Justin Blackmon was the first receiver selected in April’s draft. What are the odds that the former Oklahoma State Cowboy will be the best rookie receiver in 2012? And how likely is it that Blackmon will ultimately be the best receiver out of his class?

In some ways, it’s an unfair question. There were 33 receivers selected, including six in the first two rounds. The likelihood of Blackmon being the most productive is certainly greater than 1 out of 33, but how much greater is it? ^[1]I’m not going to comment on how Justin Blackmon was arrested on an aggregated DUI charge on June 3.

We don’t know, and we won’t know until his career (and the careers of his draft mates) ultimately unfolds, but we can speculate based on historical results.

Since the NFL merger, how frequently has the top drafted receiver ended up being the best rookie? Five out of 42 times, the top-selected rookie led his draft class in receiving yards that season. Believe it or not, before A.J. Green did it last season, Chicago’s Willie Gault in 1983 was the last to do so. The table below lists the top rookies selected in each of the last 42 drafts, along with their overall draft pick, and the number of receiving yards they recorded as rookies. The last two columns list the top rookie receiver (by receiving yards) and what percentage of that number of receiving yards the highest drafted rookie achieved.

Year	Receiver	Team	Pick	College	Rook Yds	% of Leader	Top Rookie
2011	A.J. Green	CIN	4	Georgia	1057	1.00	A.J. Green
2010	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	22	Georgia Tech	283	0.29	Mike Williams
2009	Darrius Heyward-Bey	OAK	7	Maryland	124	0.16	Hakeem Nicks
2008	Donnie Avery	STL	33	Houston	674	0.69	Eddie Royal
2007	Calvin Johnson	DET	2	Georgia Tech	756	0.76	Dwayne Bowe
2006	Santonio Holmes	PIT	25	Ohio St.	824	0.79	Marques Colston
2005	Braylon Edwards	CLE	3	Michigan	512	0.90	Reggie Brown
2004	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	3	Pittsburgh	780	0.65	Michael Clayton
2003	Charles Rogers	DET	2	Michigan St.	243	0.18	Anquan Boldin
2002	Donte Stallworth	NOR	13	Tennessee	594	0.81	Antonio Bryant
2001	David Terrell	CHI	8	Michigan	415	0.47	Chris Chambers
2000	Peter Warrick	CIN	4	Florida St.	592	0.83	Darrell Jackson
1999	Torry Holt	STL	6	North Carolina St.	788	0.80	Kevin Johnson
1998	Kevin Dyson	TEN	16	Utah	263	0.20	Randy Moss
1997	Ike Hilliard	NYG	7	Florida	42	0.08	Rae Carruth
1996	Keyshawn Johnson	NYJ	1	USC	844	0.75	Terry Glenn
1995	Michael Westbrook	WAS	4	Colorado	522	0.50	Joey Galloway
1994	Charles Johnson	PIT	17	Colorado	577	0.67	Darnay Scott
1993	Curtis Conway	CHI	7	USC	231	0.36	Horace Copeland
1992	Desmond Howard	WAS	4	Michigan	20	0.06	Courtney Hawkins
1991	Herman Moore	DET	10	Virginia	135	0.17	Lawrence Dawsey
1990	Alexander Wright	DAL	26	Auburn	104	0.13	Ricky Proehl
1989	Hart Lee Dykes	NWE	16	Oklahoma St.	795	0.92	Shawn Collins
1988	Tim Brown	RAI	6	Notre Dame	725	0.92	Sterling Sharpe
1987	Haywood Jeffires	HOU	20	North Carolina St.	89	0.14	Ricky Nattiel
1986	Mike Sherrard	DAL	18	UCLA	744	0.66	Bill Brooks
1985	Al Toon	NYJ	10	Wisconsin	662	0.70	Eddie Brown
1984	Irving Fryar	NWE	1	Nebraska	164	0.19	Louis Lipps
1983	Willie Gault	CHI	18	Tennessee	836	1.00	Willie Gault
1982	Anthony Hancock	KAN	11	Tennessee	116	0.46	Lindsay Scott
1981	David Verser	CIN	10	Kansas	161	0.16	Cris Collinsworth
1980	Lam Jones	NYJ	2	Texas	482	0.60	Art Monk
1979	Jerry Butler	BUF	5	Clemson	834	1.00	Jerry Butler
1978	Wes Chandler	NOR	3	Florida	472	0.47	John Jefferson
1977	Stanley Morgan	NWE	25	Tennessee	443	0.60	Wesley Walker
1976	Billy Brooks	CIN	11	Oklahoma	191	0.21	Sammy White
1975	Larry Burton	NOR	7	Purdue	305	0.70	Rick Upchurch
1974	Lynn Swann	PIT	21	USC	208	0.34	Nat Moore
1973	Isaac Curtis	CIN	15	San Diego St.	843	1.00	Isaac Curtis
1972	Ahmad Rashad	STL	4	Oregon	500	1.00	Ahmad Rashad
1971	J.D. Hill	BUF	4	Arizona St.	216	0.25	Randy Vataha
1970	Ken Burrough	NOR	10	Texas Southern	196	0.28	Ron Shanklin

