | 8353 |
19 | Jim Kelly | 160 | 4779 | 110 | 3186 | 7965 |
20 | Donovan McNabb | 167 | 5374 | 107 | 2508 | 7882 |
21 | Len Dawson | 211 | 3741 | 116 | 3990 | 7731 |
22 | Otto Graham | 126 | 2626 | 129 | 5077 | 7703 |
23 | Boomer Esiason | 187 | 5205 | 107 | 2429 | 7634 |
24 | Sonny Jurgensen | 218 | 4262 | 111 | 3125 | 7387 |
25 | Roger Staubach | 131 | 2958 | 122 | 4338 | 7296 |
26 | Carson Palmer | 160 | 5443 | 105 | 1814 | 7257 |
27 | Dave Krieg | 213 | 5311 | 105 | 1770 | 7081 |
28 | Y.A. Tittle | 204 | 4395 | 109 | 2637 | 7032 |
29 | Phil Simms | 164 | 4647 | 107 | 2169 | 6816 |
30 | Mark Brunell | 193 | 4640 | 107 | 2165 | 6805 |
31 | Trent Green | 120 | 3740 | 112 | 2992 | 6732 |
32 | Sammy Baugh | 165 | 2995 | 118 | 3594 | 6589 |
33 | Roman Gabriel | 183 | 4498 | 106 | 1799 | 6297 |
34 | Eli Manning | 185 | 6227 | 100 | 0 | 6227 |
35 | Rich Gannon | 157 | 4206 | 107 | 1963 | 6169 |
36 | Steve McNair | 161 | 4544 | 105 | 1515 | 6059 |
37 | Craig Morton | 207 | 3786 | 109 | 2272 | 6058 |
38 | Randall Cunningham | 161 | 4289 | 106 | 1716 | 6005 |
39 | Troy Aikman | 165 | 4715 | 104 | 1257 | 5972 |
40 | Bob Griese | 161 | 3429 | 111 | 2515 | 5944 |
41 | John Hadl | 224 | 4687 | 104 | 1250 | 5937 |
42 | Jim Everett | 158 | 4923 | 103 | 985 | 5908 |
43 | Jeff Garcia | 125 | 3676 | 109 | 2206 | 5882 |
44 | Drew Bledsoe | 194 | 6717 | 98 | -896 | 5821 |
45 | Vinny Testaverde | 233 | 6701 | 98 | -893 | 5808 |
46 | Matt Ryan | 126 | 4530 | 104 | 1208 | 5738 |
47 | Terry Bradshaw | 168 | 3901 | 107 | 1820 | 5721 |
48 | Bart Starr | 196 | 3149 | 112 | 2519 | 5668 |
49 | Norm Van Brocklin | 140 | 2895 | 114 | 2702 | 5597 |
50 | Jim Hart | 201 | 5076 | 101 | 338 | 5414 |
51 | Daunte Culpepper | 105 | 3199 | 110 | 2133 | 5332 |
52 | Matt Hasselbeck | 209 | 5330 | 100 | 0 | 5330 |
53 | Neil Lomax | 108 | 3153 | 110 | 2102 | 5255 |
54 | Joe Theismann | 167 | 3602 | 106 | 1441 | 5043 |
55 | Jeff George | 131 | 3967 | 104 | 1058 | 5025 |
56 | Ron Jaworski | 188 | 4117 | 103 | 823 | 4940 |
57 | Chris Chandler | 180 | 4005 | 103 | 801 | 4806 |
58 | Ken O'Brien | 129 | 3602 | 105 | 1201 | 4803 |
59 | Matt Schaub | 141 | 3271 | 107 | 1526 | 4797 |
60 | John Brodie | 201 | 4491 | 101 | 299 | 4790 |
61 | Joe Namath | 140 | 3762 | 104 | 1003 | 4765 |
62 | Bobby Layne | 175 | 3700 | 104 | 987 | 4687 |
63 | Steve Beuerlein | 147 | 3328 | 106 | 1331 | 4659 |
64 | Jay Cutler | 134 | 4354 | 101 | 290 | 4644 |
65 | Brad Johnson | 177 | 4326 | 101 | 288 | 4614 |
66 | Steve Bartkowski | 129 | 3456 | 105 | 1152 | 4608 |
67 | Steve Grogan | 149 | 3593 | 104 | 958 | 4551 |
68 | Neil O'Donnell | 125 | 3229 | 106 | 1292 | 4521 |
69 | Bernie Kosar | 126 | 3365 | 105 | 1122 | 4487 |
70 | Brian Sipe | 125 | 3439 | 104 | 917 | 4356 |
71 | Steve DeBerg | 206 | 5024 | 98 | -670 | 4354 |
72 | Daryle Lamonica | 151 | 2601 | 110 | 1734 | 4335 |
73 | Danny White | 166 | 2950 | 107 | 1377 | 4327 |
74 | Earl Morrall | 255 | 2689 | 109 | 1613 | 4302 |
75 | Ken Stabler | 184 | 3793 | 102 | 506 | 4299 |
76 | Bert Jones | 102 | 2551 | 110 | 1701 | 4252 |
