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The fantasy GOAT

The fantasy GOAT

Yesterday, we looked at the most dominant quarterbacks in fantasy history. Today, the running backs, using the methodology described yesterday. Let’s look at the three best seasons in fantasy history, since all shed light on the formula here. Those three are LaDainian Tomlinson, 2006, which is easy to argue as the best year ever as Tomlinson shattered the record for fantasy points scored. But O.J. Simpson in 1975 (not ’73) was also dominant, and did so in a 14-game season and when the baseline was lower. The darkhorse candidate is Priest Holmes, 2002, who put up insane numbers but missed two games due to injury.

I am using the following scoring system throughout this series: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, 0.5 points per reception.

In 2006, Tomlinson rushed for 1,815 yards with 28 TDs, caught 56 passes for 508 yards and 3 touchdowns, and even threw for 20 yards and two touchdowns. He totaled a still mind-boggling 455.3 fantasy points. On a per game basis, Tomlinson averaged 28.46 FP/G, while the baseline — which for these purposes is RB24 [1]Baselines used in this series: From 1968 to 2014, RB24. In ’66 and ’67, RB20, and from ’61 to ’65, RB16. In the 1960 AFL, the baseline is RB6, while it is RB8 in the NFL. From … Continue reading — was at 10.75 FP/G. Therefore, Tomlinson averaged 17.71 FP/G over the baseline, and he did it for 16 games, giving him a VBD of 283.3 fantasy points (17.71 x 16).

By using per game averages, we more closely approximate the way fantasy football really works, and that helps out Holmes in 2002. That year, he rushed for 1,615 yards and 21 touchdowns, while producing an impressive 70-672-3 stat line through the air.  That comes out to 407.7 fantasy points, but he did that despite missing two games due to injury.  Therefore, his per-game average was 29.12 FP/G, even higher than what Tomlinson did in 2006!

The baseline was also slightly lower: in 2002, RB24 scored 155.7 fantasy points, which comes out to 9.73 FP/G.  So Holmes averaged 19.39 FP/G above the baseline, the most by any fantasy running back in history.  However, that comes out to 271.5 points of VBD, meaning 19.4 for 14 is still not quite as dominant as 17.7 FP/G for 16 games.

What about Simpson? Well, in ’75, he rushed for 1,817 yards and 16 touchdowns, whiel chipping in with 28-426-7 in the receiving game. That’s 376.3 fantasy points, or 26.88 FP/G. The baseline was just 9.35 FP/G, so Simpson was 17.53 FP/G above the baseline. Because his 14-game season was the full year — i.e., he didn’t miss games due to injury like Holmes — we pro-rate those numbers to a full season, and multiply 17.53 by 16 to give him… 280.5 points of VBD. That’s still behind Tomlinson, but good enough for the second best fantasy season by a running back since 1950.

The table below shows the top 200 fantasy seasons using this methodology:

RkPlayerYrTmRshYdTDRecYdTDFPGFP/GBaseDiffVBD
1LaDainian Tomlinson2006SDG348181528565083455.31628.4610.7517.71283.3
2O.J. Simpson1975BUF329181716284267376.31426.889.3517.53280.5
3Priest Holmes2002KAN313161521706723407.71429.129.7319.39271.5
4Priest Holmes2003KAN3201420277469004101625.639.3316.29260.7
5Marshall Faulk2000STL253135918818308415.41429.6711.3418.33256.6
6Marshall Faulk2001STL260138212837659382.21427.39.0318.27255.8
7LaDainian Tomlinson2003SDG3131645131007254394.11624.639.3315.3244.8
8Chuck Foreman1975MIN280107013736919344.61424.619.3515.26244.2
9Emmitt Smith1995DAL377177325623750395.81624.749.5915.14242.3
10Terrell Davis1998DEN3922008212521723731623.318.6714.64234.3
11Marcus Allen1982RAI16069711384013215.2923.9110.0113.89222.3
12Emmitt Smith1992DAL373171318593351348.31621.777.9813.79220.7
13Ahman Green2003GNB3551883155036753701623.139.3313.79220.7
14Jim Brown1965CLE289154417343284336.21424.0110.4113.6217.7
15Walter Payton1977CHI339185214272692321.61422.979.4513.52216.3
16Marshall Faulk1999STL253138178710485358.41622.48.8813.52216.3
17Arian Foster2010HOU3271616166660423631622.699.3813.31213
18Chris Johnson2009TEN358200614505032371.91623.241013.24211.9
19Shaun Alexander2005SEA37018802715781371.31623.219.9713.24211.8
20Jamaal Charles2013KAN2591287127069373471523.139.4413.69205.3
21Edgerrin James1999IND369155313625864346.91621.688.8812.8204.8
22James Wilder1984TAM407154413856850348.21621.769.0112.75204.1
23Steven Jackson2006STL346152813908063374.41623.410.7512.65202.4
24Jim Brown1963CLE291186312242683315.11422.5110.1412.36197.8
25Emmitt Smith1994DAL368148421503411339.51522.639.5113.12196.8
26DeMarco Murray2014DAL392184513574160332.61620.798.5112.28196.5
27Eric Dickerson1983RAM390180818514042366.71622.9210.7812.14194.2
28Leroy Kelly1968CLE248123916222974290.31420.748.612.13194.1
29Le'Veon Bell2014PIT290136188385433291620.568.5112.06192.9
30Adrian Peterson2012MIN348209712402171329.41620.598.5412.04192.7
31Larry Johnson2005KAN336175020333431351.81621.999.9712.02192.3
32Ricky Williams2002MIA383185316473631347.11621.699.7311.96191.4
33LaDainian Tomlinson2002SDG372168314794891346.71621.679.7311.94191
34Marcus Allen1984RAI275116813647585334.51620.919.0111.9190.4
35LaDainian Tomlinson2007SDG315147415604753337.81621.119.2911.82189.2
36Marcus Allen1985RAI380175911675553349.71621.8610.0711.79188.6
37Edgerrin James2000IND387170913635945369.81623.1111.3411.77188.3
38Brian Westbrook2007PHI27813337907715327.41521.839.2912.54188.1
39Barry Sanders1997DET335205311333053336.31621.029.2911.73187.6
40Jamal Anderson1998ATL4101846142731923261620.388.6711.71187.3
41Marshall Faulk1998IND32413196869084325.71620.368.6711.69187
42Lydell Mitchell1975BAL289119311605444293.71420.989.3511.63186.1
43Dalton Hilliard1989NOR344126213525145317.41619.838.2811.56185
44Thurman Thomas1992BUF31214879586263312.31619.527.9811.54184.7
45LaDainian Tomlinson2005SDG339146218513702343.11621.449.9711.47183.6
46Larry Johnson2006KAN416178917414102354.41622.1510.7511.4182.4
47Roger Craig1985SFO214105099210166342.61621.4110.0711.34181.5
48Barry Sanders1991DET3421548164130713081520.538.5112.03180.4
49Jim Brown1958CLE257152717161381282.51223.5412.3111.23179.7
