The Jets and Colts pulled off a blockbuster trade yesterday. Indianapolis sent the Jets the third overall selection, which gives them the right to draft one of Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, or Baker Mayfield. It’s possible (likely?) that one of those guys would have still been there at #6, but the Jets didn’t want to take that risk, or (it appears) risk putting the future of the quarterback position in the hands of Lamar Jackson, Mason Rudolph or Luke Falk (or Teddy Bridgewater).

The price to play it safe and insure that the Jets would get one of their top three options at quarterback was not cheap.  In return for the third pick (worth 27.6 points in the Football Perspective Draft Pick Value calculator), New York gave up the sixth pick (worth 23.2 points), the 37th pick (11.6 points), the 49th pick (9.8 points), and a 2019 second round pick.  If we assume the 2019 second round pick to be say, the 40th pick overall, that’s another 11.1 points.  Discount it 10% for having to wait a year to lose it, and we can approximate it as worth 10 points.

That’s 27.6 points points received in return for trading 54.6 points, which is a whopping 198 cents on the dollar. It’s hard to overstate how much value that is: the Jets sent the equivalent of the first overall pick (34.6 points) and the 10th overall pick (19.9 points), and are now firmly in the land of massive overpays to trade up for a top-5 QB.

The Jets are now rebuilding without a 2nd round pick this year or a 2nd round pick next year and starting with a roster that is light on talent overall.  The only way this trade works out is if the draft pick turns out to be a star quarterback, but the odds of that happening are about 20%.  My suspicion is the odds of that are even lower when you have a below-average support system around that quarterback.

This is a curious trade given that the Jets will likely be left taking the third QB off the board.  The Jets could have stayed put and taken the best QB on the board at 6 (which would involve some risk, of course) and have three second round picks to surround that player.  Or trade down and take a QB like Jackson or Rudolph and surround him with three second round picks plus whatever else the Jets could have acquired via a trade down. It might be looking at a situation of the leftovers of Darnold/Rosen/Allen/Mayfield vs. Jackson + 4 2nd round picks or Rudolph plus 3 second round picks and 1 first round pick.

But there’s nothing easier in the world than overpaying to trade up for a QB that’s the safe choice.  The Jets paid 198 cents on the dollar to avoid having to take the risk in not getting one of the consensus top 4 quarterbacks. That is a very hefty insurance policy for a team that is light on talent to begin with.