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Guest Post: Marginal YAC, 2015 in Review

Adam Steele is back to discuss Marginal YAC, this time in the context of the 2015 season. You can view all of Adam’s posts here.


Marginal Air Yards: 2015 Year In Review

Today I will be updating my Marginal Air Yards metric for the now completed 2015 season. New readers who aren’t familiar with Marginal Air Yards can get up to speed by reading my three part intro-series and 2014’s year in review.

There were 44 quarterbacks who threw at least 100 passes in 2015, and they are ranked by mAir below:

RkQuarterbackTeammAirmYACAttAirYdsYACAir/CYAC/CAir/AAir %
1Carson PalmerARI810-52537289717748.475.195.3962%
2Ben RoethlisbergerPIT646-234469246914697.744.615.2662.7%
3Jameis WinstonTB448-152535252815148.14.854.7362.5%
4Cam NewtonCAR442-114496237014678.014.964.7861.8%
5Tyrod TaylorBUF421-155380189811377.844.74.9962.5%
6Russell WilsonSEA32961483220618186.715.534.5754.8%
7Blake BortlesJAC294-118606265017787.465.014.3759.8%
8Andy DaltonCIN283105386178314676.995.754.6254.9%
9Matt RyanATL278-247614266519266.554.734.3458%
10Brian HoyerHOU263-28736916979097.584.064.665.1%
11Marcus MariotaTEN196-44370163411847.15.154.4258%
12Kirk CousinsWAS147-116543225819085.965.034.1654.2%
13A.J. McCarronCIN64-951195273276.674.144.4361.7%
14Drew BreesNO27120627246424065.765.623.9350.6%
15Brandon Weeden2TM26-441405704745.884.894.0754.6%
16Kellen MooreDAL22271044263536.985.794.154.7%
17Andrew LuckIND21-14429311607217.164.453.9661.7%
18Peyton ManningDEN-13-8233112749756.434.923.8556.6%
19Tony RomoDAL-17-121214534315.465.193.7451.2%
20Ryan TannehillMIA-2113586225719516.225.373.8553.6%
21Brock OsweilerDEN-211127510489196.165.413.8153.3%
22Jay CutlerCHI-26147483185118085.955.813.8350.6%
23Josh McCownCLE-4324292109210175.875.473.7451.8%
24Jimmy Clausen2TM-48-831254383016.084.183.559.3%
25Tom BradyNE-54252624237123995.95.973.849.7%
26Ryan FitzpatrickNYJ-61-7562212317826.345.323.7854.4%
27Eli ManningNYG-6532618233720996.045.423.7852.7%
28Ryan Mallett2TM-66-2722448824546.493.343.6166%
29Johnny ManzielCLE-77212237907106.125.53.5452.7%
30Case KeenumSTL-81171254054235.335.573.2448.9%
31Derek CarrOAK-90-19573213718506.115.293.7353.6%
32Matt CasselDAL-91-652057065705.934.793.4455.3%
33Matt HasselbeckIND-103-352568927985.725.123.4852.8%
34Zach MettenbergerTEN-142-1071665034324.984.283.0353.8%
35Blaine GabbertSF-17315728292311085.196.223.2745.4%
36Colin KaepernickSF-197952447518645.2263.0846.5%
37Joe FlaccoBAL-30268413130314884.95.593.1546.7%
38Alex SmithKC-312332470151519714.936.423.2243.5%
39Teddy BridgewaterMIN-322257447141518164.856.223.1743.8%
40Sam BradfordPHI-391200532167720484.855.923.1545%
41Aaron RodgersGB-427172572179620255.185.843.1447%
42Matthew StaffordDET-441277592186024024.676.043.1443.6%
43Nick FolesSTL-45217933785811944.526.282.5541.8%
44Philip RiversSD-456345661211326794.846.133.244.1%

