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Belichick is ecstatic after checking out his team’s schedule.

After the release of the 2019 Schedule, the next big item on the agenda is figuring out who are the best and worst teams in the NFL. Every year, CG Technology releases point spreads for each of the first 240 games of the NFL season (i.e., spreads for every game during each of the first 16 weeks). And, every year, I then use those weekly ratings to derive the Vegas ratings are for each team. Hence the title of today’s post: we can use the Vegas point spreads in each game to derive the implied ratings by CG Technology for each team.

The way to do this is to take the point spread in each game, adjust for home field (except for the five international games), and then determine by how many points Vegas thinks Team A is better than Team B. For example, when the Jets are favored by 6 points in a home game against the Dolphins, we can take this to mean that Vegas thinks New York is about three points better than Miami. When we see that the Jets and Dolphins game is a pick’em for the matchup in Miami, this helps reinforce that view. And when Vegas says the Jets are a pick’em against the Browns at home, that tells us that Vegas thinks the Jets are about 3 points worse than the Browns *and* that the Dolphins are about 6 points worse than Cleveland. Using the iterative SRS process, and because the transitive property of point spreads applies, we can generate team ratings based on the 240 point spreads involved.

Here’s how to read the table below, in each case excluding week 17 action. After adjusting for home field advantage, the Patriots are expected to beat their average opponent by 6.6 points. On average, New England’s opponents (after adjusting for *their* strength of schedule) are 1.0 points below average, which means the Patriots are expected to be 5.5 points better than average (difference due to rounding). That’s the best in the league; the worst team in the league is the Cardinals.

RkTeamGExp MOVExp SOSExp SRS
1New England Patriots156.6-15.5
2Los Angeles Rams155.40.15.4
3Kansas City Chiefs155.20.25.4
4New Orleans Saints15505
5Los Angeles Chargers153.1-0.32.9
6Chicago Bears151.90.72.5
7Philadelphia Eagles152.9-0.52.4
8Indianapolis Colts152.302.3
9Green Bay Packers151.60.31.9
10Seattle Seahawks151.80.21.9
11Minnesota Vikings151.50.21.7
12Dallas Cowboys151.50.21.7
13Pittsburgh Steelers152-0.41.5
14Houston Texans15-0.10.90.7
15Baltimore Ravens150.8-0.30.5
16Atlanta Falcons15-0.40.80.4
17Cleveland Browns150.8-0.50.4
18Carolina Panthers15-0.50-0.5
19San Francisco 49ers15-0.60-0.6
20Tennessee Titans15-1.30.4-0.9
21Jacksonville Jaguars15-1.10-1
22Denver Broncos15-2.40.9-1.5
23New York Jets15-1.7-0.8-2.5
24Tampa Bay Buccaneers15-3.40.3-3.1
25Detroit Lions15-3.40.1-3.3
26Washington Redskins15-3-0.3-3.3
27Buffalo Bills15-2.7-0.6-3.3
28Oakland Raiders15-4.20.8-3.4
29New York Giants15-2.8-0.8-3.6
30Cincinnati Bengals15-4-0.3-4.3
31Miami Dolphins15-4.7-0.4-5.1
32Arizona Cardinals15-5.90.1-5.8

We can also take these generated ratings to produce full-season Strength of Schedule ratings. The only changes we need to make are to include week 17 games and also make these ratings adjusted for home field. You might think we don’t need to adjust for home field, but given that there are 5 neutral site games, it means 10 teams will have an uneven number of home and road games.

When we do that, we see that the Patriots have the easiest schedule in the NFL this year. Note that to be clear, this is NOT because New England’s opponents are expected to be worse because they played New England; after all, these schedules are derived by iteration, which means New England’s opponents’ ratings are adjusted for that fact. And as you can see, the entire AFC East has a very easy schedule — the Patriots schedule is just easier than the rest of the AFC East because New England gets two games against a non-Patriots AFC East foe, while the rest of the AFC East has two games against the Patriots.

The AFC East schedule this year is very easy for three reasons: the AFC East is the worst division in the NFL (average SRS rating of -1.3), and the AFC East plays the two other worst divisions in the NFL: the NFC East and AFC North. The full SOS ratings below, and here’s how to read it: The Oakland Raiders have the toughest schedule in 2019, with an average opponent being 0.9 points harder than average (the Raiders also have only 7 home games, which is included in that average). Oakland is in the AFC West, and that division faces the AFC South and NFC North this year.

RkTeamSOSDivisionOpp Divisions
1Oakland Raiders0.9AFC WestAFCS; NFCN
2Denver Broncos0.7AFC WestAFCS; NFCN
3Houston Texans0.6AFC SouthAFCW; NFCS
4Atlanta Falcons0.6NFC SouthNFCW; AFCS
5Chicago Bears0.5NFC NorthNFCNE; AFCW
6Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.5NFC SouthNFCW; AFCS
7Arizona Cardinals0.4NFC WestNFCS; AFCN
8Tennessee Titans0.4AFC SouthAFCW; NFCS
9Jacksonville Jaguars0.4AFC SouthAFCW; NFCS
10Minnesota Vikings0.3NFC NorthNFCNE; AFCW
11Los Angeles Chargers0.3AFC WestAFCS; NFCN
12Detroit Lions0.2NFC NorthNFCNE; AFCW
13Kansas City Chiefs0.2AFC WestAFCS; NFCN
14Carolina Panthers0.1NFC SouthNFCW; AFCS
15Seattle Seahawks0.1NFC WestNFCS; AFCN
16San Francisco 49ers0.1NFC WestNFCS; AFCN
17Green Bay Packers0.1NFC NorthNFCNE; AFCW
18Miami Dolphins0AFC EastAFCN; NFCE
19New Orleans Saints0NFC SouthNFCW; AFCS
20Indianapolis Colts-0.1AFC SouthAFCW; NFCS
21Dallas Cowboys-0.1NFC EastNFCN; AFCE
22Los Angeles Rams-0.1NFC WestNFCS; AFCN
23Washington Redskins-0.2NFC EastNFCN; AFCE
24Baltimore Ravens-0.2AFC NorthAFCE; NFCW
25Pittsburgh Steelers-0.4AFC NorthAFCE; NFCW
26Cincinnati Bengals-0.4AFC NorthAFCE; NFCW
27New York Giants-0.6NFC EastNFCN; AFCE
28Philadelphia Eagles-0.7NFC EastNFCN; AFCE
29Buffalo Bills-0.7AFC EastAFCN; NFCE
30Cleveland Browns-0.7AFC NorthAFCE; NFCW
31New York Jets-0.9AFC EastAFCN; NFCE
32New England Patriots-1.3AFC EastAFCN; NFCE

As you can see, New England’s schedule is last in the table, and by a large margin (an average opponent that is 1.3 points weaker than average). This isn’t so much the Patriots “fault” as a fact that New England is simply the beneficiary of a lot of good fortune. Only two games each season are assigned based on last year’s record, and New England gets Kansas City (at home) and Houston (away) in those games. But the other 14 games all come against the three worst divisions in the NFL, which is true of all other AFC East teams. Here are the ratings for each division:

DivisionAvg SRS Rating
AFC West0.9
NFC North0.7
NFC South0.4
AFC South0.3
NFC West0.2
AFC North-0.5
NFC East-0.7
AFC East-1.3

The AFC West, meanwhile, in addition to being the toughest division in the NFL by SRS, faces the second toughest division in the AFC (the South) and then the toughest division in the NFC (the North). So the Raiders, who don’t benefit by playing themselves, have the toughest schedule, while the Broncos have the second toughest.

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