Just a guess, but I think that question will be asked quite a few times over the next couple of weeks. While the inanity of the discussion that usually follows that question is not something I wish to emulate, there’s no particular reason not to take an in-depth look at Flacco’s career. The table below shows Flacco’s performance in six key metrics — all relative to league average (1.00) — for each season of his career:

As you can see, with the exception of his great interception rate — which justifies its own post during this pre-Super Bowl period — Flacco’s career performance has been rather average. His touchdown rate, like those of many quarterbacks, has bounced up and down throughout his career. His sack rate was below average during his first three years, improved significantly in 2011, and landed right at the league average in 2012.

In the three main statistics — Y/A, NY/A, and ANY/A — Flacco has consistently finished in a tight window around the league average. His ANY/A has been slightly better than his NY/A thanks to that lofty interception rate, but suffice it to say Joe Flacco is, and has been for years, a league average quarterback.

If we look at ESPN’s Total QBR, Flacco ranked 27th as a rookie in 2008, 15th in 2009, and 12th in 2010, signaling a young quarterback improving and on the rise. In 2011, he ranked 14th, perhaps signaling a leveling off, and then this past season, he finished 25th. The positive spin would be that he’s a league-average quarterback, and the negative one (at least prior to this post-season) would have been that he was regressing.

On the other hand, here is how Flacco has performed in the playoffs in each game, as measured by AY/A:

Flacco has been oustanding in the playoffs over the last three years. In seven games, he has averaged 8.8 AY/A and 7.8 Y/A, while throwing 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

Let’s not forget, however, that from 2008 through 2010, his poor play in the postseason caused Jason Lisk to compare him to Kyle Boller, despite his team’s impressive record. That said, perhaps that was just a new version of the SI cover jinx, as Flacco has been great in the postseason since Lisk’s article, at least, for Flacco. How great?

In the regular season this year, Flacco averaged 7.17 AY/A, but in three playoffs games in January he’s averaged 10.89 AY/A; he’s thrown 93 passes this postseason, and since he’s averaged 3.72 AY/A more than we would expect (based on his regular season performance), we could say that he’s gained 346 Adjusted Yards over expectation. Among all quarterbacks with at least 50 regular season passes (to exclude players like Frank Reich), that is the second largest amount of Adjusted Yards over expectation of any quarterback in a single postseason since 1970. The table below shows each quarterback’s number of playoff games, regular season pass attempts, regular season AY/A, and then his cumulative playoff statistics for that year. The final column shows the number of Adjusted Yards provided over average.