Using conventional passing stats, the QB field in 2015 was bunched very close together – the majority of the league’s signal callers floated together in a sea of mediocrity. Curiously, when we parse their numbers by air yards and YAC, the exact opposite becomes true. This year, we saw a lot of quarterbacks rack up gaudy air yardage numbers, with just as many sinking to the depths of air yardage depravity. As impressive as Carson Palmer’s season was by conventional stats, he was historically dominant when air yards are factored in. Ben Roethlisberger put together a similarly dominant 2015, and perhaps would have matched Palmer had he not missed time due to injury. Although the Buccaneers limped to a 6-10 record, Jameis Winston had an extremely impressive rookie campaign, finishing 3rd in mAir and 2nd in air yards per completion. Another first year starter, Tyrod Taylor, was an air yardage monster in 2015, nearly eclipsing Winston on 155 fewer attempts. Speaking of young quarterbacks, the turnaround for Blake Bortles this year was borderline miraculous. In his rookie year of 2014, Bortles finished dead last in mAir, posting a ghastly -513. But in 2015, he jumped all the way up to 7th with a healthy +294. Color me surprised.

At the other end of the spectrum, Captain Checkdown became a very popular alias in 2015. We have the usual suspects like Alex Smith and Sam Bradford, two quarterbacks who personify the inability to go deep. But then we find some names that seem quite out of place lurking near the bottom, most notably Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers. In fairness, both of them were hamstrung by key injuries to their supporting cast, and they did compensate somewhat with high mYAC, but it’s still shocking to see these two perennial greats fall off a cliff as they did in 2015. How shocking? Check out their season-by-season splits:

A. RodgersmAirmYACAttAir/CYAC/CAir/AAir %
2008358-11553674.844.4559.1%
20092872585416.496.184.251.2%
20102871804756.556.024.3152.1%
20115422585027.236.314.9453.4%
2012381645525.825.753.9150.3%
20131412422906.286.854.1847.8%
20142642825206.426.434.2150%
2015-4271725725.185.843.1447%

Since becoming the Packers’ starter in 2008, Rodgers had generated positive mAir every season without exception, finishing at or near the top of the league on an annual basis. Until 2015, that is. Rodgers fell to an unreal -427 mAir and a corresponding 41st place finish. I never dreamed he would have a season of this nature until he was well past his prime. Now, to Rodgers’ credit, he has also been a YAC extraordinaire throughout his career, and this year he still registered a strong +172. But even with the YAC boost, he still finished with a career low (by a mile) 6.7 yards per attempt.

P. RiversmAirmYACAttAir/CYAC/CAir/AAir %
2006215-254606.885.054.2557.6%
2007-38574606.275.13.7855.1%
20083612234786.955.94.5454.1%
20094243224866.966.464.5451.9%
20103534145416.66.64.3550%
20112171275826.735.94.2353.3%
2012-3591435274.935.743.1646.2%
20131941575445.836.024.0549.2%
2014101-485705.845.473.8851.6%
2015-4563456614.846.133.244.1%

Mr. Rivers has also been a very consistent air yardage generator throughout his career, highlighted by a trio of top three mAir finishes from 2008-10. His only major hiccup came in 2012, but in 2015 Rivers sunk to a new low at -456 and a startling last-place finish. Like Rodgers, he has traditionally been a YAC gobbler as well, and this year YAC was his only saving grace with a formidable +345 mYAC. I have to think that both of these guys will bounce back in 2016 and play more like their usual selves, although Rivers is now in his mid-30s and his struggles in 2015 could be foreshadowing the decline phase of his career.

