The formula is simple: Begin with receiving yards; add 9 yards for each first down reception, and 11 additional yards if that first down went for a touchdown. Then, divide that number by the player’s team’s number of pass attempts (including sacks). You can read more about the methodology here.
One player worth highlighting is Dez Bryant. Chances are, you’ve heard lots about DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys offensive line; you’ve also probably read something about the efficient season Tony Romo is having, and the shockingly decent performance from the Dallas defense. But Bryant is having a remarkably efficient year, too. The Cowboys are the second most run-heavy team in the NFL; as a result, Bryant ranks 9th with 590 yards through seven games, but he’s been much more productive than that on a per-attempt basis.
Add in Bryant’s 27 first downs and four touchdown receptions, and the Dallas star has 877 Adjusted Catch Yards this year. More importantly, he’s produced on just 226 Cowboys dropbacks this year; as a result, Bryant ranks 4th with 3.88 Adjusted Catch Yards per Team Attempt. His Texas counterpart, Andre Johnson, shares a similar story. With 496 receiving yards, Johnson ranks just 12th overall. But he’s also recorded 27 first downs, and his 750 Adjusted Catch Yards have come on just 204 Texans dropbacks. [1]Oh, and they’ve come from Ryan Fitzpatrick. That means Johnson is averaging 3.68 ACY/TmAtt, the 5th best rate in the NFL.
Rk | Receiver | Tm | Age | G | Rec | Yds | TD | FD | TmAtt | ACY | ACY/TmAtt |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jordy Nelson | GNB | 29 | 7 | 47 | 712 | 6 | 35 | 235 | 1093 | 4.65 |
2 | Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 27 | 7 | 47 | 767 | 6 | 29 | 261 | 1094 | 4.19 |
3 | Antonio Brown | PIT | 26 | 7 | 50 | 719 | 5 | 34 | 275 | 1080 | 3.93 |
4 | Dez Bryant | DAL | 26 | 7 | 45 | 590 | 4 | 27 | 226 | 877 | 3.88 |
5 | Andre Johnson | HOU | 33 | 7 | 39 | 496 | 1 | 27 | 204 | 750 | 3.68 |
6 | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 27 | 7 | 47 | 634 | 4 | 30 | 261 | 948 | 3.63 |
7 | Steve Smith | BAL | 35 | 7 | 38 | 640 | 4 | 23 | 253 | 891 | 3.52 |
8 | Julio Jones | ATL | 25 | 7 | 49 | 676 | 3 | 32 | 297 | 997 | 3.36 |
9 | T.Y. Hilton | IND | 25 | 7 | 47 | 711 | 1 | 37 | 317 | 1055 | 3.33 |
10 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 22 | 7 | 31 | 474 | 3 | 19 | 204 | 678 | 3.32 |
11 | Golden Tate | DET | 26 | 7 | 48 | 649 | 2 | 27 | 276 | 914 | 3.31 |
12 | Randall Cobb | GNB | 24 | 7 | 35 | 452 | 8 | 26 | 235 | 774 | 3.29 |
13 | Mohamed Sanu | CIN | 25 | 6 | 30 | 408 | 3 | 19 | 204 | 612 | 3 |
14 | Greg Olsen | CAR | 29 | 7 | 41 | 493 | 5 | 30 | 278 | 818 | 2.94 |
15 | Andrew Hawkins | CLE | 28 | 6 | 29 | 382 | 0 | 21 | 200 | 571 | 2.86 |
16 | Delanie Walker | TEN | 30 | 7 | 31 | 438 | 3 | 19 | 233 | 642 | 2.76 |
17 | Jeremy Maclin | PHI | 26 | 6 | 27 | 445 | 4 | 20 | 244 | 669 | 2.74 |
18 | Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | 23 | 7 | 34 | 477 | 5 | 24 | 278 | 748 | 2.69 |
19 | Sammy Watkins | BUF | 21 | 7 | 35 | 433 | 4 | 28 | 275 | 729 | 2.65 |
20 | Anquan Boldin | SFO | 34 | 7 | 39 | 447 | 1 | 23 | 251 | 665 | 2.65 |
21 | DeSean Jackson | WAS | 28 | 7 | 26 | 528 | 3 | 17 | 270 | 714 | 2.64 |
22 | James Jones | OAK | 30 | 6 | 30 | 363 | 3 | 19 | 219 | 567 | 2.59 |
23 | Mike Wallace | MIA | 28 | 6 | 30 | 359 | 5 | 20 | 232 | 594 | 2.56 |
24 | Alshon Jeffery | CHI | 24 | 7 | 33 | 504 | 2 | 21 | 281 | 715 | 2.54 |
25 | Antonio Gates | SDG | 34 | 8 | 32 | 417 | 9 | 23 | 285 | 723 | 2.54 |
26 | Julian Edelman | NWE | 28 | 7 | 44 | 453 | 1 | 23 | 267 | 671 | 2.51 |
27 | Travis Kelce | KAN | 25 | 6 | 24 | 307 | 3 | 18 | 202 | 502 | 2.49 |
28 | Doug Baldwin | SEA | 26 | 6 | 23 | 310 | 1 | 16 | 190 | 465 | 2.45 |
29 | Rob Gronkowski | NWE | 25 | 7 | 31 | 409 | 4 | 22 | 267 | 651 | 2.44 |
30 | Terrance Williams | DAL | 25 | 7 | 19 | 338 | 6 | 16 | 226 | 548 | 2.42 |
31 | Brian Quick | STL | 25 | 6 | 24 | 365 | 3 | 19 | 235 | 569 | 2.42 |
