On Wednesday, Jason Lisk came up with a set of power rankings based on the point spread for nearly every game this season (spreads for the games in the final week of the season have not yet been released).
We can use the SRS to come up with the implied ratings for each team (this is what Lisk did, although I don’t think he used the SRS). So how do we come up with the SRS ratings? The point spread in each game provides an implied strength margin (“ISM”) between the two teams: When the Jaguars are 14-point underdogs in Denver, that implies that Denver is 11 points better than Jacksonville. If we treat each ISM like we would margin of victory, then we can use the SRS to come up with team ratings. For those who need a primer on what the SRS is, you can read about it here; the rest of you can skip to the ratings:
Rk | Team | ISM | SOS | SRS |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Denver Broncos | 5.4 | -0.9 | 4.5 |
2 | Seattle Seahawks | 4.8 | -0.4 | 4.5 |
3 | New England Patriots | 4.1 | 0.2 | 4.3 |
4 | San Francisco 49ers | 4.3 | -0.1 | 4.2 |
5 | Green Bay Packers | 2.2 | 0.9 | 3.1 |
6 | Atlanta Falcons | 2 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
7 | Baltimore Ravens | 1.6 | 0.5 | 2.1 |
8 | New Orleans Saints | 1.6 | 0.5 | 2.1 |
9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.8 | -0.1 | 1.7 |
10 | Houston Texans | 2.3 | -0.9 | 1.4 |
11 | New York Giants | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
12 | Chicago Bears | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
13 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1 | 0.1 | 1 |
14 | Washington Redskins | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
15 | Minnesota Vikings | -0.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
16 | Dallas Cowboys | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
17 | Detroit Lions | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
18 | Miami Dolphins | -0.5 | 0.2 | -0.3 |
19 | Carolina Panthers | -1 | 0.6 | -0.4 |
20 | San Diego Chargers | -0.2 | -0.8 | -1 |
21 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.5 | 0.5 | -1 |
22 | Philadelphia Eagles | -1.3 | 0.1 | -1.2 |
23 | Indianapolis Colts | -0.4 | -0.8 | -1.2 |
24 | St. Louis Rams | -1.8 | 0 | -1.7 |
25 | New York Jets | -1.8 | -0.1 | -1.9 |
26 | Kansas City Chiefs | -1.1 | -1.1 | -2.3 |
27 | Buffalo Bills | -2.8 | -0.2 | -3 |
28 | Cleveland Browns | -3.5 | 0.2 | -3.2 |
29 | Arizona Cardinals | -3.6 | 0.1 | -3.5 |
30 | Tennessee Titans | -3.3 | -0.9 | -4.2 |
31 | Oakland Raiders | -4.3 | -0.7 | -5 |
32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -5.4 | -0.9 | -6.3 |
One interesting way to use the SRS is to see which teams have the hardest schedules. Pre-season strength of schedule is essentially meaningless when based on last year’s record, but the SOS ratings here are based on the perceived strengths of each team. In my opinion, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better set of strength of schedule ratings in May than what we see here (other than the fact that they exclude week 17).
As always, the table is sortable, making it easy to see that the Vikings have the hardest schedule in the league. Only three of Minnesota’s opponents have negative SRS ratings, and frankly, I’m probably higher on all three of those teams (Carolina, Philadelphia, Cleveland) than most. Green Bay’s games against the Eagles and Browns are the only ones that come in below average in terms of opponent strength. Minnesota and Green Bay have much harder schedules than the rest of the league because they face the AFC North and NFC East, the other NFC North teams, and one each of Seattle/San Francisco and Atlanta/Carolina (while the Vikings escape Atlanta, their schedule is harder than the Packers because they have to face Green Bay twice and the Packers final game is at Chicago (while Minnesota’s last game is home for Detroit)).Meanwhile, the teams in the AFC West and AFC South have very easy schedules: that’s because they play each other. Ten of the Jaguars opponents are below-average this year, although the other five are Denver, Seattle, San Francisco, and two games against the Texans. Jacksonville’s 16th game is against the Colts, who — despite Andrew Luck, the 11-win season from last year, and the Irsay/Grigson campaign to sign every mediocre free agent out there — are graded as 1.2 points below average.
