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The GOAT

The GOAT

On Wednesday, we looked at the most dominant quarterbacks in fantasy history. Yesterday, we did the same for running backs. Today, we look at wide receivers, using the methodology described over the two previous days.

I am using the following scoring system throughout this series: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, 0.5 points per reception.

There are four seasons that have topped 200 points of VBD in wide receiver history: Elroy Hirsch, 1951; Wes Chandler, 1982; and Jerry Rice, 1987 and 1995. In ’95, Rice set the still-standing record with 351.5 fantasy points, courtesy of 122 catches, 1,848 receiving yards, and 15 touchdowns (he also rushed for 36 yards and a touchdown). Rice averaged 21.97 FP/G that year, while the baseline of WR32 was 9.15 FP/G. Therefore, Rice was 12.82 FP/G above the baseline for 16 games, which comes out to 205.1 points of VBD.

Now, in ’87, Rice scored 23 touchdowns, gained over 1,100 yards, and caught 65 passes in the strike-shortened season. By my methodology, Rice is still disadvantaged, so let’s break it down. He gets credit for producing an incredible 23.62 FP/G over his 12 games, which is far above the baseline WR32 of 7.01. So Rice was 16.6 FP/G above the baseline for 12 games, which comes out to 199.2 fantasy points. But because the season was 15 games long, that only gets prorated by 16/15, not 16/12, which gives him “only” 212.5 points of VBD that year; the alternative would be to pro-rate by 16/12, which would give him 265.6 points of VBD. Frankly, I think the latter is the preferred method now that I’m writing this summary, but I went with the former because that seemed more appropriate at the time; of course, feel free to treat Rice’s ’87 season however you please.

What about Chandler’s ’82 season? The strike that year didn’t involve replacement players, so everyone had a 9-game schedule. Chandler gets pro-rated for that, but not for missing one game. He caught 49 passes for 1,032 yards (and rushed for 32 yards) and 9 touchdowns in just 8 games that year, giving him a 23.11 FP/G average. The baseline (WR32) was 6.98, so Chandler was 16.13 FP/G above average. We multiply that number by 8, the number of games he played, and multiply that by 16/9 to get his VBD score of 229.5.

And then there’s Crazy Legs Hirsch. The baseline I used was 12 for the 12-team NFL, matching the 32 we use now. [1]I used WR32 as my baseline for every year from ’68 to ’14; that dropped to WR26 in ’66 and ’67, 22 from ’61 to ’65, WR12 for the NFL in 1960, WR8 for the AFL in … Continue reading Hirsch caught 66 passes for 1,495 yards and 17 touchdowns in a 12-game season, mind-boggling numbers for today, much less 1951. He scored 285 fantasy points, averaging 23.73 FP/G, even more than Rice in ’87. The baseline was 7.37 FP/G that year, so Hirsch gets credit for being 16.37 FP/G above the baseline. He gets the full pro-ration adjustment, giving him 261.9 points of VBD, the most ever (unless you want to give that spot to Rice ’87).

The table below shows the top 200 seasons by a wide receiver in fantasy history (or, at least, since 1950):

