Is Wes Welker the Most PPR Receiver Ever?

by Chase Stuart on August 1, 2013

in Fantasy, History, Random Perspective On, Receiving

If you don’t play fantasy football, you probably have no idea what this title means. Of course, it’s 2013, so if you don’t play fantasy football, you’re now the oddball. “PPR” stands for points per reception. About half of all fantasy leagues do not give any points for receptions, while the other half includes some sort of PPR format. And while the value of every player is dependent on each league’s scoring system, few players see their value fluctuate between scoring systems quite like Wes Welker. Or, at least, that’s how it seems. Is there a way to measure this effect?

First, a review of Welker’s numbers since he joined the Patriots:

							Games		Receiving
Rk	Player	Year	Age	Draft	Tm	Lg	G	GS	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Y/G
1	Wes Welker	2012	31		NWE	NFL	16	12	118	1354	11.47	6	84.6
2	Wes Welker	2011	30		NWE	NFL	16	15	122	1569	12.86	9	98.1
3	Wes Welker	2010	29		NWE	NFL	15	11	86	848	9.86	7	56.5
4	Wes Welker	2009	28		NWE	NFL	14	13	123	1348	10.96	4	96.3
5	Wes Welker	2008	27		NWE	NFL	16	14	111	1165	10.50	3	72.8
6	Wes Welker	2007	26		NWE	NFL	16	13	112	1175	10.49	8	73.4

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com

Welker doesn’t get many touchdowns, and while he has respectable yardage totals, he is only exceptional when it comes to piling up receptions. Welker has 672 receptions over the last six seasons, easily the most in the NFL (in fact, it’s the most ever over any six-year stretch). Brandon Marshall (592) and Reggie Wayne (578) are the only two players even within 100 catches of Welker. Over that same time frame, he ranks 4th in receiving yards, but only tied for 17th in receiving touchdowns.

Giselle approves of Welker's form.

So how can we measure how much more valuable Welker is in PPR-leagues than non-PPR leagues? One way is to use VBD, which is a measure of how much value a player provided over the worst starter (or some other baseline). For example, Welker scored 173 fantasy points and ranked as WR12 in non-PPR leagues last season. If you are in a start-three wide receiver league, the worst starter would be WR36, who scored 111 fantasy points. That means Welker provided 62 points of VBD.

But in a PPR scoring system, Welker ranked 7th with 291 fantasy points. And since WR36 in a PPR system (Malcom Floyd) scored only 167 fantasy points, that gives Welker 124 points of VBD. By this measure, he was twice as valuable to fantasy players in PPR leagues than he was in non-PPR leagues.

As it turns out, Welker has been twice as valuable in PPR leagues over the course of his career. Since he entered the league in 2004, Welker has produced 683 points of VBD in PPR leagues and just 339 VBD points in non-PPR leagues. That means Welker has been only 49.6% as valuable in non-PPR leagues as he is in PPR formats. The table below lists the top 100 wide receivers (in terms of VBD in PPR leagues) since 1970 ^[1]Wide receivers who entered the league prior to 1970 are included, but only their post-merger seasons are included for this study.: Welker is the only player to be half as valuable in non-PPR leagues:

