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Nelson has (still) been the league's best receiver in 2014

Nelson has (still) been the league’s best receiver in 2014

On October 1st, I looked at the leaders in Adjusted Catch Yards per Team Attempt. Today, I re-ran the numbers, which are through week 7 but also include the Broncos/Chargers game from Thursday night.

The formula is simple: Begin with receiving yards; add 9 yards for each first down reception, and 11 additional yards if that first down went for a touchdown. Then, divide that number by the player’s team’s number of pass attempts (including sacks). You can read more about the methodology here.

One player worth highlighting is Dez Bryant. Chances are, you’ve heard lots about DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys offensive line; you’ve also probably read something about the efficient season Tony Romo is having, and the shockingly decent performance from the Dallas defense. But Bryant is having a remarkably efficient year, too. The Cowboys are the second most run-heavy team in the NFL; as a result, Bryant ranks 9th with 590 yards through seven games, but he’s been much more productive than that on a per-attempt basis.

Add in Bryant’s 27 first downs and four touchdown receptions, and the Dallas star has 877 Adjusted Catch Yards this year. More importantly, he’s produced on just 226 Cowboys dropbacks this year; as a result, Bryant ranks 4th with 3.88 Adjusted Catch Yards per Team Attempt. His Texas counterpart, Andre Johnson, shares a similar story. With 496 receiving yards, Johnson ranks just 12th overall. But he’s also recorded 27 first downs, and his 750 Adjusted Catch Yards have come on just 204 Texans dropbacks. [1]Oh, and they’ve come from Ryan Fitzpatrick. That means Johnson is averaging 3.68 ACY/TmAtt, the 5th best rate in the NFL.

RkReceiverTmAgeGRecYdsTDFDTmAttACYACY/TmAtt
1Jordy NelsonGNB2974771263523510934.65
2Demaryius ThomasDEN2774776762926110944.19
3Antonio BrownPIT2675071953427510803.93
4Dez BryantDAL267455904272268773.88
5Andre JohnsonHOU337394961272047503.68
6Emmanuel SandersDEN277476344302619483.63
7Steve SmithBAL357386404232538913.52
8Julio JonesATL257496763322979973.36
9T.Y. HiltonIND2574771113731710553.33
10DeAndre HopkinsHOU227314743192046783.32
11Golden TateDET267486492272769143.31
12Randall CobbGNB247354528262357743.29
13Mohamed SanuCIN256304083192046123
14Greg OlsenCAR297414935302788182.94
15Andrew HawkinsCLE286293820212005712.86
16Delanie WalkerTEN307314383192336422.76
17Jeremy MaclinPHI266274454202446692.74
18Kelvin BenjaminCAR237344775242787482.69
19Sammy WatkinsBUF217354334282757292.65
20Anquan BoldinSFO347394471232516652.65
21DeSean JacksonWAS287265283172707142.64
22James JonesOAK306303633192195672.59
23Mike WallaceMIA286303595202325942.56
24Alshon JefferyCHI247335042212817152.54
25Antonio GatesSDG348324179232857232.54
26Julian EdelmanNWE287444531232676712.51
27Travis KelceKAN256243073182025022.49
28Doug BaldwinSEA266233101161904652.45
29Rob GronkowskiNWE257314094222676512.44
30Terrance WilliamsDAL257193386162265482.42
31Brian QuickSTL256243653192355692.42
32Julius ThomasDEN267303279222616242.39
33Vincent JacksonTAM316253442192255372.39
34Malcom FloydSDG338244703182856652.33
35Martellus BennettCHI277414224212816552.33
36Keenan AllenSDG228434271252856632.33
37Larry DonnellNYG267333324212455652.31
38Michael FloydARI256193532142205012.28
39Jimmy GrahamNOR286343763222696072.26
40Matt ForteCHI297524362182816202.21
41Pierre GarconWAS287353963182705912.19
42Reggie WayneIND367384341263176792.14
43A.J. GreenCIN264173142112044352.13
44Brandon MarshallCHI307313495212815932.11
45Andre HolmesOAK266183033142194622.11
46Rueben RandleNYG237343212192455142.1
47Dwayne BoweKAN305192790162024232.09
48Michael CrabtreeSFO277323223182515172.06
49Kendall WrightTEN257322974152334762.04
50Steve JohnsonSFO287253153182515102.03

In addition to the Texas wide receivers, some other notable players stand out as being better than their raw receiving yardage numbers would indicate:

  • The Packers rank 21st in pass attempts (including sacks). So while nobody is overlooking the season Nelson is having, consider that he’s one of four players with 700 receiving yards this year. The other three receivers play for the teams that rank 1st, 9th, and 14th in passes. As a result, both Nelson and his running mate are a bit underrated by conventional stats. Randall Cobb ranks 18th in receiving yards, but (thanks in part to eight touchdowns, too) jumps to 12th in ACY/TmAtt.
  • Another #2 wide receiver who might be underrated is DeAndre Hopkins, who ranks 15th in receiving yards but 10th in ACY/TmAtt. A pair of Ohio receivers, Mohamed Sanu and Andrew Hawkins, break into the top 15 in ACY/TmAtt, despite ranking just 29th and 31st respectively in receiving yards. That’s because Cleveland and Cincinnati both rank in the bottom five in pass attempts to date.
  • Sammy Watkins has been extremely efficient this year when it comes to converting yards into first downs. Some of that might be due to the lack of long receptions — he hasn’t recorded a catch of longer than 30 yards this year — but he’s picked up an incredible 28 first downs this year, 8th most in the NFL, despite ranking 24th in receiving yards.

What about the players who might be overrated by conventional stats?

  • In addition to getting to play with Andrew Luck, the Colts skill position players have been the beneficiaries of about a zillion plays this year. Indianapolis not only has the most pass attempts in the NFL, but the Colts have the 2nd most rushes, too. As a result, T.Y. Hilton (4th in receiving yards) and Reggie Wayne (23rd) move down in this analysis to 9th and 42nd, respectively.
  • Julio Jones is as talented as any wide receiver in the NFL, but his raw statistics benefit from playing with Matt Ryan and a pass-heavy Atlanta offense. While he ranks 5th in receiving yards and 3rd in receptions, he drops to 8th in ACY/TmAtt.
  • The anti-Watkins would probably be DeSean Jackson. The Washington wideout ranks 10th in receiving yards, but he’s tied for 50th in first downs! Of course, Jackson is known as a big play threat, and he wasn’t signed to move the chains. Still, his lack of first downs combined with a pass-happy offense drops him down to 21st in ACY/TmAtt.

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.

References

References
1 Oh, and they’ve come from Ryan Fitzpatrick.
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