RkPlayerYrTmRushYdTDRecYdTDFPGFP/GBaseDiffVBD
1Elroy Hirsch1951RAM3066149517284.81223.737.3716.37261.9
2Wes Chandler1982SDG3204910329184.9823.116.9816.13229.5
3Jerry Rice1987SFO51165107822283.41223.627.0116.6212.5
4Jerry Rice1995SFO361122184815351.51621.979.1512.82205.1
5Randy Moss2003MIN180111163217322.51620.168.1512.01192.1
6Randy Moss2007NWE0098149323336.31621.029.1211.9190.4
7Charley Taylor1966WAS262372111912264.11418.867.1511.71187.4
8Lance Alworth1965SDG-12069160214277.51419.828.1411.69187
9Jerry Rice1986SFO7218615701530416197.4311.58185.2
10Billy Howton1952GNB0053123113227.61218.977.4811.49183.9
11Lance Alworth1966SDG10073138313253.81319.527.1512.37183.8
12Lenny Moore1960BAL3744459369231.51219.298.1911.1177.6
13Jerry Rice1994SFO932112149913305.21619.088.1110.97175.5
14Jerry Rice1993SFO69198150315302.21618.89810.89174.2
15Mark Clayton1984MIA35073138918285.91519.067.4811.59173.8
16Calvin Johnson2011DET11096168116313.21619.588.8510.73171.6
17Raymond Berry1960BAL0074129810226.81218.98.1910.71171.3
18Isaac Bruce1995STL170119178113317.31619.839.1510.68170.9
19Billy Howton1956GNB0055118812218.31218.197.5510.64170.3
20Torry Holt2003STL50117169612300.61618.798.1510.64170.2
21Antonio Brown2014PIT130129169813318.61619.919.3810.53168.6
22Herman Moore1995DET00123168614314.11619.639.1510.48167.7
23Charley Hennigan1961HOU0082174612287.61420.5410.0810.46167.4
24Jerry Rice1989SFO33082148317294.61618.418.210.21163.4
25Sterling Sharpe1992GNB80108146113278.91617.437.2210.21163.4
26Marvin Harrison2002IND100143172211310.71619.429.2910.13162.1
27Dick Gordon1970CHI17071102613217.81415.565.5110.05160.8
28Cliff Branch1974OAK0060109213217.21415.515.579.94159.1
29Dwight Clark1982SFO00609135151.3916.816.989.83157.3
30Gene Washington1970SFO0053110012208.51316.045.5110.53156.5
31Raymond Berry1959BAL006695914212.91217.748.059.69155.1
32Terrell Owens2000SFO11097145113272.71419.488.4711.01154.1
33Lance Alworth1964SDG60261123513249.51220.799.5611.23154
34Cris Carter1995MIN00122137117300.11618.769.159.61153.7
35Harlon Hill1956CHI24047112811204.71217.067.559.51152.1
36Bob Hayes1966DAL-1064123213233.11416.657.159.5152
37Cloyce Box1952DET004292415203.41216.957.489.48151.6
38Dave Parks1965SFO0080134412246.41417.68.149.46151.4
39Harold Carmichael1973PHI4206711169203.31414.525.099.44151
40Warren Wells1969OAK24047126014235.91416.857.419.44151
41Don Maynard1967NYJ18071143410240.71417.197.769.43150.9
42Lance Alworth1968SDG180681312102271416.216.869.35149.6
43Sonny Randle1960STL006289315210.31217.538.199.33149.3
44Steve Smith2005CAR251103156312288.31618.028.789.24147.9
45Mike Quick1983PHI0069140913253.41615.846.639.21147.4
46Don Maynard1968NYJ0057129710218.21316.786.869.92147.4
47Lionel Taylor1960DEN-6092123512240.91220.089.4210.65146.1
48Roy Green1984STL-10078155512265.51616.597.489.12145.9
49Bill Groman1960HOU0072147312259.51418.539.429.11145.8