The table below shows each game in the first sixteen weeks of the 2013 season and some useful information. For example, here’s what the Broncos/Jaguars line says: In week 6, Denver hosts Jacksonville. The line is -14, which means the Broncos are 14-point favorites. Denver’s SRS is 4.5 while the Jacksonville’s SRS is -6.3. Therefore, the line predicted by the SRS would be Denver -13.8 (since the Jags are 10.8 points worse than the Broncos and on the road). The difference between the actual line and the SRS line is -0.2 points. By definition, the sum of all the differences between the actual lines and SRS lines must be 0, since the SRS lines were generated from the actual lines.
Wk | Team | Opp | H/R | Line | Tm SRS | Opp SRS | SRS Line | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6 | Denver Broncos | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | -14 | 4.5 | -6.3 | -13.8 | -0.2 |
3 | Seattle Seahawks | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | -14 | 4.5 | -6.3 | -13.8 | -0.2 |
3 | Denver Broncos | Oakland Raiders | Home | -13.5 | 4.5 | -5 | -12.5 | -1 |
6 | Seattle Seahawks | Tennessee Titans | Home | -11 | 4.5 | -4.2 | -11.7 | 0.7 |
8 | San Francisco 49ers | Jacksonville Jaguars | Lond | -10.5 | 4.2 | -6.3 | -10.5 | 0 |
14 | Denver Broncos | Tennessee Titans | Home | -10 | 4.5 | -4.2 | -11.7 | 1.7 |
12 | Houston Texans | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | -10 | 1.4 | -6.3 | -10.7 | 0.7 |
6 | San Francisco 49ers | Arizona Cardinals | Home | -10 | 4.2 | -3.5 | -10.7 | 0.7 |
10 | New York Giants | Oakland Raiders | Home | -9 | 1.3 | -5 | -9.3 | 0.3 |
16 | Seattle Seahawks | Arizona Cardinals | Home | -8.5 | 4.5 | -3.5 | -11 | 2.5 |
14 | New England Patriots | Cleveland Browns | Home | -8.5 | 4.3 | -3.2 | -10.5 | 2 |
2 | New England Patriots | New York Jets | Home | -8 | 4.3 | -1.9 | -9.2 | 1.2 |
11 | Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | -7.5 | 4.5 | -2.3 | -9.8 | 2.3 |
11 | Houston Texans | Oakland Raiders | Home | -7.5 | 1.4 | -5 | -9.4 | 1.9 |
7 | Green Bay Packers | Cleveland Browns | Home | -7.5 | 3.1 | -3.2 | -9.3 | 1.8 |
13 | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Rams | Home | -7.5 | 4.2 | -1.7 | -8.9 | 1.4 |
4 | Denver Broncos | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | -7.5 | 4.5 | -1.2 | -8.7 | 1.2 |
2 | Houston Texans | Tennessee Titans | Home | -7.5 | 1.4 | -4.2 | -8.6 | 1.1 |
3 | New Orleans Saints | Arizona Cardinals | Home | -7.5 | 2.1 | -3.5 | -8.6 | 1.1 |
3 | San Francisco 49ers | Indianapolis Colts | Home | -7.5 | 4.2 | -1.2 | -8.4 | 0.9 |
2 | Baltimore Ravens | Cleveland Browns | Home | -7.5 | 2.1 | -3.2 | -8.4 | 0.9 |
3 | New England Patriots | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | -7.5 | 4.3 | -1 | -8.3 | 0.8 |
1 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Tennessee Titans | Home | -7 | 1.7 | -4.2 | -8.9 | 1.9 |
13 | Dallas Cowboys | Oakland Raiders | Home | -7 | 0.6 | -5 | -8.6 | 1.6 |
9 | Seattle Seahawks | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | -7 | 4.5 | -1 | -8.5 | 1.5 |
10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Buffalo Bills | Home | -7 | 1.7 | -3 | -7.7 | 0.7 |
8 | New England Patriots | Miami Dolphins | Home | -7 | 4.3 | -0.3 | -7.6 | 0.6 |
5 | Atlanta Falcons | New York Jets | Home | -7 | 2.6 | -1.9 | -7.5 | 0.5 |
2 | Atlanta Falcons | St. Louis Rams | Home | -7 | 2.6 | -1.7 | -7.3 | 0.3 |
10 | Green Bay Packers | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | -7 | 3.1 | -1.2 | -7.2 | 0.2 |
1 | Indianapolis Colts | Oakland Raiders | Home | -7 | -1.2 | -5 | -6.9 | -0.1 |
