In 2013, NFL players combined for 129,177 receiving yards and 804 receiving touchdowns. That means, on average, a touchdown was scored every 160.7 receiving yards. Denver tight end Julius Thomas gained 788 receiving yards that year, which means we might have “expected” him to catch 4.9 touchdowns. But Thomas was no average scorer: he finished with 12 touchdowns, or 7.1 more than expected.
In 2013, only Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis scored more receiving touchdowns relative to expectation than Thomas (Davis scored 13 times on just 850 receiving yards, or 7.7 more than expected, while Graham converted 1,215 receiving yards into 16 touchdowns, or 8.4 more than expected).
Well, as good as Thomas was in 2013, he was even crazier at scoring touchdowns last year. Despite gaining just 489 receiving yards, Thomas again scored 12 touchdowns, 8.9 more than expectation (the league average was 159.7 receiving yards per receiving touchdown). That was the most in the NFL, and only Dez Bryant (1,320/16/+7.7) was within shouting distance of him.
In fact, Thomas was so prolific in 2014 at converting receiving yards into touchdowns — relative to league average — that he ranks 11th all-time in this metric. Take a look at the top 50:
Rk | Player | Year | Tm | Lg | Pos | Rec Yd | Exp | Rec TD | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jerry Rice | 1987 | SFO | NFL | WR | 1078 | 7 | 22 | 15 |
2 | Randy Moss | 2007 | NWE | NFL | WR | 1493 | 9.2 | 23 | 13.8 |
3 | Sterling Sharpe | 1994 | GNB | NFL | WR | 1119 | 6.4 | 18 | 11.6 |
4 | Carl Pickens | 1995 | CIN | NFL | WR | 1234 | 7.2 | 17 | 9.8 |
5 | Mark Clayton | 1984 | MIA | NFL | WR | 1389 | 8.4 | 18 | 9.6 |
6 | James Jones | 2012 | GNB | NFL | WR | 784 | 4.7 | 14 | 9.3 |
7 | Rob Gronkowski | 2011 | NWE | NFL | TE | 1327 | 7.9 | 17 | 9.1 |
8 | Daryl Turner | 1985 | SEA | NFL | WR | 670 | 3.9 | 13 | 9.1 |
9 | Alyn Beals | 1948 | SFO | AAFC | RE | 591 | 5 | 14 | 9 |
10 | Cris Carter | 1995 | MIN | NFL | WR | 1371 | 8 | 17 | 9 |
11 | Julius Thomas | 2014 | DEN | NFL | TE | 489 | 3.1 | 12 | 8.9 |
12 | Randy Moss | 1998 | MIN | NFL | WR | 1313 | 8.1 | 17 | 8.9 |
13 | Jerry Rice | 1989 | SFO | NFL | WR | 1483 | 8.4 | 17 | 8.6 |
14 | Jimmy Graham | 2013 | NOR | NFL | TE | 1215 | 7.6 | 16 | 8.4 |
15 | Sonny Randle | 1960 | STL | NFL | SE | 893 | 6.6 | 15 | 8.4 |
16 | Andre Rison | 1993 | ATL | NFL | WR | 1242 | 6.7 | 15 | 8.3 |
17 | Bill Groman | 1961 | HOU | AFL | WR | 1175 | 8.8 | 17 | 8.2 |
18 | Randy Moss | 2004 | MIN | NFL | WR | 767 | 4.9 | 13 | 8.1 |
19 | Braylon Edwards | 2007 | CLE | NFL | WR | 1289 | 7.9 | 16 | 8.1 |
20 | Gary Collins | 1963 | CLE | NFL | FL | 674 | 5 | 13 | 8 |
