Lamar Jackson Leads The NFL In Adjusted Passer Rating

by Chase Stuart on December 13, 2019

Jackson is the overwhelming favorite to win the MVP award.

Six years ago, I wrote about tweaking the passer rating formula. I am going to update that article today, to better analyze the remarkable season that Ravens second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson is having.

The main updates:

1) There’s no reason to exclude sack data from passer rating. Sacks happen on passing plays, and a quarterback should *not* get more credit in the passer rating formula for taking a sack rather than throwing an incomplete pass.

2) Scrambles should be treated like completed passes, and rushing yards should be counted the same as passing yards. I am going to broaden this today to include all rushing attempts, excluding kneels. A 10-yard run is just as valuable as a 10-yard pass, and a scramble on 3rd down should impact completion percentage the same way a check down to the running back does. However, I am going to exclude all kneels from the data, which really shouldn’t be recorded as rushing plays to begin with.

3) Rushing touchdowns should be counted with passing touchdowns. This is self-evident.

4) Lost Fumbles should be counted with interceptions. Also self-evident.

Passer rating consists of four metrics, all weighted equally: completions per attempt, yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. I will use the same formula with the same weights and the same variables, but redefine what those variables are. Here are the new definitions, with the additions in blue. I have then shown the 2019 results, using the data as of this morning (i.e., through 14 weeks, plus the Ravens/Jets Thursday night game in week 15), for the 32 players with the most pass attempts so far this year.

Completion percentage is now (Completions plus Rushing Attempts minus Kneels) / (Pass Attempts plus Sacks plus Rushing Attempts minus Kneels).

Jackson leads the NFL in adjusted completion percentage: he is a very accurate quarterback, but he also loses out on some easy completions by running the ball when other passers would throw a short pass. A completion is considered good in the abstract because it means you aren’t throwing incomplete and usually are gaining yards. That same logic applies to a run, too. Jackson also doesn’t take many sacks. Buffalo QB Josh Allen also does much better in this analysis: his completion percentage ranks in the bottom three, but his adjusted completion percentage is basically average.

Rk	Player	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Rush	Kneel	Sk	Adj CMP	Adj ATT	Adj CMP%
1	Lamar Jackson	245	370	66.2%	159	17	23	387	535	72.3%
2	Drew Brees	206	280	73.6%	5	3	9	208	291	71.5%
3	Derek Carr	284	401	70.8%	24	7	20	301	438	68.7%
4	Ryan Tannehill	149	203	73.4%	34	13	24	170	248	68.5%
5	Kirk Cousins	272	388	70.1%	28	9	23	291	430	67.7%
6	Jimmy Garoppolo	273	393	69.5%	38	13	27	298	445	67%
7	Teddy Bridgewater	132	195	67.7%	22	7	11	147	221	66.5%
8	Deshaun Watson	295	436	67.7%	68	10	38	353	532	66.4%
9	Dak Prescott	325	496	65.5%	41	8	18	358	547	65.4%
10	Russell Wilson	280	419	66.8%	62	13	40	329	508	64.8%
11	Patrick Mahomes	253	392	64.5%	31	9	13	275	427	64.4%
12	Jacoby Brissett	228	361	63.2%	48	9	20	267	420	63.6%
13	Kyler Murray	293	457	64.1%	77	8	46	362	572	63.3%
14	Matt Ryan	321	481	66.7%	23	4	39	340	539	63.1%
15	Mitchell Trubisky	253	392	64.5%	36	6	28	283	450	62.9%
16	Josh Allen	242	405	59.8%	95	12	33	325	521	62.4%
17	Matthew Stafford	187	291	64.3%	20	6	18	201	323	62.2%
18	Philip Rivers	304	467	65.1%	11	2	27	313	503	62.2%
19	Aaron Rodgers	284	441	64.4%	38	14	31	308	496	62.1%
20	Carson Wentz	304	484	62.8%	50	7	33	347	560	62%
21	Jared Goff	305	484	63%	24	10	19	319	517	61.7%
22	Gardner Minshew	228	371	61.5%	50	8	25	270	438	61.6%
23	Ryan Fitzpatrick	229	368	62.2%	40	5	33	264	436	60.6%
24	Joe Flacco	171	262	65.3%	12	4	26	179	296	60.5%
25	Mason Rudolph	162	263	61.6%	19	7	14	174	289	60.2%
26	Daniel Jones	228	370	61.6%	39	4	33	263	438	60%
27	Jameis Winston	314	512	61.3%	53	11	41	356	595	59.8%
28	Sam Darnold	234	379	61.7%	26	10	29	250	424	59%
29	Tom Brady	316	522	60.5%	20	11	24	325	555	58.6%
30	Kyle Allen	253	407	62.2%	25	5	44	273	471	58%
31	Andy Dalton	248	413	60%	22	4	32	266	463	57.5%
32	Baker Mayfield	255	431	59.2%	20	2	33	273	482	56.6%