Rank	Year	QB	Tm	PG	RS Att	RS AY/A	Att	PYD	TD	INT	AY/A	AY ov Exp
1	2003	Jake Delhomme	car	4	449	6.4	102	987	6	1	10.4	408
2	2012	Joe Flacco	rav	3	531	7.2	93	853	8	0	10.9	346
3	1992	Troy Aikman	dal	3	473	6.9	89	795	8	0	10.7	339
4	1993	Jeff Hostetler	rai	2	419	7.3	39	524	4	0	15.5	318
5	1986	Phil Simms	nyg	3	468	6.2	58	494	8	0	11.3	292
6	1980	Jim Plunkett	rai	4	320	6.1	92	839	7	3	9.2	287
7	1988	Joe Montana	sfo	3	397	7.3	90	823	8	1	10.4	283
8	2007	Eli Manning	nyg	4	529	5.5	119	854	6	1	7.8	278
9	1979	Vince Ferragamo	ram	3	110	3.9	69	585	3	3	7.4	242
10	1985	Jim McMahon	chi	3	313	7	66	636	3	0	10.5	233
11	1989	Joe Montana	sfo	3	386	9.5	83	800	11	0	12.3	228
12	1991	Erik Kramer	det	2	265	5.6	71	590	4	1	8.8	224
13	1978	Terry Bradshaw	pit	3	368	7	78	790	8	4	9.9	224
14	2009	Kurt Warner	crd	2	513	7.1	59	584	5	1	10.8	220
15	1981	Don Strock	mia	1	130	5.1	43	403	4	1	10.2	219
16	1974	Terry Bradshaw	pit	3	148	3.8	50	394	3	1	8.2	218
17	1981	Scott Brunner	nyg	2	190	3.1	51	386	6	3	7.3	215
18	1995	Rodney Peete	phi	2	375	4.9	30	298	3	0	11.9	210
19	1985	Tony Eason	nwe	4	299	5.4	48	367	5	0	9.7	208
20	2008	Kurt Warner	crd	4	598	7.6	135	1147	11	3	9.1	204
21	2000	Trent Dilfer	rav	4	226	5.5	73	590	3	1	8.3	202
22	2011	Tim Tebow	den	2	271	6.3	47	452	2	0	10.5	197
23	2009	Mark Sanchez	nyj	3	364	4.9	68	539	4	2	7.8	196
24	1976	Terry Bradshaw	pit	2	192	5.1	53	440	3	1	8.6	187
25	1982	Lynn Dickey	gnb	2	218	6.4	59	592	5	3	9.4	178
26	1970	Johnny Unitas	clt	3	321	5.2	56	478	4	2	8.4	174
27	2010	Matt Hasselbeck	sea	2	444	5.6	81	530	7	1	7.7	173
28	1990	Jim Kelly	buf	3	346	8.4	82	851	5	2	10.5	173
29	1989	John Elway	den	3	416	6.3	82	732	4	3	8.3	164
30	1979	Terry Bradshaw	pit	3	472	6.6	82	758	6	4	8.5	156
31	1994	Dan Marino	mia	2	615	7	67	519	5	0	9.2	152
32	1982	David Woodley	mia	4	179	4.6	76	625	5	5	6.6	152
33	1993	Brett Favre	gnb	2	522	5	71	535	5	3	7	146
34	2008	Ben Roethlisberger	pit	3	469	6.3	89	692	3	1	7.9	144
35	1997	Randall Cunningham	min	2	88	5	76	534	4	2	6.9	143
36	1995	Troy Aikman	dal	3	432	7.7	80	717	4	1	9.4	139
37	1996	Brett Favre	gnb	3	543	7.5	71	617	5	1	9.5	137
38	2010	Mark Sanchez	nyj	3	507	6	89	616	5	1	7.5	136
39	2002	Kelly Holcomb	cle	1	106	7.3	43	429	3	1	10.3	132
40	1986	Pat Ryan	nyj	2	55	6.1	34	256	4	0	9.9	128
41	2007	Philip Rivers	sdg	3	460	6.3	86	767	4	4	7.8	125
42	1982	Paul McDonald	cle	1	149	4.9	37	281	1	0	8.1	119
43	1991	Warren Moon	oti	2	655	6.4	76	596	5	2	8	118
44	2003	Peyton Manning	clt	3	566	7.8	103	918	9	4	8.9	118
45	1994	Neil O'Donnell	pit	2	370	6.2	77	535	3	0	7.7	117
46	2011	Joe Flacco	rav	2	542	6.4	63	482	4	1	8.2	114
47	1975	Roger Staubach	dal	3	348	6.6	79	670	7	4	8	111
48	2001	Vinny Testaverde	nyj	1	441	5.5	40	268	3	0	8.2	108
49	1982	Eric Hipple	det	1	86	3.2	38	298	1	2	6	108
50	1999	Jeff George	min	2	329	8.3	75	635	7	1	9.7	106

I assume Ravens fans hope that he’s the next Aikman and not the next Delhomme, but such is the danger of three-game sample sizes. Of course, Flacco has now excelled in consecutive postseasons. He gained 114 Adjusted Yards over expectation in 2011, giving him 460 AY over expectation the last two years in the playoff. That’s the second most by a quarterback in consecutive postseason appearances:

So yes, Flacco has been great this postseason, especially compared to his mediocre self. Of course, Jeff Hostetler and Mark Sanchez exhibited similar traits, too. It’s fair to give Flacco a pass for his first couple of seasons, but over the last three seasons, he ranks 14th among the 23 quarterbacks to throw 1,000 passes during that time. Winning the Super Bowl won’t change that fact, and I don’t think Flacco’s reputation will change significantly unless and until he improves in the regular season. Jim Plunkett was outstanding in the 1980 postseason after a mediocre regular season (and for that matter, career), culminating in a Super Bowl victory. But even with a second Super Bowl in ’83, Plunkett’s career is more remembered as a talented quarterback who played well in big moments but was far from a great player. That’s not such a bad reputation. The other obvious comparison is Eli Manning, who seemed to use his first Super Bowl victory as a spring board into a better career. More on him later this week or next, too. Apollo Creed once said to Rocky Balboa, “You fight great, but I’m a great fighter.” Flacco has played like an elite quarterback during these playoffs, but that doesn’t make him one until he does it again and again.