Rk	Wide Receiver	First	Last	Reg VBD	PPR VBD	Diff	Ratio
1	Wes Welker	2004	2012	338.7	682.9	344.2	49.6%
2	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	2001	2011	218	419.2	201.2	52%
3	Al Toon	1985	1992	184.8	346.6	161.8	53.3%
4	J.T. Smith	1978	1990	201	370.4	169.5	54.3%
5	Art Monk	1980	1995	415.1	738.5	323.4	56.2%
6	Keenan McCardell	1992	2007	289.9	511.6	221.7	56.7%
7	Laveranues Coles	2000	2009	219.9	381.9	162	57.6%
8	Pat Tilley	1976	1986	224.4	387	162.6	58%
9	Keyshawn Johnson	1996	2006	307	528.6	221.6	58.1%
10	Haywood Jeffires	1987	1996	224.4	384.5	160.1	58.4%
11	Brandon Marshall	2006	2012	373.4	637.6	264.2	58.6%
12	Dwight Clark	1979	1987	353.8	588.7	235	60.1%
13	Hines Ward	1998	2011	422.2	698.5	276.3	60.4%
14	Ahmad Rashad	1972	1982	330.5	545.2	214.7	60.6%
15	Derrick Mason	1997	2011	394.6	648	253.4	60.9%
16	Anquan Boldin	2003	2012	372.2	601	228.8	61.9%
17	Eric Moulds	1996	2007	299.2	474.2	175	63.1%
18	Rod Smith	1995	2006	477.4	756.1	278.7	63.1%
19	Andre Johnson	2003	2012	493.5	780.7	287.2	63.2%
20	Reggie Wayne	2001	2012	605.8	956.1	350.3	63.4%
21	Muhsin Muhammad	1996	2009	302.2	473.7	171.5	63.8%
22	Terance Mathis	1990	2002	274.6	425	150.4	64.6%
23	Jimmy Smith	1992	2005	532.3	819.4	287.1	65%
24	Reggie Rucker	1970	1981	316.6	485.2	168.7	65.2%
25	Roddy White	2005	2012	442.1	677.3	235.2	65.3%
26	Rob Moore	1990	1999	243.8	373.4	129.6	65.3%
27	Cris Collinsworth	1981	1988	341	515.8	174.8	66.1%
28	Cris Carter	1987	2002	776	1171.6	395.6	66.2%
29	Tim Brown	1988	2004	649.1	979.8	330.7	66.2%
30	Bob Chandler	1971	1982	304.3	458.1	153.8	66.4%
31	Donald Driver	1999	2012	335.9	505.5	169.6	66.4%
32	Herman Moore	1991	2002	474.4	707.3	232.9	67.1%
33	Charley Taylor	1970	1977	301.4	448.1	146.7	67.3%
34	Charlie Joiner	1970	1986	526.3	778.4	252.1	67.6%
35	Andre Reed	1985	2000	484.2	715.2	231.1	67.7%
36	Carl Pickens	1992	2000	305.5	450.5	145	67.8%
37	Larry Fitzgerald	2004	2012	569.9	838.9	269	67.9%
38	Torry Holt	1999	2009	675.6	992.7	317.1	68.1%
39	Michael Irvin	1988	1999	535	784.1	249.1	68.2%
40	Ernest Givins	1986	1995	285.8	418.2	132.4	68.3%
41	Drew Pearson	1973	1983	383	559.9	176.9	68.4%
42	Steve Smith	2001	2012	503.3	731.6	228.3	68.8%
43	Eric Martin	1985	1994	270.9	393.8	122.8	68.8%
44	Fred Biletnikoff	1970	1978	416.5	604.9	188.5	68.8%
45	Drew Hill	1979	1993	386.5	560.6	174.1	69%
46	Sterling Sharpe	1988	1994	549.8	795.3	245.5	69.1%
47	Marvin Harrison	1996	2008	947.6	1369	421.4	69.2%
48	Santana Moss	2001	2012	283.3	408.3	125	69.4%
49	Marques Colston	2006	2012	355.7	511.8	156.1	69.5%
50	Tony Hill	1977	1986	375.2	538	162.8	69.7%
51	Chad Johnson	2001	2011	530.9	756.3	225.4	70.2%
52	Wes Chandler	1978	1988	519.6	730.8	211.2	71.1%
53	Amani Toomer	1996	2008	244.6	343.3	98.7	71.2%
54	Isaac Bruce	1994	2009	639.8	894.3	254.5	71.5%
55	Joe Horn	1996	2007	386.7	540.4	153.7	71.6%
56	Tony Martin	1990	2001	268.2	374.6	106.4	71.6%
57	Steve Largent	1976	1989	889.2	1241.8	352.7	71.6%
58	Gary Clark	1985	1995	506.2	706.6	200.4	71.6%
59	Steve Watson	1979	1987	308.3	430	121.7	71.7%
60	Andre Rison	1989	2000	487.7	679.6	191.9	71.8%
61	Harold Carmichael	1972	1984	643.5	895.1	251.6	71.9%
62	Otis Taylor	1970	1975	229.5	316.6	87.1	72.5%
63	Irving Fryar	1984	2000	373.4	514.1	140.7	72.6%
64	Nat Moore	1974	1986	321.1	441.6	120.5	72.7%
65	Jerry Rice	1985	2004	1640.3	2253.3	612.9	72.8%
66	Jake Reed	1991	2002	227.6	311.4	83.8	73.1%
67	Carlos Carson	1980	1989	244	333.3	89.3	73.2%
68	Ken Burrough	1970	1981	391	532.2	141.2	73.5%
69	Henry Ellard	1983	1998	447.9	607.9	160	73.7%
70	Calvin Johnson	2007	2012	482.8	651.9	169.1	74.1%
71	John Stallworth	1974	1987	500.7	674.1	173.4	74.3%
72	Sammy White	1976	1985	389.8	521	131.2	74.8%
73	John Jefferson	1978	1985	360.6	481.9	121.3	74.8%
74	James Lofton	1978	1993	690.7	918.8	228	75.2%
75	Alfred Jenkins	1975	1983	365.5	485.6	120.2	75.3%
76	Charlie Brown	1982	1987	242.7	320.5	77.8	75.7%
77	Lynn Swann	1974	1982	320.7	422	101.4	76%
78	Roy Green	1979	1992	401.8	528.1	126.3	76.1%
79	Mark Clayton	1983	1993	557.1	724.7	167.6	76.9%
80	Darrell Jackson	2000	2008	245.6	317.1	71.5	77.5%
81	Harold Jackson	1970	1983	598.7	772.8	174.1	77.5%
82	Anthony Miller	1988	1997	385.2	490.9	105.7	78.5%
83	Cliff Branch	1972	1985	589.3	750.6	161.4	78.5%
84	Terrell Owens	1996	2010	995.7	1265.6	269.9	78.7%
85	Plaxico Burress	2000	2012	302.6	382.6	80	79.1%
86	Antonio Freeman	1995	2003	337.2	424.6	87.4	79.4%
87	Mike Quick	1982	1990	427.6	537.1	109.5	79.6%
88	John Gilliam	1970	1977	421	528.5	107.4	79.7%
89	Randy Moss	1998	2012	1116	1396.7	280.7	79.9%
90	Anthony Carter	1985	1995	279.3	348.6	69.3	80.1%
91	Gene A. Washington	1970	1979	541.8	669.7	127.9	80.9%
92	Greg Jennings	2006	2012	312.2	385.7	73.5	80.9%
93	Gary Garrison	1970	1977	328.9	405	76.1	81.2%
94	Isaac Curtis	1973	1984	366.2	447.5	81.3	81.8%
95	Joey Galloway	1995	2010	391.7	474.1	82.4	82.6%
96	Mark Duper	1982	1992	389.1	469.9	80.8	82.8%
97	Stanley Morgan	1977	1990	458.4	549.3	90.9	83.5%
98	Mel Gray	1971	1982	370.1	443.1	73	83.5%
99	Wesley Walker	1977	1989	439.3	521	81.7	84.3%
100	Paul Warfield	1970	1977	324.8	362.9	38.1	89.5%