21 | Marvin Harrison | 2004 | IND | NFL | WR | 1113 | 7.1 | 15 | 7.9 |
22 | Leon Hart | 1951 | DET | NFL | RE | 544 | 4.1 | 12 | 7.9 |
23 | Terrell Owens | 2001 | SFO | NFL | WR | 1412 | 8.2 | 16 | 7.8 |
24 | Dwayne Bowe | 2010 | KAN | NFL | WR | 1162 | 7.2 | 15 | 7.8 |
25 | Dez Bryant | 2014 | DAL | NFL | WR | 1320 | 8.3 | 16 | 7.7 |
26 | Vernon Davis | 2013 | SFO | NFL | TE | 850 | 5.3 | 13 | 7.7 |
27 | Anthony Miller | 1995 | DEN | NFL | WR | 1079 | 6.3 | 14 | 7.7 |
28 | Paul Warfield | 1973 | MIA | NFL | WR | 514 | 3.3 | 11 | 7.7 |
29 | Visanthe Shiancoe | 2009 | MIN | NFL | TE | 566 | 3.4 | 11 | 7.6 |
30 | Jerry Rice | 1991 | SFO | NFL | WR | 1206 | 6.4 | 14 | 7.6 |
31 | Mark Clayton | 1988 | MIA | NFL | WR | 1129 | 6.4 | 14 | 7.6 |
32 | Cris Carter | 1989 | PHI | NFL | WR | 605 | 3.4 | 11 | 7.6 |
33 | Jordy Nelson | 2011 | GNB | NFL | WR | 1263 | 7.5 | 15 | 7.5 |
34 | Cloyce Box | 1952 | DET | NFL | LE | 924 | 7.5 | 15 | 7.5 |
35 | Don Hutson | 1942 | GNB | NFL | LE | 1211 | 9.6 | 17 | 7.4 |
36 | Nat Moore | 1977 | MIA | NFL | WR | 765 | 4.7 | 12 | 7.3 |
37 | Harold Jackson | 1973 | RAM | NFL | WR | 874 | 5.7 | 13 | 7.3 |
38 | James Jett | 1997 | OAK | NFL | WR | 804 | 4.7 | 12 | 7.3 |
39 | Randy Moss | 2003 | MIN | NFL | WR | 1632 | 9.8 | 17 | 7.2 |
40 | Vernon Davis | 2009 | SFO | NFL | TE | 965 | 5.8 | 13 | 7.2 |
41 | Dallas Clark | 2007 | IND | NFL | TE | 616 | 3.8 | 11 | 7.2 |
42 | Terrell Owens | 1998 | SFO | NFL | wr | 1097 | 6.8 | 14 | 7.2 |
43 | Wesley Walls | 1999 | CAR | NFL | TE | 822 | 4.8 | 12 | 7.2 |
44 | Chris Burford | 1962 | DTX | AFL | SE | 645 | 4.8 | 12 | 7.2 |
45 | Bubba Franks | 2001 | GNB | NFL | TE | 322 | 1.9 | 9 | 7.1 |
46 | Tony Martin | 1996 | SDG | NFL | WR | 1171 | 6.9 | 14 | 7.1 |
47 | John Jefferson | 1978 | SDG | NFL | WR | 1001 | 5.9 | 13 | 7.1 |
48 | Julius Thomas | 2013 | DEN | NFL | TE | 788 | 4.9 | 12 | 7.1 |
49 | Muhsin Muhammad | 2004 | CAR | NFL | WR | 1405 | 8.9 | 16 | 7.1 |
50 | Tommy McDonald | 1960 | PHI | NFL | FL | 801 | 5.9 | 13 | 7.1 |
Okay, but what about the fact that over the last two years, Thomas has scored 16 more touchdowns than expected! Is that the record? Well, it’s close, but Thomas still falls behind the two two-year Jerry Rice periods that straddle 1987, along with 2007-2008 Randy Moss. The table below shows the top 50 performances in this metric over a two-year period:
Rk | Player | Year 2 | Tm (Yr 2) | Lg (Yr 2) | Pos (Yr 2) | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jerry Rice | 1987 | SFO | NFL | WR | 20.9 |
2 | Randy Moss | 2008 | NWE | NFL | WR | 19.1 |
3 | Jerry Rice | 1988 | SFO | NFL | WR | 16.5 |
