Jadeveon Clowney was one of the most highly-touted non-quarterback prospects in recent draft history. Clowney, in fact, has been a highly-touted prospect for even longer than that: he was the number one recruit in the country for the 2011 class. And, #DisruptionIsProduction aside, Clowney’s now fallen short of sky-high expectations for three years in a row: after an uneven final year in South Carolina, Clowney was limited to just four games as a rookie in 2014. Last year, Clowney started 9 games and played in 13; he recorded 4.5 sacks and had 27 tackles.

Is 2016 the year of the Clowney breakout? It may be: he was a strong run defender last year and has shown flashes of the dominance we saw in college. That said, I thought it would be interesting to compare Clowney to other number one draft picks through two years.  Clowney has played in 17 games through two years; that’s pretty low, as you expect, compared to other first overall picks.

Let’s look at the same chart but use AV: ^[1]Note that in both charts, I am beginning in 1967, which marks the start of the common draft, and excluding Bo Jackson, the first overall pick in 1986.

Of course, comparing Clowney to a list of mostly quarterbacks is a little clunky; instead, let’s look at all defensive ends and linebackers selected in the top 5 since 1967, and measure their AV through two years:

By any metric, Clowney has been disappointing through two seasons, not just by his own meteoric expectations, but by those of a top-five pass rusher. And, of course, given the success of the man selected four picks after him, Khalil Mack, any shortcomings by Clowney are only magnified.  Clowney doesn’t have to be the best player on his own defense or the best defender from his own draft, but the expectations are going to be high for him to deliver a Pro Bowl-caliber season in 2016.  Do you think he will?