How Bad Was Ray Rice in 2013?

by Chase Stuart on March 15, 2014

Rice just barely averaged his height in 2013.

The 2013 season was a disaster for Ray Rice, and 2014 isn’t off to a very good start, either. Last season, Rice carried 214 times for just 660 yards and four touchdowns, producing an anemic 3.1 yards per carry average. On November 9th, I asked whether Rice was already washed up; at the time it felt a bit premature, but in retrospect, such a view seems much more reasonable. Averaging so few yards per carry over such a large number of carries is pretty rare. How rare?

As a disclaimer, I’m in the camp that thinks YPC is an overrated statistic. In 2013, Marshawn Lynch, Eddie Lacy, and Frank Gore all averaged around the league average of 4.17 yards per carry, but that doesn’t make them average backs. So consider much of this post to be a bit of trivia and fun with stats, rather than the best way to identify running back productivity. With that disclaimer out of the way, I calculated each player’s “yards above league average” for each season since 1950, which is the product of a player’s number of carries and the difference between his YPC average and the league average YPC rate.

For example, since Rice averaged 3.08 YPC on 214 carries, he gets credited for being 231 yards below average in 2013. By this measure, Rice was the worst running back in the league. He was worse than his teammate Bernard Pierce (who actually had a lower YPC average but on fewer carries, so he finished 197 yards below average), worse than Willis McGahee (-198) or Rashard Mendenhall (-217), and even worse than Trent Richardson (-220). And this wasn’t your typical worst season in the league, either: his 2013 performance ranks as the 15th worst in this metric since 1950:

Rk	Runner	Year	Age	Tm	Rsh	RshYd	RshTD	YPC	LgAvg	YdsOvAvg
1	Eddie George	2001	28	TEN	315	939	5	2.98	4.06	-339
2	Lamar Smith	2001	31	MIA	313	968	6	3.09	4.06	-302
3	Jonathan Wells	2002	23	HOU	197	529	3	2.69	4.22	-302
4	Eddie George	2002	29	TEN	343	1165	12	3.4	4.22	-281
5	Eddie George	2003	30	TEN	312	1031	5	3.3	4.16	-267
6	Ottis Anderson	1989	32	NYG	325	1023	14	3.15	3.95	-261
7	Ricky Williams	2003	26	MIA	392	1372	9	3.5	4.16	-258
8	Larry Brown	1973	26	WAS	273	860	8	3.15	4.06	-249
9	Harold Green	1993	25	CIN	215	589	0	2.74	3.89	-247
10	Edgerrin James	2006	28	ARI	337	1159	6	3.44	4.16	-242
11	Cedric Benson	2010	28	CIN	321	1111	7	3.46	4.21	-240
12	James Jackson	2001	25	CLE	195	554	2	2.84	4.06	-237
13	Karim Abdul-Jabbar	1997	23	MIA	283	892	15	3.15	3.98	-234
14	Benny Malone	1979	27	WAS	176	472	3	2.68	4	-232
15	Ray Rice	2013	26	BAL	214	660	4	3.08	4.17	-232
16	Trent Richardson	2013	22	2TM	188	563	3	2.99	4.17	-220
17	Tom Tracy	1961	27	PIT	147	402	2	2.73	4.22	-218
18	Rashard Mendenhall	2013	26	ARI	217	687	8	3.17	4.17	-217
19	LaDainian Tomlinson	2009	30	SDG	223	730	12	3.27	4.24	-216
20	Darren McFadden	2012	25	OAK	216	707	2	3.27	4.26	-214
21	Abner Haynes	1966	29	DEN	129	304	2	2.36	4.01	-213
22	Jerome Bettis	2003	31	PIT	246	811	7	3.3	4.16	-212
23	Rob Carpenter	1984	29	NYG	250	795	7	3.18	4.02	-210
24	Lee Bouggess	1970	22	PHI	159	401	2	2.52	3.83	-208
25	Chester Taylor	2010	31	CHI	112	267	3	2.38	4.21	-205
26	Curtis Enis	1999	23	CHI	287	916	3	3.19	3.9	-203
27	Larry Brown	1974	27	WAS	163	430	3	2.64	3.88	-202
28	Tim Hightower	2008	22	ARI	143	399	10	2.79	4.2	-202
29	Tony Collins	1986	27	NWE	156	412	3	2.64	3.94	-202
30	Warrick Dunn	2007	32	ATL	227	720	4	3.17	4.06	-202
31	Maurice Smith	2001	25	ATL	237	760	5	3.21	4.06	-201
32	Marion Butts	1994	28	NWE	243	703	8	2.89	3.72	-201
33	Reggie Cobb	1993	25	TAM	221	658	3	2.98	3.89	-201
34	Larry Schreiber	1975	28	SFO	134	337	5	2.51	4.01	-201
35	James Stewart	2000	29	DET	339	1184	10	3.49	4.08	-200
36	Christian Okoye	1990	29	KAN	245	805	7	3.29	4.1	-199
37	Adrian Murrell	1999	29	ARI	193	553	0	2.87	3.9	-199
38	James Wilder	1985	27	TAM	365	1300	10	3.56	4.1	-198
39	Willis McGahee	2013	32	CLE	138	377	2	2.73	4.17	-198
40	Eddie Price	1953	28	NYG	101	206	2	2.04	4	-198
41	Bernard Pierce	2013	23	BAL	152	436	2	2.87	4.17	-197
42	Dick Hoak	1963	24	PIT	216	679	6	3.14	4.05	-196
43	Travis Prentice	2000	24	CLE	173	512	7	2.96	4.08	-194
44	Warrick Dunn	2001	26	TAM	158	447	3	2.83	4.06	-194
45	Rudi Johnson	2007	28	CIN	170	497	3	2.92	4.06	-193
46	Kerry Collins	2002	30	NYG	44	-3	0	-0.07	4.22	-189
47	Po James	1972	23	PHI	182	565	0	3.1	4.14	-188
48	Trent Richardson	2012	21	CLE	267	950	11	3.56	4.26	-188
49	Chuck Foreman	1978	28	MIN	237	749	5	3.16	3.95	-188
50	Kevan Barlow	2004	25	SFO	244	822	7	3.37	4.14	-188
