In each of the last two years, I’ve derived implied SRS ratings for NFL teams based on the Vegas point spreads (I also do the same for college football teams). Well, in late April, CG Technology released lines for 238 NFL games. Things have changed since late April, of course, but for now, let’s work with that data.

For the third straight year, Seattle, Denver, New England, and Green Bay are ranked among the top five teams in the NFL. And before you ask, yes, we will get to the Tom Brady issue in a few moments. The Seahawks are underdogs in just one game this year, and even in that game, Seattle is a just 1-point underdog in Green Bay. The Packers are underdogs in just one game, too: Green Bay is a 1.5-point underdog during a week 8 trip to Denver. On the other side, the Raiders aren’t favored in a game all year: the closest is a pick’em when the Jets come to Oakland.

As a reminder, we can use the Simple Rating System to take all 238 point spreads and derive ratings. But as a sign of how good Vegas viewed Seattle, consider these four Seahawks road lines:

• The Seahawks are favored by 3.5 points in St. Louis; the Rams are favored in every other home game.

• The Seahawks are favored by 1.5 points in Dallas. The Cowboys were (this game occurs during Brady’s suspension now) a pick’em when the Patriots visit in week 5, and are 2.5-point favorites in every other home game.

• The Seahawks are favored by 1.5 points in San Francisco. The 49ers are a pick’em when the Packers come to town, but otherwise, are favored by at least 2 points in every other home game.

• The Seahawks are favored by 4.5 points when they travel to Minnesota. Other than being 3-point dogs against the Packers, the Vikings are not home underdogs in any other game.

Here’s how to read the table below. According to the Vegas lines from April 25th, Seattle is the best team in the NFL. Vegas provided lines for 15 games, and on average, Seattle is 4.4 points better than its opponent in those games (after awarding 3 points to the home team in each game). On average, Seattle’s opponent is 1.0 point above average, which means Seattle is 5.4 points better than the average team. Seattle’s schedule is the 5th toughest in the NFL.

• Note that the SOS is based on only the games for which Vegas provided points spreads. That means all week 17 games were excluded, along with (for whatever reason) the Carolina @ New Orleans game in week 3 and the Green Bay @ Carolina game in week 9. If we include those games, what happens?

• Well, the Cardinals face Seattle in week 17, so their schedule gets more difficult. The Dolphins (Patriots), Titans (Colts), Chargers (Broncos), and Vikings (Packers) also see their schedules get a little harder. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (Raiders), Texans (Jaguars), and Colts see their schedules improve.

• What if Brady misses 4 games? Well, Bill Barnwell noted that the Patriots/Steelers line moved by 5 points, from New England -6.5 to New England -1.5 with the news that Jimmy Garoppolo would be starting. Let’s re-run the SOS numbers with all 256 games and the Brady adjustments (i.e., the Steelers, Bills, Jaguars, and Cowboys now face a team with an SRS rating of -1.4, rather than 3.6). Note that no team’s SRS rating should change as a result of these changes: missing games don’t impact the SRS (that’s why this implied method works for college teams), and the Brady Patriots are a different team than the non-Brady Patriots.

The Cardinals now have the toughest schedule in the NFL, while the Steelers — by losing a Brady game and gaining a Browns game — drop from having the toughest to the 8th toughest schedule. NFC West teams have four of the five toughest schedules, while the non-Jaguars AFC South teams have the three easiest ones.

Finally, here are the results for the 238 games that CG Technology released a spread. Here’s how to read it: In week 1, the Seahawks are on the road to play the Rams, and the line is -3.5. That means the Seahawks have a location-adjusted MOV of +6.5, or are 6.5 points better than the Rams. St. Louis has an SOS of +0.7, which means the Seahawks receive a single-game SRS of +7.2 for this game.