How Should The Yards Per Carry King Be Crowned?

by Chase Stuart on May 9, 2018

The NFL requires a player to record 6.25 carries per game in order to qualify for the yards per carry crown. Using that cutoff, here were the leaders in yards per carry during the 2013 season.

Rushing & Receiving Table
					Game	Game	Rush	Rush	Rush	Rush	Rush	Rush	Rush
Rk		Tm	Age	Pos	G	GS	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A ▼	Y/G	A/G
1	Andre Ellington	ARI	24	rb	15	1	118	652	3	80	5.5	43.5	7.9
2	Cam Newton*	CAR	24	QB	16	16	111	585	6	56	5.3	36.6	6.9
3	Donald Brown	IND	26	rb	16	5	102	537	6	51	5.3	33.6	6.4
4	DeMarco Murray*	DAL	25	RB	14	14	217	1121	9	43	5.2	80.1	15.5
5	LeSean McCoy*+	PHI	25	RB	16	16	314	1607	9	57	5.1	100.4	19.6
6	Jamaal Charles*+	KAN	27	RB	15	15	259	1287	12	46	5.0	85.8	17.3
7	LeGarrette Blount	NWE	27	rb	16	7	153	772	7	47	5.0	48.3	9.6

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

There is nothing special about a threshold of 6.25 carries/game (or 100-carries in a 16-game season). If the cut-off was lower, we could have had any of these players be the yards per carry king for the 2013 season:

Query Results Table
				Game	Game	Rush	Rush	Rush
Player	Year	Age	Tm	G	GS	Att	Yds	Y/A
Travis Benjamin	2013	24	CLE	8	3	1	45	45.00
Antone Smith	2013	28	ATL	15	0	5	145	29.00
Tavon Austin	2013	23	STL	13	3	9	151	16.78
Cordarrelle Patterson	2013	22	MIN	16	6	12	158	13.17
Michael Vick	2013	33	PHI	7	6	36	306	8.50
Terrelle Pryor	2013	24	OAK	11	9	83	576	6.94
Colin Kaepernick	2013	26	SFO	16	16	92	524	5.70
Russell Wilson	2013	25	SEA	16	16	96	539	5.61

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

The 100 carries threshold is arbitrary. It does a good job of eliminating quarterbacks, but not a great one: in fact, 8 of the last 16 players to lead the NFL in yards per carry using the 100-carry threshold were still quarterbacks (five by Michael Vick). Any threshold would be arbitrary, though, so what if there was a less black-or-white method to determining the YPC King?

Let’s look back at that 2013 season. Ellington averaged 5.5 yards per carry on 118 carries. Looking at that table, the season that really stands out is from LeSean McCoy. He averaged 5.1 YPC on nearly 200 more carries! Thought of another way, he had 196 more carries than Ellington and gained 955 more yards, an averaged of 4.87 YPC. That’s a really high average, and something that should be seen as a positive, not a negative, when determining the YPC king. [Brief disclaimer: I still don’t like using YPC as a metric to grade running backs, and I find YPC highly overrated. That said, that stats geek in me would prefer to use it in a more elegant way to rank players.]

In the 2013 NFL season, players combined for 13,871 rushing attempts that went for 57,795 yards, a 4.167 yards per carry average. All players other than Ellington combined to average 4.155 yards per carry, or 0.012 fewer YPC than the actual league average. Ellington was great, but his 118 carries can only move the needle so far. All players other than McCoy combined to average 4.145 yards per carry, or 0.022 fewer YPC than the actual league average.

The numbers, of course, are tiny, but but the magnitude is what I’m focused on. McCoy improved the league-wide YPC average by nearly twice as much as Ellington. Would this be a better way to crown the YPC king? The table below shows the league leaders in each season (and in each league) since 1932. The table can be read as follows. In 2017, Alvin Kamara of the Saints rushed 120 times for 728 yards, a 6.07 YPC average. The league had 13,755 rush attempts for 56,170 yards, or 4.08 YPC. The league YPC average without Kamar was 4.07. The next column is the difference between those two numbers multiplied by 100 — because otherwise, this table would have a lot of decimals! Kamara improved the league average by 0.0175, which is shown as 1.75 in the table below. The final column is pro-rated as if each season had 32 teams. This is irrelevant in modern times, but in non-32 team seasons, it’s a lot easier for one player to move the YPC needle, so the pro-rated column is necessary.