51	Alvin Maxson	1975	24	NOR	139	371	3	2.67	4.01	-187
52	John Riggins	1983	34	WAS	375	1347	24	3.59	4.09	-187
53	Tom Sullivan	1974	24	PHI	244	760	11	3.11	3.88	-187
54	Rip Collins	1950	24	BAL	69	101	0	1.46	4.16	-186
55	Curtis Martin	1998	25	NYJ	369	1287	8	3.49	3.99	-184
56	Anthony Thomas	2002	25	CHI	214	721	6	3.37	4.22	-181
57	Gene Gedman	1958	26	DET	92	209	4	2.27	4.23	-180
58	Craig James	1986	25	NWE	154	427	4	2.77	3.94	-179
59	Edgerrin James	2002	24	IND	277	989	2	3.57	4.22	-179
60	Thomas Jones	2011	33	KAN	153	478	0	3.12	4.29	-179
61	Marcel Shipp	2005	27	ARI	157	451	0	2.87	4.01	-178
62	Harlan Huckleby	1981	24	GNB	139	381	5	2.74	4.02	-178
63	Louis Carter	1976	23	TAM	171	521	1	3.05	4.08	-177
64	Garry James	1988	25	DET	182	552	5	3.03	4.01	-177
65	Edgar Bennett	1995	26	GNB	316	1067	3	3.38	3.93	-175
66	Marshall Faulk	1996	23	IND	198	587	7	2.96	3.85	-175
67	Kevan Barlow	2006	27	NYJ	131	370	6	2.82	4.16	-175
68	Bill Mathis	1963	25	NYJ	107	268	1	2.5	4.13	-174
69	Larry Johnson	2009	30	2TM	178	581	0	3.26	4.24	-174
70	Jamal Lewis	2006	27	BAL	314	1132	9	3.61	4.16	-173
71	Kevin Smith	2009	23	DET	217	747	4	3.44	4.24	-173
72	Stephen Davis	2005	31	CAR	180	549	12	3.05	4.01	-172
73	Maurice Jones-Drew	2013	28	JAX	234	803	5	3.43	4.17	-172
74	Troy Hambrick	2003	27	DAL	275	972	5	3.53	4.16	-172
75	Jamal Lewis	2005	26	BAL	269	906	3	3.37	4.01	-172
76	Jamal Lewis	2008	29	CLE	279	1002	4	3.59	4.2	-171
77	Andra Franklin	1983	24	MIA	224	746	8	3.33	4.09	-170
78	MacArthur Lane	1974	32	GNB	137	362	3	2.64	3.88	-169
79	Chris Perry	2008	27	CIN	104	269	2	2.59	4.2	-168
80	Emmitt Smith	2004	35	ARI	267	937	9	3.51	4.14	-168
81	Charley Taylor	1965	24	WAS	145	402	3	2.77	3.92	-167
82	Rodney Culver	1992	23	IND	121	321	7	2.65	4.03	-166
83	Rickey Young	1980	27	MIN	130	351	3	2.7	3.97	-165
84	Matt Forte	2009	24	CHI	258	929	4	3.6	4.24	-165
85	Jahvid Best	2010	21	DET	171	555	4	3.25	4.21	-165
86	Peyton Manning	2013	37	DEN	32	-31	1	-0.97	4.17	-164
87	MacArthur Lane	1973	31	GNB	170	528	1	3.11	4.06	-163
88	Sid Watson	1956	24	PIT	112	298	4	2.66	4.11	-162
89	Jerome Bettis	1994	22	RAM	319	1025	3	3.21	3.72	-162
90	Billy Ray Barnes	1960	25	PHI	117	315	4	2.69	4.08	-162
91	Robert Holcombe	1998	23	STL	98	230	2	2.35	3.99	-161
92	Ron Dayne	2000	22	NYG	228	770	5	3.38	4.08	-161
93	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	2013	28	CIN	220	756	7	3.44	4.17	-161
94	Preston Pearson	1970	25	PIT	173	503	2	2.91	3.83	-160
95	Natrone Means	1999	27	SDG	112	277	4	2.47	3.9	-160
96	Billy Cannon	1962	25	HOU	147	474	7	3.22	4.31	-159
97	Ron Johnson	1974	27	NYG	97	218	4	2.25	3.88	-158
98	Ted Dean	1960	22	PHI	113	304	0	2.69	4.08	-157
99	Le'Veon Bell	2013	21	PIT	244	860	8	3.52	4.17	-157
100	Reuben Droughns	2006	28	CLE	220	758	4	3.45	4.16	-157