Yards per Attempt is now (Passing Yards plus Rushing Yards minus Sack Yards minus Yards Lost On Kneels) / (Pass Attempts plus Sacks plus Rush Attempts minus Kneels).

This makes a lot of sense: we are now looking at the yards gained on all plays, and dividing that number by the total number of plays. Tom Brady and Drew Brees still have great sack rates and don’t run often, and are boosted in this analysis. Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are better here, too, compared to their traditional yards/attempt numbers. And Ryan Tannehill, who is having a magical half-season, ranks first in both yards/attempt and adjusted yards per attempt.

Rk	Player	Yds	Att	Y/A	Rush Yd	Sack Yds	KnYd	Adj Yards	Rush	Kneel	Sk	Adj ATT	Adj Y/A
1	Ryan Tannehill	1993	203	9.82	147	178	-13	1975	34	13	24	248	7.96
2	Patrick Mahomes	3266	392	8.33	172	107	-9	3340	31	9	13	427	7.82
3	Dak Prescott	4122	496	8.31	223	134	-8	4219	41	8	18	547	7.71
4	Matthew Stafford	2499	291	8.59	66	137	-7	2435	20	6	18	323	7.54
5	Kirk Cousins	3274	388	8.44	49	166	-8	3165	28	9	23	430	7.36
6	Lamar Jackson	2889	370	7.81	1103	106	-18	3904	159	17	23	535	7.30
7	Philip Rivers	3748	467	8.03	24	161	-1	3612	11	2	27	503	7.18
8	Drew Brees	2140	280	7.64	0	65	-3	2078	5	3	9	291	7.14
9	Jimmy Garoppolo	3245	393	8.26	47	182	-13	3123	38	13	27	445	7.02
10	Derek Carr	3105	401	7.74	67	118	-7	3061	24	7	20	438	6.99
11	Jared Goff	3712	484	7.67	22	140	-11	3605	24	10	19	517	6.97
12	Jameis Winston	4115	512	8.04	225	256	-12	4096	53	11	41	595	6.88
13	Russell Wilson	3422	419	8.17	312	261	-13	3486	62	13	40	508	6.86
14	Deshaun Watson	3425	436	7.86	344	225	-10	3554	68	10	38	532	6.68
15	Aaron Rodgers	3260	441	7.39	162	245	-15	3192	38	14	31	496	6.44
16	Matt Ryan	3559	481	7.40	114	279	-4	3398	23	4	39	539	6.30
17	Gardner Minshew	2594	371	6.99	274	144	-8	2732	50	8	25	438	6.24
18	Baker Mayfield	3109	431	7.21	97	239	-2	2969	20	2	33	482	6.16
19	Jacoby Brissett	2496	361	6.91	167	121	-9	2551	48	9	20	420	6.07
20	Teddy Bridgewater	1370	195	7.03	37	86	-7	1328	22	7	11	221	6.01
21	Tom Brady	3437	522	6.58	32	169	-8	3308	20	11	24	555	5.96
22	Sam Darnold	2642	379	6.97	61	189	-12	2526	26	10	29	424	5.96
23	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2511	368	6.82	186	165	-10	2542	40	5	33	436	5.83
24	Josh Allen	2737	405	6.76	439	197	-12	2991	95	12	33	521	5.74
25	Carson Wentz	3165	484	6.54	197	206	-8	3164	50	7	33	560	5.65
26	Andy Dalton	2757	413	6.68	62	216	-6	2609	22	4	32	463	5.63
27	Kyler Murray	3060	457	6.70	448	305	-12	3215	77	8	46	572	5.62
28	Joe Flacco	1822	262	6.95	20	194	-4	1652	12	4	26	296	5.58
29	Mason Rudolph	1636	263	6.22	42	115	-7	1570	19	7	14	289	5.43
30	Mitchell Trubisky	2440	392	6.22	143	167	-6	2422	36	6	28	450	5.38
31	Daniel Jones	2374	370	6.42	241	263	-4	2356	39	4	33	438	5.38
32	Kyle Allen	2750	407	6.76	76	385	-5	2446	25	5	44	471	5.19

