Hue Jackson, Todd Bowles, Sean McDermott, Steve Wilks, and John Harbaugh all saw their teams use first round picks on quarterbacks in the 2018 Draft. But does drafting Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson increase the security of the long-term future of those coaches? How long of a leash does a coach have after adding a first round QB?
From 2002 to 2016, ignoring the three current situations [1]Carson Wentz was taken in the first round of the 2016 Draft, while Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were taken in the first round of the 2017 Draft. Their head coaches — Doug Pederson, Andy … Continue reading, there were 43 other quarterbacks drafted in the first rounds of those drafts. How long did those 43 coaches last? As it turns out, most did not last very long.
In four cases — Ken Whisenhunt in 2015 (7 games), Jack Del Rio in 2011 (11), Josh McDaniels in 2010 (12), and Jeff Fisher in 2016 (13) — the head coach didn’t even finish the season!
Another 12 were gone after just one season, which means 37% of coaches did not make it to year two after adding a first round rookie quarterback. Eight more didn’t make it to year three, so it is more likely than not that when a team drafts a rookie quarterback, it will have a new head coach by the time that quarterback enters his third season. On the other hand, 12 coaches made it at least 5 years after adding doing so.
The graph below shows the 43 situations, and how many seasons those coaches stuck around.
A new trend has emerged in recent years that is particularly noteworthy for our 2018 Class. Fox, Fisher, and Smith — all defensive coaches cut from a similar mold — were gone within one year of their teams going all in on a highly drafted quarterback. [2]Before them, we could look at 2014, where the three first round quarterbacks all went to defensive coaches in Mike Pettine (gone after two years, although so was his quarterback), Gus Bradley (gone … Continue reading That may not bode well for the likes of Bowles, Wilkes, McDermott, and even Harbaugh [3]A former special teams coach, of course., as those teams may want to add an offensive-minded head coach the way the Bucs, Rams, and Bears have done. And that’s especially true if the rookie quarterback in question struggles.
As for Jackson, the lone offensive-minded head coach of our current crop? After a 1-31 start to his Browns career, he’s on the hottest seat of all.
References
| ↑1 | Carson Wentz was taken in the first round of the 2016 Draft, while Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were taken in the first round of the 2017 Draft. Their head coaches — Doug Pederson, Andy Reid, and Bill O’Brien — are all still around, so it’s too early to determine how long they’ll last with their current teams. |
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| ↑2 | Before them, we could look at 2014, where the three first round quarterbacks all went to defensive coaches in Mike Pettine (gone after two years, although so was his quarterback), Gus Bradley (gone after three years, replaced by his offensive coordinator), and Mike Zimmer (survived and outlasted his quarterback because of the overall success of the franchise). But I’m not sure if we can learn a lot from these cases. |
| ↑3 | A former special teams coach, of course. |