Guest Post: Introducing Marginal Yards After the Catch, Part III

by Chase Stuart on November 3, 2014

Adam Steele is back for his third guest post in his Marginal YAC series.

In my two previous two posts, I introduced Marginal YAC and Marginal Air Yards. Today, I’m posting the career mYAC and mAir for the 96 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 pass attempts from 1992-2013. There’s a lot of data here, so I’ll let the readers do most of the commentary.

Here is a table of career Marginal YAC. The “Per 300” column is the rate of mYAC per 300 completions, or roughly equivalent to one full season. And on a “per season” basis, no quarterback benefited more from YAC than Steve Young, who also had four top-40 seasons.

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Quarterback	Career	Rank	Per300	Rank	Att	Comp	Yards	YAC	YAC/C	YAC %
Brett Favre	2338	1	111	12	10165	6300	71838	33966	5.39	47.3
Donovan McNabb	1852	2	175	5	5374	3170	37276	17953	5.66	48.2
Tom Brady	1822	3	131	10	6572	4170	49067	23403	5.61	47.7
Steve Young	1620	4	245	1	2961	1982	24266	11440	5.77	47.1
Philip Rivers	1418	5	162	6	4078	2629	32221	15465	5.88	48
Trent Green	1371	6	185	4	3667	2228	27950	12364	5.55	44.2
Kurt Warner	1023	7	117	11	3994	2624	31940	14321	5.46	44.8
Aaron Rodgers	987	8	155	7	2896	1910	23868	11314	5.92	47.4
Jeff Blake	887	9	152	8	3092	1746	20751	9661	5.53	46.6
Boomer Esiason	784	10	193	3	2105	1216	13656	6798	5.59	49.8

Showing 1 to 10 of 96 entries

Next up is career Marginal Air Yards. “Per 500” is the rate of mAir per 500 attempts. In this category, Peyton Manning is king.

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Quarterback	Career	Rank	Per500	Rank	Att	Comp	Yards	AirYds	Com %	Air/C	Air/A	Air %
Peyton Manning	5608	1	332	1	8452	5532	64964	37906	65.5%	6.85	4.48	58.3
Ben Roethlisberger	2539	2	292	2	4346	2749	34105	19076	63.3%	6.94	4.39	55.9
Kurt Warner	2320	3	290	3	3994	2624	31940	17619	65.7%	6.71	4.41	55.2
Tony Romo	1913	4	253	7	3775	2439	29565	16184	64.6%	6.64	4.29	54.7
Carson Palmer	1801	5	192	14	4682	2930	33739	19684	62.6%	6.72	4.2	58.3
Eli Manning	1770	6	177	21	5008	2929	35345	20818	58.5%	7.11	4.16	58.9
Aaron Rodgers	1654	7	286	5	2896	1910	23868	12554	66%	6.57	4.33	52.6
Mark Brunell	1586	8	177	19	4485	2672	31247	18904	59.6%	7.07	4.21	60.5
Chris Chandler	1493	9	220	9	3393	2005	24555	14656	59.1%	7.31	4.32	59.7
Philip Rivers	1367	10	168	23	4078	2629	32221	16756	64.5%	6.37	4.11	52

Showing 1 to 10 of 96 entries

This table puts mAir and mYAC side-by-side for comparison. The “Total Diff” column is mAir – mYAC while “Rate Diff” is mAir/500 attempts – mYAC/300 completions. For the Differential stats, please note that a negative number isn’t necessarily bad; it just means the QB contributed more to his team with YAC than he did with Air Yards.

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Quarterback	Att	mAir	Rank	mYAC	Rank	Air/500	Rank	YAC/300	Rank	Tot Diff	Rank	Rate Diff	Rank
Brett Favre	10165	-1335	94	2338	1	-66	70	111	12	-3673	96	-177	79
Peyton Manning	8452	5608	1	-1342	96	332	1	-73	76	6949	1	404	2
Drew Brees	6772	1289	12	490	18	95	36	33	36	799	25	62	42
Drew Bledsoe	6651	303	41	-723	86	23	49	-57	68	1026	21	80	40
Tom Brady	6572	589	32	1822	3	45	44	131	10	-1233	87	-86	68
Kerry Collins	5991	-387	72	-125	58	-32	63	-11	50	-262	62	-21	57
Donovan McNabb	5374	-1223	89	1852	2	-114	79	175	5	-3076	95	-289	89
Eli Manning	5008	1770	6	-905	89	177	21	-93	80	2675	3	269	9
Matt Hasselbeck	4989	57	50	-214	66	6	50	-21	53	270	44	27	47
Vinny Testaverde	4798	242	42	468	19	25	48	50	26	-226	61	-25	58

Showing 1 to 10 of 96 entries

This final table presents a quick comparison of the HoF and potential HoF quarterbacks covered in my study. I purposely excluded Dan Marino, John Elway, and Warren Moon, because a significant portion of their careers came before 1992 when this data started being tracked.

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Quarterback	Att	Air/500	Rank	YAC/300	Rank	Rate Diff	Rank
Peyton Manning	8452	332	1	-73	9	404	1
Jim Kelly	2217	273	5	-109	11	382	2
Eli Manning	5008	177	7	-93	10	269	3
Troy Aikman	3660	154	9	-114	12	268	4
Ben Roethlisberger	4346	292	2	58	7	235	5
Kurt Warner	3994	290	3	117	5	173	6
Aaron Rodgers	2896	286	4	155	3	131	7
Drew Brees	6772	95	10	33	8	62	8
Philip Rivers	4078	168	8	162	2	6	9
Steve Young	2961	206	6	245	1	-39	10
Tom Brady	6572	45	11	131	4	-86	11
Brett Favre	10165	-66	12	111	6	-177	12

The first thing that hits me is the lack of correlation between Air Yards and YAC among the upper crust QB’s, indicating a variety of different styles. Peyton, Eli, Aikman, and Kelly have done all their damage with high air yardage, coming at the expense of YAC production. Brady and Favre were successful by gobbling up YAC at the expense of gaining much through the air. Young, Warner, Rodgers, and Rivers have displayed an impressive proclivity for producing high air yards and YAC, while sacrificing sacks (Young, Rodgers) or interceptions (Warner). At least from a statistical perspective, Philip Rivers has no real weaknesses in his game, which makes him a clear HoF’er in my book. Roethlisberger has posted very high air yardage and above average YAC, but has lost significant value with his terrible sack rate. Brees has been moderately above average with both air yards and YAC, but his rates look more impressive in the context of his annual 650+ attempt seasons. What stands out to you guys?

Tagged as: Adam Steele, Air Yards, Guest Posts, YAC

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