Munir Mohamed, a reader of Football Perspective, is back for another guest post. And I thank him for it. You can read all of Munir’s posts here.

---

How do the Broncos stack up with the best playoff defenses?

The Broncos just capped off a run that saw the defense carry Peyton Manning and a below-average offense to a Super Bowl title. Denver held the highest scoring team in the league to just 10 points in the Super Bowl. As a result, debate ensued as to where the Broncos ranked among other great Super Bowl winning defenses. And just last week, Chase looked at the net points allowed by each Super Bowl champion.

Today, I will compare the 2015 Broncos against five other Super Bowl champions since 1985 that are known for their defense: ^[1]Okay, maybe four other Super Bowl winning teams known for their defense and one team that should be. the 1985 Bears, 1991 Redskins, 2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers, and 2013 Seahawks. The comparisons will cover three main categories: Passing Defense (ANY/A allowed), Rushing Defense (Adjusted Yards per Carry allowed, which gives 20 yards for each rushing touchdown), and fumbles forced. The stats below are adjusted relative to each opponent’s regular season average. This helps teams like the Broncos, who faced a difficult schedule featuring three pro-bowl quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, and Cam Newton. ^[2]Note each of these defenses played 3 playoff games other than Baltimore. The Ravens dominance over 4 games makes what the team did more impressive, but I thought it also gave them an unfair … Continue reading

Run Defense

Here’s how to read the table below. Chicago faced 51 rushing attempts and allowed 125 rushing yards (2.45 YPC allowed) with no touchdowns (therefore, 2.45 AYPC). The teams Chicago faced averaged ^[3]Using a weighted average. 4.78 YPC during the regular season, so Chicago’s run defense was 2.33 AYPC above expectation. Over 51 carries, that means Chicago’s rush defense allowed 119 yards fewer than the average defense (2.33 x 51). Here, negative grades are better, so Chicago wins this category.

In case the above numbers don’t make it clear, the ’85 Bears run defense was truly spectacular in the postseason. The Bears held Hall of Famer Eric Dickerson to just 47 yards rushing, and then held Pro Bowler Craig James to just 5 carries for 1 yard in the Super Bowl. The Bears defensive performance against the Patriots might have been the most impressive playoff defensive performance ever. The Bears allowed just 123 yards total in the game. By the time the Patriots were down 44-3, New England had just 26 yards total of Offense.

The Broncos run defense ranked 5^th out of the 6 teams here, because both Carolina and Pittsburgh had rushing performances above expectation. The Broncos three rushing touchdowns allowed was also the highest in the sample.

Pass Defense

The 2000 Ravens had an incredible run defense in the regular season that overshadowed a very good but not historically elite pass defense. Well, in the postseason, the Ravens pass defense produced some incredible statistics, allowing just 0.74 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt on 175 dropbacks. The four teams Baltimore played in the playoffs had a weighted average of 6.02 ANY/A during the regular season, giving Baltimore’s 694 adjusted net yards of value added.

For a team known for its historically dominant run defense, it’s hard to overstate how incredible it is that Baltimore allowed zero passing touchdowns and forced ten interceptions in the postseason. The Ravens pass defense faced a tough schedule that featured 4 top 10 passing teams by ANY/A. If you don’t pro-rate Baltimore’s pass defensive numbers downward for the extra game, the Ravens were at an incredible -925!

One side note: I won’t argue if you want to place an asterisk here because Pro Bowler and passer rating leader Brian Griese — who was part of the most productive quadruplet in history — missed the playoff game. And in the AFC Championship Game, an injured shoulder cost Rich Gannon part of the game.

But the Ravens beatdown of the Giants in the Super Bowl is what carries the day for Baltimore. That game the Ravens allowed 324 fewer adjusted net passing yards relative to the Giants regular season average. That was the best passing defense performance among these defenses. In fact, Kerry Collins’ performance was ranked as the worst ever for a playoff game even after adjusting for Baltimore’s strong pass defense.