Year	Lg	Player	Tm	Rush	Yd	YPC	Lg Rush	Lg Yd	Lg YPC	Lg YPC (w/o)	Diff	ProRt
2017	NFL	Alvin Kamara	nor	120	728	6.07	13755	56170	4.08	4.07	1.75	1.75
2016	NFL	LeSean McCoy	buf	234	1267	5.41	13321	55763	4.19	4.16	2.20	2.20
2015	NFL	Thomas Rawls	sea	147	830	5.65	13488	55724	4.13	4.11	1.67	1.67
2014	NFL	Russell Wilson	sea	118	849	7.19	13688	57002	4.16	4.14	2.64	2.64
2013	NFL	LeSean McCoy	phi	314	1607	5.12	13871	57795	4.17	4.14	2.20	2.20
2012	NFL	Adrian Peterson	min	348	2097	6.03	13925	59349	4.26	4.22	4.52	4.52
2011	NFL	Michael Vick	phi	76	589	7.75	13971	59978	4.29	4.27	1.89	1.89
2010	NFL	Jamaal Charles	kan	230	1467	6.38	13920	58607	4.21	4.17	3.64	3.64
2009	NFL	Chris Johnson	oti	358	2006	5.60	14088	59739	4.24	4.20	3.55	3.55
2008	NFL	DeAngelo Williams	car	273	1515	5.55	14119	59370	4.20	4.18	2.65	2.65
2007	NFL	Adrian Peterson	min	238	1341	5.63	13986	56790	4.06	4.03	2.72	2.72
2006	NFL	Michael Vick	atl	123	1039	8.45	14447	60061	4.16	4.12	3.68	3.68
2005	NFL	Tiki Barber	nyg	357	1860	5.21	14375	57583	4.01	3.98	3.07	3.07
2004	NFL	Michael Vick	atl	120	902	7.52	14428	59709	4.14	4.11	2.83	2.83
2003	NFL	Jamal Lewis	rav	387	2066	5.34	14508	60341	4.16	4.13	3.23	3.23
2002	NFL	Clinton Portis	den	273	1508	5.52	14102	59459	4.22	4.19	2.58	2.58
2001	NFL	Marshall Faulk	ram	260	1382	5.32	13666	55440	4.06	4.03	2.44	2.36
2000	NFL	Marshall Faulk	ram	253	1359	5.37	13677	55829	4.08	4.06	2.43	2.35
1999	NFL	Marshall Faulk	ram	253	1381	5.46	13548	52819	3.90	3.87	2.97	2.88
1998	NFL	Terrell Davis	den	392	2008	5.12	13568	54093	3.99	3.95	3.38	3.17
1997	NFL	Barry Sanders	det	335	2053	6.13	13639	54260	3.98	3.92	5.41	5.08
1996	NFL	Barry Sanders	det	307	1553	5.06	13594	52306	3.85	3.82	2.80	2.62
1995	NFL	Emmitt Smith	dal	377	1773	4.70	13199	51886	3.93	3.91	2.27	2.13
1994	NFL	Barry Sanders	det	331	1883	5.69	12550	46710	3.72	3.67	5.33	4.66
1993	NFL	Emmitt Smith	dal	283	1486	5.25	12684	49295	3.89	3.86	3.11	2.72
1992	NFL	Thurman Thomas	buf	312	1487	4.77	12291	49509	4.03	4.01	1.92	1.68
1991	NFL	Thurman Thomas	buf	288	1407	4.89	12279	48237	3.93	3.91	2.30	2.01
1990	NFL	Randall Cunningham	phi	118	942	7.98	12442	51012	4.10	4.06	3.72	3.25
1989	NFL	James Brooks	cin	221	1239	5.61	13068	51646	3.95	3.92	2.85	2.49
1988	NFL	Roger Craig	sfo	310	1502	4.85	13581	54395	4.01	3.99	1.96	1.72
1987	NFL	Bo Jackson	rai	81	554	6.84	13189	52044	3.95	3.93	1.79	1.56
1986	NFL	James Brooks	cin	205	1087	5.30	13509	53172	3.94	3.91	2.11	1.84
1985	NFL	Stump Mitchell	crd	183	1006	5.50	13636	55969	4.10	4.09	1.89	1.66
