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Kuechly’s stats match his hype

Do you know who led the NFL in tackles in 2016? It was Tampa Bay’s second-year linebacker Kwon Alexander, with 108 solo tackles.  If you give half-credit for assists, Kwon – who had 37 assists — would get 126.5 total tackles.  That would be the second-most in the league, just behind Seattle linebacker  Bobby Wagner (86 solos, 82 assists, for 127 total tackles).

Tackles aren’t a great stat for a lot of reasons.  One reason is the statistic treats all tackles the same.  Another is it ignores opportunity: the 49ers led the NFL last year with 855 total tackles (again, treating assists as half-tackles), which helped safety Antoine Bethea rank 9th in the league in solo tackles.  That’s because the 49ers defense was on the field a ton last year; meanwhile, the Eagles recorded the fewest total tackles in the NFL last season with just 699.  Eagles linebacker Nigel Bradham had 67 solos and 81 assists last year, but that total looks a lot better when you realize he was responsible for about 12% of all Eagles tackles in 2016.

In addition to looking at total tackle numbers as a percentage of his team’s tackles, there’s one other adjustment worth making. Carolina’s Luke Kuechly had 86.5 total tackles last year, good enough for 11.0% of Carolina’s 785 total tackles. But Kuechly played in just 10 games! If we multiply his 11.0% tackle share number by 16/10 — in other words, pro-rating for missed games — that means Kuechly gets credit for a whopping 17.6% of all Panthers tackles.

Another player who benefits from this sort of adjustment is Bears linebacker Jerrell Freeman, who had a great first season in Chicago. Freeman had 98 total tackles, or 12.5% of the Bears total tackles, despite missing four games.  If you pro-rate those numbers, he gets credit for 16.6% of all Chicago tackles, second in the league behind Kuechly.

Do this for every defensive player in the NFL, and the top three players in adjusted total tackle share are Kuechly, Freeman, and Wagner.  Alexander, while still impressive, drops to 7th via this method. Below are the top 75 players in pro-rated adjusted total tackle share.

RkPlayerTeamSoloAsstTotalTeam TotRatioGPro-Rated
1Luke KuechlyCAR713186.578511%1017.6%
2Jerrell FreemanCHI86249878512.5%1216.6%
3Bobby WagnerSEA868212777216.5%1616.5%
4Sean LeeDAL9352119785.515.1%1516.2%
5Vontaze BurfictCIN732887783.511.1%1116.2%
6Zach OrrBAL8941109.5730.515%1516%
7Kwon AlexanderTAM10837126.579415.9%1615.9%
8Tahir WhiteheadDET9933115.5780.514.8%1515.8%
9Zach BrownBUF9752123812.515.1%1615.1%
10Alec OgletreeLAR9838117777.515%1615%
11Paul PoslusznyJAX9736115765.515%1615%
12Christian KirkseyCLE9350118798.514.8%1614.8%
13Jamie CollinsCLE482158.5798.57.3%814.7%
14Benardrick McKinneyHOU7950104711.514.6%1614.6%
15Jonathan CyprienJAX9630111765.514.5%1614.5%
16Telvin SmithJAX9820108765.514.1%1614.1%
17Malcolm SmithOAK861794.573412.9%1513.7%
18Landon CollinsNYG10025112.584513.3%1613.3%
19Mark BarronLAR9027103.5777.513.3%1613.3%
20Keanu NealATL723388.5776.511.4%1413%
21Danny TrevathanCHI491757.57857.3%913%
22Preston BrownBUF7659105.5812.513%1613%
23Ramik WilsonKAN611568.57708.9%1112.9%
24Eric KendricksMIN703989.573812.1%1512.9%
25Craig RobertsonNOR70449276512%1512.8%
26Derrick JohnsonKAN70208077010.4%1312.8%
27K.J. WrightSEA70549777212.6%1612.6%
28Mason FosterWAS8835105.584012.6%1612.6%
29Clayton GeathersIND49953.57637%912.5%
30Deion JonesATL753190.5776.511.7%1512.4%
31Barry ChurchDAL612473785.59.3%1212.4%
32Harrison SmithMIN69228073810.8%1412.4%
33Lawrence TimmonsPIT783696782.512.3%1612.3%
34Deone BucannonARI642576.5775.59.9%1312.1%
35Avery WilliamsonTEN733188.5737.512%1612%
36Antoine BetheaSFO9515102.585512%1612%
37Kiko AlonsoMIA694591.581811.2%1511.9%
38Nigel BradhamPHI673182.569911.8%1611.8%
39Jatavis BrownSDG631369.5788.58.8%1211.8%
40Karlos DansbyCIN694591.5783.511.7%1611.7%
41C.J. MosleyBAL563674730.510.1%1411.6%
42Jamie CollinsNWE311237736.55%711.5%
43David HarrisNYJ62327872510.8%1511.5%
44Tony JeffersonARI741883775.510.7%1511.4%
45Thomas DavisCAR733389.578511.4%1611.4%
46D'Qwell JacksonIND5226657638.5%1211.4%
47Jahleel AddaeSDG41744.5788.55.6%811.3%
48Morgan BurnettGNB682379.575410.5%1511.2%
49Logan RyanNWE731982.5736.511.2%1611.2%
50T.J. WardDEN6918787969.8%1411.2%
51Ryan ShazierPIT553271782.59.1%1311.2%
52Kenny VaccaroNOR501758.57657.6%1111.1%
53Kam ChancellorSEA4734647728.3%1211.1%
54Kurt ColemanCAR65308078510.2%1510.9%
55Tavon WilsonDET721579.5780.510.2%1510.9%
56Bradley McDougaldTAM79128579410.7%1610.7%
57Denzel PerrymanSDG551663788.58%1210.7%
58Rodney McLeodPHI68127469910.6%1610.6%
59Jake RyanGNB562568.57549.1%1410.4%
60William ComptonWAS604381.58409.7%1510.3%
61Jordan HicksPHI58287269910.3%1610.3%
62Eric ReidSFO4814558556.4%1010.3%
63Todd DavisDEN643380.579610.1%1610.1%
64Donte WhitnerWAS491757.58406.8%1110%
65Demario DavisCLE594079798.59.9%169.9%
66Mike AdamsIND621770.57639.2%159.9%
67Jason McCourtyTEN59863737.58.5%149.8%
68Ricardo AllenATL612975.5776.59.7%169.7%
69Lavonte DavidTAM6720777949.7%169.7%
70Xavien HowardMIA291134.58184.2%79.6%
71Devin McCourtyNWE641471736.59.6%169.6%
72E.J. GainesLAR47951.5777.56.6%119.6%
73Shawn WilliamsCIN592270783.58.9%159.5%
74Darron LeeNYJ4228567257.7%139.5%
75Daryl WorleyCAR622574.57859.5%169.5%

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments. And see if you can spot the player who appears twice on the list.

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