50Jerry Rice1990SFO00100150213278.21617.398.299.1145.6
51Homer Jones1967NYG60149120913235.41416.817.769.05144.8
52Roy Green1983STL49078122714250.61615.666.639.04144.6
53Don Maynard1965NYJ20681218142401417.148.149.01144.1
54Marvin Harrison2001IND30109152415297.21618.589.589144
55Calvin Johnson2012DET0012219645287.41617.968.988.98143.8
56Josh Gordon2013CLE8808716469270.91419.359.1310.23143.2
57Terrell Owens2002SFO791100130013271.91419.429.2910.13141.9
58Marvin Harrison1999IND40115166312296.21618.519.78.81141
59Marvin Harrison2000IND00102141314276.31617.278.478.8140.8
60Odell Beckham2014NYG35091130512251.51220.969.3811.58139
61Muhsin Muhammad2004CAR15093140516284.51617.789.118.68138.8
62Sterling Sharpe1994GNB15094111918268.41616.788.118.67138.7
63Art Powell1963OAK0073130416262.91418.7810.118.66138.6
64Rod Smith2000DEN99110016028274.11617.138.478.66138.6
65Alfred Jenkins1981ATL0070135813248.81615.556.938.62137.9
66Cliff Branch1976OAK12046111112207.31414.816.238.58137.3
67Lenny Moore1961BAL6487497288251.11319.3210.089.24137.2
68Randy Moss2000MIN5077143715272.71617.048.478.58137.2
69Warren Wells1968OAK381531137112161415.436.868.56137
70Charley Hennigan1964HOU0010115468253.11418.089.568.52136.3
71Calvin Johnson2013DET0084149212263.21418.89.139.68135.5
72Gary Garrison1970SDG7044100612195.31413.955.518.44135.1
73Tom Fears1950RAM008411167195.61216.37.868.44135.1
74Robert Brooks1995GNB210102149713280.81617.559.158.4134.4
75Paul Warfield1971MIA11504399611198.61414.195.858.34133.4
76Demaryius Thomas2014DEN00111161911283.41617.719.388.33133.4
77Wes Welker2011NWE30012215699274.91617.188.858.33133.3
78Terrell Owens2001SFO21093141216285.81617.869.588.29132.6
79John Jefferson1980SDG16082134013254.61615.917.648.28132.4
80Stanley Morgan1986NWE0084149110251.11615.697.438.27132.3
81Brandon Marshall2012CHI-20118150811275.61617.238.988.25132
82Hugh Taylor1952WAS004196112188.61215.727.488.24131.9
83Bob Shaw1950CRD004897112193.11216.097.868.23131.7
84Sterling Sharpe1989GNB25090142312261.81616.368.28.16130.6
85Cloyce Box1950DET0050100911191.91215.997.868.13130.1
86Terrell Owens2007DAL5081135515266.51517.779.128.65129.7
87Harold Jackson1973RAM-804087413184.61413.195.098.1129.6
88Charley Frazier1966HOU0057112912213.41415.247.158.09129.5
89Michael Irvin1995DAL00111160310275.81617.249.158.09129.4
90Antonio Freeman1998GNB5084142414268.91517.939.38.63129.4
91Andre Rison1993ATL0086124215257.21616.0888.08129.2
92Carl Pickens1995CIN6099123417275.51617.229.158.07129.1
93Jordy Nelson2014GNB0098151913278.91617.439.388.05128.9
94Bobby Mitchell1962WAS5072138411240.91417.219.198.01128.2
95Roy Jefferson1968PIT57058107411208.11414.866.868128
96Roger Carr1976BAL0043111211198.71414.196.237.96127.4
97Demaryius Thomas2013DEN00921430142731617.069.137.94127
98Hines Ward2002PIT1420112132912275.11617.199.297.91126.5
99Terance Mathis1994ATL00111134211255.71615.988.117.88126