1984	NFL	Eric Dickerson	ram	379	2105	5.55	13811	55503	4.02	3.98	4.33	3.79
1983	NFL	Mike Pagel	clt	54	441	8.17	14211	58122	4.09	4.07	1.56	1.36
1982	NFL	Freeman McNeil	nyj	151	786	5.21	7763	29679	3.82	3.80	2.74	2.40
1981	NFL	Tony Dorsett	dal	342	1646	4.81	14508	58304	4.02	4.00	1.92	1.68
1980	NFL	Earl Campbell	oti	373	1934	5.18	14384	57135	3.97	3.94	3.23	2.83
1979	NFL	Ottis Anderson	crd	331	1605	4.85	15183	60733	4.00	3.98	1.89	1.66
1978	NFL	Greg Pruitt	cle	176	960	5.45	16075	63540	3.95	3.94	1.66	1.45
1977	NFL	Walter Payton	chi	339	1852	5.46	14650	56400	3.85	3.81	3.82	3.34
1976	NFL	O.J. Simpson	buf	290	1503	5.18	14461	59064	4.08	4.06	2.25	1.97
1975	NFL	O.J. Simpson	buf	329	1817	5.52	13199	52960	4.01	3.97	3.86	3.14
1974	NFL	Otis Armstrong	den	263	1407	5.35	12507	48520	3.88	3.85	3.16	2.57
1973	NFL	O.J. Simpson	buf	332	2003	6.03	12936	52554	4.06	4.01	5.19	4.22
1972	NFL	Bobby Douglass	chi	141	968	6.87	12256	50724	4.14	4.11	3.17	2.58
1971	NFL	Larry Csonka	mia	195	1051	5.39	11776	47367	4.02	4.00	2.30	1.87
1970	NFL	Duane Thomas	dal	151	803	5.32	11432	43820	3.83	3.81	1.99	1.61
1969	NFL	Bobby Douglass	chi	51	408	8.00	6831	27317	4.00	3.97	3.01	1.50
1968	NFL	Gale Sayers	chi	138	856	6.20	7059	28402	4.02	3.98	4.35	2.17
1967	NFL	Leroy Kelly	cle	235	1205	5.13	6868	26931	3.92	3.88	4.27	2.14
1966	NFL	Gale Sayers	chi	229	1231	5.38	6509	25401	3.90	3.85	5.37	2.52
1965	NFL	Jim Brown	cle	289	1544	5.34	6031	23654	3.92	3.85	7.15	3.13
1964	NFL	Jim Brown	cle	280	1446	5.16	6080	24296	4.00	3.94	5.64	2.47
1963	NFL	Jim Brown	cle	291	1863	6.40	6112	24772	4.05	3.94	11.74	5.14
1962	NFL	Jim Taylor	gnb	272	1474	5.42	6064	24682	4.07	4.01	6.33	2.77
1961	NFL	Jim Taylor	gnb	243	1307	5.38	6106	25766	4.22	4.17	4.80	2.10
1960	NFL	Jim Brown	cle	215	1257	5.85	5091	20767	4.08	4.00	7.79	3.17
1959	NFL	Bobby Mitchell	cle	131	743	5.67	4901	20689	4.22	4.18	3.98	1.49
1958	NFL	Jim Brown	cle	257	1527	5.94	4805	20338	4.23	4.14	9.66	3.62
1957	NFL	Jim Brown	cle	202	942	4.66	5152	20115	3.90	3.87	3.10	1.16
1956	NFL	Lenny Moore	clt	86	649	7.55	5453	22413	4.11	4.06	5.51	2.06
1955	NFL	Fred Morrison	cle	156	824	5.28	5305	21177	3.99	3.95	3.91	1.47
1954	NFL	Joe Perry	sfo	173	1049	6.06	4775	18982	3.98	3.90	7.85	2.94
1953	NFL	Skeets Quinlan	ram	97	705	7.27	4817	19245	4.00	3.93	6.73	2.52
1952	NFL	Hugh McElhenny	sfo	98	684	6.98	5069	19320	3.81	3.75	6.25	2.34
1951	NFL	Dan Towler	ram	126	854	6.78	5402	21883	4.05	3.99	6.51	2.44
1950	NFL	Marion Motley	cle	140	810	5.79	5793	24075	4.16	4.12	4.04	1.64