Touchdown Rate is now (Passing Touchdowns plus Rushing Touchdowns) / (Pass Attempts plus Sacks plus Rushing Attempts minus Kneels).

Again, this one is easy to understand. Jackson fares worse in this analysis, because his passing TD rate is sky high. That said, he still leads the NFL in this metric. Josh Allen is the main mover here.

Rk	Player	TD	Att	TD%	Rush TD	Adj TD	Rush	Kneel	Sk	Adj ATT	Adj TD%
1	Lamar Jackson	33	370	8.9%	7	40	159	17	23	535	7.5%
2	Ryan Tannehill	15	203	7.4%	3	18	34	13	24	248	7.3%
3	Drew Brees	17	280	6.1%	1	18	5	3	9	291	6.2%
4	Matthew Stafford	19	291	6.5%	0	19	20	6	18	323	5.9%
5	Jimmy Garoppolo	25	393	6.4%	1	26	38	13	27	445	5.8%
6	Deshaun Watson	24	436	5.5%	7	31	68	10	38	532	5.8%
7	Kirk Cousins	24	388	6.2%	1	25	28	9	23	430	5.8%
8	Russell Wilson	26	419	6.2%	3	29	62	13	40	508	5.7%
9	Patrick Mahomes	21	392	5.4%	1	22	31	9	13	427	5.2%
10	Jacoby Brissett	18	361	5%	3	21	48	9	20	420	5%
11	Dak Prescott	24	496	4.8%	3	27	41	8	18	547	4.9%
12	Aaron Rodgers	23	441	5.2%	1	24	38	14	31	496	4.8%
13	Josh Allen	17	405	4.2%	8	25	95	12	33	521	4.8%
14	Daniel Jones	18	370	4.9%	2	20	39	4	33	438	4.6%
15	Jameis Winston	26	512	5.1%	1	27	53	11	41	595	4.5%
16	Sam Darnold	17	379	4.5%	2	19	26	10	29	424	4.5%
17	Derek Carr	18	401	4.5%	1	19	24	7	20	438	4.3%
18	Matt Ryan	22	481	4.6%	1	23	23	4	39	539	4.3%
19	Mason Rudolph	12	263	4.6%	0	12	19	7	14	289	4.2%
20	Carson Wentz	22	484	4.5%	1	23	50	7	33	560	4.1%
21	Teddy Bridgewater	9	195	4.6%	0	9	22	7	11	221	4.1%
22	Mitchell Trubisky	16	392	4.1%	2	18	36	6	28	450	4%
23	Philip Rivers	20	467	4.3%	0	20	11	2	27	503	4%
24	Tom Brady	19	522	3.6%	3	22	20	11	24	555	4%
25	Kyle Allen	16	407	3.9%	2	18	25	5	44	471	3.8%
26	Baker Mayfield	15	431	3.5%	3	18	20	2	33	482	3.7%
27	Ryan Fitzpatrick	13	368	3.5%	3	16	40	5	33	436	3.7%
28	Kyler Murray	16	457	3.5%	4	20	77	8	46	572	3.5%
29	Gardner Minshew	15	371	4%	0	15	50	8	25	438	3.4%
30	Jared Goff	15	484	3.1%	2	17	24	10	19	517	3.3%
31	Andy Dalton	10	413	2.4%	3	13	22	4	32	463	2.8%
32	Joe Flacco	6	262	2.3%	0	6	12	4	26	296	2%

Adjusted INT Rate will replace Interception Rate in the formula, and is calculated as (Interceptions plus Fumbles Lost) / (Pass Attempts plus Sacks plus Rushing Attempts minus Kneels).

