Statistically, Jameis Winston had a strong 2017 season. Winston was above-average in completion percentage, yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, passer rating, and Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. Overall, Winston ranked 11th in ANY/A and 14th in passer rating, but that might undersell him. That’s because Winston was also the game’s preeminent downfield thrower in 2017. His average pass traveled 10.62 yards in the air, by far the longest in the NFL (Carson Wentz was second at 9.91, followed by Russell Wilson at 9.75, Carson Palmer at 9.36, and Tom Brady at 9.09). Winston also led the NFL in average air yards on completions, at 7.97 (Wentz was seond at 7.79, followed by Palmer at 7.53.)
Winston was throwing longer passes, which hurt his passer rating and completion percentage, but helped his team. Winston picked up a first down on over 40% of his pass attempts, the highest rate in the NFL last season:
And Winston was excellent on third downs, which is a pretty key component of producing an efficient offense. In fact, he ranked 2nd among starting quarterbacks:
So why were the Bucs so bad in 2017? Was it a case of Winston having very good stats but not playing well? I don’t think so. To start, Tampa Bay had the worst defense in the NFL according to DVOA. And the Bucs had very bad special teams, including a disastrous kicking game. Finally, while Tampa Bay ranked 9th in pass DVOA, the Bucs ranked 25th in rush DVOA. The Bucs ranked 30th in rushing yards by running backs (1168) and 29th in rushing yards per carry by running backs (3.53).
So you have a very good passing game combined with the worst defense in the NFL, terrible special teams, and an ineffective running game. In that light, a 3-10 record for Winston makes a lot more sense. NFL teams went 28-5 when their quarterback had a passer rating of at least 130, but Winston went 0-2 in those games.
Winston lost a third game in overtime where he never touched the ball, and two more games to AFC East teams with remarkable sequences of events. Against Buffalo, in a game that was 20-20 late in the fourth quarter, Winston drove the Bucs down the field and converted two third downs, including one for a touchdown, to take a 27-20 lead with 3:14 to go. The Bills responded by driving 75 yards in just three plays for a touchdown to tie the game. Winston took over with 2:28 to go, and his first pass was a completion to Adam Humphries who cut back into the middle of the field and fumbled. Buffalo kicked the game-winning field goal a few plays later.
Against the Patriots, the Bucs passing attack was the best unit on the field. If you look at the EPA from that game, Tampa Bay’s pass offense was +9.96, its rushing offense -1.95, while the Patriots passing offense was +1.94 and its rushing offense -2.32. But Nick Folk missed three field goals, which proved to be the difference in the game.
Winston’s season was similar to Kyle Orton’s 2010 season, which may not sound like a complement. Orton went 3-10 playing for a team that ranked 32nd in both points and yards allowed and had a mediocre running game. In fact, Winston and Orton are the only two quarterbacks since 2000 to (a) start 10+ games and throw 224+ passes, (b) have an ANY/A+ Index of at least 105 (solidly above average), and to lose at least 2.5 times as many games as they won.
If we look at just Yards per Attempt+, Winston had a Y/A+ Index of 118, more than one standard deviation above average. Since 1970, just three QBs have been one standard deviation above average in Y/A+ and also lost three times as many games as they won. All three were number one overall picks who played with horrible defenses.
Winston is 24 (he’ll be 25 in January), so there’s still time for him to improve. But the writing is on the wall for him to have a much better record in 2018. He was probably the most underrated quarterback of 2017.