The results are pretty spotty, even in recent years. For every A.J. Green or Calvin Johnson, Santonio Holmes or Braylon Edwards, there’s a Demaryius Thomas, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Charles Rogers. Subjectively, it seems like Blackmon is much more pro-ready than players like Heyward-Bey and Thomas, and Rogers suffered through injuries during his rookie year. If healthy, it’s hard not to imagine Blackmon at least having a moderately successful year, on the order of 55 catches, 700 yards and 5 touchdowns.

But Jacksonville fans are surely more concerned with his long-term prospects. And those look pretty good, based on how prior top receivers have fared. Obviously it is too early to set in stone grades for more recent classes, but here is the same table as above but with career receiving yards being used instead of rookie season production. Nearly 25% of the time, the top rookie receiver has ended up with the most receiving yards in his class. On the other hand, 22 of the 42 players produced fewer than half of the receiving yards of the most productive member of that group.

Year	Receiver	Team	Pick	College	Career Yds	% of Leader	Top Career
2011	A.J. Green	CIN	4	Georgia	1057	1.00	A.J. Green
2010	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	22	Georgia Tech	834	0.48	Mike Williams
2009	Darrius Heyward-Bey	OAK	7	Maryland	1465	0.46	Mike Wallace
2008	Donnie Avery	STL	33	Houston	1308	0.32	DeSean Jackson
2007	Calvin Johnson	DET	2	Georgia Tech	5872	1.00	Calvin Johnson
2006	Santonio Holmes	PIT	25	Ohio St.	5235	0.84	Brandon Marshall
2005	Braylon Edwards	CLE	3	Michigan	5323	0.72	Roddy White
2004	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	3	Pittsburgh	9615	1.00	Larry Fitzgerald
2003	Charles Rogers	DET	2	Michigan St.	440	0.05	Andre Johnson
2002	Donte Stallworth	NOR	13	Tennessee	4774	0.73	Deion Branch
2001	David Terrell	CHI	8	Michigan	1602	0.14	Reggie Wayne
2000	Peter Warrick	CIN	4	Florida St.	2991	0.35	Laveranues Coles
1999	Torry Holt	STL	6	North Carolina St.	13382	1.00	Torry Holt
1998	Kevin Dyson	TEN	16	Utah	2325	0.16	Randy Moss
1997	Ike Hilliard	NYG	7	Florida	6397	0.53	Derrick Mason
1996	Keyshawn Johnson	NYJ	1	USC	10571	0.66	Terrell Owens
1995	Michael Westbrook	WAS	4	Colorado	4374	0.40	Joey Galloway
1994	Charles Johnson	PIT	17	Colorado	4606	0.30	Isaac Bruce
1993	Curtis Conway	CHI	7	USC	8230	1.00	Curtis Conway