50Thurman Thomas1991BUF28814077626315306.81520.458.5111.95179.2
51Wendell Tyler1982RAM1375649383754190.9921.2110.0111.2179.2
52Ray Rice2011BAL291136412767043338.91621.189.9811.2179.2
53Terrell Davis1997DEN369175015422870314.71520.989.2911.69175.3
54Jamal Lewis2003BAL387206614262050324.11620.269.3310.93174.8
55Eric Dickerson1984RAM379210514211390317.91619.879.0110.86173.8
56Otis Armstrong1974DEN26314079384053272.21419.448.6210.82173.1
57Tiki Barber2005NYG357186095453023321620.759.9710.78172.5
58Clinton Portis2003DEN290159114383140293.51322.589.3313.25172.2
59O.J. Simpson1973BUF3322003126700282.21420.159.7310.43166.8
60Billy Sims1980DET313130313516213313.91619.629.3210.3164.8
61Chuck Foreman1976MIN278115513555671283.71420.2610.0110.26164.1
62Priest Holmes2001KAN32715558626142307.91619.249.0310.21163.4
63Barry Sanders1990DET255130413364803292.41618.288.2110.06161
64Thurman Thomas1989BUF29812446606696293.31618.338.2810.06160.9
65Chuck Foreman1974MIN1997779535866252.81319.458.6210.82160.8
66Emmitt Smith1993DAL28314869574141278.51419.898.4411.45160.3
67Barry Foster1992PIT390169011363440287.41617.967.989.99159.8
68Matt Forte2014CHI266103861028084295.61618.488.519.97159.5
69Walter Payton1984CHI381168411453680303.11618.949.019.93158.9
70Fred Taylor1998JAX264122314444213288.41519.238.6710.56158.4
71Tiki Barber2004NYG322151813525782325.61620.3510.469.89158.2
72LaDainian Tomlinson2004SDG3391335175344113141520.9310.4610.47157.1
73Eric Dickerson1988IND388165914363771311.61619.489.689.79156.7
74LeSean McCoy2011PHI273130917483153306.41520.439.9810.45156.7
75William Andrews1981ATL289130110817352316.11619.769.999.77156.3
76Terry Allen1996WAS347135321321940296.71618.548.789.77156.3
77LeSean McCoy2013PHI31416079525392306.61619.169.449.72155.5
78Terry Allen1992MIN266120113494782282.41617.657.989.68154.8
79Larry Brown1972WAS28512168324734256.91221.4110.1211.29154.8
80Bill Brown1964MIN2268667487039276.91419.7810.119.67154.7
81Thurman Thomas1990BUF271129711495322285.41617.848.219.63154
82Neal Anderson1989CHI274127511504344285.91617.878.289.59153.5
83Lenny Moore1958BAL825987509387262.61221.8812.319.58153.2
84Billy Sims1981DET296143713284512292.81420.919.9910.93153
85Arian Foster2011HOU278122410536172282.61321.749.9811.76152.8
86Doug Martin2012TAM319145411494721289.11618.078.549.53152.4
87Terrell Davis1996DEN345153813363102292.81618.38.789.53152.4
88Abner Haynes1962DTX221104913395736295.71421.1211.649.49151.8
89Jim Brown1961CLE30514088464592275.61419.6810.29.48151.7
90Marshawn Lynch2014SEA280130613373674287.81617.998.519.48151.7
91Adrian Peterson2009MIN314138318434360311.41619.46109.46151.4
92Matt Forte2013CHI28913399745943302.31618.899.449.45151.2
93Shaun Alexander2004SEA353169616231704318.11619.8810.469.42150.7
94Gale Sayers1965CHI16686714295076277.61419.8310.419.42150.7
95Ahman Green2001GNB30413879625942295.11618.449.039.41150.6
96Frank Gifford1956NYG1598195516034230.51219.29.89.4150.5
97Clinton Portis2002DEN273150815333642305.71619.119.739.38150
98Arian Foster2012HOU351142415402172286.11617.888.549.34149.4
99Deuce McAllister2003NOR35116418695160298.21618.649.339.31148.9
100Earl Campbell1980HOU37319341311470288.51519.239.329.91148.7