100John Stallworth1984PIT0080139511245.51615.347.487.87125.9
101Bill Groman1961HOU2150117517250.71417.9110.087.83125.3
102Charlie Brown1982WAS00326908133914.786.987.8124.8
103Otis Taylor1966KAN33058129782091414.937.157.78124.5
104Gene Washington1972SFO004691812186.81413.345.597.75124
105Nat Moore1977MIA8915276512189.41413.535.797.74123.8
106Otis Taylor1971KAN25157111071901413.575.857.72123.5
107Paul Warfield1968CLE0050106712203.71414.556.867.69123
108Harlon Hill1954CHI0045112412206.91217.249.577.68122.8
109Andre Johnson2009HOU10010115699262.41616.48.737.67122.7
110Warren Wells1970OAK3404393511184.41413.175.517.66122.6
111Ben Hawkins1967PHI00591265102161415.437.767.66122.6
112Larry Fitzgerald2008ARI0096143112263.11616.448.787.66122.6
113Andre Johnson2008HOU00115157582631616.448.787.66122.5
114Sterling Sharpe1993GNB80112127411250.31615.6487.64122.3
115Steve Watson1981DEN60601244132331614.566.937.63122.1
116Dez Bryant2014DAL008813201627216179.387.62122
117Art Powell1964OAK0076136111240.11417.159.567.59121.5
118Marlin Briscoe1970BUF190571036818214135.517.49119.9
119Carlos Carson1983KAN2008013517225.51614.096.637.47119.5
120Randy Moss1998MIN4069131317268.21616.769.37.46119.4
121Braylon Edwards2007CLE0080128916264.91616.569.127.44119
122Bob Hayes1970DAL3413488910175.31313.485.517.98118.5
123Jerry Rice1992SFO58184120110233.91614.627.227.4118.4
124James Lofton1982GNB1011356964129.4914.376.987.39118.3
125Michael Irvin1991DAL009315238246.81615.438.037.39118.3
126John Jefferson1978SDG7056100113206.81414.776.348.43118.1
127Art Powell1960NYT0069116714235.21416.89.427.38118.1
128Henry Ellard1988RAM7086141410245.11615.327.987.34117.5
129Reggie Wayne2007IND40104151010263.41616.469.127.34117.5
130Pete Pihos1953PHI0063104910196.41216.379.037.33117.3
131Rob Moore1997ARI009715848254.91615.938.647.29116.6
132Jerry Rice1991SFO2080120614244.81615.38.037.27116.3
133Andre Rison1992ATL0093111911224.41514.967.227.74116.1
134John Gilliam1973MIN711429078172.81412.345.097.26116.1
135Larry Fitzgerald2005ARI410103140910256.51616.038.787.26116.1
136Frank Clarke1962DAL0047104314211.81217.659.198.46116
137Rod Smith2001DEN270113134311259.51517.39.587.73115.9
138Anquan Boldin2008ARI670891038112211218.428.789.64115.6
140Torry Holt2005STL2010213319238.31417.028.788.25115.5
141Charlie Brown1983WAS5307812258214.81514.326.637.7115.4
142Brett Perriman1995DET48010814889261.61616.359.157.2115.2
143Anquan Boldin2005ARI45010214027237.71416.988.788.2114.9
144Gary Garrison1968SDG0052110310196.31414.026.867.16114.5
145Terrell Owens2004PHI-50771200142421417.299.118.18114.5
146Art Monk1984WAS180106137272341614.637.487.15114.4
147Larry Fitzgerald2007ARI00100140910250.91516.739.127.61114.1
148Steve Largent1981SEA4717512249224.61614.046.937.11113.7
149Mark Clayton1988MIA4086112914240.31615.027.987.04112.7
150Gary Collins1966CLE3805694612198.41414.177.157.02112.3