77 | Marc Bulger | 96 | 3171 | 105 | 1057 | 4228 |
78 | Kerry Collins | 198 | 6261 | 95 | -2087 | 4174 |
79 | Russell Wilson | 64 | 1735 | 121 | 2429 | 4164 |
80 | Sid Luckman | 128 | 1744 | 120 | 2325 | 4069 |
81 | Billy Kilmer | 170 | 2984 | 105 | 995 | 3979 |
82 | Chad Pennington | 89 | 2471 | 109 | 1483 | 3954 |
83 | Jim Harbaugh | 177 | 3918 | 100 | 0 | 3918 |
84 | Charley Johnson | 165 | 3392 | 102 | 452 | 3844 |
85 | Charlie Conerly | 161 | 2833 | 105 | 944 | 3777 |
86 | Jim Plunkett | 157 | 3701 | 100 | 0 | 3701 |
87 | Michael Vick | 143 | 3217 | 102 | 429 | 3646 |
88 | Joe Ferguson | 186 | 4519 | 97 | -904 | 3615 |
89 | Cam Newton | 78 | 2419 | 107 | 1129 | 3548 |
90 | Joe Flacco | 122 | 4070 | 98 | -543 | 3527 |
91 | Mark Rypien | 104 | 2613 | 105 | 871 | 3484 |
92 | Norm Snead | 178 | 4353 | 97 | -871 | 3482 |
93 | George Blanda | 340 | 4007 | 98 | -534 | 3473 |
94 | Jeff Blake | 119 | 3241 | 101 | 216 | 3457 |
95 | Matthew Stafford | 93 | 3691 | 99 | -246 | 3445 |
96 | Don Meredith | 104 | 2308 | 107 | 1077 | 3385 |
97 | Jay Schroeder | 118 | 2808 | 103 | 562 | 3370 |
98 | Aaron Brooks | 93 | 2963 | 102 | 395 | 3358 |
99 | Lynn Dickey | 152 | 3125 | 101 | 208 | 3333 |
100 | Jake Delhomme | 103 | 2932 | 102 | 391 | 3323 |
101 | Jeff Hostetler | 152 | 2338 | 106 | 935 | 3273 |
102 | Frank Ryan | 126 | 2133 | 108 | 1138 | 3271 |
103 | Bill Kenney | 106 | 2430 | 105 | 810 | 3240 |
104 | Greg Landry | 146 | 2300 | 106 | 920 | 3220 |
105 | Tommy Kramer | 129 | 3651 | 98 | -487 | 3164 |
106 | Archie Manning | 151 | 3642 | 98 | -486 | 3156 |
107 | Alex Smith | 126 | 3619 | 98 | -483 | 3136 |
108 | Jim McMahon | 119 | 2573 | 103 | 515 | 3088 |
109 | Brian Griese | 93 | 2796 | 101 | 186 | 2982 |
110 | Jim Zorn | 140 | 3149 | 99 | -210 | 2939 |
111 | Bobby Hebert | 118 | 3121 | 99 | -208 | 2913 |
112 | Jake Plummer | 143 | 4350 | 95 | -1450 | 2900 |
113 | Gus Frerotte | 147 | 3106 | 99 | -207 | 2899 |
114 | David Garrard | 86 | 2281 | 104 | 608 | 2889 |
115 | Babe Parilli | 189 | 3330 | 98 | -444 | 2886 |
116 | Jack Kemp | 122 | 3073 | 99 | -205 | 2868 |
117 | Billy Wade | 128 | 2523 | 102 | 336 | 2859 |
118 | Gary Danielson | 101 | 1932 | 106 | 773 | 2705 |
119 | Doug Williams | 88 | 2507 | 101 | 167 | 2674 |
120 | Bill Nelsen | 90 | 1905 | 106 | 762 | 2667 |
121 | Jon Kitna | 141 | 4442 | 94 | -1777 | 2665 |
122 | Andy Dalton | 77 | 2497 | 101 | 166 | 2663 |
123 | Elvis Grbac | 105 | 2445 | 101 | 163 | 2608 |
124 | Stan Humphries | 88 | 2516 | 100 | 0 | 2516 |
125 | Chris Miller | 98 | 2892 | 98 | -386 | 2506 |
126 | Wade Wilson | 125 | 2428 | 100 | 0 | 2428 |
127 | Milt Plum | 129 | 2419 | 100 | 0 | 2419 |
128 | Tom Flores | 106 | 1715 | 106 | 686 | 2401 |
129 | Tobin Rote | 149 | 2907 | 97 | -581 | 2326 |
130 | Doug Flutie | 92 | 2151 | 101 | 143 | 2294 |
131 | Bob Waterfield | 91 | 1617 | 106 | 647 | 2264 |
132 | Frankie Albert | 90 | 1564 | 106 | 626 | 2190 |
133 | Scott Mitchell | 99 | 2346 | 99 | -156 | 2190 |
134 | Erik Kramer | 83 | 2299 | 99 | -153 | 2146 |
135 | Ed Brown | 154 | 1987 | 101 | 132 | 2119 |
136 | Bill Munson | 107 | 1982 | 101 | 132 | 2114 |
