This week at the New York Times, I examine the disappointing San Francisco 49ers.
From the moment Coach Jim Harbaugh arrived in San Francisco in 2011, the 49ers have been one of the N.F.L.’s best teams.
In Harbaugh’s first two seasons, the 49ers ranked third in combined wins (24) and points differential (275), trailing only the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers in both categories. In those two seasons, San Francisco allowed 502 points, easily the fewest in the league. Even after losing in the Super Bowl in February, Harbaugh’s 49ers seemed poised to become the next dynasty. But after defeating the Packers in Week 1, San Francisco has been outscored, 56-10, in the last two weeks.
In Seattle, the 49ers were 3-point underdogs, and lost, 29-3. At home against the Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco was a 10 ½-point favorite, and lost by 20 points. For the season, San Francisco has fallen short of expectations — defined as the point spread in the game — by an average of 17.5 points a game (only the Giants, at 18.3 points, have been more disappointing). How have teams with similar expectations and results fared over the course of the rest of the season?
From 1990 to 2012, 14 teams have met three criteria: won at least 10 games in the previous year; on average, were favored to win the first three games of the next season; and failed to cover the spread by, on average, at least 10 points. On average, those teams won 12.5 games the previous season but just eight in the season in question, an indication that the slow start is a sign of mediocre things to come.
Team Year PF PA Spread Difference N-1 Record Year N Rec NOR 2007 12.7 34.3 -1 -22.7 10-6-0 7-9-0 SFO 2013 14.7 28 -4.2 -17.5 11-4-1 -- DEN 1999 13.7 25.7 -2.3 -14.3 14-2-0 6-10-0 STL 2002 17 25 -5.5 -13.5 14-2-0 7-9-0 NOR 2012 27.7 34 -6.8 -13.2 13-3-0 7-9-0 PIT 2002 15.7 24.3 -4.2 -12.8 13-3-0 10-5-1 NWE 2008 16.3 19.3 -9.2 -12.2 16-0-0 11-5-0 CHI 1992 15.7 26.3 -1.5 -12.2 11-5-0 5-11-0 KAN 2004 20.7 28.7 -3.8 -11.8 13-3-0 7-9-0 TEN 2001 12 23.3 -0.3 -11.7 13-3-0 7-9-0 WAS 2000 17 19.7 -8.8 -11.5 10-6-0 8-8-0 CHI 2007 11 19.3 -3 -11.3 13-3-0 7-9-0 PHI 2003 11 20.3 -1.3 -10.7 12-4-0 12-4-0 ARI 2010 16 25.7 -0.5 -10.2 10-6-0 5-11-0 IND 2008 17.3 22.3 -5 -10 13-3-0 12-4-0 The 2001 St. Louis Rams and the 2006 Chicago Bears lost in the Super Bowl, then both finished 7-9 the next season. The 2006 New Orleans Saints made it to the N.F.C. championship game, then started 2007 with four losses, and finished 7-9. Three games is a small sample size for the 49ers, but last year’s success guarantees nothing but high expectations. And only one of those 14 teams — the 2007 Saints — fell as far short of expectations (as measured by points differential relative to the point spread) as this year’s 49ers.
There might be more hope for a turnaround if San Francisco’s struggles were contained: unfortunately for 49ers fans, the team has struggled in every aspect of the game. The biggest surprise has been the fall of a dominant rush defense.
Two years ago, the 49ers did not allow a rushing touchdown until the 15th game of the season; last year, three of the team’s four linebackers (Aldon Smith, NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis) were named first-team All-Pro by The Associated Press, as the run defense finished in the top five in rushing yards, yards per carry and touchdowns allowed.
This season, the 49ers have allowed six rushing touchdowns. The struggles are not just at the goal line: Harbaugh’s 49ers allowed 170 rushing yards just once in his first 38 games (including the postseason). But they have allowed more than that in back-to-back weeks this season against the Seattle Seahawks and the Colts.
You can read the entire article here.