I’m entering a Survivor Pool this year, so I plan on posting about my picks for exactly as long as I stay alive. Given the uncertainty involved in projecting an NFL season, I don’t think the payoff is there to project every week in the preseason and produce a model telling you which team to will use in each week. By week 5, a lot of our assumptions will have changed, injuries will make some teams an easy one-week play, and so. Flexibility is just as important as foresight, and there’s a lot of uncertainty about the future.

As a result, rather than getting too technical, I am simply going to place an early focus on trying to stay alive, with some emphasis on saving good teams for later. And to always look one week ahead.

Those two masters are in conflict right away, as one of the league’s most dependable teams is also the clear best choice in survivor leagues for week 1. Take a look at the current spreads:

Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks (-10.5)
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals (-6)
Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans (-6)
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+4½)
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4)
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts (-4)
Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos (+3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins (+3)
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (+2½)
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (+1)
Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints (pk)
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (pk)
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans (pk½)

Seattle is at home, where the Seahawks have gone 27-5 over the last four seasons. But the Seahawks also host the 49ers in week 3 (-14), the Falcons in week 6 (-10), the Bills in week 9 (-10), and the Eagles in week 11 (-9). Ideally, you want to save Seattle when you have fewer teams to choose from, and the Philadelphia matchup looms as a very good option in the second half of the season. That would be a nice arrow to have in your quiver when other players are scrambling.

I think that leaves us with three choices, unless you want to go down the list to the teams that are less than 5-point favorites. Cleveland/Philadelphia seems like a solid matchup, although the RG3/Terrelle Pryor success so far in preseason has me a little concerned when it comes to picking against the Browns.  But if ever there was a week to pick the Eagles, this is it. Update: Since Sam Bradford was traded to Minnesota, leaving Chase Daniel as the team’s starter, the line has dropped from Philadelphia -6 to Philadelphia -4.

The Chiefs have won four straight against the Chargers, and this seems to be a pretty strong mismatch. Yes, Justin Houston is not going to play in week 1, and Eric Berry just reported to camp this week; those are the main reasons to consider waiting to use Kansas City for later in the year. The Chiefs host the Saints in late October, the Jaguars in early November, the Bucs in late November, and the Titans in week 15.  So there should be other times to pick KC, even though this may be one of the best.

On paper, Arizona is a strong favorite over a Patriots team that won’t have Tom Brady. And Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire during the preseason (Garoppolo’s average completion has come just 5.06 yards down the field, 19th out of 22 qualifying passers so far, though his 6.22 average YAC gain is the most). On the other hand, after an ugly postseason, Carson Palmer has 3 interceptions in 22 preseason pass attempts. I’m not sure I’m willing to risk my season by betting against Bill Belichick having any tricks up his sleeve, either.

So I think this one comes down to picking Philadelphia or Kansas City.  I’m leaning towards Philadelphia, given the desire to preserve Kansas City, but I’ll open this up to the crown. Update: Given the Bradford trade, I think that takes the Eagles out of the running. However, the Bears/Texans line has jumped from -4.5 to -6.

Good-looking week 2 games: Arizona hosting Tampa Bay, Carolina hosting San Francisco. Those are the clear favorites for next week, but that won’t impact week 1 selections. The Lions (hosting Tennessee) could be a smart play, as that may be the most attractive matchup on the Detroit schedule all year.