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Bryan Frye, owner and operator of the great site http://www.thegridfe.com/, is back for another guest post. You can also view all of Bryan’s guest posts at Football Perspective at this link, and follow him on twitter @LaverneusDingle.


Last week, I posted a quarterback performance metric that accounts for both passing and rushing. The base stat, Total Adjusted Yards per Play, is easy to comprehend and easy to figure out yourself with basic box score data. My original post only included performance that occurred during or after the 2002 season, because I don’t have spike and kneel data going back further than that. For the sake of consistency, I wanted to maintain the same parameters when calculating career values.

Before we get into the tables, I’d like to first briefly talk about what these numbers are and what they are not.

The formula, in case you forgot:

[Yards + Touchdowns*20 – Interceptions*45 – Fumbles*25 + First Downs*9] / Plays, where

Yards = pass yards + rush yards – sack yards + yards lost on kneels

Touchdowns = pass touchdowns + rush touchdowns

First Downs = (pass first downs + rush first downs) – touchdowns

Plays = pass attempts + sacks + rush attempts – spikes – kneels

The TAY/P stat (and the values based on it) IS a simple, numeric representation of quarterback performance, both passing and rushing. The formula knows only the numbers that are plugged into it. In this regard, it is like every other quarterback rating on the planet – even the most advanced ones.

The TAY/P stat IS NOT a measure of overall quarterback talent or ability. It doesn’t account for strength of schedule, strength of teammates, strength of coaching, or the effects of weather. It doesn’t account for intangibles, whatever you believe those to be (there is no leadership, courage, or moxie component). [1]If you want to add a dash of Winnersauce to the formula, multiply it by win percentage or something. I don’t know. Keep reworking the formula until it spits out the outcome you were hoping for.

I hope that cleared some things up for both regular readers and the stat-dubious visitors. Let’s look at some numbers.

The first table contains the raw data that went into the ratings. [2]Only players with 900 action plays are included. This number is somewhat arbitrary, but it is based on three seasons of 300 plays apiece. If you want to see number for guys with fewer plays, just ask. If you are interested in reading it, here’s how: Aaron Brooks completed 1248 of 2211 passes for 14915 yards, 88 touchdowns, and 64 interceptions. He took 170 sacks, on which he lost 1030 yards. He spiked the ball 11 times and gained 719 passing first downs. He had 241 carries for 1006 yards and 10 touchdowns. He had 47 fumbles. He took 31 kneels, losing 29 yards in the process. He picked up 79 first downs on the ground. All 76 players are listed in the table, which is fully sortable and searchable.

As before, the above table is merely a reference point. It is offered without further comment.

The second table represents the adjusted numbers for the 76 qualifying players since 2002. It is sorted by value above replacement, but you can search and sort to your heart’s content. Read the table thus: Peyton Manning turned 7134 plays into 52,453 yards, 430 touchdowns, and 2786 first downs. This comes to 73997 total adjusted yards at 10.37 per play. For his career, he has been 2.56 TAY/P above average and produced 18291 TAY of relative value. He has been 4.13 TAY/P above replacement and produced 29432 TAY of replacement value.

Some brief commentary…

  • Statistically, Drew Brees and Tom Brady have been much closer than most people probably realize. [3]I can’t imagine why people think Brady is so much better. Brady’s stats are superior on a per play basis, and Brees’ advantage in volume is the only thing giving him more replacement value. Brady still leads Brees in value over average, despite seeing over 500 fewer action plays.
  • Once again, incorporating first downs pads Peyton Manning’s numbers significantly. Removing those from the equation moves Rodgers to the top of the TAY/P charts.
  • Only three below-replacement-level quarterbacks were allowed to be involved in more than 900 plays. Kyle Boller was given nearly 1800 chances to prove his mettle.
  • Neglecting stats accrued prior to 2002 really helps Rich Gannon in this exercise. What a weird career arc.
  • On the other hand, neglecting pre-2002 stats really hurts Kurt Warner. Showing up between Colin Kaepernick and Michael Vick isn’t something you want from a pocket passer. [4]In the TAY/P Ov Avg column, that is.
  • When you sort by TAY/P Over Average, Trent Green once again pops up in esteemed company. He’s no Hall of Famer, but he deserves a little more recognition than he gets (and probably a little less than I give him).

I could go on, but I’m more interested in what you have to say.

References

References
1 If you want to add a dash of Winnersauce to the formula, multiply it by win percentage or something. I don’t know. Keep reworking the formula until it spits out the outcome you were hoping for.
2 Only players with 900 action plays are included. This number is somewhat arbitrary, but it is based on three seasons of 300 plays apiece. If you want to see number for guys with fewer plays, just ask.
3 I can’t imagine why people think Brady is so much better.
4 In the TAY/P Ov Avg column, that is.
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