7 | San Francisco 49ers | Tennessee Titans | Road | -7 | 4.2 | -4.2 | -5.4 | -1.6 |
1 | Denver Broncos | Baltimore Ravens | Home | -7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | -5.4 | -1.6 |
1 | New England Patriots | Buffalo Bills | Road | -7 | 4.3 | -3 | -4.3 | -2.7 |
15 | Denver Broncos | San Diego Chargers | Home | -6.5 | 4.5 | -1 | -8.5 | 2 |
8 | New Orleans Saints | Buffalo Bills | Home | -6.5 | 2.1 | -3 | -8.2 | 1.7 |
5 | St. Louis Rams | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | -6.5 | -1.7 | -6.3 | -7.6 | 1.1 |
3 | Minnesota Vikings | Cleveland Browns | Home | -6.5 | 0.6 | -3.2 | -6.8 | 0.3 |
10 | San Francisco 49ers | Carolina Panthers | Home | -6 | 4.2 | -0.4 | -7.5 | 1.5 |
11 | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns | Home | -6 | 1 | -3.2 | -7.3 | 1.3 |
12 | Baltimore Ravens | New York Jets | Home | -6 | 2.1 | -1.9 | -7.1 | 1.1 |
11 | Seattle Seahawks | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -6 | 4.5 | 0.6 | -6.9 | 0.9 |
8 | Denver Broncos | Washington Redskins | Home | -6 | 4.5 | 0.8 | -6.7 | 0.7 |
7 | Atlanta Falcons | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | -6 | 2.6 | -1 | -6.6 | 0.6 |
14 | New York Jets | Oakland Raiders | Home | -6 | -1.9 | -5 | -6.1 | 0.1 |
7 | Seattle Seahawks | Arizona Cardinals | Road | -6 | 4.5 | -3.5 | -5 | -1 |
5 | San Francisco 49ers | Houston Texans | Home | -5.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | -5.8 | 0.3 |
16 | San Diego Chargers | Oakland Raiders | Home | -4.5 | -1 | -5 | -7.1 | 2.6 |
6 | Houston Texans | St. Louis Rams | Home | -4.5 | 1.4 | -1.7 | -6.1 | 1.6 |
13 | Cleveland Browns | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | -4.5 | -3.2 | -6.3 | -6.1 | 1.6 |
13 | Indianapolis Colts | Tennessee Titans | Home | -4.5 | -1.2 | -4.2 | -6.1 | 1.6 |
14 | Washington Redskins | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | -4.5 | 0.8 | -2.3 | -6.1 | 1.6 |
8 | Cincinnati Bengals | New York Jets | Home | -4.5 | 1 | -1.9 | -6 | 1.5 |
5 | Green Bay Packers | Detroit Lions | Home | -4.5 | 3.1 | 0.2 | -5.9 | 1.4 |
6 | Kansas City Chiefs | Oakland Raiders | Home | -4.5 | -2.3 | -5 | -5.8 | 1.3 |
9 | Houston Texans | Indianapolis Colts | Home | -4.5 | 1.4 | -1.2 | -5.6 | 1.1 |
9 | St. Louis Rams | Tennessee Titans | Home | -4.5 | -1.7 | -4.2 | -5.5 | 1 |
4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Arizona Cardinals | Home | -4.5 | -1 | -3.5 | -5.5 | 1 |
12 | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -4.5 | 3.1 | 0.6 | -5.5 | 1 |
4 | New Orleans Saints | Miami Dolphins | Home | -4.5 | 2.1 | -0.3 | -5.4 | 0.9 |
2 | Green Bay Packers | Washington Redskins | Home | -4.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | -5.3 | 0.8 |
3 | Dallas Cowboys | St. Louis Rams | Home | -4.5 | 0.6 | -1.7 | -5.3 | 0.8 |
14 | Cincinnati Bengals | Indianapolis Colts | Home | -4.5 | 1 | -1.2 | -5.2 | 0.7 |
1 | Washington Redskins | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | -4.5 | 0.8 | -1.2 | -4.9 | 0.4 |
1 | St. Louis Rams | Arizona Cardinals | Home | -4.5 | -1.7 | -3.5 | -4.8 | 0.3 |
14 | Houston Texans | Jacksonville Jaguars | Road | -4.5 | 1.4 | -6.3 | -4.7 | 0.2 |
8 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Oakland Raiders | Road | -4.5 | 1.7 | -5 | -3.7 | -0.8 |
7 | Miami Dolphins | Buffalo Bills | Home | -4 | -0.3 | -3 | -5.8 | 1.8 |
9 | New England Patriots | Pittsburgh Steelers | Home | -4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | -5.6 | 1.6 |
5 | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | -4 | 1.3 | -1.2 | -5.4 | 1.4 |