151Marvin Harrison2003IND3094127210234.51515.638.157.48112.3
152Dez Bryant2012DAL-5092138212255.71615.988.987112.1
153Marvin Harrison2006IND0095136612256.11616.019.017112
154A.J. Green2013CIN0098142611257.61616.19.136.98111.6
155Mark Duper1986MIA-10067131311229.81614.367.436.94111
156Steve Largent1983SEA007210741121015146.637.37110.6
157Isaac Bruce2000STL1108714719245.71615.368.476.89110.2
158Chad Johnson2003CIN0090135510240.51615.038.156.88110.1
159Roy Jefferson1969PIT46067107992001414.297.416.87109.9
160Lance Alworth1967SDG505210109181.51116.57.768.74109.8
161A.J. Green2012CIN38097135011253.31615.838.986.85109.7
162Fred Biletnikoff1971OAK00619299177.41412.675.856.82109.1
163Javon Walker2004GNB0089138212254.71615.929.116.81109
164Harold Jackson1969PHI1006511169199.11414.227.416.81108.9
165Anquan Boldin2003ARI40010113778239.21614.958.156.8108.8
166Jordy Nelson2011GNB0068126315250.31615.648.856.79108.7
167Chad Johnson2005CIN33097143292491615.568.786.79108.6
168Art Powell1966OAK0053102611195.11413.947.156.79108.6
169Charley Taylor1967WAS007099091881215.677.767.9108.4
170Bob Hayes1965DAL-8146100312200.51315.428.147.29108.3
171Roddy White2010ATL30115138910256.71616.049.286.76108.2
172Mel Gray1975STL604892611183.21413.096.336.76108.1
173Bobby Mitchell1966WAS1411589059194.71413.97.156.75108.1
174Antonio Brown2013PIT4011014998254.11615.889.136.75108.1
175Mark Carrier1989TAM008614229239.21614.958.26.75108
176Henry Ellard1989RAM1007013828222.21415.878.27.67107.4
177Victor Cruz2011NYG308215369248.91615.568.856.71107.3
178Joe Horn2004NOR0094139911252.91615.819.116.7107.2
179David Boston2001ARI3509815988260.31616.279.586.69107.1
180Derrick Alexander2000KAN45078139110242.61615.168.476.69107.1
181Elbie Nickel1952PIT00558849169.91214.167.486.68106.9
182Steve Largent1984SEA10074116412226.41614.157.486.68106.8
183Demaryius Thomas2012DEN0094143410250.41615.658.986.67106.8
184Julio Jones2014ATL1010415936247.41516.499.387.12106.7
185J.T. Smith1987STL009111178205.21513.687.016.67106.7
186Bud Grant1952PHI00569977169.71214.147.486.67106.7
187Randy Moss2009NWE0083126413245.91615.378.736.64106.2
188Johnny Morris1964CHI0093120010226.51416.189.566.62105.9
189Del Shofner1962NYG4053113312212.21316.329.197.13105.9
190Tommy McDonald1960PHI003980113177.61214.88.196.61105.7
191Torry Holt2000STL708216356241.21615.088.476.61105.7
192Brandon Marshall2013CHI00100129512251.51615.729.136.59105.5
193Jerry Rice1988SFO107164130692331614.567.986.59105.4
194Ken Burrough1975HOU005310638180.81412.916.336.59105.4
195John Gilliam1972MIN1404710357170.41412.175.596.58105.3
196Pat Studstill1966DET2006712665192.11413.727.156.57105.1
197James Lofton1983GNB3605813008210.61613.166.636.54104.6
198Otis Taylor1967KAN2915995811200.21414.37.766.54104.6
199Michael Irvin1992DAL-907813967219.71613.737.226.51104.2
200Andre Reed1994BUF8709013038233.61614.68.116.49103.9