101Ricky Watters1996PHI3531411135144402891618.068.789.29148.6
102Emmitt Smith1991DAL365156312492581284.61617.798.519.28148.5
103Jim Taylor1964GNB235116912383543261.31320.110.119.99148.5
104Arian Foster2014HOU26012468383275258.61319.898.5111.38148
105Deuce McAllister2002NOR325138813473523293.51519.579.739.84147.5
106Barry Sanders1989DET280147014242820271.21518.088.289.81147.1
107Roger Craig1988SFO31015029765341301.61618.859.689.17146.7
108Ron Johnson1972NYG29811829454515269.81419.2710.129.15146.4
109Rick Casares1956CHI234112612232032227.41218.959.89.15146.4
110Charlie Garner2002OAK1829627919414301.81618.869.739.13146.1
111Walter Payton1979CHI369161014313132310.51619.4110.329.09145.4
112Shaun Alexander2002SEA2951175165946023011618.819.739.08145.3
113Garrison Hearst1998SFO310157073953522841617.758.679.08145.3
114Tiki Barber2002NYG304138711695970298.91618.689.738.95143.2
115Herschel Walker1987DAL2098917607151238.61219.888.711.18143.1
116William Andrews1982ATL1395735425032170.6918.9610.018.94143.1
117Ron Johnson1970NYG26310278484874247.41417.678.748.94143
118Don Woods1974SDG22711627263493228.51219.048.6210.42142.9
119Walter Payton1985CHI32415519494832302.71618.9210.078.85141.6
120Edgerrin James2005IND360150613443371290.31519.359.979.38140.8
121Stephen Davis1999WAS290140517231110265.11418.948.8810.05140.8
122Shaun Alexander2003SEA3261435144229522901618.139.338.79140.7
123Lydell Mitchell1977BAL30111593716204255.41418.249.458.79140.7
124William Andrews1983ATL33115677596094313.11619.5710.788.79140.6
125Chuck Muncie1981SDG251114419433620290.31519.359.999.36140.4
126Gerald Riggs1984ATL353148613422770275.31518.359.019.34140.2
127Wilbert Montgomery1979PHI33815129414945305.11619.0710.328.75140
128Shaun Alexander2001SEA309131814443432284.11617.769.038.73139.6
129Maurice Jones-Drew2009JAX3121391155337412991618.69108.69139
130Domanick Williams2004HOU302118813685881295.61519.7110.469.24138.7
131Jim Brown1962CLE23099613475175284.21420.311.648.66138.6
132Billy Cannon1961HOU2009486435869263.91418.8510.28.65138.4
133Jim Taylor1962GNB2721474192210602831420.2111.648.58137.3
134Earl Campbell1979HOU36816971916940301.11618.8210.328.5136
135Eddie George2000TEN403150914504532317.21619.8311.348.48135.7
136Eddie George1999TEN32013049474584277.71617.368.888.48135.6
137Lorenzo White1992HOU26512267576411263.21616.457.988.48135.6
138Leroy Kelly1966CLE209114115323661262.71418.7610.298.47135.5
139Brian Westbrook2006PHI24012177776994296.11519.7410.758.99134.9
140Barry Sanders1994DET33118837442831286.61617.919.518.4134.4
141Curtis Martin1996NWE316115214463333273.51617.098.788.32133.1
142Barry Sanders1995DET314150011483981286.41617.99.598.3132.9
143Neal Anderson1990CHI260107810424843255.21517.018.218.8132
144Dorsey Levens1999GNB27910349715731256.21418.38.889.42131.9
145Curtis Martin2004NYJ371169712412452298.71618.6710.468.21131.3
146Eric Dickerson1986RAM404182111262050286.41617.99.78.2131.2
147Ray Rice2009BAL25413397787021291.11618.19108.19131.1
148Joe Morris1985NYG294133621222120291.81618.2410.078.17130.7
149Frank Gore2006SFO31216958614851302.51618.9110.758.16130.5
150DeAngelo Williams2008CAR273151518221212294.61618.4110.268.15130.4
