Five years ago, I asked two questions: how often does the first receiver selected in the Draft turn out to be the best rookie receiver?  And how often does the best rookie receiver turn out to be the best receiver from his draft?  In the 2017 NFL Draft, the Titans selected Corey Davis, the excellent wide receiver from Western Michigan with the fifth overall pick.

At the time of my original post, the protagonist was Justin Blackmon, the highest selected receiver in the 2012 Draft.  And at the time, the odds looked ugly: from 1970 to 2010, only 4 out of 31 times did the first receiver drafted lead his rookie class in receiving yards: Ahmad Rashad in 1972, Isaac Curtis in 1973, Jerry Butler in ’79, and then Willie Gault in 1983.  When A.J. Green did it in 2011, it ended a streak of 27 straight years where the top receiver didn’t lead the league in receiving yards.

So what’s happened since then? Well, Blackmon did in fact lead all rookies in receiving yards, although the margin over T.Y. Hilton was just four yards. In 2013, Tavon Austin was the first wideout drafted, but he ranked 9th among that group in receiving yards as a rookie with 418. Instead, Keenan Allen (1,046) took top honors that year.

In 2014, Sammy Watkins was the first wideout selected in perhaps the best wide receiver class ever.  Watkins had a very good year with 982 yards (ranking 4th among wide receivers drafted that season), but that was a far cry behind Odell Beckham and his 1305 yards (in just 12 games).  But then two years ago, Amari Cooper joined Green and Blackmon by being the top rookie wide receiver in both the draft and the regular season. Cooper was the 4th overall pick and had 1,070 yards, beating undrafted Willie Snead (984).  Finally, last season, Corey Coleman was the first wide receiver drafted, but he had only 413 yards in 10 games.  In 2016, there was just one great rookie wideout: Michael Thomas had 1,137 yards, and no other rookie receiver had even 700 yards.

Overall, that means 7 times since 1970 has the same wide receiver been both the first wideout drafted and the top wide receiver as a rookie among drafted wide receivers. ^[1]All references to wide receiver production as a rookie in this article are limited to drafted wide receivers. There were three instances where an undrafted receiver did in fact lead his rookie class … Continue reading  The graph below shows where the top drafted receiver ranked in receiving yards as a rookie among drafted wide receivers. And yes, that 2009 blip represents Darrius Heyward-Bey.

In 1972 and 1973, the top rookie receiver in receiving yards was the first wideout drafted.  But in 1971, the leading rookie receiver was Randy Vataha, who was the 49th wide receiver drafted that year.  Then, 35 years later, Marques Colston pulled off a similar feat, going from the 29th receiver drafted to the top rookie receiver.

So let’s look at things from the opposite perspective: where was the top rookie receiver drafted? In general, about one-third of the time the top rookie receiver by receiving yards will be the first or second wideout drafted.  And about 60% of the time, he will be one of the first four receivers drafted. The graph below shows where, among all rookie receivers selected in the draft, the top rookie receiver in receiving yards was drafted in each year since 1970:

What does this mean for Davis? Well, he’s certainly not the favorite over the field to lead his class in receiving yards. There were three wide receivers drafted in the top 10: Davis to Tennessee, Mike Williams to the Chargers, and John Ross to the Bengals, and not another receiver drafted until the second round.  There’s probably a 50% chance (if not higher) that one of those three winds up being the top rookie receiver.