In 2016, Matthew Stafford averaged just 5.8 air yards per attempt on completed passes.

In 2017, Stafford averaged 6.0 air yards per attempt on completions.

In 2018, the Lions franchise quarterback averaged an anemic 4.8 AYpAoCP.

But this season, through six weeks, Stafford leads the NFL in AYpAoCP, posting a whopping 8.1 average.

There are 23 quarterbacks who threw at least 100 passes last season and, as of today, have thrown at least 100 passes so far this season. This includes Joe Flacco (Baltimore in 2018, Denver in 2019), Case Keenum (Denver, Washington), and Josh Rosen (Arizona, Miami). The graph below shows the Air Yards per Attempt on Completed Passes for all 23 quarterbacks in both 2018 (X-Axis) and 2019 (Y-Axis). The NFL logo represents the quarterback on his 2019 team. Jameis Winston, unsurprisingly, stands out here: he ranks second in this metric in both seasons. Also unsurprising is Derek Carr ranking very low in both years. But Stafford (and Dak Prescott) stand out as big movers:

So what’s happening in Detroit? There have been two big shifts: the Lions are throwing downfield to their wide receivers much more often than last season, and throws to the tight end are replacing throws to the running backs.

Based on PFR’s numbers, which are slightly different than the NextGen numbers (PFR has Stafford at 4.8 AYpAoCP last year and at 8.2 this year), the Lions top two wide receivers are both getting downfield more in 2019. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones averaged 10.2 and 11.6 air yards on catches last year, respectively; this year, Golladay is at 11.3 and Jones at 13.4, respectively. In addition, Jones, the deep threat, missed half of last season and was responsible for only 11% of Lions receptions; this year, he’s picked up 19% of all of Stafford’s completed passes. And while I normally wouldn’t make much of a player with 3 receptions, Marvin Hall has 78 air yards on those 3 receptions, and those three plays alone have boosted Stafford’s AYpAoCP by about half a yard.

The other notable change in Detroit’s passing offense is that running back receptions have been cut by a third. Last year, Lions running backs had 30% of all Detroit receptions; this year, that percentage is just 20%. The graph below shows the percentage of catches by Lions running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers in each of the last four years, with 2019 data through week six:

Detroit drafted T.J. Hockenson in the first round of the 2019 Draft, and he’s made an impact early on. He’s third on the team in both receptions and receiving yards, and while he isn’t a huge downfield threat, passes to tight ends are much different than passes to running backs.

The average pass to a Lions running back last year was behind the line of scrimmage; if 30% of your passes are to players who have negative air yards as a group, that’s going to seriously deflate a passer’s AYpAoCP. Passes to Hockenson have replaced those, and together with the deeper passes to his wide receivers, Stafford is having a very different-looking 2019 season. And while today’s focus is solely on the stylistic change in the Lions offense, it also is resulting in much better numbers, too: Stafford’s ANY/A has spiked to a career high 7.66, thanks to him posting career highs in yards per completion and yards per attempt.