Now, the career grades, where Rice makes a mockery of a ranking system. The difference between Rice and WR2 is as large as the difference between WR2 and WR65.

RkPlayerFirst YrLast YrVBD
1Jerry Rice198520041923
2Terrell Owens199620101180
3Randy Moss199820121175
4Marvin Harrison199620081087
5Lance Alworth19621972983
6Steve Largent19761989981
7Cris Carter19872002860
8Charley Taylor19641977805
9Don Maynard19581973777
10James Lofton19781993774
11Calvin Johnson20072014757
12Torry Holt19992009751
13Andre Johnson20032014746
14Tim Brown19882004712
15Isaac Bruce19942009706
16Bob Hayes19651975699
17Larry Fitzgerald20042014692
18Reggie Wayne20012014686
19Harold Jackson19681983678
20Paul Warfield19641977673
21Art Powell19591968673
22Steve Smith20012014662
23Fred Biletnikoff19651978654
24Michael Irvin19881999642
25Harold Carmichael19711984640
26Mark Clayton19831993637
27Sterling Sharpe19881994630
28Anquan Boldin20032014621
29Brandon Marshall20062014620
30Andre Reed19852000614
31Jimmy Smith19922005606
32Cliff Branch19721985601
33Raymond Berry19551967601
34Wes Chandler19781988592
35Gary Clark19851995585
36Chad Johnson20012011585
37Rod Smith19952006585
38Art Monk19801995584
39Herman Moore19912002571
40Otis Taylor19651975568
41Gary Garrison19661977561
42Tommy McDonald19571968548
43John Gilliam19671977547
44Andre Rison19892000543
45Charlie Joiner19691986542
46Roddy White20052014538
47Gene Washington19691979536
48Hines Ward19982011535
49Wes Welker20042014532
50Roy Green19791992517
51John Stallworth19741987515
52Bobby Mitchell19581968510
53Henry Ellard19831998508
54Wesley Walker19771989508
55Mike Quick19821990504
56Stanley Morgan19771990490
57Marques Colston20062014464
58Billy Howton19521963464
59Elroy Hirsch19461957449
60Roy Jefferson19651976448
61Tony Hill19771986447
62Del Shofner19571967447
63Drew Hill19791993443
64Mark Duper19821992439
65Lionel Taylor19591968437
66Joe Horn19962007436
67Charley Hennigan19601966434
68Billy Wilson19511960425
69Derrick Mason19972011425
70Dwight Clark19791987421
71John Jefferson19781985411
72Warren Wells19641970411
73Cris Collinsworth19811988407
74Irving Fryar19842000406
75Anthony Miller19881997405
76Joey Galloway19952010402
77Drew Pearson19731983401
78Sammy White19761985399
79Mel Gray19711982387
80Harlon Hill19541962386
81Dez Bryant20102014385
82Danny Abramowicz19671974378
83Carl Pickens19922000376
84Sonny Randle19591968373
85Antonio Freeman19952003372
86Ken Burrough19701981368
87Demaryius Thomas20102014367
88Keyshawn Johnson19962006361
89Ernest Givins19861995359
90Lance Rentzel19651974351
91Donald Driver19992012351
92Greg Jennings20062014348
93Jordy Nelson20082014347
94Lynn Swann19741982345
95Nat Moore19741986342
96Eric Moulds19962007342
97Isaac Curtis19731984338
98Ahmad Rashad19721982336
99Anthony Carter19851995335
100Homer Jones19641970332
101Keenan McCardell19922007332
102Steve Watson19791987331
103Muhsin Muhammad19962009329
104Alfred Jenkins19751983329
105A.J. Green20112014327
106Antonio Brown20102014323
107Vincent Jackson20052014322
108George Sauer19651970319
109Pete Pihos19471955316
110Lenny Moore19561967315
111Reggie Rucker19701981312
112Santana Moss20012014308
113Gary Collins19621971304
114Terance Mathis19902002303
115Carlos Carson19801989303
116T.J. Houshmandzadeh20012011302
117DeSean Jackson20082014298
118Al Toon19851992297
119Bob Chandler19711982296
120Darrell Jackson20002008295
121J.T. Smith19781990294
122Jimmy Orr19581970294
123Julio Jones20112014292
124Plaxico Burress20002013287
125Buddy Dial19591966287
126Cloyce Box19491954282
127Hugh Taylor19471954275
128Terry Glenn19962007271
129Bill Groman19601965271
130Charlie Brown19821987269
131Rob Moore19901999267
132Eric Martin19851994265
133Eddie Brown19851991259
134Louis Lipps19841992257
135Ben Hawkins19661974256
136Freddie Solomon19751985256
137Tony Martin19902001251
138Frank Lewis19711983250
139Haywood Jeffires19871996249
140Al Denson19641971246
141Derrick Alexander19942002246
142Laveranues Coles20002009243
143Pat Tilley19761986241
144Amani Toomer19962008240
145Curtis Conway19932004235
146Dave Parks19641973231
147Jake Reed19912002227
148Dwayne Bowe20072014227
149Tom Fears19481956222
150Haven Moses19681981220
  • Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, and Marvin Harrison were the best three fantasy wide receivers for decade, and they take spots 2 through 4 on this list. In 2000, all three were in the top 4 in VBD; in 2002, all three were in the top 5, and in eight of the ten years from ’98 to ’07, at least two were in the top 5 in VBD (the only exceptions being 2004 and 2005).
  • The top two wideouts of the AFL, Lance Alworth and Don Maynard, take their spots in the top ten here. And rightfully so.
  • To younger fans who don’t quite understand what the big deal was about Steve Largent, his 6th-place ranking here is all the information you need.
  • Doug Drinen’s boy Billy Howton has the #10 and #19 seasons of all-time, but he ranks just 58th overall here. Since I know you were wondering, Doug.

What stands out to you?

References

References
1 I used WR32 as my baseline for every year from ’68 to ’14; that dropped to WR26 in ’66 and ’67, 22 from ’61 to ’65, WR12 for the NFL in 1960, WR8 for the AFL in 1960, and WR12 for each season in the fifties.
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