13 | Philadelphia Eagles | Arizona Cardinals | Home | -4 | -1.2 | -3.5 | -5.3 | 1.3 |
6 | New England Patriots | New Orleans Saints | Home | -4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | -5.2 | 1.2 |
9 | Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | Home | -4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | -4.9 | 0.9 |
10 | New Orleans Saints | Dallas Cowboys | Home | -4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | -4.5 | 0.5 |
1 | San Francisco 49ers | Green Bay Packers | Home | -4 | 4.2 | 3.1 | -4.1 | 0.1 |
13 | Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | Road | -4 | 4.5 | -2.3 | -3.8 | -0.2 |
7 | New England Patriots | New York Jets | Road | -4 | 4.3 | -1.9 | -3.2 | -0.8 |
8 | Seattle Seahawks | St. Louis Rams | Road | -4 | 4.5 | -1.7 | -3.2 | -0.8 |
8 | Atlanta Falcons | Arizona Cardinals | Road | -4 | 2.6 | -3.5 | -3.1 | -0.9 |
4 | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Rams | Road | -4 | 4.2 | -1.7 | -2.9 | -1.1 |
4 | Washington Redskins | Oakland Raiders | Road | -4 | 0.8 | -5 | -2.8 | -1.2 |
5 | Seattle Seahawks | Indianapolis Colts | Road | -4 | 4.5 | -1.2 | -2.6 | -1.4 |
4 | Baltimore Ravens | Buffalo Bills | Road | -4 | 2.1 | -3 | -2.2 | -1.8 |
14 | New Orleans Saints | Carolina Panthers | Home | -3.5 | 2.1 | -0.4 | -5.5 | 2 |
13 | Seattle Seahawks | New Orleans Saints | Home | -3.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | -5.4 | 1.9 |
10 | Tennessee Titans | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | -3.5 | -4.2 | -6.3 | -5.1 | 1.6 |
14 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Miami Dolphins | Home | -3.5 | 1.7 | -0.3 | -5 | 1.5 |
15 | Minnesota Vikings | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | -3.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 | -4.8 | 1.3 |
9 | Washington Redskins | San Diego Chargers | Home | -3.5 | 0.8 | -1 | -4.7 | 1.2 |
16 | San Francisco 49ers | Atlanta Falcons | Home | -3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | -4.6 | 1.1 |
14 | Baltimore Ravens | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -3.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | -4.5 | 1 |
11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Detroit Lions | Home | -3.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | -4.5 | 1 |
7 | Carolina Panthers | St. Louis Rams | Home | -3.5 | -0.4 | -1.7 | -4.4 | 0.9 |
12 | Detroit Lions | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | -3.5 | 0.2 | -1 | -4.2 | 0.7 |
3 | New York Jets | Buffalo Bills | Home | -3.5 | -1.9 | -3 | -4.1 | 0.6 |
3 | Baltimore Ravens | Houston Texans | Home | -3.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | -3.7 | 0.2 |
7 | Denver Broncos | Indianapolis Colts | Road | -3.5 | 4.5 | -1.2 | -2.7 | -0.8 |
7 | San Diego Chargers | Jacksonville Jaguars | Road | -3.5 | -1 | -6.3 | -2.4 | -1.1 |
9 | Baltimore Ravens | Cleveland Browns | Road | -3.5 | 2.1 | -3.2 | -2.4 | -1.1 |
4 | Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | Road | -3.5 | -1.2 | -6.3 | -2.2 | -1.3 |
1 | Seattle Seahawks | Carolina Panthers | Road | -3.5 | 4.5 | -0.4 | -1.8 | -1.7 |
14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Buffalo Bills | Home | -3 | -1 | -3 | -5.1 | 2.1 |
15 | Atlanta Falcons | Washington Redskins | Home | -3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | -4.8 | 1.8 |
15 | Carolina Panthers | New York Jets | Home | -3 | -0.4 | -1.9 | -4.6 | 1.6 |
16 | Green Bay Packers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Home | -3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | -4.4 | 1.4 |
2 | Oakland Raiders | Jacksonville Jaguars | Home | -3 | -5 | -6.3 | -4.3 | 1.3 |