In the 2000 calendar year, Eddie George had 519 carries. In the 2001 season, he produced the single worst season (according to this formula) since 1950. The next two seasons was nearly as bad, as George produced bottom-5 seasons in three consecutive years.

As you might expect, most of the running backs at the top of the list were very good running backs (or the lead backs on terrible teams — or both). They made it on to the list by virtue of getting too many carries when they were washed up or simply having a ton of carries in a very down year. At 27 in 2014, Rice is still pretty young, so he could end up with a Ricky Williams-like bounce back. Or, at 27, Rice is now old for a running back, and he could have a Larry Brown-like dropoff: the former Washington star was the NFL MVP in 1972, made this list in 1973, and then rushed for just 838 yards on 280 carries over the rest of his career. To the extent you believe a heavy workload signals overuse which leads to the wheels falling off, note that Rice led the NFL with 1,299 carries from 2009 to 2012 (including the postseason).

Since I already crunched the data, let’s close with a look at the best performances since 1950 in this statistic:

Rk	Runner	Year	Age	Tm	Rsh	RshYd	RshTD	YPC	LgAvg	YdsOvAvg
1	Barry Sanders	1997	29	DET	335	2053	11	6.13	3.98	720
2	Jim Brown	1963	27	CLE	291	1863	12	6.4	4.05	684
3	O.J. Simpson	1973	26	BUF	332	2003	12	6.03	4.06	654
4	Barry Sanders	1994	26	DET	331	1883	7	5.69	3.72	651
5	Adrian Peterson	2012	27	MIN	348	2097	12	6.03	4.26	614
6	Eric Dickerson	1984	24	RAM	379	2105	14	5.55	4.02	582
7	Walter Payton	1977	24	CHI	339	1852	14	5.46	3.85	547
8	Michael Vick	2006	26	ATL	123	1039	2	8.45	4.16	528
9	Jamaal Charles	2010	24	KAN	230	1467	5	6.38	4.21	499
10	O.J. Simpson	1975	28	BUF	329	1817	16	5.52	4.01	497
11	Chris Johnson	2009	24	TEN	358	2006	14	5.6	4.24	488
12	Randall Cunningham	1990	27	PHI	118	942	5	7.98	4.1	458
13	Jamal Lewis	2003	24	BAL	387	2066	14	5.34	4.16	456
14	Earl Campbell	1980	25	HOU	373	1934	13	5.18	3.97	452
15	Terrell Davis	1998	26	DEN	392	2008	21	5.12	3.99	445
16	Jim Brown	1958	22	CLE	257	1527	17	5.94	4.23	439
17	Tiki Barber	2005	30	NYG	357	1860	9	5.21	4.01	430
18	Jim Brown	1965	29	CLE	289	1544	17	5.34	3.92	411
19	Ahman Green	2003	26	GNB	355	1883	15	5.3	4.16	407
20	Michael Vick	2004	24	ATL	120	902	3	7.52	4.14	405
21	Larry Johnson	2005	26	KAN	336	1750	20	5.21	4.01	404
22	Frank Gore	2006	23	SFO	312	1695	8	5.43	4.16	398
23	Shaun Alexander	2005	28	SEA	370	1880	27	5.08	4.01	398
24	Marshall Faulk	1999	26	STL	253	1381	7	5.46	3.9	395
25	Otis Armstrong	1974	24	DEN	263	1407	9	5.35	3.88	387
26	Emmitt Smith	1993	24	DAL	283	1486	9	5.25	3.89	386
27	Clinton Portis	2003	22	DEN	290	1591	14	5.49	4.16	385
28	Bobby Douglass	1972	25	CHI	141	968	8	6.87	4.14	384
29	Jim Brown	1960	24	CLE	215	1257	9	5.85	4.08	380
30	Adrian Peterson	2007	22	MIN	238	1341	12	5.63	4.06	375
31	Barry Sanders	1996	28	DET	307	1553	11	5.06	3.85	372
32	LaDainian Tomlinson	2006	27	SDG	348	1815	28	5.22	4.16	368
33	DeAngelo Williams	2008	25	CAR	273	1515	18	5.55	4.2	367
34	Jim Taylor	1962	27	GNB	272	1474	19	5.42	4.07	367
35	James Brooks	1989	31	CIN	221	1239	7	5.61	3.95	366
36	Barry Sanders	1989	21	DET	280	1470	14	5.25	3.95	363
37	C.J. Spiller	2012	25	BUF	207	1244	6	6.01	4.26	362
38	Joe Perry	1954	27	SFO	173	1049	8	6.06	3.98	361
39	Clinton Portis	2002	21	DEN	273	1508	15	5.52	4.22	357