Giants rookie Daniel Jones has lost 10 fumbles this year, and he has the worst Adjusted INT rate (or turnover rate, if you prefer) in the league. Lamar Jackson moves up quite a bit in the rankings here, too: he almost never fumbles.

Rk	Player	Int	Att	Int%	Fum Lost	Adj INT	Rush	Kneel	Sk	Adj ATT	Adj INT%
1	Teddy Bridgewater	2	195	1%	0	2	22	7	11	221	0.9%
2	Patrick Mahomes	3	392	0.8%	2	5	31	9	13	427	1.2%
3	Aaron Rodgers	2	441	0.5%	4	6	38	14	31	496	1.2%
4	Lamar Jackson	6	370	1.6%	1	7	159	17	23	535	1.3%
5	Drew Brees	4	280	1.4%	0	4	5	3	9	291	1.4%
6	Russell Wilson	5	419	1.2%	2	7	62	13	40	508	1.4%
7	Tom Brady	7	522	1.3%	1	8	20	11	24	555	1.4%
8	Kyler Murray	9	457	2%	0	9	77	8	46	572	1.6%
9	Kirk Cousins	4	388	1%	3	7	28	9	23	430	1.6%
10	Mitchell Trubisky	8	392	2%	0	8	36	6	28	450	1.8%
11	Jacoby Brissett	6	361	1.7%	3	9	48	9	20	420	2.1%
12	Dak Prescott	11	496	2.2%	1	12	41	8	18	547	2.2%
13	Deshaun Watson	9	436	2.1%	3	12	68	10	38	532	2.3%
14	Josh Allen	8	405	2%	4	12	95	12	33	521	2.3%
15	Carson Wentz	7	484	1.4%	6	13	50	7	33	560	2.3%
16	Matthew Stafford	5	291	1.7%	3	8	20	6	18	323	2.5%
17	Derek Carr	8	401	2%	3	11	24	7	20	438	2.5%
18	Andy Dalton	9	413	2.2%	3	12	22	4	32	463	2.6%
19	Joe Flacco	5	262	1.9%	3	8	12	4	26	296	2.7%
20	Gardner Minshew	5	371	1.3%	7	12	50	8	25	438	2.7%
21	Matt Ryan	12	481	2.5%	4	16	23	4	39	539	3%
22	Ryan Fitzpatrick	12	368	3.3%	1	13	40	5	33	436	3%
23	Mason Rudolph	9	263	3.4%	0	9	19	7	14	289	3.1%
24	Ryan Tannehill	5	203	2.5%	3	8	34	13	24	248	3.2%
25	Sam Darnold	12	379	3.2%	2	14	26	10	29	424	3.3%
26	Philip Rivers	15	467	3.2%	2	17	11	2	27	503	3.4%
27	Jimmy Garoppolo	11	393	2.8%	5	16	38	13	27	445	3.6%
28	Jared Goff	14	484	2.9%	5	19	24	10	19	517	3.7%
29	Baker Mayfield	16	431	3.7%	2	18	20	2	33	482	3.7%
30	Kyle Allen	12	407	2.9%	7	19	25	5	44	471	4%
31	Jameis Winston	23	512	4.5%	5	28	53	11	41	595	4.7%
32	Daniel Jones	11	370	3%	10	21	39	4	33	438	4.8%

Finally, let’s put it all together and run these numbers through the NFL’s passer rating metric.