4 | Julius Thomas | 2014 | DEN | NFL | TE | 16 |
5 | Alyn Beals | 1949 | SFO | AAFC | RE | 15.9 |
6 | Sterling Sharpe | 1994 | GNB | NFL | WR | 15.8 |
7 | Rob Gronkowski | 2011 | NWE | NFL | TE | 15.7 |
8 | Randy Moss | 2004 | MIN | NFL | WR | 15.4 |
9 | Rob Gronkowski | 2012 | NWE | NFL | TE | 15.4 |
10 | Carl Pickens | 1996 | CIN | NFL | WR | 14.8 |
11 | Daryl Turner | 1985 | SEA | NFL | WR | 14.8 |
12 | Carl Pickens | 1995 | CIN | NFL | WR | 14.3 |
13 | Daryl Turner | 1986 | SEA | NFL | WR | 14.1 |
14 | Randy Moss | 2007 | NWE | NFL | WR | 13.6 |
15 | Nat Moore | 1978 | MIA | NFL | WR | 13.5 |
16 | Marvin Harrison | 2005 | IND | NFL | WR | 13.3 |
17 | Alyn Beals | 1948 | SFO | AAFC | RE | 13.2 |
18 | Sonny Randle | 1961 | STL | NFL | SE | 13.1 |
19 | Andre Rison | 1993 | ATL | NFL | WR | 13.1 |
20 | Dez Bryant | 2014 | DAL | NFL | WR | 13.1 |
21 | Terrell Owens | 2002 | SFO | NFL | WR | 13.1 |
22 | Jimmy Graham | 2014 | NOR | NFL | TE | 12.9 |
23 | Terrell Owens | 2007 | DAL | NFL | WR | 12.8 |
24 | James Jones | 2012 | GNB | NFL | WR | 12.5 |
25 | Terrell Owens | 2001 | SFO | NFL | WR | 12.5 |
26 | Cris Carter | 1998 | MIN | NFL | WR | 12.5 |
27 | Jerry Rice | 1990 | SFO | NFL | WR | 12.5 |
28 | Cris Carter | 1996 | MIN | NFL | WR | 12.1 |
29 | Gary Collins | 1964 | CLE | NFL | FL | 12.1 |
30 | Marvin Harrison | 2001 | IND | NFL | WR | 12 |
31 | Don Hutson | 1942 | GNB | NFL | LE | 11.9 |
32 | Tommy McDonald | 1961 | PHI | NFL | FL | 11.8 |
33 | Michael Jackson | 1996 | BAL | NFL | WR | 11.8 |
34 | Paul Coffman | 1984 | GNB | NFL | TE | 11.6 |
35 | Randy Moss | 1999 | MIN | NFL | WR | 11.6 |
36 | Jimmy Graham | 2013 | NOR | NFL | TE | 11.5 |
37 | Andre Rison | 1992 | ATL | NFL | WR | 11.5 |
38 | Bubba Franks | 2002 | GNB | NFL | TE | 11.5 |
39 | Jerry Rice | 1991 | SFO | NFL | WR | 11.5 |
40 | Cris Carter | 1999 | MIN | NFL | WR | 11.4 |
41 | Jerry Rice | 1994 | SFO | NFL | WR | 11.4 |
42 | Visanthe Shiancoe | 2009 | MIN | NFL | TE | 11.3 |
43 | Calvin Johnson | 2011 | DET | NFL | WR | 11.1 |
44 | Eric Decker | 2012 | DEN | NFL | WR | 11 |
45 | Tommy McDonald | 1960 | PHI | NFL | FL | 10.9 |
46 | Jerry Rice | 1992 | SFO | NFL | WR | 10.9 |
47 | Cloyce Box | 1952 | DET | NFL | LE | 10.8 |
48 | Mark Clayton | 1989 | MIA | NFL | WR | 10.8 |
49 | Randy Moss | 2009 | NWE | NFL | WR | 10.8 |
50 | Terrell Owens | 2008 | DAL | NFL | WR | 10.7 |
So if you feel like you’ve been watching a historically efficient player at converting yards into touchdowns, you’re right. But now there’s a new test for Thomas: seeing how he converts yards into touchdowns catching passes from Blake Bortles instead of Peyton Manning.
Oh, and Alyn Beals deserves his own post.