40	Mercury Morris	1973	26	MIA	149	954	10	6.4	4.06	349
41	Dan Towler	1951	23	RAM	126	854	6	6.78	4.05	344
42	LaDainian Tomlinson	2003	24	SDG	313	1645	13	5.26	4.16	343
43	Robert Smith	1997	25	MIN	232	1266	6	5.46	3.98	343
44	Gale Sayers	1966	23	CHI	229	1231	8	5.38	3.9	337
45	Garrison Hearst	1998	27	SFO	310	1570	7	5.06	3.99	334
46	Marshall Faulk	2001	28	STL	260	1382	12	5.32	4.06	327
47	Jim Brown	1964	28	CLE	280	1446	7	5.16	4	327
48	Marshall Faulk	2000	27	STL	253	1359	18	5.37	4.08	326
49	Leroy Kelly	1966	24	CLE	209	1141	15	5.46	3.9	325
50	John David Crow	1960	25	STL	183	1071	6	5.85	4.08	325
51	O.J. Simpson	1976	29	BUF	290	1503	8	5.18	4.08	319
52	Skeets Quinlan	1953	25	RAM	97	705	4	7.27	4	317
53	Robert Smith	2000	28	MIN	295	1521	7	5.16	4.08	317
54	Jamaal Charles	2009	23	KAN	190	1120	7	5.89	4.24	314
55	Hugh McElhenny	1952	24	SFO	98	684	6	6.98	3.81	310
56	Chris Warren	1994	26	SEA	333	1545	9	4.64	3.72	306
57	Robert Griffin	2012	22	WAS	120	815	7	6.79	4.26	304
58	Tiki Barber	2006	31	NYG	327	1662	5	5.08	4.16	303
59	Gale Sayers	1968	25	CHI	138	856	2	6.2	4.02	301
60	Michael Vick	2002	22	ATL	113	777	8	6.88	4.22	301
61	Dan Towler	1952	24	RAM	156	894	10	5.73	3.81	299
62	LeSean McCoy	2013	25	PHI	314	1607	9	5.12	4.17	299
63	Keith Lincoln	1963	24	SDG	128	826	5	6.45	4.13	297
64	Napoleon Kaufman	1996	23	OAK	150	874	1	5.83	3.85	297
65	Fred Taylor	2007	31	JAX	223	1202	5	5.39	4.06	297
66	Lenny Moore	1956	23	BAL	86	649	8	7.55	4.11	296
67	Priest Holmes	2002	29	KAN	313	1615	21	5.16	4.22	295
68	Warrick Dunn	2005	30	ATL	280	1416	3	5.06	4.01	294
69	Jamaal Charles	2012	26	KAN	285	1509	5	5.29	4.26	294
70	Paul Lowe	1960	24	LAC	136	855	8	6.29	4.13	293
71	Emmitt Smith	1995	26	DAL	377	1773	25	4.7	3.93	291
72	Charlie Garner	1999	27	SFO	241	1229	4	5.1	3.9	289
73	Jerome Bettis	1993	21	RAM	294	1429	7	4.86	3.89	286
74	Leroy Kelly	1967	25	CLE	235	1205	11	5.13	3.92	284
75	Terrell Davis	1997	25	DEN	369	1750	15	4.74	3.98	282
76	Jim Taylor	1961	26	GNB	243	1307	15	5.38	4.22	282
77	Don Woods	1974	23	SDG	227	1162	7	5.12	3.88	281
78	Ottis Anderson	1979	22	STL	331	1605	8	4.85	4	281
79	Randall Cunningham	1986	23	PHI	66	540	5	8.18	3.94	280
80	James Brooks	1986	28	CIN	205	1087	5	5.3	3.94	280
81	Paul Lowe	1963	27	SDG	177	1010	8	5.71	4.13	279
82	Donovan McNabb	2000	24	PHI	86	629	6	7.31	4.08	278
83	Paul Lowe	1965	29	SDG	222	1121	6	5.05	3.8	277
84	Franco Harris	1972	22	PIT	188	1055	10	5.61	4.14	277
85	Thurman Thomas	1991	25	BUF	288	1407	7	4.89	3.93	276
86	Mike Anderson	2000	27	DEN	297	1487	15	5.01	4.08	275
87	Stephen Davis	1999	25	WAS	290	1405	17	4.84	3.9	274
88	Wendell Tyler	1984	29	SFO	246	1262	7	5.13	4.02	273
89	Steve McNair	1997	24	TEN	101	674	8	6.67	3.98	272
90	Dan Towler	1953	25	RAM	152	879	7	5.78	4	272
91	Tony Dorsett	1981	27	DAL	342	1646	4	4.81	4.02	272
92	Hoyle Granger	1967	23	HOU	236	1194	6	5.06	3.92	268
93	Larry Csonka	1971	25	MIA	195	1051	7	5.39	4.02	267
94	Bo Jackson	1989	27	RAI	173	950	4	5.49	3.95	266
95	Barry Sanders	1995	27	DET	314	1500	11	4.78	3.93	266
96	Greg Pruitt	1978	27	CLE	176	960	3	5.45	3.95	264
97	Michael Vick	2011	31	PHI	76	589	1	7.75	4.29	263
98	Ray Rice	2009	22	BAL	254	1339	7	5.27	4.24	262
99	Hugh McElhenny	1954	26	SFO	64	515	6	8.05	3.98	261
100	Roger Craig	1988	28	SFO	310	1502	9	4.85	4.01	260

Unsurprisingly, there’s a lot of overlap between this list and this list. But this time, Barry Sanders takes the top spot.

Tagged as: Ray Rice

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