1949	NFL	Tony Canadeo	gnb	208	1052	5.06	4641	18072	3.89	3.84	5.46	1.71
1948	NFL	Charley Trippi	crd	128	690	5.39	4549	18178	4.00	3.96	4.04	1.26
1947	NFL	Kenny Washington	ram	60	444	7.40	4281	16678	3.90	3.85	4.98	1.56
1946	NFL	Pat Harder	crd	106	545	5.14	4159	13809	3.32	3.27	4.76	1.49
1945	NFL	Steve Van Buren	phi	143	832	5.82	3618	12272	3.39	3.29	9.98	3.12
1944	NFL	Steve Van Buren	phi	80	444	5.55	3724	11899	3.20	3.14	5.17	1.78
1943	NFL	Ward Cuff	nyg	80	523	6.54	2945	9464	3.21	3.12	9.28	2.90
1942	NFL	Merl Condit	bkn	129	647	5.02	4052	13541	3.34	3.29	5.50	1.72
1941	NFL	George McAfee	chi	65	474	7.29	4076	12840	3.15	3.08	6.71	2.10
1940	NFL	Dick Todd	was	76	408	5.37	4136	13160	3.18	3.14	4.09	1.28
1939	NFL	Bill Osmanski	chi	121	699	5.78	4075	13269	3.26	3.18	7.71	2.41
1938	NFL	Cecil Isbell	gnb	85	445	5.24	4143	13708	3.31	3.27	4.04	1.26
1937	NFL	Ernie Caddel	det	76	429	5.64	4262	13959	3.28	3.23	4.30	1.34
1936	NFL	Ernie Caddel	det	91	580	6.37	4453	15370	3.45	3.39	6.10	1.71
1935	NFL	Ernie Caddel	det	87	450	5.17	4116	12340	3.00	2.95	4.70	1.32
1934	NFL	Beattie Feathers	chi	119	1004	8.44	4441	16967	3.82	3.69	12.71	4.37
1933	NFL	Cliff Battles	was	136	737	5.42	4118	13792	3.35	3.28	7.07	2.21
1932	NFL	Bob Campiglio	sis	104	504	4.85	3238	10549	3.26	3.21	5.27	1.32
1969	AFL	Dickie Post	sdg	182	873	4.80	4254	17142	4.03	4.00	3.43	1.07
1968	AFL	Robert Holmes	kan	174	866	4.98	4435	17586	3.97	3.92	4.13	1.29
1967	AFL	Hoyle Granger	oti	236	1194	5.06	3710	14553	3.92	3.85	7.72	2.17
1966	AFL	Jim Nance	nwe	299	1458	4.88	3648	14633	4.01	3.93	7.72	2.17
1965	AFL	Paul Lowe	sdg	222	1121	5.05	3203	12173	3.80	3.71	9.30	2.33
1964	AFL	Sid Blanks	oti	145	756	5.21	3113	12343	3.96	3.90	6.10	1.53
1963	AFL	Keith Lincoln	sdg	128	826	6.45	3066	12663	4.13	4.03	10.12	2.53
1962	AFL	Cookie Gilchrist	buf	214	1096	5.12	3285	14149	4.31	4.25	5.67	1.42
1961	AFL	Jack Spikes	kan	39	334	8.56	3218	12829	3.99	3.93	5.62	1.40
1960	AFL	Paul Lowe	sdg	136	855	6.29	3391	14003	4.13	4.04	9.01	2.25
1949	AAFC	Joe Perry	sfo	115	783	6.81	3045	12872	4.23	4.13	10.13	2.22
1948	AAFC	Johnny Strzykalski	sfo	141	915	6.49	3975	18161	4.57	4.50	7.06	1.77
1947	AAFC	Spec Sanders	naa	231	1432	6.20	3896	16868	4.33	4.21	11.78	2.95
1946	AAFC	Marion Motley	cle	73	601	8.23	3946	13399	3.40	3.30	9.12	2.28

What do you think? Also, feel free to sort the table by any category you like: the final column arguably is the best way to view the best YPC seasons in league history.

{ 0 comments }