The Broncos pass defense also shined in the playoffs. They held the Panthers to -167 adjusted net passing yards below expectation. That is impressive, but that only ranks as the 10^th  (out of 19) best game in this incredibly talent sample. For what it’s worth, Denver’s performance against the Patriots ranked even better. The Patriots were held to -207 adjusted net yards below expectation. What really stands out is Denver’s lack of interceptions (tied for last), which hurts them in comparison to the other defenses. The Broncos had only three, which pales in comparison to the 2000 Ravens and 1991 Redskins (ten each). Obviously era plays a part here, but if we’re pickin’ nits among the best defenses ever, that’s a reasonable thing to point out.

Fumbles

Since fumbles occur on both rushing and passing plays, I decided to just separate them into a third category.

The 1991 Redskins run away in the fumbles category after forcing 12 fumbles in 3 games. The 1985 Bears did force 11 fumbles, but that was in an era that was friendlier to fumbles.  The average Bears opponent had 36 regular season fumbles, while Washington’s opponents averaged just 23 fumbles. For those more focused on fumble recoveries rather than fumbles forced, the Bears were fortunate to recover 7 out of 11 fumbles while the Redskins recovered just 4 out of 12 fumbles.

The Broncos finished 2^nd in this category based on facing a tough schedule (3 of the top 5 in fewest fumbles). The 2015 Carolina Panthers had 12 fumbles in the regular season, fewest in the NFL. In Super Bowl 50, the Broncos forced 4 fumbles against them, including two by Super Bowl MVP Von Miller.

Individual Games

Washington’s performance in Super Bowl XXVI ranked as the best defensive game by over 100 yards. The Redskins pass defense held the Bills to the 2^nd worst pass performance in this sample. Thurman Thomas, who led the NFL with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage, was held to a total of 40 yards. One reason why this game has been forgotten historically is because Washington allowed 2 garbage time touchdowns in the 4^th quarter after leading 37-10. Up to that point, the Bills were held to -1.24 ANY/A, 24 yards rushing on 15 carries (1.6 YPC), and had 6 fumbles! Yes, Buffalo then produced two touchdown drives. I leave it up to the reader to decide, but those two touchdowns could be the difference between the Washington’s 1991 team being in the greatest team ever conversation and being (to the general public, at least) more of a historical footnote.

The Broncos Super Bowl performance ranked as the 8^th best in this sample. Denver’s divisional round game against the Steelers is the only game in this sample that saw the opponent rack up more yards than expected. And it’s worth noting that Pittsburgh went above expectation for passing and rushing despite having the team’s top quarterback, running back, and wide receiver injured. That was a high variance game: in 6 of Pittsburgh’s 12 offensive drives ^[4]Excluding the 13th drive, where the Steelers took over with less than a minute remaining., the Steelers gained 10 or fewer yards; on the other hand, Pittsburgh had a remarkable number of big plays, including three of over 40 yards and eight of over 20 yards.

Putting It All Together ^[5]Again, keep in mind that the 2000 Ravens yards below expectations numbers were pro-rated to 3 games due to the fact that they were the only defense on this list to play 4 games. Without that, 2000 … Continue reading

Washington’s 1991 team — one of the greatest overall teams in NFL history — ranks #1 based on the team’s performance in all 3 categories. The 2000 Ravens would have dominated if the comparison was only pass and rush defense, but they forced 9.5 fewer fumbles relative to expectation compared to the ’91 Redskins. That Washington team forced 22 fumbles + interceptions in only three games, which ranks among the best ever in the Superbowl era.

The 2013 Seahawks don’t fare well in this comparison. Surprisingly, their pass defense ranks last among this group. They shut down the highest scoring offense in history in the Super Bowl, but that ranked as the 7^th best pass defense performance due to just 1 sack for 1 yard (and, to some extent, some garbage time passing yards). The Seahawks also had just 4 sacks all postseason, while each of the other five defenses were in double digits.

The 2015 Broncos performed great in the playoffs: that much is obvious to anyone who watched this postseason. And it’s equally clear that Denver’s defense wasn’t just great, but historically great. That said, among the upper crust playoff defenses of the past 31 years, Denver ranks only 5^th among this group. Ultimately, the Broncos were held back by the game against Pittsburgh. Denver fielded a great defense that should rank in the 2^nd tier historically among playoff defenses. With one more great performance, they would have deserved to be ranked with the greatest playoff defenses of the modern era.

Thank you for reading, and please leave your thoughts in the comments.