Rk	Player	Adj ATT	Adj CMP%	Adj Y/A	Adj TD%	Adj INT%	PR	Adj PR
1	Lamar Jackson	535	72.3	7.30	7.5%	1.3%	112.8	112.2
2	Drew Brees	291	71.5	7.14	6.2%	1.4%	109.5	106.3
3	Ryan Tannehill	248	68.5	7.96	7.3%	3.2%	118.5	103.1
4	Kirk Cousins	430	67.7	7.36	5.8%	1.6%	112.0	101.7
5	Patrick Mahomes	427	64.4	7.82	5.2%	1.2%	105.3	100.6
6	Russell Wilson	508	64.8	6.86	5.7%	1.4%	107.5	97.9
7	Dak Prescott	547	65.4	7.71	4.9%	2.2%	98.2	96.1
8	Deshaun Watson	532	66.4	6.68	5.8%	2.3%	100.9	95.2
9	Matthew Stafford	323	62.2	7.54	5.9%	2.5%	106.0	94.6
10	Derek Carr	438	68.7	6.99	4.3%	2.5%	100.0	92.5
11	Teddy Bridgewater	221	66.5	6.01	4.1%	0.9%	98.9	92.4
12	Aaron Rodgers	496	62.1	6.44	4.8%	1.2%	102.0	91.7
13	Jimmy Garoppolo	445	67	7.02	5.8%	3.6%	103.9	91.6
14	Jacoby Brissett	420	63.6	6.07	5%	2.1%	93.2	88.1
15	Josh Allen	521	62.4	5.74	4.8%	2.3%	85.8	84.4
16	Kyler Murray	572	63.3	5.62	3.5%	1.6%	86.9	83.3
17	Philip Rivers	503	62.2	7.18	4%	3.4%	90.7	83.0
18	Tom Brady	555	58.6	5.96	4%	1.4%	86.5	82.9
19	Mitchell Trubisky	450	62.9	5.38	4%	1.8%	86.9	82.8
20	Matt Ryan	539	63.1	6.30	4.3%	3%	93.4	82.8
21	Carson Wentz	560	62	5.65	4.1%	2.3%	90.8	81.3
22	Gardner Minshew	438	61.6	6.24	3.4%	2.7%	90.3	79.4
23	Jared Goff	517	61.7	6.97	3.3%	3.7%	84.8	78.2
24	Sam Darnold	424	59	5.96	4.5%	3.3%	84.3	77.2
25	Ryan Fitzpatrick	436	60.6	5.83	3.7%	3%	80.6	76.6
26	Jameis Winston	595	59.8	6.88	4.5%	4.7%	84.9	76.1
27	Mason Rudolph	289	60.2	5.43	4.2%	3.1%	80.3	75.8
28	Andy Dalton	463	57.5	5.63	2.8%	2.6%	78.9	72.0
29	Baker Mayfield	482	56.6	6.16	3.7%	3.7%	77.6	71.8
30	Joe Flacco	296	60.5	5.58	2%	2.7%	85.1	71.2
31	Daniel Jones	438	60	5.38	4.6%	4.8%	84.0	69.8
32	Kyle Allen	471	58	5.19	3.8%	4%	82.9	68.0

Jackson already ranks 2nd in traditional passer rating, but this metric does a much better job of comparing him to other quarterbacks. The average passer rating of these 32 quarterbacks is 93.9; the average adjusted passer rating is 86.3, mostly because of the sack penalty. Jackson, however, has nearly the same passer rating, dropping from 112.8 to 112.2. Every single quarterback has a lower adjusted passer rating than actual passer rating, but Jackson has the smallest drop.

The other quarterbacks with the smallest decline are Josh Allen (-1.4), Dak Prescott (-2.1), Drew Brees (-3.2), Kyler Murray (-3.5) and Tom Brady (-3.6). On the other hand, the five quarterbacks with the biggest decline are Jimmy Garoppolo (-12.3), Joe Flacco (-13.9), Daniel Jones (-14.2), Kyle Allen (-14.9), and Ryan Tannehill (-15.4).

What do you think?

Tagged as: Lamar Jackson, Passer Rating

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