Earlier I mentioned Carson Palmer’s historical mAir production in 2015, but where exactly does it stack up? Here are the top 50 Marginal Air Yards seasons since data became available in 1992:

#QuarterbackTeamYearmAirmYACAttAir/CYAC/CAir/AAir %
1Daunte CulpepperMIN2000810-1784748.824.435.5366.6%
2Carson PalmerARI2015810-525378.475.195.3962%
3Peyton ManningIND2006785-3535577.984.175.1965.7%
4Mark BrunellJAC1996782-2995578.174.25.1866.1%
5Peyton ManningIND20047631004978.435.135.762.1%
6Steve McNairTEN2003702-2154008.794.075.568.4%
7Kurt WarnerSTL20016652015467.365.525.0557.1%
8Peyton ManningIND2000654-2185717.944.424.9664.2%
9Steve McNairTEN2001649-2694318.723.975.3468.7%
10Ben RoethlisbergerPIT2015646-2344697.744.615.2662.7%
11Jeff HostetlerLAA1993599-1294199.534.25.3769.4%
12Tony RomoDAL2006577-783378.414.795.4963.7%
13Tom BradyNE20075557057875.074.8258%
14Randall CunninghamMIN19985521494258.725.585.3261%
15Chris ChandlerATL19985443453279.786.825.6858.9%
16Peyton ManningIND2005544-434537.574.715.161.6%
17Aaron RodgersGB20115422585027.236.314.9453.4%
18Carson PalmerCIN2006538-1345207.734.734.8162%
19Jeff GeorgeMIN1999528483299.365.385.4363.5%
20Ben RoethlisbergerPIT20095211175067.055.794.754.9%
21Kurt WarnerSTL20005174043477.846.755.3153.7%
22Peyton ManningIND2007509-1085157.414.584.8561.8%
23Matt HasselbeckSEA2005506-2254497.674.095.0265.2%
24Peyton ManningDEN2014500-1955976.865.14.5457.4%
25Eli ManningNYG20114841815897.686.064.6855.9%
26Tony RomoDAL2007484785207.445.134.7959.2%
27Trent GreenSTL2000483-662409.664.575.8367.9%
28Scott MitchellDET1995482-1265837.834.714.6562.5%
29Drew BreesNO2009465625146.475.624.5753.5%
30Jake DelhommeCAR2008453-64148.215.164.8861.4%
31Jameis WinstonTB2015448-1525358.14.854.7362.5%
32Drew BledsoeNE1998447-624819.054.774.9565.5%
33John ElwayDEN1998445-1203568.934.435.2766.8%
34Carson PalmerCIN2005444-2685097.044.084.7763.3%
35Cam NewtonCAR2015442-1144968.014.964.7861.8%
36Ben RoethlisbergerPIT2007439-1384047.574.384.9563.4%
37Elvis GrbacKC200043545477.755.044.6260.6%
38Ben RoethlisbergerPIT2004434112958.484.895.6363.4%
39Drew BreesNO2011429-896576.345.374.5154.1%
40Eli ManningNYG2012427-2455367.754.554.6463%
41Steve YoungSF19934262844627.165.664.8655.9%
42Philip RiversSD20094243224866.966.464.5451.9%
43Peyton ManningDEN2012424-1325836.664.994.5757.2%
44Jim KellyBUF1992421-1514628.634.225.0367.2%
45Tyrod TaylorBUF2015421-1553807.844.74.9962.5%
46Steve BeuerleinPHO1993421-1304188.024.254.9565.4%
47Tony RomoDAL2014420-284356.685.514.6754.8%
48Matt SchaubHOU2009413645836.445.614.3753.5%
49Marc BulgerSTL2004410-174857.574.785.0161.3%
50Dan MarinoMIA1992408-1495548.144.334.8565.3%

So close! Palmer finishes a mere fraction of a yard behind Daunte Culpepper for the greatest air yardage season on record. If I had an MVP vote, it would have gone to Palmer. He somewhat quietly had one of the best QB seasons in recent memory, and led the Cardinals to their most successful regular season in franchise history. Roethlisberger also cracked the historical top 10, with the aforementioned Winston, Taylor, and probable MVP Cam Newton joining him in the top 50. This is only the second season since 1992 (the other being 2000) to place five quarterbacks in the top 50.

Of course you also want to see the bottom 50, right?