1992	Desmond Howard	WAS	4	Michigan	1597	0.13	Jimmy Smith
1991	Herman Moore	DET	10	Virginia	9174	0.81	Keenan McCardell
1990	Alexander Wright	DAL	26	Auburn	1597	0.18	Ricky Proehl
1989	Hart Lee Dykes	NWE	16	Oklahoma St.	1344	0.13	Andre Rison
1988	Tim Brown	RAI	6	Notre Dame	14934	1.00	Tim Brown
1987	Haywood Jeffires	HOU	20	North Carolina St.	6334	0.72	Mark Carrier
1986	Mike Sherrard	DAL	18	UCLA	3931	0.48	Ernest Givins
1985	Al Toon	NYJ	10	Wisconsin	6605	0.29	Jerry Rice
1984	Irving Fryar	NWE	1	Nebraska	12785	1.00	Irving Fryar
1983	Willie Gault	CHI	18	Tennessee	6635	0.48	Henry Ellard
1982	Anthony Hancock	KAN	11	Tennessee	1266	0.14	Mark Duper
1981	David Verser	CIN	10	Kansas	454	0.07	Cris Collinsworth
1980	Lam Jones	NYJ	2	Texas	2322	0.18	Art Monk
1979	Jerry Butler	BUF	5	Clemson	4301	0.44	Drew Hill
1978	Wes Chandler	NOR	3	Florida	8966	0.64	James Lofton
1977	Stanley Morgan	NWE	25	Tennessee	10716	1.00	Stanley Morgan
1976	Billy Brooks	CIN	11	Oklahoma	1720	0.13	Steve Largent
1975	Larry Burton	NOR	7	Purdue	804	0.14	Freddie Solomon
1974	Lynn Swann	PIT	21	USC	5462	0.63	John Stallworth
1973	Isaac Curtis	CIN	15	San Diego St.	7101	1.00	Isaac Curtis
1972	Ahmad Rashad	STL	4	Oregon	6831	0.79	Cliff Branch
1971	J.D. Hill	BUF	4	Arizona St.	2880	0.32	Harold Carmichael
1970	Ken Burrough	NOR	10	Texas Southern	7102	1.00	Ken Burrough

Updated:

In response to Jon’s question in the comments, here is where each wide receiver that led his class in receiving yards was drafted (among receivers):

Year	Name	Order
2011	A.J. Green	1
2010	Mike Williams	15
2009	Mike Wallace	11
2008	DeSean Jackson	7
2007	Calvin Johnson	1
2006	Brandon Marshall	14
2005	Roddy White	6
2004	Larry Fitzgerald	1
2003	Andre Johnson	2
2002	Deion Branch	11
2001	Reggie Wayne	6
2000	Laveranues Coles	13
1999	Torry Holt	1
1998	Randy Moss	2
1997	Derrick Mason	9
1996	Terrell Owens	12
1995	Joey Galloway	2
1994	Isaac Bruce	6
1993	Curtis Conway	1
1992	Jimmy Smith	3
1991	Keenan McCardell	43
1990	Ricky Proehl	4
1989	Andre Rison	2
1988	Tim Brown	1
1987	Mark Carrier	7
1986	Ernest Givins	3
1985	Jerry Rice	3
1984	Irving Fryar	1
1983	Henry Ellard	2
1982	Mark Duper	6
1981	Cris Collinsworth	3
1980	Art Monk	2
1979	Drew Hill	35
1978	James Lofton	2
1977	Stanley Morgan	1
1976	Steve Largent	17
1975	Freddie Solomon	2
1974	John Stallworth	8
1973	Isaac Curtis	1
1972	Cliff Branch	11
1971	Harold Carmichael	19
1970	Ken Burrough	1