16 | New York Jets | Cleveland Browns | Home | -3 | -1.9 | -3.2 | -4.3 | 1.3 |
3 | Philadelphia Eagles | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | -3 | -1.2 | -2.3 | -4.1 | 1.1 |
10 | Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | -3 | 2.1 | 1 | -4.1 | 1.1 |
10 | Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | Home | -3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | -4 | 1 |
11 | Miami Dolphins | San Diego Chargers | Home | -3 | -0.3 | -1 | -3.7 | 0.7 |
7 | New York Giants | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | -3.7 | 0.7 |
14 | Chicago Bears | Dallas Cowboys | Home | -3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | -3.6 | 0.6 |
13 | Carolina Panthers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | -3 | -0.4 | -1 | -3.6 | 0.6 |
14 | Green Bay Packers | Atlanta Falcons | Home | -3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | -3.5 | 0.5 |
1 | Chicago Bears | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | -3 | 1.2 | 1 | -3.2 | 0.2 |
13 | Atlanta Falcons | Buffalo Bills | Road | -3 | 2.6 | -3 | -2.6 | -0.4 |
10 | Denver Broncos | San Diego Chargers | Road | -3 | 4.5 | -1 | -2.5 | -0.5 |
15 | San Francisco 49ers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Road | -3 | 4.2 | -1 | -2.2 | -0.8 |
12 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Cleveland Browns | Road | -3 | 1.7 | -3.2 | -1.9 | -1.1 |
10 | Houston Texans | Arizona Cardinals | Road | -3 | 1.4 | -3.5 | -1.9 | -1.1 |
11 | New England Patriots | Carolina Panthers | Road | -3 | 4.3 | -0.4 | -1.6 | -1.4 |
4 | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns | Road | -3 | 1 | -3.2 | -1.3 | -1.7 |
1 | Kansas City Chiefs | Jacksonville Jaguars | Road | -3 | -2.3 | -6.3 | -1.1 | -1.9 |
1 | Houston Texans | San Diego Chargers | Road | -3 | 1.4 | -1 | 0.6 | -3.6 |
6 | Minnesota Vikings | Carolina Panthers | Home | -2.5 | 0.6 | -0.4 | -4 | 1.5 |
8 | Kansas City Chiefs | Cleveland Browns | Home | -2.5 | -2.3 | -3.2 | -3.9 | 1.4 |
12 | New York Giants | Dallas Cowboys | Home | -2.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | -3.7 | 1.2 |
15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | -2.5 | 1.7 | 1 | -3.7 | 1.2 |
2 | Chicago Bears | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -2.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | -3.6 | 1.1 |
3 | Washington Redskins | Detroit Lions | Home | -2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | -3.6 | 1.1 |
10 | Indianapolis Colts | St. Louis Rams | Home | -2.5 | -1.2 | -1.7 | -3.5 | 1 |
3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Chicago Bears | Home | -2.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | -3.5 | 1 |
12 | Atlanta Falcons | New Orleans Saints | Home | -2.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | -3.5 | 1 |
16 | Cincinnati Bengals | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -2.5 | 1 | 0.6 | -3.4 | 0.9 |
13 | Baltimore Ravens | Pittsburgh Steelers | Home | -2.5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | -3.4 | 0.9 |
2 | Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers | Home | -2.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | -3.3 | 0.8 |
6 | San Diego Chargers | Indianapolis Colts | Home | -2.5 | -1 | -1.2 | -3.2 | 0.7 |
16 | Washington Redskins | Dallas Cowboys | Home | -2.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | -3.2 | 0.7 |
6 | Chicago Bears | New York Giants | Home | -2.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | -2.9 | 0.4 |
2 | Philadelphia Eagles | San Diego Chargers | Home | -2.5 | -1.2 | -1 | -2.8 | 0.3 |