32 | Julius Thomas | DEN | 26 | 7 | 30 | 327 | 9 | 22 | 261 | 624 | 2.39 |
33 | Vincent Jackson | TAM | 31 | 6 | 25 | 344 | 2 | 19 | 225 | 537 | 2.39 |
34 | Malcom Floyd | SDG | 33 | 8 | 24 | 470 | 3 | 18 | 285 | 665 | 2.33 |
35 | Martellus Bennett | CHI | 27 | 7 | 41 | 422 | 4 | 21 | 281 | 655 | 2.33 |
36 | Keenan Allen | SDG | 22 | 8 | 43 | 427 | 1 | 25 | 285 | 663 | 2.33 |
37 | Larry Donnell | NYG | 26 | 7 | 33 | 332 | 4 | 21 | 245 | 565 | 2.31 |
38 | Michael Floyd | ARI | 25 | 6 | 19 | 353 | 2 | 14 | 220 | 501 | 2.28 |
39 | Jimmy Graham | NOR | 28 | 6 | 34 | 376 | 3 | 22 | 269 | 607 | 2.26 |
40 | Matt Forte | CHI | 29 | 7 | 52 | 436 | 2 | 18 | 281 | 620 | 2.21 |
41 | Pierre Garcon | WAS | 28 | 7 | 35 | 396 | 3 | 18 | 270 | 591 | 2.19 |
42 | Reggie Wayne | IND | 36 | 7 | 38 | 434 | 1 | 26 | 317 | 679 | 2.14 |
43 | A.J. Green | CIN | 26 | 4 | 17 | 314 | 2 | 11 | 204 | 435 | 2.13 |
44 | Brandon Marshall | CHI | 30 | 7 | 31 | 349 | 5 | 21 | 281 | 593 | 2.11 |
45 | Andre Holmes | OAK | 26 | 6 | 18 | 303 | 3 | 14 | 219 | 462 | 2.11 |
46 | Rueben Randle | NYG | 23 | 7 | 34 | 321 | 2 | 19 | 245 | 514 | 2.1 |
47 | Dwayne Bowe | KAN | 30 | 5 | 19 | 279 | 0 | 16 | 202 | 423 | 2.09 |
48 | Michael Crabtree | SFO | 27 | 7 | 32 | 322 | 3 | 18 | 251 | 517 | 2.06 |
49 | Kendall Wright | TEN | 25 | 7 | 32 | 297 | 4 | 15 | 233 | 476 | 2.04 |
50 | Steve Johnson | SFO | 28 | 7 | 25 | 315 | 3 | 18 | 251 | 510 | 2.03 |
In addition to the Texas wide receivers, some other notable players stand out as being better than their raw receiving yardage numbers would indicate:
- The Packers rank 21st in pass attempts (including sacks). So while nobody is overlooking the season Nelson is having, consider that he’s one of four players with 700 receiving yards this year. The other three receivers play for the teams that rank 1st, 9th, and 14th in passes. As a result, both Nelson and his running mate are a bit underrated by conventional stats. Randall Cobb ranks 18th in receiving yards, but (thanks in part to eight touchdowns, too) jumps to 12th in ACY/TmAtt.
- Another #2 wide receiver who might be underrated is DeAndre Hopkins, who ranks 15th in receiving yards but 10th in ACY/TmAtt. A pair of Ohio receivers, Mohamed Sanu and Andrew Hawkins, break into the top 15 in ACY/TmAtt, despite ranking just 29th and 31st respectively in receiving yards. That’s because Cleveland and Cincinnati both rank in the bottom five in pass attempts to date.
- Sammy Watkins has been extremely efficient this year when it comes to converting yards into first downs. Some of that might be due to the lack of long receptions — he hasn’t recorded a catch of longer than 30 yards this year — but he’s picked up an incredible 28 first downs this year, 8th most in the NFL, despite ranking 24th in receiving yards.
What about the players who might be overrated by conventional stats?
- In addition to getting to play with Andrew Luck, the Colts skill position players have been the beneficiaries of about a zillion plays this year. Indianapolis not only has the most pass attempts in the NFL, but the Colts have the 2nd most rushes, too. As a result, T.Y. Hilton (4th in receiving yards) and Reggie Wayne (23rd) move down in this analysis to 9th and 42nd, respectively.
- Julio Jones is as talented as any wide receiver in the NFL, but his raw statistics benefit from playing with Matt Ryan and a pass-heavy Atlanta offense. While he ranks 5th in receiving yards and 3rd in receptions, he drops to 8th in ACY/TmAtt.
- The anti-Watkins would probably be DeSean Jackson. The Washington wideout ranks 10th in receiving yards, but he’s tied for 50th in first downs! Of course, Jackson is known as a big play threat, and he wasn’t signed to move the chains. Still, his lack of first downs combined with a pass-happy offense drops him down to 21st in ACY/TmAtt.
As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.
References
↑1 | Oh, and they’ve come from Ryan Fitzpatrick. |
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