151Dorsey Levens1997GNB329143575337052791617.449.298.14130.3
152Curtis Martin2001NYJ333151310533200274.71617.179.038.14130.2
153Jim Taylor1961GNB243130715251751256.71418.3410.28.14130.2
154Jim Brown1964CLE28014467363402255.31418.2310.118.13130
155Joe Morris1986NYG341151614212331275.41518.369.78.66129.9
156Lydell Mitchell1976BAL28912005605553253.51418.1110.018.1129.6
157Tom Matte1969BAL235909114351322441417.439.358.08129.3
158Darren McFadden2010OAK22311577475073249.91319.229.389.85128
159Emmitt Smith1996DAL327120412472493258.81517.258.788.48127.2
160Wilbert Montgomery1981PHI28614028495212276.81518.459.998.47127
161Ottis Anderson1984STL28911746706112261.51517.439.018.42126.4
162Curtis Martin1995NWE368148714302611279.81617.499.597.89126.3
163Marshall Faulk1994IND314128211525221278.41617.49.517.89126.2
164Maurice Jones-Drew2011JAX34316068433743285.51617.849.987.86125.8
165Wendell Tyler1981RAM260107412454365275.51518.379.998.38125.7
166Curt Warner1986SEA319148113413420280.81617.559.77.85125.6
167Marshawn Lynch2012SEA315159011231961262.11616.388.547.84125.4
168Edgerrin James2003IND310125911512920246.61318.979.339.64125.3
169Peyton Hillis2010CLE270117711614772274.61617.169.387.78124.6
170Travis Henry2002BUF325143813433091280.21617.519.737.78124.5
171Herschel Walker1986DAL15173712768372279.41617.469.77.76124.2
172Priest Holmes2004KAN19689214191871207.4825.9310.4615.46123.7
173John Riggins1983WAS3751347245290284.11518.9410.788.16122.4
174Dan Reeves1966DAL1757578415578250.31417.8810.297.59121.4
175Chris Warren1994SEA33315459413232273.31617.089.517.57121.1
176MacArthur Lane1970STL20697711323652228.21416.38.747.56121
177LaMont Jordan2005OAK27210259705632259.81418.569.978.59120.2
178Ricky Watters1995PHI337127311624341273.71617.119.597.51120.2
179LeSean McCoy2010PHI20710807785922260.21517.359.387.97119.6
180Walter Payton1983CHI31414216536072292.11618.2510.787.47119.6
181Eddie Lacy2014GNB24611399424274255.61615.988.517.47119.5
182Chris Warren1995SEA310134615352471272.81617.059.597.46119.3
183Adrian Peterson2010MIN283129812363411259.91517.339.387.95119.3
184John David Crow1960STL18310716254623239.21219.9312.517.42118.7
185Fred Taylor2000JAX292139912362402265.91320.4511.349.11118.4
186Charley Taylor1964WAS1997555538145245.11417.5110.117.4118.4
187Adrian Peterson2007MIN238134112192681248.41417.749.298.46118.4
188Ricky Watters1992SFO20610139434052229.31416.387.988.4117.7
189Chuck Muncie1982SDG1385698252071156.3917.3610.017.35117.6
190Gale Sayers1966CHI22912318344472246.71417.6210.297.33117.3
191Floyd Little1973DEN25697912414231238.71417.059.737.32117.1
192Frank Gore2009SFO229112010524063256.61418.33108.33116.6
193Larry Brown1973WAS2738608404826238.21417.019.737.29116.6
194Ray Rice2012BAL25711439614781252.61615.798.547.24115.9
195Alfred Morris2012WAS33516131311770252.51615.788.547.24115.8
196O.J. Simpson1976BUF29015038222591241.21417.2310.017.22115.5
197Knowshon Moreno2013DEN241103810605483266.61616.669.447.22115.5
198Emmitt Smith1998DAL319133213271752254.21615.898.677.22115.5
199Herschel Walker1988DAL36115145535052270.41616.99.687.22115.5
200Edgerrin James2004IND33415489514830282.61617.6610.467.2115.2