14 | San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks | Home | -2.5 | 4.2 | 4.5 | -2.7 | 0.2 |
1 | Detroit Lions | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -2.5 | 0.2 | 0.6 | -2.6 | 0.1 |
1 | Dallas Cowboys | New York Giants | Home | -2.5 | 0.6 | 1.3 | -2.3 | -0.2 |
6 | Cincinnati Bengals | Buffalo Bills | Road | -2.5 | 1 | -3 | -1.1 | -1.4 |
5 | San Diego Chargers | Oakland Raiders | Road | -2.5 | -1 | -5 | -1.1 | -1.4 |
5 | Denver Broncos | Dallas Cowboys | Road | -2.5 | 4.5 | 0.6 | -0.9 | -1.6 |
2 | Detroit Lions | Arizona Cardinals | Road | -2.5 | 0.2 | -3.5 | -0.7 | -1.8 |
7 | Houston Texans | Kansas City Chiefs | Road | -2.5 | 1.4 | -2.3 | -0.7 | -1.8 |
3 | San Diego Chargers | Tennessee Titans | Road | -2.5 | -1 | -4.2 | -0.3 | -2.2 |
15 | New England Patriots | Miami Dolphins | Road | -2 | 4.3 | -0.3 | -1.6 | -0.4 |
6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | -1.5 | -1 | -1.2 | -3.2 | 1.7 |
12 | Miami Dolphins | Carolina Panthers | Home | -1.5 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -3.1 | 1.6 |
9 | Dallas Cowboys | Minnesota Vikings | Home | -1.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | -3 | 1.5 |
10 | Minnesota Vikings | Washington Redskins | Home | -1.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | -2.8 | 1.3 |
5 | Cleveland Browns | Buffalo Bills | Home | -1.5 | -3.2 | -3 | -2.8 | 1.3 |
6 | Dallas Cowboys | Washington Redskins | Home | -1.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | -2.8 | 1.3 |
12 | New England Patriots | Denver Broncos | Home | -1.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | -2.8 | 1.3 |
7 | Washington Redskins | Chicago Bears | Home | -1.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | -2.6 | 1.1 |
7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Baltimore Ravens | Home | -1.5 | 1.7 | 2.1 | -2.6 | 1.1 |
1 | New Orleans Saints | Atlanta Falcons | Home | -1.5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | -2.5 | 1 |
13 | Washington Redskins | New York Giants | Home | -1.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | -2.5 | 1 |
13 | Minnesota Vikings | Chicago Bears | Home | -1.5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | -2.4 | 0.9 |
8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Carolina Panthers | Home | -1.5 | -1 | -0.4 | -2.4 | 0.9 |
10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Miami Dolphins | Home | -1.5 | -1 | -0.3 | -2.3 | 0.8 |
9 | Buffalo Bills | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | -1.5 | -3 | -2.3 | -2.2 | 0.7 |
7 | Detroit Lions | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | -1.5 | 0.2 | 1 | -2.2 | 0.7 |
16 | Detroit Lions | New York Giants | Home | -1.5 | 0.2 | 1.3 | -2 | 0.5 |
11 | Buffalo Bills | New York Jets | Home | -1.5 | -3 | -1.9 | -1.9 | 0.4 |
15 | Chicago Bears | Cleveland Browns | Road | -1.5 | 1.2 | -3.2 | -1.4 | -0.1 |
4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Minnesota Vikings | Lond | -1.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | -1.1 | -0.4 |
9 | New Orleans Saints | New York Jets | Road | -1.5 | 2.1 | -1.9 | -1.1 | -0.4 |
9 | Philadelphia Eagles | Oakland Raiders | Road | -1.5 | -1.2 | -5 | -0.9 | -0.6 |
15 | New Orleans Saints | St. Louis Rams | Road | -1.5 | 2.1 | -1.7 | -0.8 | -0.7 |
6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | New York Jets | Road | -1.5 | 1.7 | -1.9 | -0.6 | -0.9 |
4 | New York Giants | Kansas City Chiefs | Road | -1.5 | 1.3 | -2.3 | -0.6 | -0.9 |
12 | San Francisco 49ers | Washington Redskins | Road | -1.5 | 4.2 | 0.8 | -0.4 | -1.1 |
