A massively disappointing quarterback and Josh McCown
Josh McCown had a passer rating of 109.0 last year, the third best in the NFL in 2013. With one game left in the 2014 season, McCown has a passer rating of 70.5, and he is in a tight three-way race with Geno Smith and Blake Bortles to see who finishes the season with the worst passer rating. Update: McCown had a passer rating of 70.0 in week 17, and finished the year with a 70.5 passer rating. A decline of 38.5 points in a quarterback’s passer rating is enormous, but not unprecedented. In fact, eight other players (minimum 200 pass attempts both years) have seen larger declines:
#8) Daunte Culpepper (2004-2005)
In 2004, Culpepper set an NFL record with 5,123 yards of total offense. I wrote about Culpepper’s great ’04 season and his subsequent decline at the PFR blog back in 2007, and I maintain that Culpepper was a very underrated quarterback during his time in Minnesota. In 2004, he finished with a passer rating of 110.9; the next year, his final with the Vikings, he threw 6 touchdowns against 12 interceptions in seven games, before an ACL year ended his season. He finished with a 72.0 passer rating, representing a 38.9 point drop from his lofty ’04 standard.
#7) Babe Parilli (1962-1963)
In 1962, Parilli had a passer rating of 91.5, which was incredible for that era. The Patriots passer was above-average in most metrics, but he really stood apart with a great interception rate. Fifty-two years ago, a 3.2% interception rate was outstanding, and that, combined with a strong completion percentage and high touchdown rate, was enough to give Parilli that sparkling passer rating.
But the next year, Parilli’s 18/8 TD/INT ratio flipped dramatically to 13/24; his completion percentage also dropped ten points, which was enough to drop his passer rating all the way to 52.1.
#6) George Blanda (1961-1962)
The Oilers were the dominant team of the early AFL days. George Blanda was a driving force, and he was a high risk/high reward passer in 1960 and 1962. But in 1961, he was out-of-this world good. He led the AFL in passing yards, passing touchdowns, passing touchdown rate (9.9%!!), yards per attempt (9.2!), and yards per completion (17.8!). He finished with a passer rating of 91.3, with the only blemish being an interception rate of 6.1% (which was actually slightly about league average).
But his good fortune was gone the next year. Blanda’s interception rate spiked to 10.0%, while he experienced regression to the mean in all other categories. His 42 interceptions that season remain a record, and he experienced a 40-point drop in passer rating down to 51.3.
#5) Tommy Thompson (1949-1950)
Thompson, of course, is the last quarterback to lead the Eagles to an NFL championship. In 1948, he led the NFL with 25 passing touchdowns, a 10.2% touchdown rate (which was at the time, and still is, the 2nd highest in NFL history), and a 98.4 passer rating as the Eagles went 9-2-1 and won the NFL title.
The next year, Thompson saw his touchdown rate drop, but still produced strong numbers across the board, and led the NFL with an 84.4 rating as the Eagles repeated as champs.
Then came 1950, and everything fell apart (in part due to injuries to the rest of the offense). His touchdown rate dropped from 7.5% to 4.6%, while his interception rate spiked from 5.1% to 9.2%. After a 25/11 TD/INT ratio in ’48 and a 16/11 ratio in ’49, that reversed to 11/22 in 1950. His completion percentage fell dramatically, too, and Thompson produced a miserable 44.4 passer rating, a full 40 points off his ’49 pace. He retired after the season.
#4) Bart Starr (1966-1967)
The Packers star quarterback led the NFL in passer rating in ’62 and ’64, but it was ’66 when he produced his finest season. That year Green Bay won the first Super Bowl and Starr won his sole MVP award. I argued that it was one of the five greatest seasons by a quarterback who won the Super Bowl. He averaged 9.0 yards per attempt, had a 1.2% interception rate, completed 62.2% of his passes, and finished with a 105.0 passer rating, all marks that led the league.
But while Starr would win another Super Bowl and again lead the NFL in yards per attempt in 1967, his touchdown/interception ratio flipped from 14/3 to 9/17. His completion percentage dropped to 54.8, and his passer rating fell 40.6 points to 64.4.
#3) Rudy Bukich (1965-1966)
You probably have never heard of Bukich, who quarterbacked the Bears in the mid-’60s. He was a pretty good player who led the Trojans to a Rose Bowl victory in 1953 and enjoyed modest success in the NFL. In limited action, he played well in ’63 and ’64, before becoming the full-time starter in 1965. That year, he led the NFL in interception rate and averaged 8.5 yards per attempt. On a team with Johnny Morris, Mike Ditka, and rookies Gale Sayers and Dick Butkus, Bukich guided the team to a 9-3 record with a 93.7 passer rating.
As you can probably imagine, a change in the TD/INT winds caused his passer rating to go off course in ’66. Bukich went from a 20/9 ratio in ’65 to a 10/21 output the following year, and his completion percentage fell to a pathetic 6.0. His passer rating dropped to 49.3, a drop of over 44 points.
#2) Joe Kapp (1969-1970)
One of the NFL’s great mysteries is Kapp’s 1969 season. A former CFL starr, Kapp was never a traditional NFL passer. For his career, he completed just 48.9% of his passes, and he was always more gritty than efficient. But the juxtaposition of his ’69 and ’70 seasons are hard to comperehend, even when you factor in a switch in teams. In ’69, he led the NFL in touchdown rate, although he was still just average in other metrics, leading to a 78.5 passer rating. A historically great defense was enough to give Kapp a 12-1 record and a trip to the Super Bowl, but Kapp became a free agent after the season. He signed for big money with the Patriots, where he completed 44.7% of his passes and had an unfathomable 3/17 TD/INT ratio. His passer rating dropped from 78.5 to 32.6 — a decline of nearly 46 points! — while the decline in his record (1-9) was perhaps even more severe.
#1) Y.A. Tittle (1963-1964)
Tittle was a Hall of Fame quarterback who peaked with the Giants at the end of his career. He set an NFL record for touchdown passes with 33 in 1962, then had a career year at the age of 37 in 1963: he led the NFL with a 60.2% completion rate, 36 touchdowns, 9.8% touchdown rate, 8.6 yards per attempt, and a 104.8 passer rating. Unfortunately for Tittle, the Giants lost in the NFL title game for the thrid straight year.
At 38, Tittle was done: after going 11-2 in ’63, he finished just 1-8-2 in ’64. His TD/INT ratio switched from 36/14 to 10/22, his yards per attempt dropped from 8.6 to 6.4, and his completion rate dropped to 52.3. His passer rating fell to 51.6, and that 53.2 point drop remains the largest single-season decline in NFL history.
And that brings us to McCown. He led the NFL with an insane 0.4% interception rate, which was the product of a small sample size and a lot of good fortune (McCown played in eight games, but started just five). He had a 13/1 TD/INT ratio and completed 66.5% of his passes for the Bears. This year? McCown’s completion rate has dropped to 55.%, his TD/INT ratio is now 10/13, and his yards per attempt average has fallen from 8.2 to 6.9. At age 35, it wouldn’t be surprising to see tomorrow McCown’s last NFL start.