#QuarterbackTeamYearmAirmYACAttAir/CYAC/CAir/AAir %
1051Christian PonderMIN2012-6351194834.075.712.5341.6%
1050Mark RypienWAS1993-6341023193.755.371.9541.1%
1049Sam BradfordSTL2010-614175904.445.492.6644.7%
1048Joey HarringtonDET2003-606-1095544.754.572.6550.9%
1047Blaine GabbertJAC2011-561144134.925.622.546.7%
1046Joey HarringtonDET2004-5592454895.395.733.0248.5%
1045Brett FavreGB2006-5523586135.146.182.8845.4%
1044Blake BortlesJAC2014-513954754.455.942.6242.8%
1043Derek CarrOAK2014-509-3875994.914.492.8552.3%
1042Boomer EsiasonCIN1992-498722784.495.282.3245.9%
1041Tom BradyNE2002-4971516014.785.312.9747.3%
1040Joey HarringtonDET2002-4971094295.265.412.6349.3%
1039Brett FavreGB1993-4892245224.935.46347.5%
1038Bruce GradkowskiTB2006-48913284.245.152.2945.2%
1037Donovan McNabbPHI2000-488195695.115.092.9650.1%
1036Matt HasselbeckSEA2009-4851304884.455.892.6743.1%
1035Chad HenneJAC2013-4811555034.526.112.7442.5%
1034Brandon WeedenCLE2012-4732935175.16.32.9344.7%
1033David CarrHOU2006-472164423.975.22.7143.3%
1032Bobby HoyingPHI1998-468-422243.794.641.9345%
1031Chris WeinkeCAR2001-458-1435405.514.492.9955.1%
1030Philip RiversSD2015-4563456614.846.133.244.1%
1029Drew BledsoeNE2000-4541475315.045.52.9647.8%
1028Nick FolesSTL2015-4521793374.526.282.5541.8%
1027Matthew StaffordDET2015-4412775924.676.043.1443.6%
1026Jay CutlerCHI2014-4391035614.435.882.9243%
1025Kyle BollerBAL2004-434-1874645.814.113.2358.5%
1024Aaron RodgersGB2015-4271725725.185.843.1447%
1023Ryan FitzpatrickBUF2012-4272605054.956.16344.5%
1022David KlinglerCIN1993-4261063434.875.312.747.9%
1021Drew BreesSD2003-4051713564.525.762.644%
1020Jason CampbellWAS2009-4023805074.466.612.8740.3%
1019Alex SmithKC2013-3991105084.85.962.9144.6%
1018Alex SmithKC2014-3952464644.376.412.8540.5%
1017Jimmy ClausenCAR2010-394-92994.545.382.3845.8%
1016Sam BradfordPHI2015-3912005324.855.923.1545%
1015Shaun HillDET2010-3881364164.485.972.7742.9%
1014Steve BonoKC1996-3801144385.425.532.9149.5%
1013Drew BledsoeNE1995-376-1856366.364.53.2358.6%
1012Matt CasselNE2008-3754215164.826.473.0642.7%
1011Ryan FitzpatrickBUF2011-360355695.25.653.2347.9%
1010Philip RiversSD2012-3591435274.935.743.1646.2%
1009Jason CampbellWAS2008-355535064.955.353.0848%
1008Matthew StaffordDET2009-3511423775.136.152.7345.5%
1007Ryan FitzpatrickCIN2008-350-2973724.783.842.8455.5%
1006Jon KitnaSEA2000-3501084184.815.452.9846.9%
1005Peyton ManningIND1998-3451425756.035.443.4252.6%
1004Stan GelbaughSEA1992-339182555.874.932.7854.3%
1003Kyle BollerSTL2009-338581763.136.041.7434.1%
1002Shane MatthewsCHI1999-330652754.335.522.6344%

While none of this year’s passers could equal the futility of Christian Ponder or Joey Harrington, 2015 became the first season to place five quarterbacks in the bottom 50. Apparently historical greatness must be balanced out by historical suckiness!

What are your observations? If you have any ideas on other things I could do with this data, please let me know!

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