137 | Tony Eason | 90 | 1564 | 105 | 521 | 2085 |
138 | Jason Campbell | 90 | 2518 | 97 | -504 | 2014 |
139 | Kyle Orton | 87 | 2712 | 96 | -723 | 1989 |
140 | Richard Todd | 119 | 2967 | 95 | -989 | 1978 |
141 | Andrew Luck | 55 | 2106 | 99 | -140 | 1966 |
142 | Rodney Peete | 104 | 2346 | 97 | -469 | 1877 |
143 | Eddie LeBaron | 134 | 1796 | 100 | 0 | 1796 |
144 | Tony Banks | 96 | 2356 | 96 | -628 | 1728 |
145 | Ryan Tannehill | 64 | 2248 | 96 | -599 | 1649 |
146 | Cotton Davidson | 111 | 1752 | 99 | -117 | 1635 |
147 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 113 | 3473 | 92 | -1852 | 1621 |
148 | Charlie Batch | 81 | 1604 | 100 | 0 | 1604 |
149 | Jay Fiedler | 76 | 1717 | 99 | -114 | 1603 |
150 | Mike Livingston | 91 | 1751 | 97 | -350 | 1401 |
151 | Bubby Brister | 99 | 2212 | 94 | -885 | 1327 |
152 | Byron Leftwich | 60 | 1605 | 97 | -321 | 1284 |
153 | Don Majkowski | 90 | 1905 | 95 | -635 | 1270 |
154 | Steve Bono | 88 | 1701 | 96 | -454 | 1247 |
155 | Mike Tomczak | 185 | 2337 | 93 | -1091 | 1246 |
156 | Matt Cassel | 100 | 2574 | 92 | -1373 | 1201 |
157 | Marc Wilson | 126 | 2081 | 93 | -971 | 1110 |
158 | Sam Bradford | 63 | 2292 | 92 | -1222 | 1070 |
159 | Josh McCown | 77 | 1956 | 93 | -913 | 1043 |
160 | Eric Hipple | 102 | 1546 | 95 | -515 | 1031 |
161 | Dan Pastorini | 140 | 3055 | 90 | -2037 | 1018 |
162 | Vince Ferragamo | 75 | 1615 | 94 | -646 | 969 |
163 | Josh Freeman | 62 | 2048 | 92 | -1092 | 956 |
164 | Kordell Stewart | 125 | 2358 | 91 | -1415 | 943 |
165 | Trent Dilfer | 130 | 3172 | 89 | -2326 | 846 |
166 | Tim Couch | 62 | 1714 | 92 | -914 | 800 |
167 | David Carr | 94 | 2267 | 90 | -1511 | 756 |
168 | Mark Sanchez | 75 | 2267 | 89 | -1662 | 605 |
169 | Derek Anderson | 68 | 1543 | 90 | -1029 | 514 |
170 | Billy Joe Tolliver | 79 | 1707 | 89 | -1252 | 455 |
171 | Rex Grossman | 54 | 1562 | 89 | -1145 | 417 |
172 | Chad Henne | 64 | 1954 | 88 | -1563 | 391 |
173 | Frank Tripucka | 75 | 1745 | 88 | -1396 | 349 |
174 | Dave Brown | 73 | 1634 | 88 | -1307 | 327 |
175 | Mike Pagel | 132 | 1509 | 86 | -1408 | 101 |
176 | Kyle Boller | 67 | 1519 | 83 | -1722 | -203 |
177 | Jack Trudeau | 67 | 1644 | 83 | -1863 | -219 |
178 | Mike Phipps | 119 | 1799 | 83 | -2039 | -240 |
179 | Mark Malone | 73 | 1648 | 82 | -1978 | -330 |
180 | Joey Harrington | 81 | 2538 | 82 | -3046 | -508 |
181 | Rick Mirer | 80 | 2043 | 81 | -2588 | -545 |
I normally like to point out a few curiosities I notice in the data, but I’d rather just present the numbers and leave the comments to the readers. What sticks out to you? Oh, and one note: back in 2006, Chase did some back-of-the-envelope calculations that had Rick Mirer as the worst quarterback of all time. 10 years later, not much has changed.
References
↑1 | Pro-Football-Reference doesn’t have ANY/A prior to 1969. I don’t have TAY/P prior to 1991; even without including first down data, I can only go back to 1963 before I run out of complete sack data. |
---|---|
↑2 | Except in 1932, when there is no year n-1, and the current year, when there is no n+1. |