5 | New England Patriots | Cincinnati Bengals | Road | -1.5 | 4.3 | 1 | -0.3 | -1.2 |
5 | Carolina Panthers | Arizona Cardinals | Road | -1.5 | -0.4 | -3.5 | -0.1 | -1.4 |
2 | New Orleans Saints | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Road | -1.5 | 2.1 | -1 | -0.1 | -1.4 |
1 | Miami Dolphins | Cleveland Browns | Road | -1.5 | -0.3 | -3.2 | 0 | -1.5 |
13 | Green Bay Packers | Detroit Lions | Road | -1.5 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -1.6 |
2 | Dallas Cowboys | Kansas City Chiefs | Road | -1.5 | 0.6 | -2.3 | 0.1 | -1.6 |
1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | New York Jets | Road | -1.5 | -1 | -1.9 | 2.1 | -3.6 |
8 | Detroit Lions | Dallas Cowboys | Home | -1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | -2.6 | 1.6 |
2 | Cincinnati Bengals | Pittsburgh Steelers | Home | -1 | 1 | 1.7 | -2.3 | 1.3 |
16 | St. Louis Rams | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | -1 | -1.7 | -1 | -2.3 | 1.3 |
15 | Tennessee Titans | Arizona Cardinals | Home | -1 | -4.2 | -3.5 | -2.2 | 1.2 |
12 | Oakland Raiders | Tennessee Titans | Home | -1 | -5 | -4.2 | -2.2 | 1.2 |
5 | Chicago Bears | New Orleans Saints | Home | -1 | 1.2 | 2.1 | -2.1 | 1.1 |
6 | Baltimore Ravens | Green Bay Packers | Home | -1 | 2.1 | 3.1 | -2.1 | 1.1 |
4 | Detroit Lions | Chicago Bears | Home | -1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -2 | 1 |
16 | Kansas City Chiefs | Indianapolis Colts | Home | -1 | -2.3 | -1.2 | -1.9 | 0.9 |
9 | Miami Dolphins | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | -1 | -0.3 | 1 | -1.7 | 0.7 |
12 | Kansas City Chiefs | San Diego Chargers | Home | -1 | -2.3 | -1 | -1.7 | 0.7 |
14 | Philadelphia Eagles | Detroit Lions | Home | -1 | -1.2 | 0.2 | -1.6 | 0.6 |
4 | San Diego Chargers | Dallas Cowboys | Home | -1 | -1 | 0.6 | -1.5 | 0.5 |
13 | New York Jets | Miami Dolphins | Home | -1 | -1.9 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 0.3 |
11 | Atlanta Falcons | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Road | -1 | 2.6 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.4 |
6 | Detroit Lions | Cleveland Browns | Road | -1 | 0.2 | -3.2 | -0.4 | -0.6 |
15 | Buffalo Bills | Jacksonville Jaguars | Road | -1 | -3 | -6.3 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
2 | Denver Broncos | New York Giants | Road | -1 | 4.5 | 1.3 | -0.2 | -0.8 |
15 | Seattle Seahawks | New York Giants | Road | -1 | 4.5 | 1.3 | -0.2 | -0.8 |
4 | Seattle Seahawks | Houston Texans | Road | -1 | 4.5 | 1.4 | -0.1 | -0.9 |
11 | Indianapolis Colts | Tennessee Titans | Road | -1 | -1.2 | -4.2 | -0.1 | -0.9 |
12 | Chicago Bears | St. Louis Rams | Road | -1 | 1.2 | -1.7 | 0.1 | -1.1 |
9 | Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | Road | -1 | 2.6 | -0.4 | 0.1 | -1.1 |
3 | Atlanta Falcons | Miami Dolphins | Road | -1 | 2.6 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -1.1 |
2 | Carolina Panthers | Buffalo Bills | Road | -1 | -0.4 | -3 | 0.3 | -1.3 |
15 | Green Bay Packers | Dallas Cowboys | Road | -1 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | -1.5 |
8 | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings | Road | -1 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | -1.5 |
5 | Baltimore Ravens | Miami Dolphins | Road | -1 | 2.1 | -0.3 | 0.6 | -1.6 |
4 | New York Jets | Tennessee Titans | Road | -1 | -1.9 | -4.2 | 0.7 | -1.7 |
3 | New York Giants | Carolina Panthers | Road | -1 | 1.3 | -0.4 | 1.4 | -2.4 |
2 | Indianapolis Colts | Miami Dolphins | Home | 0 | -1.2 | -0.3 | -2.1 | 2.1 |
11 | Chicago Bears | Baltimore Ravens | Home | 0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | -2.1 | 2.1 |
