Every week, I publish my college football ratings for FBS teams. To generate those ratings – using this methodology — my program also generates ratings for non-FBS team.  So let’s take a look at the ratings through twelve weeks for all non-FBS teams. After posting the ratings, I’m going to dip my toe into the Butler/Marist debate. As always, thanks to Dr. Peter Wolfe for providing the final scores for every college football game.

I received the following e-mail Sunday morning from a Marist fan:

Hi Chase. I’ve got a question about the SRS that you publish every week on your site. Is this the official SRS used by the NCAA, one that is often used in tiebreaker situations. I’m asking because the SRS was proposed as the tiebreaker for the Pioneer Football League, but they seemingly changed this at the last minute because they said that a) it wasn’t publicly available, and b) it rewarded teams for playing more games (those that played 10 games were almost by default ahead of those that played 9).

In looking at your site and rankings, this does not seem to be the case. And as they have shifted this at the last minute to something that I don’t believe is relevant (or in any way statistically valid), I think this will effectively steal a playoff spot from Marist and give it to Butler. [Chase note: In last week’s rankings, Butler was two slots ahead of Marist, but in the week 12 rankings, Marist is now slightly ahead of Butler.]

Any clarification on this (and the methodology) would be incredibly helpful, and could actually effect some decision making.

Let’s be clear: there is nothing “official” about the SRS that I publish. I have no idea if certain levels of football use a similar version to the SRS in an official capacity, but I have nothing to do with it. And as for the 9/10 games question, no, the SRS is not biased in favor of teams that play more games.

Now about that specific Marist/Butler problem? I’ll let the Pioner Football League’s website frame the issue:

ST. LOUIS, Mo. – Butler University and Marist College each claimed a share of the 2013 Pioneer Football League title, Saturday. However, the league’s automatic qualifier to the Division I Football Championship will be determined later under the tiebreaking criteria.
…
For the first time, the PFL will receive an automatic qualifying spot to the Division I Football Championship, which starts Nov. 30 at eight school sites to be determined. However, Butler and Marist will have to wait to see which team will receive the league’s berth under the tiebreaking criteria.

The league will announce its automatic qualifier through a release that also will be posted on the league’s website, http://www.pioneer-football.org.

Both teams went 7-1 in conference this year, with Butler finishing 9-3 and Marist 8-3. Out of conference, Butler lost to Dartmouth and South Dakota State, while Marist lost to Bucknell and Sacred Heart (Butler also beat Wittenberg and Franklin out of conference, while Marist beat Georgetown). The two teams are practically tied in the SRS, with Marist at 119 (thanks to a 13.2 MOV and a -2.9 SOS) and Butler at 124 (8.6 MOV and 1.0 SOS, thanks to facing South Dakota State).

Here is a look at the single-game SRS scores for each school:

Both Marist and Butler lost to San Diego, the best team in the PFL. However, the Toreros are ineligible due to offering improper scholarships, placing us in our current predicament. So how do we break the 7-1 deadlock at the top of the conference?

There is no fair way, of course. Ideally, the two teams would play each other to determine the winner. But since we must split hairs, which way should the dominoes fall? In conference games, Marist had an average SRS of 12.3, while Butler’s rating drops to just 8.3. That leans in favor of Marist. On the other hand, the higher SRS rating is entirely due to Marist’s big edge in Margin of Victory, as Butler had the harder SOS (-4.5 to -6.6).

Both teams played San Diego, Dayton, Jacksonville, Campbell, Stetson, and Valparaiso. That means the only non-common in-conference games were Butler facing Drake and Morehead State, and Marist facing Mercer and Davidson. Drake is the best team of that bunch, and Davidson the worst, so if you want to break the tie in favor of SOS, Butler should get the nod.

On the other hand, if you want to break the tie in favor of SRS — especially in-conference SRS — then you’d have to pick Marist as champion. Against the three best conference teams both teams faced — San Diego, Drayton, and Jacksonville — Marist fared better. Against San Diego, Marist lost by 2 on the road, compared to the 42-14 shellacking Butler experienced.

There’s no right answer, but I’d say SOS narrowly favors Butler, while Marist has probably been the better team.