Most Dominant Fantasy Players Since 1950: Quarterbacks

by Chase Stuart on July 15, 2015

What was the most dominant fantasy season of all time? You might think Peyton Manning 2013, but let me throw out another candidate: Steve Young, 1998.

I am using the following scoring system throughout this series: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, 0.5 points per reception.

In 2013, Manning threw for 5,477 yards and 55 TDs with just 10 interceptions, while rushing for -31 yards but with one TD. That comes out to 486.75 fantasy points. In 1998, Young threw for 4,170 yards with 36 TDs and 12 INTs, but also ran for 454 yards and 6 TDs. That is equal to 421.90 fantasy points. So, advantage Manning.

But we measure fantasy dominance “not by the number of points he scores[, but] by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position.” Those are the words of Joe Bryant in his famous VBD article, and I’ll make an appendix to that for historical purposes: the key is how much a player outscores his peers at his particular position in that particular year.

When calculating VBD scores, the standard is to use the 12th-ranked quarterback. In 2013, the 12th=-ranked QB scored 309.2 fantasy points, which means Manning outscored him by 177.55 fantasy points (or we could say that Manning produced 178 points of VBD). In 1998, the 12th-ranked quarterback scored just 235.6 fantasy points, which means Young finished with 186.3 points of VBD. So, advantage, Young.

But there’s another piece of the puzzle that tips the scales even more towards the 49ers quarterback. In 1998, Young missed one game. For fantasy purposes, it’s more valuable to have a quarterback produced X points in 15 games than it is for him to produce X points in 16 games, because you can play someone else during that 16th game.

So here’s what I did (I am open to other methods, as there are several ways to skin this cat). For each quarterback season since 1950, I calculated the number of fantasy points scored by all quarterbacks. Then, I measured how many FP were scored by QB 12 ^[1]Well, QB12 for every year since 1968. In 1966 and 1967, I used QB10 as the cut-off, since there were fewer than 26 teams that year. From ’61 to ’65, I used QB8, as there were 22 … Continue reading and divided that by 16.

So for 1998, the baseline is 14.73 FP/G, which means Young — who averaged 28.13 FP/G — finished with 13.4 FP/G above average. We multiply that by his number of games played (15) to get his VBD score of 201 fantasy points. ^[2]Note: At this step, I pro-rated the VBD number for every NFL season with fewer than 16 games, but that’s obviously not an issue when it comes to Young/Manning. As it turns out, 201 points is the highest VBD season by any quarterback since 1950, just narrowly edging out Dan Marino in 1984.

Let’s use that season to guide you through the table below, which shows the top 200 seasons by a quarterback in fantasy history. That year, Marino threw for 5,084 yards, with 48 TDs and 17 INTs. He rushed for -7 yards and 0 touchdowns, which comes to 428.5 fantasy points. He played a full 16-game slate, so he averaged 26.78 FP/G. The baseline in 1984 (i.e., QB12) was 14.25 Fp/G, so Marino averaegd 12.53 FP/G above the baseline. Multiply that by 16 (the number of games he played), and Marino had a VBD of 200.5 in 1984.

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Rk	Player	Yr	Tm	PYD	TD	INT	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	FP	G	FP/G	Base	Diff	VBD
1	Steve Young	1998	SFO	4170	36	12	70	454	6	421.9	15	28.13	14.73	13.4	201
2	Dan Marino	1984	MIA	5084	48	17	28	-7	0	428.5	16	26.78	14.25	12.53	200.5
3	Tom Brady	2007	NWE	4806	50	8	37	98	2	454.1	16	28.38	16.44	11.94	191
4	Randall Cunningham	1990	PHI	3466	30	13	118	942	5	404.5	16	25.28	13.6	11.68	187
5	Warren Moon	1990	HOU	4689	33	13	55	215	2	387	15	25.8	13.6	12.2	183
6	Tobin Rote	1956	GNB	2203	18	15	84	398	11	273	12	22.75	11.34	11.41	182.5
7	Aaron Rodgers	2011	GNB	4643	45	6	60	257	3	449.9	15	29.99	17.88	12.11	181.6
8	Steve Young	1994	SFO	3969	35	10	58	293	7	399.8	16	24.98	13.8	11.18	178.9
9	Peyton Manning	2013	DEN	5477	55	10	32	-31	1	486.8	16	30.42	19.33	11.1	177.6
10	Drew Brees	2011	NOR	5476	46	14	21	86	1	458.4	16	28.65	17.88	10.77	172.3
11	Johnny Unitas	1959	BAL	2899	32	14	29	145	2	285.5	12	23.79	13.18	10.61	169.8
12	Daunte Culpepper	2004	MIN	4717	39	11	88	406	2	433.5	16	27.09	16.74	10.35	165.6
13	Dan Marino	1986	MIA	4746	44	23	12	-3	0	390	16	24.38	14.26	10.12	161.9
14	Brett Favre	1995	GNB	4413	38	13	39	181	3	395.8	16	24.73	14.65	10.08	161.3
15	Brett Favre	1996	GNB	3899	39	13	49	136	2	363.6	16	22.72	12.78	9.94	159.1
16	Kurt Warner	1999	STL	4353	41	13	23	92	1	383.9	16	23.99	14.42	9.58	153.2
17	Daunte Culpepper	2000	MIN	3937	33	16	89	470	7	401.9	16	25.12	15.55	9.57	153.1
18	Randall Cunningham	1988	PHI	3808	24	16	93	624	6	368.8	16	23.05	13.66	9.39	150.2
19	Peyton Manning	2004	IND	4557	49	10	25	38	0	417.7	16	26.1	16.74	9.36	149.8
20	Randall Cunningham	1987	PHI	2786	23	12	76	505	3	288	12	24	12.33	11.67	149.4
21	Johnny Unitas	1960	BAL	3099	25	24	36	195	0	250.5	12	20.87	11.58	9.3	148.7
22	Tom Brady	2011	NWE	5235	39	12	43	109	3	434.7	16	27.17	17.88	9.28	148.6
23	Vinny Testaverde	1996	BAL	4177	33	19	34	188	2	352.7	16	22.04	12.78	9.26	148.2
24	Steve Beuerlein	1999	CAR	4436	36	15	27	124	2	375.2	16	23.45	14.42	9.03	144.6
25	Jeff Garcia	2000	SFO	4278	31	10	72	414	4	393.3	16	24.58	15.55	9.03	144.5

