The normal way to measure a franchise’s winning percentage is the simplest. All you need to do is take the team’s total number of wins, add to that number the total number of ties divided by two, and then take that sum and divide it by the team’s total number of games.
That’s simplest and makes sense and is perfectly correct. However, it also means games in 1960 are given the same weight as games in 2016. And depending on what you want to measure, that may not be what you want to do. If you want to measure something like the amount of pleasure a fanbase receives from its team [1]Why would you want to do this? I have no idea., you want to put more weight on recent seasons.
The Patriots have been around for 57 seasons. On average, New England’s winning percentage each year for those 57 seasons has been 0.549. [2]Note that this is calculated by averaging the Patriots winning percentage each year. So New England’s winning percentage in 2016 is given the same weight as the team’s winning percentage … Continue reading However, if we want to measure fan utility, we should give more weight to recent years.
So I took the Patriots 2016 winning percentage and multiplied that by 57, New England’s 2015 winning percentage and multiplied it by 56, its 2014 winning percentage and multiplied it by 55, and so on, and dividing the total by (57*56*55…..*1). Doing this results in New England’s 2016 season being worth 57 times as much as the team’s 1960 season. This methodology results in the Patriots having a weighted winning percentage of .609, which is about 6% better than the overall mark.
You can do this for every team in the NFL, although the multiplier obviously changes. For the Texans, the team’s 2016 winning percentage gets multiplied by 15, making it 15 times more valuable in determining Houston’s weighted winning percentage than its inaugural 2002 season. For the Cardinals, who have been around for 97 years, the math is obviously a little different. The table below shows the weighted and unweighted averages for each of the 32 teams. Let’s look at the Broncos line. Denver ranks 2nd in weighted winning percentage, at 0.588. The Broncos have been around for 57 seasons, and have an unweighted (i.e., the average of Denver’s winning percentage in each year) of 0.533. That unweighted average ranks 12th, which means the Broncos have been better in recent years than overall. The difference between the Broncos unweighted average is -0.055, meaning the team’s unweighted average is about 5.5% lower than the team’s weighted average.
| Wtd Rk | Team | Wtd Win% | Yrs | Avg Win% | Avg Rk | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 0.609 | 57 | 0.549 | 5 | -0.059 |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 0.588 | 57 | 0.533 | 12 | -0.055 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.570 | 84 | 0.511 | 15 | -0.059 |
| 4 | Dallas Cowboys | 0.566 | 57 | 0.573 | 2 | 0.007 |
| 5 | Baltimore Ravens | 0.561 | 21 | 0.540 | 9 | -0.021 |
| 6 | Green Bay Packers | 0.558 | 96 | 0.569 | 3 | 0.011 |
| 7 | Indianapolis Colts | 0.540 | 64 | 0.531 | 13 | -0.009 |
| 8 | San Francisco 49ers | 0.539 | 71 | 0.544 | 7 | 0.005 |
| 9 | Miami Dolphins | 0.538 | 51 | 0.565 | 4 | 0.027 |
| 10 | Minnesota Vikings | 0.538 | 56 | 0.543 | 8 | 0.005 |
| 11 | Seattle Seahawks | 0.535 | 41 | 0.503 | 17 | -0.032 |
| 12 | New York Giants | 0.521 | 92 | 0.547 | 6 | 0.027 |
| 13 | Chicago Bears | 0.521 | 97 | 0.574 | 1 | 0.054 |
| 14 | Kansas City Chiefs | 0.511 | 57 | 0.522 | 14 | 0.011 |
| 15 | Carolina Panthers | 0.510 | 22 | 0.490 | 20 | -0.020 |
| 16 | Philadelphia Eagles | 0.508 | 84 | 0.477 | 21 | -0.031 |
| 17 | Washington Redskins | 0.497 | 85 | 0.510 | 16 | 0.013 |
| 18 | Houston Texans | 0.488 | 15 | 0.442 | 27 | -0.046 |
| 19 | Oakland Raiders | 0.488 | 57 | 0.539 | 10 | 0.051 |
| 20 | New Orleans Saints | 0.488 | 50 | 0.438 | 29 | -0.050 |
| 21 | San Diego Chargers | 0.486 | 57 | 0.499 | 18 | 0.013 |
| 22 | Tennessee Titans | 0.479 | 57 | 0.475 | 22 | -0.004 |
| 23 | Atlanta Falcons | 0.475 | 51 | 0.437 | 30 | -0.038 |
| 24 | Los Angeles Rams | 0.474 | 79 | 0.498 | 19 | 0.024 |
| 25 | Buffalo Bills | 0.464 | 57 | 0.464 | 24 | 0.000 |
| 26 | Cincinnati Bengals | 0.463 | 49 | 0.462 | 25 | 0.000 |
| 27 | New York Jets | 0.460 | 57 | 0.457 | 26 | -0.003 |
| 28 | Cleveland Browns | 0.434 | 68 | 0.534 | 11 | 0.100 |
| 29 | Detroit Lions | 0.432 | 87 | 0.467 | 23 | 0.034 |
| 30 | Arizona Cardinals | 0.426 | 97 | 0.424 | 31 | -0.003 |
| 31 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.417 | 41 | 0.389 | 32 | -0.028 |
| 32 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.380 | 22 | 0.440 | 28 | 0.060 |
The Patriots rank 1st in weighted average, and 5th in unweighted average. You won’t be surprised to see that New England, Pittsburgh, Denver, and New Orleans are the four teams that have the biggest delta between weighted and unweighted averages. And the least surprising result: Cleveland being by far the biggest outlier in the other direction.
What stands out to you?
References
| ↑1 | Why would you want to do this? I have no idea. |
|---|---|
| ↑2 | Note that this is calculated by averaging the Patriots winning percentage each year. So New England’s winning percentage in 2016 is given the same weight as the team’s winning percentage in 1982. That, I think, is appropriate: after all, each season has one champion. However, because there is a 16-game schedule now, and the schedule length used to be shorter, you get a different number (and because it’s the Patriots, a higher number) if you simply calculate New England’s franchise winning percentage. The Patriots have a 476-383-9 franchise mark, which translates to a 0.554 winning percentage. But for what I’m doing in today’s post, I thought it made more sense to average the team’s winning percentage in each year, rather than give less weight to non-16 game seasons. The difference, of course, is small. |