Tomlinson and Marshall Faulk dominate the single-season list, so you won’t be surprised to see them take the top two spots on the career list. Below are the top 125 running backs in fantasy history:

RkPlayerFirst YrLast YrVBD
1LaDainian Tomlinson200120111521
2Marshall Faulk199420051509
3Emmitt Smith199020041444
4Walter Payton197519871372
5Barry Sanders198919981311
6Jim Brown195719651265
7Marcus Allen198219971073
8Curtis Martin19952005990
9Eric Dickerson19831993970
10Thurman Thomas19882000962
11Edgerrin James19992009951
12Ricky Watters19922001949
13Priest Holmes19972007917
14Adrian Peterson20072014847
15Shaun Alexander20002008823
16Tiki Barber19972006813
17Tony Dorsett19771988775
18Chuck Foreman19731980768
19O.J. Simpson19691979760
20Herschel Walker19861997725
21Clinton Portis20022010705
22Ahman Green19982009700
23Steven Jackson20042014698
24Matt Forte20082014697
25Arian Foster20092014683
26Roger Craig19831993680
27Ottis Anderson19791992663
28Terrell Davis19952001661
29Brian Westbrook20022010645
30Frank Gore20052014635
31Franco Harris19721984634
32Leroy Kelly19641973634
33Maurice Jones-Drew20062014620
34Ricky Williams19992011614
35Fred Taylor19982010605
36Marshawn Lynch20072014591
37Eddie George19962004588
38Lydell Mitchell19721980581
39Neal Anderson19861993579
40Jamaal Charles20082014579
41Chris Johnson20082014569
42Wilbert Montgomery19771985568
43LeSean McCoy20092014563
44William Andrews19791986551
45Corey Dillon19972006549
46Jim Taylor19581967544
47Billy Sims19801984540
48Ray Rice20082013531
49Earl Campbell19781985517
50John Riggins19711985507
51Larry Brown19691976501
52Terry Allen19912001490
53Larry Johnson20032011484
54Wendell Tyler19771986476
55Earnest Byner19841997467
56James Brooks19811992453
57James Wilder19811990452
58Chuck Muncie19761984452
59Clem Daniels19601968451
60Lenny Moore19561967451
61Jerome Bettis19932005449
62Jamal Lewis20002009442
63Curt Warner19831990423
64Warrick Dunn19972008417
65Frank Gifford19521964417
66Abner Haynes19601967414
67Freeman McNeil19811992413
68Deuce McAllister20012008412
69Stephen Davis19962006407
70Charlie Garner19942004398
71Lawrence McCutcheon19721981395
72Ron Johnson19691975393
73Gale Sayers19651971390
74Floyd Little19671975385
75Gerald Riggs19821991370
76Calvin Hill19691981364
77Chris Warren19902000360
78Jamal Anderson19942001352
79Greg Bell19841990350
80Joe Cribbs19801988348
81DeMarco Murray20112014348
82Rodney Hampton19901997348
83Bill Brown19611974336
84Pete Johnson19771984332
85Garrison Hearst19932004332
86Michael Turner20042012329
87Ted Brown19791986328
88Thomas Jones20002011326
89Timmy Brown19591968314
90Robert Smith19932000313
91John Williams19861995303
92Greg Pruitt19731984302
93Mike Pruitt19761986300
94Duce Staley19972006299
95Dorsey Levens19942004296
96Domanick Williams20032005295
97Tom Matte19611972284
98Dalton Hilliard19861993278
99Mike Garrett19661973278
100James Stewart19952002277
101Barry Foster19901994277
102Joe Morris19821991277
103Kevin Mack19851993276
104Le'Veon Bell20132014267
105John David Crow19581968259
106Terry Metcalf19731981258
107Ken Willard19651974255
108Sam Cunningham19731982255
109Joseph Addai20062011253
110Rudi Johnson20012008253
111Travis Henry20012007253
112Ahmad Bradshaw20072014252
113George Rogers19811987249
114Otis Armstrong19731980244
115Cookie Gilchrist19621967244
116Reggie Bush20062014240
117Hugh McElhenny19521964237
118Joe Perry19481963235
119Dan Reeves19651972235
120Lorenzo White19881995234
121Mel Farr19671973233
122Fred Jackson20072014231
123Keith Byars19861998228
124Knowshon Moreno20092014226
125Willis McGahee20042013224
  • Not a lot of surprises here. Although there is a certain Hall of Fame running back from Pittsburgh that fares very poorly here.
  • Adrian Peterson needs two more good years to really climb these lists.  Can he do that?
  • Edgerrin James (RB11) is the highest-ranking running back not in the Hall of Fame (well, other than Tomlinson).  Does this help his cause?  In fact, the five running backs from 11 to 16 (excluding Peterson) all are borderline HOF candidates, and all were active in ’00 and ’01.
  • What stands out to you in the career rankings list?

References

References
1 Baselines used in this series: From 1968 to 2014, RB24. In ’66 and ’67, RB20, and from ’61 to ’65, RB16. In the 1960 AFL, the baseline is RB6, while it is RB8 in the NFL. From 1950 to 1959, the baseline used is RB8.
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