I’ve written a lot about Paul Warfield, so I don’t think anyone will be surprised to see him as the Least PPR Receiver since 1970. You could probably write two or three posts just about the 98 names in between Welker and Warfield, but I’ll leave that to you guys in the comments.

How low do we need to change the threshold (of top 100 in PPR VBD) to find a more PPR-y receiver than Welker? If we lower the threshold to 150 points of PPR VBD, number one on that list is the man who used to occupy Welker’s role in the Patriots offense. Troy Brown stays #1 even if we lower the threshold to 50 points of PPR VBD.

Wide Receiver	First	Last	Reg VBD	PPR VBD	Diff	Ratio
Troy Brown	1993	2007	66.5	173.9	107.4	38.2%
Frank Sanders	1995	2003	54.8	135.5	80.7	40.4%
Ken Payne	1974	1978	32.6	78.6	46.1	41.4%
Bobby Engram	1996	2009	68.2	157.7	89.5	43.2%
Percy Harvin	2009	2012	47.7	106.6	58.9	44.7%
Billy Johnson	1974	1988	58.4	128.1	69.7	45.6%
Mike Furrey	2003	2009	42.1	91.9	49.8	45.8%
Reggie Langhorne	1985	1993	54.1	117.7	63.6	46%
Jerricho Cotchery	2004	2012	68.8	149.6	80.8	46%
Eddie Royal	2008	2012	30.4	65.9	35.5	46.1%
Mike Pritchard	1991	1999	48.7	100.6	51.9	48.4%
Matt Bouza	1981	1989	29.1	59.5	30.4	49%
Don Herrmann	1970	1977	29.4	59.4	30.1	49.4%

One name not on the list: Danny Amendola, who may or may not be a suitable replacement for Welker in 2013. In standard leagues, Amendola has never ranked in the top 45, so he has 0 points of VBD in non-PPR leagues. His only season above the baseline in PPR leagues came in 2010, when he finished as the 30th best fantasy wide receiver (with 85 catches and 689 yards).

Previous “Random Perspective On” Articles:
AFC East: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
AFC West: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins
NFC North: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams

References[+]

References
↑1	Wide receivers who entered the league prior to 1970 are included, but only their post-merger seasons are included for this study.

Tagged as: Broncos, Footballguys.com, RPO 2013, VBD, Wes Welker

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