Showing 1 to 25 of 200 entries

Young’s dominance really stands out in the above table, with 6 seasons in the top 65. In fact, only one other quarterback has even five seasons in the top 100 — and that’s, surprisingly enough, Joe Montana. Dan Marino and Randall Cunningham are the only other players with four seasons in the top 70, but neither of them have four in the top 65, making Young’s dominance even more impressive.

However, when it comes to career VBD, Peyton Manning stills beats Young — and everyone else — based on longevity. Below are the career VBD ratings, which are simply the sum of the single-season grades (but seasons with a negative VBD are discarded).

Search:

Rk	Player	First Yr	Last Yr	VBD
1	Peyton Manning	1998	2014	1243
2	Dan Marino	1983	1999	1194
3	Brett Favre	1991	2010	1032
4	Fran Tarkenton	1961	1978	1027
5	Steve Young	1985	1999	998
6	Drew Brees	2001	2014	903
7	John Elway	1983	1998	892
8	Warren Moon	1984	2000	882
9	Randall Cunningham	1985	2001	872
10	Joe Montana	1979	1994	871
11	Dan Fouts	1973	1987	757
12	Johnny Unitas	1956	1973	711
13	Tom Brady	2000	2014	684
14	Roger Staubach	1969	1979	679
15	Aaron Rodgers	2005	2014	676
16	Daunte Culpepper	1999	2009	579
17	Donovan McNabb	1999	2011	577
18	Ken Anderson	1971	1986	573
19	Jim Kelly	1986	1996	527
20	Sonny Jurgensen	1957	1974	509
21	Roman Gabriel	1962	1977	498
22	Boomer Esiason	1984	1997	483
23	Kurt Warner	1998	2009	476
24	Terry Bradshaw	1970	1983	474
25	John Hadl	1962	1977	418
26	Steve Grogan	1975	1990	411
27	Jim Everett	1986	1997	395
28	Daryle Lamonica	1963	1974	390
29	Tobin Rote	1950	1966	390
30	Dave Krieg	1980	1998	381
31	Bert Jones	1973	1982	377
32	Drew Bledsoe	1993	2006	376
33	Neil Lomax	1981	1988	374
34	Michael Vick	2001	2014	374
35	Rich Gannon	1987	2004	368
36	Vinny Testaverde	1987	2007	366
37	Y.A. Tittle	1948	1964	365
38	John Brodie	1957	1973	357
39	Tony Romo	2004	2014	348
40	Steve McNair	1995	2007	344
41	Jeff Garcia	1999	2011	329
42	Joe Namath	1965	1977	323
43	Mark Brunell	1994	2011	317
44	Bobby Layne	1948	1962	306
45	Jim Hart	1966	1984	294
46	Philip Rivers	2004	2014	287
47	Ben Roethlisberger	2004	2014	287
48	Jeff Blake	1992	2005	280
49	Brian Sipe	1974	1983	278
50	Ken Stabler	1970	1984	275
51	Greg Landry	1968	1984	274
52	Phil Simms	1979	1993	269
53	Cam Newton	2011	2014	269
54	Otto Graham	1946	1955	263
55	Trent Green	1997	2008	250
56	Tommy Kramer	1977	1990	249
57	Danny White	1976	1988	244
58	Jim Plunkett	1971	1986	238
59	Joe Theismann	1974	1985	236
60	Jim Zorn	1976	1987	236
61	Archie Manning	1971	1984	236
62	Bob Griese	1967	1980	232
63	Jeff George	1990	2001	232
64	Marc Bulger	2002	2009	229
65	Len Dawson	1957	1975	227
66	Norm Snead	1961	1976	218
67	Mark Rypien	1988	2001	207
68	Matthew Stafford	2009	2014	201
69	Billy Kilmer	1961	1978	200
70	Doug Williams	1978	1989	197
71	Scott Mitchell	1991	2001	193
72	Joe Ferguson	1973	1990	193
73	Charley Johnson	1961	1975	190
74	Norm Van Brocklin	1949	1960	186
75	Bernie Kosar	1985	1996	180

Have at it!

References[+]

References
↑1	Well, QB12 for every year since 1968. In 1966 and 1967, I used QB10 as the cut-off, since there were fewer than 26 teams that year. From ’61 to ’65, I used QB8, as there were 22 professional teams. 1960 was handled uniquely, since the AFL and NFL played a disparate number of games. I used QB3 for 8-team the AFL and QB4 for the 13-team NFL. For the years from 1950 to 1960, I used QB4 as the baseline.
↑2	Note: At this step, I pro-rated the VBD number for every NFL season with fewer than 16 games, but that’s obviously not an issue when it comes to Young/Manning.

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