4 | Atlanta Falcons | New England Patriots | Home | 0 | 2.6 | 4.3 | -1.3 | 1.3 |
7 | Philadelphia Eagles | Dallas Cowboys | Home | 0 | -1.2 | 0.6 | -1.3 | 1.3 |
14 | Arizona Cardinals | St. Louis Rams | Home | 0 | -3.5 | -1.7 | -1.2 | 1.2 |
11 | New York Giants | Green Bay Packers | Home | 0 | 1.3 | 3.1 | -1.2 | 1.2 |
10 | Atlanta Falcons | Seattle Seahawks | Home | 0 | 2.6 | 4.5 | -1.1 | 1.1 |
15 | Detroit Lions | Baltimore Ravens | Home | 0 | 0.2 | 2.1 | -1.1 | 1.1 |
11 | Philadelphia Eagles | Washington Redskins | Home | 0 | -1.2 | 0.8 | -1.1 | 1.1 |
5 | Tennessee Titans | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | 0 | -4.2 | -2.3 | -1 | 1 |
13 | San Diego Chargers | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | 0 | -1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
3 | Cincinnati Bengals | Green Bay Packers | Home | 0 | 1 | 3.1 | -1 | 1 |
11 | New Orleans Saints | San Francisco 49ers | Home | 0 | 2.1 | 4.2 | -0.9 | 0.9 |
16 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee Titans | Home | 0 | -6.3 | -4.2 | -0.9 | 0.9 |
16 | Baltimore Ravens | New England Patriots | Home | 0 | 2.1 | 4.3 | -0.8 | 0.8 |
14 | San Diego Chargers | New York Giants | Home | 0 | -1 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 0.8 |
12 | Arizona Cardinals | Indianapolis Colts | Home | 0 | -3.5 | -1.2 | -0.7 | 0.7 |
16 | Philadelphia Eagles | Chicago Bears | Home | 0 | -1.2 | 1.2 | -0.6 | 0.6 |
8 | Philadelphia Eagles | New York Giants | Home | 0 | -1.2 | 1.3 | -0.6 | 0.6 |
16 | Carolina Panthers | New Orleans Saints | Home | 0 | -0.4 | 2.1 | -0.5 | 0.5 |
15 | Indianapolis Colts | Houston Texans | Home | 0 | -1.2 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 0.4 |
15 | Oakland Raiders | Kansas City Chiefs | Home | 0 | -5 | -2.3 | -0.2 | 0.2 |
16 | Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins | Home | 0 | -3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.2 |
11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Arizona Cardinals | Home | 0 | -6.3 | -3.5 | -0.2 | 0.2 |
16 | Denver Broncos | Houston Texans | Road | 0 | 4.5 | 1.4 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
13 | Houston Texans | New England Patriots | Home | 0 | 1.4 | 4.3 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
- We can sort the table by the “difference” column to see some outlier games. The biggest outlier games are in weeks 1; as Lisk noted, the lines build in some risk of injury (or simply risk of not knowing what’s going to happen in the future): if Tom Brady or Peyton Manning miss time with an injury, it’s more likely to be later in the season than in week one. Additionally, if Vegas feels more confident in the early games than the late games, that will lead to some games appearing as outliers in week 1.
- The Chargers (SRS of -1) host Houston (+1.4) in week 1; we would expect from those ratings that San Diego would be 0.6-point favorites. Instead, the Chargers are 3-point underdogs. Similarly, the Jets are projected as just 0.9 points worse than the Bucs. At home in week 1, we would expect New York to be 2.1-point favorites; instead, Darrelle Revis and the Bucs are 1.5-point favorites.
- Two weeks later, the Chargers travel to Tennessee. San Diego (-1) should be a slight favorite over the Titans (-4.2), but in fact are 2.5-point favorites. That’s even weirder when you consider that it’s a 1PM game; if anything, you might expect Tennessee to be a 1-point favorite.
Finally, a quick reminder that I’ve created wallet-sized and iPhone-friendly color-copies of the NFL schedule here.